Saturday, February 24, 2007


Three Requests


First from airtaximan, an Eclipse model for frank castle, available on ebay.
Second, from a reader venturing a non-legal opinion on the Eclipse attempt to collect the 60% progress payments out of the next block (units 200-400) of position holders (notice, I never call them owners).
Well, since no real lawyers seem to want to respond to claudeb, let me take a stab at it: it is hard for me to imagine how Eclipse could cause themselves any legal liability by simply telling the truth as best they can. To the extent that statements (rather than actions) could cause Eclipse legal liabilities their biggest exposure, I think, would be if someone could successfully bring an action for fraud against them.
As I understand it, fraud is a high standard to prove: fraud only occurs when one makes statements that one knows to be false and those statements induce someone to incur a loss. Selling the same airplane twice would be fraud. Selling an airplane for delivery six months from now, if you have an internal schedule that you believe will result in that delivery, is not fraud, even if you actually end up being late.
Promising to deliver 400 airplanes when there are only 200 engines scheduled for delivery by the end of the year, might get to be a problem.
In the investment world, the law provides a "get out of jail free" card. Whenever a company provides information about their future plans they add a boilerplate "forward looking statements" section that says that things might not turn out they way they plan. This protects them unless the statements in question were known to be lies and were asserted simply to get people to buy or hold the companies stock.
Of course, one can bring an action against anyone for any reason you want. In Eclipse's case, I think they increase their liability for such actions by failing to correct public statements that have turned out to not be true. If I were the plaintiff I would argue that once Eclipse knew that its previous statements were false, failure to correct them constituted fraud. I would have to also show that I depended on such statements in good faith and that that dependence caused me a loss.
Of course I would expect that in most cases Eclipse could easily settle any such suit by returning the deposit or delivering the plane.
But I am not a lawyer and Eclipse doesn't seem to be looking to me for advice.
Third request, links pertinent to the Avidyne situation:
The scoop came from CharterX, eat your heart out Capt. Zoom:
Another reader suggests Eclipse may have found a replacement and offered the following:
It looks like Eclipse is planning on using Crossbow for their AHRS vendor.
It's interesting to note that last year people building experimental aircraft (RV-10 amongst others) using Chelton glass panels had numerous problems with a Crossbow produced AHRS. Direct-2 Avionics (Chelton's retailer to the experimental market) ended up paying to replace theCrossbow units with Pinpoint AHRS. Probably not the same model as Eclipse is using but the comments that there was no faith that Crossbow would get their design problems sorted out are telling.).
Here is a link to some of those problems:

92 comments:

airtaximan said...

Stan:

I like my ebay listing of the e-500...it was not from the Phillipines, it was from ABQ...

can you post the ebay page I emailed you...

BTW, do you have any indsight into my questions regarding the Avidyne situation?

Old Troll said...

Let's have a contest. Who can come closest to guessing the spin that Vern puts on the Avidyne departure?

Here's my guess:
"In an effort to provide an even more revolutionary aircraft, we have decided to improve the avionics to the "C" model. You'll still get your "A" model, but don't worry. We'll upgrade it for free. Just send in your money."

Stan Blankenship said...

atm,

Check you emails, blogspot won't let me post a .ppt extension.

Tell me what the item is and I will try to put it up.

Anyway, Frank was looking for a Philippine model because an ABQ E-500 won't fit in his cubicle.

On the Avidyne situation, I'm hoping someone reading the blog can fill in the details. More questions here than answers.

gadfly said...

Next time the "CFO" of the "local paper" comes to visit, I'll ask him about their genius reporter, "Jim McKlain" (Journal Staff Writer, “extra ordinaire”). Whoever (whomever?) he is, his writing skills are excellent, and he certainly has his hand on the pulse of "Eclipse Aviation". For whatever reason, his "late breaking story" didn't get printed on all editions, at least not the issue that came to my mail-box.

By the way, in all fairness, the local publishers are extremely fair, and will make no statements that will inflict any harm on the “little jet”. They are very careful in what they print . . . just for the record. In fact, they have “bent over backwards” to report the “best” of news concerning this endeavor.

But the story reported on this website had every earmark of being "for real" . . . the timing may be off by a few months . . . time will tell. 'Even had me fooled, until I checked. As Frank Castle said: "Oh what a hoot !" . . . that says it all.

(The “dead give-a-way” was the word, “preverbal” (proverbial) . . . spell checker would have caught it, especially an article in the largest newspaper in New Mexico. “Criminals” always make a mistake . . . but this one is “forgiven”.)
Did I mention? . . . the local publishers fly "Lear"? . . . a dinosaur, for sure, but somehow it struggles from place to place, and so far has gone in and out of a few places without too much trouble. Any passenger on the Lear, with good eyesight, can see, on rare occasions ( a couple miles below), the profile of a little jet attempting to become "certified". It breaks the monotony of an otherwise un-eventful flight.

And we “locals” have nothing to gain, and something to lose, if and when the “little jet” goes down the tube.

gadfly

bill e. goat said...

Um, maybe we are jumping the gun a bit on the third AHRS item. It certainly isn't good news, but it seems it would only affect the air taxi guys (ahem), but if they can still get some jets for crew training, and maybe it won't be a big deal, if it is resolved by summer.
I can see Eclipse ditching Avidyne, or buying them- that is an interesting idea, and probably would be a good long-term acquisition. But in the short term, it would probably would not result in any particular expedient.
A switch of avionics vendors would probably take about 12 to 15 months (unless it has already been in-work; then, maybe 6 to 8 months- given the abysmal lack of planning and in-house development work on the present avionics suite, I would doubt any substantial progress along these lines has been made, although I wouldn't be surprised to hear bold, noisy proclamations along those lines). I would expect Eclipse to deliver some Avidyne-equipped airplanes with restricted functionality during this period of hypothetical rework.
I would think it would be better to keep flogging Avidyne, rather than switch vendors right now- maybe offer the Garmin as an option down the road.

Frank Castle said...

Seriously, I wanted a Mustang desk model. Thought about taking a CJ and modifying it....

My life wouldn't be worth spit if I were to put an E500 out in the open !! Ha Ha !

But, I might be brave enough to try.....;^P

Frank Castle said...

Well, it's a toss up, 'tween the DayJet paint scheme, or the original orange and black stripes.

The dayJet model might be more collectible, since that 'lil deal ain't gonna happen.

DayJet Item number: 120059359906

Original Item number: 120039373820

And the propaganda is included in the listing !! "Ain't that special ?"

Frank Castle said...

But here's my fave.....Item number: 120087491608

Why should Leland Snow have all the fun ? We could be building new Ag Trucks at Indy. Build 'em bigger and better than Air Tractor.

Yea, we could do that.....

bill e. goat said...

Check out the nice Avidyne.com webiste. A tab at the top lists "aircraft": Adam, Cirrus, Columbia, Piper. No Eclipse. Maybe it never did, pending certification. (Opps, I forgot, E-500 is already certified). Maybe just some showmanship between Avidyne and Eclipse?...
I'd go with the orange and black stripes!

airtaximan said...

Eclipse Aviation is Please to Announce Avionics Progress.

Since certification in mid-2006 Eclipse aviation has made tremendous progress on all aspects of the E-500 revolutionary VLJ. In December, we began customer deliveries. In February, we flew the modified jet non-stop from ABQ to Orlando, demonstrating the guaranteed range. Payload as guaranteed has been proven as well for the B model. We are very proud of all the hard work by the employees at Eclipse.

One area which was not behind schedule, but also not progressing quickly enough, is the Avionics by Avidyne. In order to exceed our customers’ expectations regarding quality and reliability, we decided to make a bold move and change avionics suppliers.

Vern Raburn stated: “I want to be perfectly clear that the switch from Avidyne will make progress quicker, according to Eclipse’s supply chain management department. In the end, the E500 will be a much better plane with the new avionics supplier on board”.

According to Andrew Broom, Eclipse customers are really the one’s pushing for this change. Broom states that Eclipse has already had 15 requests since Avidyne went public with the developments, only two days ago.

Eclipse would not state when the E-500 with the new avionics will be delivered. It would only conclude that this is not a complete re-certification of the aircraft, and the plane, with complete functioning avionics will be delivered earlier than had Avidyne remained the supplier. No mention of who the new avionics supplier will be, only that there are a number of world-class supplier vying for the place on the E-500, and selection will be made soon.

David Crowe and Randall Sandana were avilable for comment and stated: "we love the plane and commend Eclipse for making the switch. The E500 C model will be even better. We're excited."

Stan Blankenship said...

atm,

I'm sitting here scratching my head.

Your supposed "release" from Eclipse does not show up on the E website.

Capt. Zoom has not put up anything yet.

It leaves me with three possibilities:

1. You have as inside source at Eclipse.

2. You are interviewing for Andrew Broom's job with this brilliant sugarcoat of the Aviadyne debacle.

3. You are laying claim to metalguy's Oscar award for best satirical piece.

airtaximan said...

Stan,
door number 3

Thanks for the compliment - you made my day

BTW, Broom's job = last job on earth

Metal Guy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Niner Zulu said...

The Owners Forum at the Eclipse website is starting to sound more and more like this blog.

One owner suggested "... we should group together and demand answers before 60% of our money transfers to an unproven company without reasonable expectations to deliver aircraft. It is very clear now that Eclipse has very little regard for the customers and the consideration which has been placed into their account".

And as to why no other planes have been released under the COA process, another suggested "clearly the FAA is unhappy about something".

It appears that the deposit holders are now...finally...coming to their senses and realizing that what IS is a lot different than the PR they have been fed for the past 6 years.

Gunner said...

You guys!
I go off hunting for a few days and all hell breaks loose.

Let's get serious about this Avidyne deal. It is so embedded in the fiber, core and engineering design of the Eclipse that a split is more than monumental.

As to Vern "buying" Avidyne? Not a chance in hell. No way Avidyne is gonna take Eclipse stock in a sale. And, given the fact that Eclipse is trying to suck more unrealistic advances out of its Depositors, I highly doubt they have the cash for a purchase.

Besides, what would Eclipse gain by buying Avidyne? Does anyone REALLY believe that Avidyne just couldn't deliver on its contract? I don't. Avidyne has not gotten where it has by technical incompetence. That's Eclipse's claim to fame, IN SPITE OF the work of some very dedication people, due to unrealistic demands from the top.

There have been many predictions on this Blog from Bamba, Paul and others. Their track record has been pretty darned good. I made one also. Back in December, I predicted that Avidyne would be the next PR casualty in the Eclipse story; that they would split and that this would be accompanied by the sound of the wheels coming off this endeavor.

I still hold that position. No way that Eclipse can recover form this news, if it is, in fact, true. Look for a lawsuit, quite possibly, because it gives Vern a good story to tell to those who REALLY ant to believe anyway. That may buy him some time. But this company, under its present management? Stick a fork in it, if Avidyne has dropped out. It's Done.

Hey, where's EB and Ken when you really need 'em for inside info? I suspect we'll not be seeing much of them until Vern provides the proper story line.
Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

I have been thinking alot about this lately. The numbers do not only NOT add up, they also are not agreed on by anyone.

This is from one of the articles on the Eclipse website, spekaing about VLJ's.

"The FAA predicts 4,500 will go into service in the next 10 years; NASA projects 20,000 by 2010."

So according to the FAA it is 450 per year - across all manufacturers.

According to NASA it is 20,000 airplanes in less than 3 years, or almost 7,000 airplanes per year. This is obviously a number going back a few years I bet.

According to Honeywell, it will be 250 per year across all manufacturers.

According to Rolls Royce, it will be 8000 airplanes over 20 years, or 400 per year across all manufacturers.

According to Pratt & Whitney, it will produce 600 PW615's, only enough for 300 airframes, assuming no spare engines.

Eclipse claims it will deliver 500 aircraft this year alone (which is now 15% gone).

In no other segment of aviation is there such a wide variety of predictions, literally from 250 per year to several thousand.

Why the confusion? One reason, Eclipse itself. Some of these entities, the FAA, and the engine makers and avionics suppliers themselves have finally seen the man behind the curtain and aren't drinking the kool-aid anymore.

Only Eclipse is out suggesting that a single company will deliver a thousand or more aircraft per year in this class. A story that is not even supported by several of their own suppliers (that is, the suppliers that remain).

A 'position-holder' revolt huh Niner-Zulu? Even Thomas Jefferson said a little revolution every now and then was a good thing.

I say it is about freaking time and the ONLY way to save this program.

airtaximan said...

cwmr,

remember Vern's prophetic (read pathetic) words...

"this is disruptive technology...no one can precit how many of these planes will be produced, because no one can predict how they will be used"

Talk about a load of crapola.

My bet is the e-500-million will be used as a plane, for personal/family use. This market is 799 or so per year, for all jets, of anyt price, accross the board. 12 airframers divide the pie, and double it for lower prices (still the Malibu sales do not compare at around the same price), and you have perhaps 1500 per year at full rate. Not to be seen until August - seriously, not to be seen for a few years, for sure.

If anyone wants to believe Vern has a plane that can be used en mass for another purpose....I would disagree. Even the jet market for taxis is TOTAL 2000 airplanes since whenever they were built. OK there are 10,000 props out there providing taxi service, but dreaming they will be displaced by e-clips is a joke.

NEW market for the disruptive V-jet? paperweights? Lawn ornaments?

any ideas?

Its a joke...

bill e. goat said...

Gunner's right about Avidyne. They have sold 1000+ shipsets of integrated avionics, so they must be doing something right. And, as deep as the Eclipse well is, I don't think they could swing an acquisition right now. And "Eclipse stock" is too speculative for any company to accept as payment, to put it mildly. (I heard a couple of years ago it was postulated to hit IPO at $600, anyone heard recent guestimates?).
As the program arrives at this latest conjuncture, it would seem a convenient scenerio might be:

1) Eclipse diverts program management failures by blaming Avidyne (some more).
2) Eclipse sues Avidyne, and brings in, say $200 mil.
3) Eclipse spends nine months refitting with Garmin.
4) Airframe bugs are worked out. Windshields get fixed, etc, etc.
5) Drag reduction mods get tweaked in.
6) Production line and QA process snags are debugged.
7) Fatigue testing is completed (does anyone even know if it has started?)
8) Simulators get built, and training program begins.
9) Customer service centers get built and staffed.
10) Big roll out for the NBAA in the fall, proclaiming, "Well, we never really wanted to do the air taxi thing anyway- we love you biz-av guys!"

This is just speculation, unfortunately, because in reality, this would probably be a good thing for everyone involved. Except Avidyne (and Williams, and...). I hope for the patient owners-in-waiting, good things happen either way.

EclipseBlogger said...

Gunner said... Stick a fork in it, if Avidyne has dropped out. It's Done.

Hey, where's EB and Ken when you really need 'em for inside info? I suspect we'll not be seeing much of them until Vern provides the proper story line.


I'm still here. Without Avidyne it's not done, not over. Can't and won't reply though until more news/response is made public. It's not all that bad. But, you'll just say it's the Kool-Aid talking. Stay tuned...

airtaximan said...

EB,

Glad your not in ICU. Whew!

Not that bad...OK...you got my attention...how come?

I can imagine a few scenarios where it might not be curtains, but its pretty bad, no?

Metal Guy said...

If the new avionics provider is a drop-in, as suggested, it will most likely be either Chelton or SmartDeck. I can’t imagine that Garmin has the manpower or desire to do a custom program like this. Either way you cut it, this is a massive tear-up and re-certification effort. 8 to 12 months in my book - regardless of how much they will claim that they have been working behind the scenes. Probably worse if it’s SmartDeck, given their abysmal track record. Perhaps the only ones willing to buy into a something as squirrelly as the Eclipse model?

Ok, here is my guess: SmartDeck and 14 months.

EclipseBlogger said...

I guess the news is coming fatser than I expected...

Recently, a lesser known publication, CharterX, reported that Eclipse and Avidyne were “winding down” their relationship. While the timing and course of this announcement is not what we desired, I want to let you know that Eclipse Aviation and Avidyne have indeed decided to terminate their relationship. Avidyne will no longer supply components for the Avio Total Aircraft Integration system in the Eclipse 500. We have agreed it is in the mutual best interest of both companies, and most importantly our customers, to end our relationship and go our separate ways.


I am happy to assure you that this change will have no affect on Eclipse 500 production or delivery. All near-term customer aircraft will have the Avidyne components installed, and we will be retrofitting ALL these early deliveries with the new components. The exact timing of the production cut-in is currently being finalized, and we are eager to share these details with you when we announce our full Avio plan within the next two weeks.


Avio will continue to be an integral part of the Eclipse 500, and we are confident in our ability to deliver all of the promised functionality to you on an aggressive schedule. To this end, we have partnered with an impressive new team of proven, reliable suppliers to deliver Avio functionality. Our team has been working closely with this first rate group behind-the-scenes for a number of months, and has already made significant progress. We expect the change to be completely seamless for you from a standpoint of Eclipse 500 functionality, look and feel. I look forward to sharing the details of our efforts with you very soon.


Please do not call Customer Care to ask for more details at this time, they will not be able to answer your questions until our public announcement. I ask for your patience as our reasons for this timing are based on legal and contractual requirements. Again, I anticipate that we will make this exciting announcement within the next 14 days, including our detailed plan going forward.

Best regards,

Ken McNamara
VP, Customer and Product Support

Gunner said...

ROTFLMAO!!!

What was that? Was that "information"? Did that say something like, "We've decided that Avidyne cannot meet our needs. We have contracted with Company ABC to complete [fix?] the AVIO system and we are aggressively pursuing all possible remedies with Avidyne"?

OR

Did it read,
"Yeah, we'd prefer not to have told anyone just yet, but the Avidyne partnership has disintegrated like so many others. This is a damned tough business, being as avant gard as we are and having to deal with the dolts of the aviation industry. But, being as we are always ahead of the curve, we have a Plan B that will entail yet another 'retrofit' [this time of the entire Avionics Package]. It will be built by a REALLY good company. We just can't tell you who that is just now. Best of all, we haven't missed a beat in our manufacturing schedule. Don't call us, we'll call you."

If this weren't so farcical, it would almost make good slapstick. Will the next 300 depositors please stup up with your their Deposits; everyting is business as usual in ABQ. Your jets are on the way!

Seriously, when is the Owners' Group gonna stand up and be counted? You guys are owed some very REAL explanations. We ALL are.
Gunner

Jake Pliskin said...

i wonder, will this "14 days to unveil the new plan" be the first timetable eclipse has met?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

McNamara must be loving this new position.

This would be like Boeing announcing the following:

"Some publication almost nobody knows of has recently broke a story that we were not ready to share with you, our loyal customers.

The story is true, we are replacing all GE, Honeywell and Pratt engines with dlithium cyrtsal powered warp nacelles.

Although we will no longer receive the engines we used to operate with, we are very excited that the range and speed capabilities of our aircraft will be very much improved, 'cuz we said so.

We do not expect any real changes for you, I mean, engines are engines, be they hydrocarbon burngin turbine engines or warp engines, right?

And don't bother calling us to ask about any of this - just send in your progress paymendo t."

Is EB pulling our leg or is this the real deal?

I cannot even keep track anymore - but I feel somewhat vindicated.

I wonder how Ken likes his crow - probably same as Vern.

bill e. goat said...

EB !
Are you spoofing Metalguy and ATB !?!

I would not be surprised if Avidyne WANTED off the program: I would imagine their original pricing agreement with Eclipse was predicated upon volume production, the Eclipse will not meet. Maybe the "split" came over price renegotiation ??? I would hope the next supplier is pretty cautious with these folks- I think Stan might have a point...

bambazonke said...

Kenny,

I would fire up that ole 340 and haul my ass down there to the KAF and see what is going on....

Watch out though, soon as you arrive there will be a pitcher of Kool Aid waiting for you on the ramp, if you hear that all is well, this is just a little hiccup and the little wonder jets will be darkening the skies in the near future pushing up the user fees, like some of the other malcontents have been fed down here recently, know that you have over imbibed with the Kool Aid.

This is no little deal, take it from someone who knows..

Better also check with the banker and see if he is still on side whilst you are figuring your options though, this is the kind of news that has wide reaching ramifications, particularly when the head shed is walking around with bright new shiny zippers across their mouths.

Look forward to getting reading your report..

B.Z. ;-0

Ken Meyer said...

Bambi wrote,
"I would fire up that ole 340 and haul my ass down there to the KAF and see what is going on...."


Actualy, Bambi, I've been to Albuquerque fairly regularly over the last 14 months.

When was the last time you visited the Eclipse factory to see for yourself what is going on? I think it would add something to your posts if they were backed by a little more actual knowledge.

And perhaps you could take Gunner with you. His comment about Avidyne ("It is so embedded in the fiber, core and engineering design of the Eclipse that a split is more than monumental"), regrettably, shows an amazing lack of understanding of the aircraft avionics architecture.

I view the departure of Avidyne as a positive development, and I believe that view is shared by a fair number of people reasonably knowledgeable about the project.

Ken

EclipseBlogger said...

This is something that's been in work for some time. Eclipse is not starting out fresh from scratch with the new supplier. I don't see this as any more of a delay than waiting for Avidyne to finish the job. In fact the full functionality may actually get done sooner than waiting for Avidyne. The only one worse than Eclipse on meeting schedules has been Avidyne. They had been promising functionality for over a year now, missing date after date. (Don't jump all over me for that statement. I don't offer it as excuse for Eclipse, just as a statement that the new supplier may actually finish the job)

Gunner said...

Ken-
Eclipse website says, "The cutting-edge Avio system provides the Eclipse 500™ jet with advanced safety, reliability, and functionality using technology found in the world’s most advanced military aircraft and the newest commercial jet airliners."

Ken claims Avidyne is not a critical component in this technology. (I guess it's been Eclipse that's been providing avionics to all those "jet fighters and the newest jet airlines" all along. Avidyne was simply a front for their genius.)

Bottom line of the Spin Machine- Ken said:
"I view the departure of Avidyne as a positive development"

Do tell. Why is Avidyne's departure a "positive development"? Is it because Vern didn't know what he was doing when he designed the jet with Avidyne avionics but suddenly knows what he's doing now? Is it because Eclipse is gonna take this project in-house and it'll make the jet more reliable? Safer? Faster? Will they be going into the De-Ice business next?

You do these drive-by posts, completely devoid of substance or even basic common sense, and actually believe you're helping Eclipse with the potential buyers and investors lurking on this board?

Time to put up more than deposit money, Ken. How 'bout some substance? Just why is Avidyne's departure "a positive development"?
Gunner

Gunner said...

EB-
Correct me if I'm wrong:
AVIO was not designed as a stand-alone avionics package. It is a proprietary, customized package, based on Avidyne software.

Now that we've pulled the underlying software (operating system, if you will) out of the package, just how is it that development is gonna be "faster"? AVIO is, after all, little more than a wish list of functionalities and feedback loops. The hardware/software HowTo's were on Avidyne's plate.

Just as important, are we to believe, yet AGAIN, that a tried and tested Aviation Supplier is the problem? I've lost count of the number of successful vendors who were found "deficient" by the company that gave us David Crowe's little wonder-jet.
Gunner

bambazonke said...

Ken,

With respect to my trip to ABQ, I might just be closer to there than you think??

For all the positive that comes out of ABQ with these customer visits, do you really think that you are getting the truth? Do you think that because you are not told during these visits about events that pop up on this board that they did not happen?

How about Dan McElroy, isn't he supposed to be your (position holder) rep, when was the last time he got information out of any official at EAC? When was the last time the KKA himself answered any of his e-mails? The reason the answer to these questions is "a long time has passed" is that EAC does not want you to know how badly things are going or you would have communication. Have you ever known KKA to pass up the opportunity to preach about good news? This is the same KKA who a couple of months ago self proclaimed that EAC was "kicking Cessna's butt".

If the communication has broken down to the level that EAC are not communicating with the position holder group then don't think because you see tons of aluminum on the production line and smiling faces that all is well. For Heaven sake, they won't even announce who the new supplier for their avionics is, but yet at the same time they say that this would not effect functionality, do you really believe that? How far advanced is the relationship with the new supplier if on the one hand they can confidently announce no change, and in the next breath say that they cannot tell you who they are? The relationship with the 'new guys' needs to be a bit further along, before these wild statements about how well everything is going to be again in the land of OZ.

Remember the post about DME not functioning, you were adamant that it was working, maybe this is one of the fall out issues????

EclipseBlogger said...

Gunner said... Correct me if I'm wrong. AVIO was not designed as a stand-alone avionics package. It is a proprietary, customized package, based on Avidyne software.

No, you are correct. But, Avidyne is not AVIO. The Avidyne portion of the complete AVIO system has more to do with the user interface than anything else that can't be replaced. Avidyne provides much of the basic function of the Entegra, modified for Eclipse, in addition to receiving the user interface to the main system computers. There are several external boxes other than the PFD and MFD. Also much of the software that makes AVIO unique is transportable. If a new supplier comes along and can adjust their hardware to use existing signal busses, the Avidyne hardware is no longer all that unique and can be replaced.

Gunner said... Now that we've pulled the underlying software (operating system, if you will) out of the package, just how is it that development is gonna be "faster"?

Avidyne has been sucking mud for quite some time now trying to get parts fully functional and certifiable. Give schedule delays of Eclipse (engine and production), Avidyne should not have had problems completing on time. The truth may never come out as to whose fault it was, or what the problems were, but we can surely guess that this was not a one sided failure. Given the amount of development that has taken place, and hopefully a fully completed spec is now defined, a new vendor with the proper skill-set and existing hardware could conceivably finish faster than Avidyne, whose heart just wasn't in it as of late.

Gunner said... Just as important, are we to believe, yet AGAIN, that a tried and tested Aviation Supplier is the problem?

Answered above.

airtaximan said...

get serious folks,

- we've been working on this a lot longer than you might think...BUT we won't tell you who the supplier is - why the heck not? Answer: I guess you really have not been working on this that long.
- so...E-clips really has no clue who is stepping up, and how this is really going to work.
- so...E-clips really does not know what the total slip is going to be.

Here's more Propoganda..from your best friend and mine - cap'n zoom

Divorced: Eclipse And Avidyne Part Ways
Mon, 26 Feb '07
No Effect on Eclipse 500 Production or Delivery
While it may come as no surprise to a great many people following the intensive development of the Eclipse 500 VLJ, ANN can now divulge something that has been in the works for a while... the "divorce" of Eclipse Aviation and Avidyne.
According to sources close to Eclipse, "Avidyne will no longer supply components for the Avio Total Aircraft Integration system in the Eclipse 500. We have agreed it is in the mutual best interest of both companies, and our customers, to wind-down our relationship and go our separate ways.
"This change has no affect on Eclipse 500 production or delivery. All near-term customer aircraft will have the Avidyne components installed, and Eclipse will be retrofitting these early deliveries with the new components. The exact timing of the production cut-in is currently being finalized.
"Avio will continue to be an integral part of the Eclipse 500, and we are confident in our ability to deliver all of the promised functionality to our customers on an aggressive schedule. To this end, we have partnered with an impressive new team of proven, reliable suppliers to deliver Avio functionality. Our team has been working closely with this group behind-the-scenes for a number of months, and has already made significant progress. We expect the change to be seamless for our customers from a standpoint of Eclipse 500 functionality, look and feel."
ANN has been working this story for a while and will have more information shortly. Official announcements about the identity and capability of replacement suppliers for the Eclipse 500 Flight Deck are expected to be released within 2 weeks.

Even this guy is in on the act:
- ANN can now divulge something that has been in the works for a while... HAHAHAH! I've never seen a reporter actually bolster a company's position on something before, by claiming they've been working a story for a while. This is hilarious.

OK, lets assume its true, for laughs. EXPLAIN THIS: If the reporter knows this "for a while" (hoe long is this, since Friday when Avidyne told charterx?), how come the depositors don't know this yet?

Pathetic.

EclipseBlogger said...

Cabbie, wait for the announcement from Eclipse. Your speculation could not be further from the truth on this one. Really.

airtaximan said...

I have some scoop...maybe.

Does anyone know if its possible that Avidyne had a $30 million contract for developing Eclipse's avionics (BAE had another contract for engine system controls, electrical interface, AHRS, air data computer and autopilot control panel...for $20 m plus cost plus for over runs) including electronic flight instruments, PFD and controller, MFD, communications, datalink, radio and transponder. Just to be clear on who is doing what to whom - if this is correct.

I've been told that Avidyne is owed a 50% payment which they deferred since 2002 timeframe - and it was due upon issuance of FAA type certification of the aircraft. So, its was due - I wonder if it was paid? Also, Avidyne owns an equity position in Eclipse.

If this is true, and I am not saying it is...I wonder if anyone knows...it is very telling.

airtaximan said...

EB,
you might be right, but come on. If this has been in the works, somehow, why not let the depositors know? You can't tell me that they were both working as hard as they could to get what thyey needed, and then Boob, Eclipse mysteriously shows up with another solution. Maybe Peg Bilson pulled some HONEYWELL strings..I do not know. It just makes little sense.

- remember, Vern chose Avidyne, and if they fail to get the job done, it reflects very poorly.
- remember, this is supposed to be revolutinary stuff - how can someone else step up at this late date, and have no effect on the schedule?
- "This change has no affect on Eclipse 500 production or delivery. (this means you'll have limited functionality and our promise to have the system completed on a certain schedule is no longer our promise - we fired the company whose avionics are in your planes)
- All near-term customer aircraft will have the Avidyne components installed, and Eclipse will be retrofitting these early deliveries with the new components. (at whose cost? I will not be able to use my plane? for how long? What if I do not wnat the swap, I'll wait for the right avionics...can I do this? How does this affect my position? Did you know this for HOW long - when you demanded a further payment? Why is this not MY CHOICE? You have known this for long enoph to make progress so there is no schedule slip - why did you not tell me, when you took my money?)
- The exact timing of the production cut-in is currently being finalized. (what the bezeesus is a cut-in? Is this a retrofit, replacement, what is it going to be?

EB, perhaps you are right...but the way this has been handled makes me smell the same old stinky fish...

this has been the ol' bait n'switch.

-

Gunner said...

EB said:
"Avidyne has been sucking mud for quite some time now trying to get parts fully functional and certifiable. Give schedule delays of Eclipse (engine and production), Avidyne should not have had problems completing on time. The truth may never come out as to whose fault it was, or what the problems were, but we can surely guess that this was not a one sided failure."

As I thought. Eclipse got screwed again by a worldwide supplier that will be in business long after Vern gets the Aviation Clown Award.

OR

Could it be that Eclipse has been playing so foot-loose with design specs and progress payments and Avidyne has had to restart from scratch so many times that they finally gave up? Nah, just not possible, given how perfectly the other Eclipse development modules have gone.

Why do we even put up with companies like Avidyne? The hype, the broken promises, the outright lies...how could anybody miss the pattern. ;-)


Interesting coincidence, though, that Avidyne bowed out at the same time as Zodiac for the deice boots, no?

EB said:
"If a new supplier comes along and can adjust their hardware to use existing signal busses, the Avidyne hardware is no longer all that unique and can be replaced."
Yep. And if your could fit an Mercedes engine into a Taurus, the result would be no different than an S500.

You have to be kidding, right? Do you really believe Garmin software, for instance, is easily transportable to third party hardware, simply by properly "signaling" some buses?

The human ego is truly an amazing thing to watch when it runs up against its own Cognitive Dissonance:
"Eclipse can't be lying to me. I already paid a deposit. It MUST be Williams, Avidyne, Zodiac et al that are the culprits".

Is there a rolleyes icon anywhere around here?
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

The sad part is, the airplane could have and should have been built from proven, reliable and fully qualified off-the-shelf components.

I doubt many signed on to the program because of the whistles and bells promised by the Avio/Avidyne integration.

Eclipse could have sold just as many positions by sticking to the basics and offering guys like ken and eo387, a little jet with a low entry fee and low operating costs.

bambazonke said...

Ken and EB,

I empathize with you, it cannot be fun living through the highs and lows of the promises and time markers that amount to naught. I acknowledge your loyalty to Eclipse and think that you both make valiant attempts at keeping a stiff upper lip.

There are some questions that I would appreciate you would ask Eclipse and report back on to the blog;

1. What is the current situation with respect to SN-0001. What is functioning, what limitations does the plane have placed on it's operations? Will these limitations pass on to the aircraft will be delivered in the Avidyne configuration? Have them provide you the paper work on this, not the ABQ spin..

2. EAC promised that within days of the flight from ABQ to GNV that they would have the data for everyone to examine, where is this data? Don't let them redefine the method of accomplishing the range with 'data points'.

3. What is the status of the De Ice system? Is it true that an Eclipse asked for 'descent out of icing conditions' during the testing, and is it true the supplier of the system has been replaced? What kind of a delay is this realistically going to cause?

4. With respect to Avidyne, how much of the work that was accomplished belongs to Eclipse, even though they allegedly haven't been paid? What portions of the systems provided by Avidyne were the result of TC's already owned by Avidyne? Will the replacement Company have the ability to use any of the Avidyne work product? Will the new Company have to certify any of their work?

5. Realistically what is the delay as a result of the departure of the two latest vendors who have fallen by the wayside?

6. Will Eclipse revise their policy of calling for the 6 month progress payments?

7. Will Eclipse consider offering the position holders their money back and allow them to back out of the program?

8. What is the current status of the agreement with United? Is it true that this relationship has not advanced?

9. How much truth is there in the rumor that there are braking issues on the aircraft, resulting in blown tires on landing?

Just a few of the questions that come to mind...I am sure that others could give you a few more..

Jake Pliskin said...

just a curious question for the diehards here: if this news is not enough to cause you alarm, what will it take? or are you set to see it through regardless?

airtaximan said...

Stan:
"The sad part is, the airplane could have and should have been built from proven, reliable and fully qualified off-the-shelf components."

This is so true, its crazy..BUT, it must be explained. These E-clips guys are not idiots, so why the cutting edge whiz-bang stuff?

a few thigns come to mind:
1- the plane was not designed as a robust taxi to be flown thousands of hours per year by PROFESSIONSAL commercial pilots. It was an owner-flown family airplane, and NEEDED added avionics functionality to mitigate the problem of low time pilots flying jets. This is just a fact. The "design" criteria drove the functionality of the avionics which needed to make the plane very easy to fly and safe for low time pilots.
- FSW was designed to attract unsuspecting investors with the promise of low cost, high rate.
- Williams engines, once tauted as the enabler for the whole product, was designed for low weight to thrust, not durability. This may have been OK for the private pilot. It worked for unsuspecting investors.

My take - avio was appropriate for the market, private prop pilots transitioning to a jet. It may have been needed for safety and to make low time pilots (and their wives) comfortable with moving to a jet. Was their an easier, lower cost way to get to avionics for a professionally flown taxi - of course.

Its all about the design criteria. The private pilot market led to AVIO...the air taxi market would have led to Collins, Honeywell, or Garmin.

BTW, the taxi market can support a little more cost up front, for increased duribility and better reliability....bad trade, unless of course, the plpane was NOT designed for taxi.

gadfly said...

Some thoughts concerning the loyalty of Eclipse customers, and the future of the “little jet”:
As a kid, I was taught a little saying:
“A man convinced against his will, Is of the same opinion, still!”
Back in those days when “pterodactyls” ruled the skies, a little two place plane called the “Ercoupe” (Engineering and Research Corporation) first flew the year I was born. It was an attempt to be the “aircraft for all seasons” . . . in a sense it was similar to the “Eclipse”. It was moderately (should I say, “modestly”) successful, because it was “limited” in its claims . . . went through the war (WWII for you young kids), went through a name change to “Aicoupe”, (Although I remembered it as “Aercoupe”) and other owners . . . eventually over 200 were built . . . and it was a “friendly” little plane (provided it was not “pushed” too far), and took its place in history. I even made a model of it one time . . . ten cents for the balsa wood kit, rubber band powered. My little Stinson Voyager and Lockheed P-80 flew much better.
“Eclipse” has some of the flavor of that earlier plane, (the “Ercoupe”,) . . . wanting so much to make a “statement”, and in a way it will. For better or worse, “It Will!”
Concerning a few of the present problems, many seem to be a matter of “marketing” and the perception that most problems can be solved with modern science, and our faith in “electronics” and “reliable software”. So, I decided to apply my limited skills, in an effort to be of assistance. Borrowing from the everyday onslaught of the marketing of everything from drugs to automobiles to beer, with the “macho” image, I thought of the latest in the problems of Eclipse, as various vendors and suppliers have turned traitor.
For instance:
Here’s “Eclipse” own words concerning “Avio” (and I quote directly from their website):
“The cutting-edge Avio system provides the Eclipse 500™ jet with advanced safety, reliability, and functionality using technology found in the world’s most advanced military aircraft and the newest commercial jet airliners. Avio significantly reduces pilot workload by simplifying tasks, generating information, managing systems, and assisting troubleshooting. Digital technology combined with Avio’s redundant system architecture increases Eclipse 500 reliability. That means less time on the ground and more time where the Eclipse 500 jet belongs—in the air.”
Solution:
The current problems are merely an opportunity to expand sales and functionality with a entrepreneurial system, combining the best of “Avidyne” and “Garmin”, called “Aviagarmidyne”.

With “Aviagarmidyne” in your system, “Once up, it stays up!”

Now, that will renew the interest of most of their customers . . . guaranteed!

gadfly

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Dateline February 26, 2007 - Albuquerque, NM - CWMOR Reporting

This just in, Eclipse to say goodbye to aluminum.

"We just need something that can meet our aggressive development, err, re-development, err, re-re-re-development schedule and we believe that Graphite Reinforced Plastic is the right thing to do for us, for aluminimum, and for our customers." said Eclipse Spokesman Andrew Boom.

As we at the KAR (Kool-Aid Review) have known for some time, Eclipse was not happy with the aluminum structure of its airplane, given the complete absence of drama or problems, especially since so many other boring, long-lived and successful aircraft are made out of this decidedly non-sexy material.

"We have a great new team of suppliers that we have been secretly working with behind the scenes since 2005, you might think changing the basic structure of the aircraft would result in delays but I am here to say there should be no effect on delivery schedules, or my name is not Orville Redenbacher." said Eclipse President and EIEIO Vern Raburn, with an odd all-knowing smirk.

"The changeover to an all composite airframe will occur at some point in the future, and we will retrofit every aircraft delivered before the changeover, at our expense. This should only take a couple days to a week at any of our two service centers. We are very excited about the benefits this change will bring to our customers." said Eclipse VP Customer Support Ken McNamara.

In a comnpletely unrelated story, the entire staff of the Fort Worth FAA MIDO office appear to have come down with Polonium 210 radiation poisoning, similar to that which killed former KGB Officer Alexander Litvinenko in France late last year.

In a step to 'help' Eclipse garner it's much needed Production Certificate, Marion Blakey stopped dancing on the graves of the General Aviation community with the Airlines, intoxicated with the promise of 'shared burden' user fees - just long enough to announce that the FAA has decided to just take it all on faith and IOU's, clearing the way for full-rate production of the Eclipse 500 A, B, C, and now D through an official FAA Policy Letter dubbed AC-Duhhhh-Dee-De-Dee - Eclipse Revenue Protection Guidance.

Production and delivery of the first 1,552 aircraft (in 1,742 distinct configurations) is 'imminent' according to Eclipse officials.

Real estate values in and around the Eclipse production flight test areas have apparently collapsed for an as yet undertermined but purely coincidental reason.

he he he

gadfly said...

Cold Wet Sardines

You been munchin’ on salmon eggs with the lids “askew”, aint ‘cha! I tol’ ya’ ta’ leave the smelly ones alone . . . but you neva lissen’. ‘Them things do bad things to yo brain. Now yo done gone and foun’ out dat I was not kidden’.

‘Yo messin’ wid me brain, ain’t yo’, you little sardine, and I ain’t goin’ tolerate it, no how! . . . Yo unnerstand? . . . yo disrespectful punk kid! I’ll get yo’ yet . . . I’ll track you down and give you a wuppin that you “Mama” should have given yo years ago.

And maybe not, since yo seem to have a handle on this here aerodrome device, sort of thing . . . mechanical things that go a thousand miles and more, pushin’ air behind them by burnin’ kerosene, and carrying five, six people eight miles up in the air, safely arriving at their destination . . . and payin’ for the privilege, and expectin’ to get home safe and sound a night or two later . . . yo’ might be dreamin’ . . . but “dream on”. This old world needs a fairy tale now and then. They seem to have totally rejected reality.

gadfly

Observer said...

bambazonke said...
8. What is the current status of the agreement with United? Is it true that this relationship has not advanced?

I wondered when someone would notice that Eclipse never mentions United in their training material.

Approximately 4 weeks ago United pulled out. The relationship had been deteriorating for a few months.

Didn't Eclipse indicate in their PR that insurance would be easier to get because of the United training? I'm not sure about this.

Green-or-Red said...

Rumor has it that about a month ago the VP of Safety, Training, and Flight Operations was promoted to a Senior Fellow, similar to what they did to Masefield when Engineering got blamed for all the delays a few years ago. This VP probably was instrumental in negotiating contracts with United as he was a United Pilot for 35 years. Being promoted to this Senior Fellow position is kind of like being put out to pasture......mooo mooo.

Frank Castle said...

"You have to be kidding, right? Do you really believe Garmin software, for instance, is easily transportable to third party hardware, simply by properly "signaling" some buses?"

Without going into proprietary details, and this area isn't my expertise anyhow.

BS. Plain and simple. You don't take any "part" of the system and replace it,(especially the software) just by signaling the busses, bonehead. Sorry, but my buddies in the Sparkie Dept. would definitely disagree with you. More lies and crap from the diehards, because they don't want to admit it.

It will be close to a recert, if not all the way. No wonder the FAA walked out and said "Don't call us...we'll call you. Hope you can get it right by this time next year." They won't be back anytime soon. How the hell are deliveries supposed to take place without certified aircraft ? How can anyone who invested more than twenty dollars in this Ponzi nightmare not wonder where the buck stops ?

The reason they wouldn't be able to get anything more than a fish-finder from any reputable firm is because of the brash BS coming from ABQ. That, and the soon-to-be-apparent lack of funds.

After the Position holders get smart and finally gang up on KKA, there won't be enough to buy toilet paper.

gadfly said...

On a most serious note:

This is not a joke, nor aimed at “Eclipse”, nor any aircraft designer. It is offered to be shared with anyone, and everyone who is involved in the design of aircraft structures. It has to do with something I learned before most of you were born, but applies to modern aircraft design.

Long ago, (1959, if you must know . . . I just got out of the Submarine Service and returned to civilian life) I came across the problems of “epoxy” failure, in critical instrument devices, and I added a Nylon flexible fiber into the molded parts . . . it didn’t prevent fracture of components, but it did remove “sudden catastrophic” failure. Not long after (about 1963), I suggested it to United Airlines as a remedy to the failure of the “corners” of the container system failures, that I was observing, “first hand”, while working ramp service on the “DC-8's” (where? . . . ORD . . . working my way through flight school at Moody Bible Institute Missionary Tech Course at Moody Wood Dale Airport, two miles due west of “O’Hare Tower”). Of course, the engineering staff of UAL considered the suggestions of a mere “ramp serviceman” as being nonsense. However, the principal remains.

If anyone reading this “blog” gets the message, you might contribute to the saving of lives in the future. The “vertical fin” that came loose from the Airbus at Boston, suffered sudden failure. Had the carbon fiber included “stretchable” fibers, such as “Nylon” or “Kevlar” (Nomex . . . Arimid), the fin would have stayed in place, and many lives would have been saved. Yes, the stresses might have been “too much” for the basic structure, but there would have been enough strength left, to bring the aircraft back to Boston, and “Airbus” would not be in such a demise as it is, today. Understand: I do not like Airbus, I have absolutely zero love for the French and European aircraft industry, and I don’t support them in any way, except that I do not wish to see anyone lost because of the arrogance of engineers who refuse to use simple design procedures that have been available to them for fifty years. Some things extend beyond international borders . . . this is one.

Theory is great . . . the absolute limits of “aluminum skin” is great, but the world thinks that ‘filament” composites is the wave of the future. OK, if aluminum is to be “left behind”, at least it is important to understand just “why” aluminum dominated the aircraft industry for close to a century.

Stan, you and I are extremely close in our attitude about aluminum, and the “friendly” characteristics related to aircraft.

When “Eclipse” made statements about “chem-etching” a .040" thick skin to bring portions of it down to .025", I wondered, “Do these people understand the interior stress layers that are inherent in an aluminum sheet?” . . . When you “etch” through the layers of a sheet of aluminum, you encounter different layers of tensile strength, and “yield strength” . . . and you risk the unknowns of “chemical etching” . . . acid etching is an “art”, and certainly not a “science”. [Rolling aluminum sheet creates the required “work hardening layers” necessary to the ultimate strength of the final product . . . chemical etching removes these critical layers, rendering them less than as strong as the “virgin” rolled material. Theory says “heat treating can correct the problems”, practical fabrication tells a much different story.] Many things affect the acid removal of the base metal, and “masking” is most critical. At best, this was a “quick fix”, and nothing on which anyone would wish to “bet the farm”. Of course, the final statements, as I recall, had to do with the fact that the material in question was a “fairing”, and not critical to the airworthiness of the aircraft. Most of you probably passed over this little bit of news . . . but some of us observed it with amazement.

Eclipse Aviation claims to be at the forefront of technology . . . why is it they seem to have missed so much?

The rest of you . . . carry on!

gadfly

airtaximan said...

and the walls come crumblin down, and the walls come tumblin tum-blin

down....

I wonder if EB knew about United, too.

Hampson put out a dammage control press release a few weeks ago, stating they were trying to recover from the shortfall they were expecting due to Eclipse missing their marks...

And the walls...come crumbling, crumbling down....

Frank Castle said...

"His comment about Avidyne, regrettably, shows an amazing lack of understanding of the aircraft avionics architecture."

It's just that. Architecture. The integrated design of the aircraft.

You don't throw a million dollar kitchen in the middle of a modular home. You don't just throw new software into your old 386 and hope it still runs.

And Eclops can't fix this quickly, I don't care how many months ago they decided to fix it. Kenny Mac is so FOS his eyes are brown.

Gunner said...

I direct this to all the Depositor and Potential Depositor lurkers who I know read this Blog.

Not to pile on too much, but I had much time to think while flying my dinosaur technology twin back from the DFW area today.

Now, I don't believe for a minute that Eclipse was set up as a scam. I think it started, like so many other companies, as a dream....and that's a good thing. But, like so many endeavors, the unmitigated hubris of the founder have resulted in unrealistic expectations, followed by wild claims of future success, followed by even more unrealistic expectations as a result of the wild claims. And, when the music stops, you find an otherwise legitimate business has become a scam; robbing from Peter (the Depositors) to pay Paul.....and worse.

Enron was, perhaps, the most famous example of the phenomenon whereby a Company takes on a life of its own and will protect its continued existence and officers' egos, for as long as possible, at any cost and without regard to who suffers. This attitude is written all over the Eclipse Corporate Culture, from marketing materials, to Depositor interactions to press releases and interviews.

I think back in my life to all the scams that I've recognized and all the scams that I've been taken on, large and small. It occurs to me that, while not every man telling a tale like Vern's is a scam artist, virtually EVERY scam artist tells a tale like Vern's. Think about it; I'm certain your experience was identical to mine.

Professionals know that you can't run a "con" on someone, unless that person is desperate or greedy; because every con is based on the "mark's" perception that they're getting something for nothing. In the case of Eclipse, the marks believe they're getting a 2.3 million dollar aircraft for 1.6 million. That's the con. In fact, I sincerely doubt that position holder 100 will ever see his jet or his deposit. Because one of the keys to a good con is the fact that the mark will clutch for that last straw of hope before he'll admit he's been taken. Just ask the employees of Enron who invested their life savings in the company.

Read the continuing "tale" of Eclipse. All the signs are there.

Gunner

Kaptain Kool-Aid said...

And the winner is...


Eclipse Acquires Narco

By Jim McKlain
Journal Staff Writer

ALBUQUERQUE, NM – Very Light Jet (VLJ) manufacturer Eclipse Aviation has just announced that it has acquired controlling interest in Narco Avionics. In a statement to the press an ebullient Vern Raburn said, “Eclipse is pleased to join forces with such a legendary company as Narco Avionics. In the world of avionics no one can match Narco’s proven track record of success. We are genuinely excited to begin working with a world-class company that can deliver on its promises unlike Williams, BAE, Avidyne and, well, us.” Eclipse simultaneously announced that their Avio avionics suite will henceforth be known as the Superhomer 500.



NOTE: For those reading this blog who are comedically-challenged, the above article is a parody and should not be taken seriously.

airtaximan said...

KKA,

you got me man! this is terrific.

you got my vote!

AMAZING

Stan Blankenship said...

gunner wrote:

"In the case of Eclipse, the marks believe they're getting a 2.3 million dollar aircraft for 1.6 million. That's the con. In fact, I sincerely doubt that position holder 100 will ever see his jet or his deposit. Because one of the keys to a good con is the fact that the mark will clutch for that last straw of hope before he'll admit he's been taken."


Absolutely true except the part about money. In the case of many position holders, I think it is the dream of owning and flying their own jet. Think back, you had and still have the same dream.

What a great disappointment many will suffer if your prediction comes to pass. It is more than money.

bill e. goat said...

EB- thank you for sharing the news with us. I imagine you expected it would bring a lot of “I told you so” stuff, (and it did), but you kindly shared it anyway, and we are all appreciative of the information.
I hope it does not delay your airplane much (I don't think it will), and I hope it results in superior safety and satisfaction for all owners, operators, and occupants.

Old Troll said...

If I were a depositor, the thing that would strike me most of all is the "customer communication". Look at how predictable they have become! Specifically, compare the letter from Ken McNamara on the following points:

--The "C Model" with free upgrades
--No delays in production
--New vendor but we won't tell you who it is
--Insults and blame: "A lesser known publication, CharterX"
--Just trust us.


All of these were predicted on this blog. The continued scapegoating and dodging would make me doubt the security of my deposit, especially since it has become so predictable. Transparency was one of the big marketing ploys. What happened to it? IMO, it never existed but they don't even pretend anymore.

airtaximan said...

HOoopla from a few months ago regarding E-clips EFB/AFB (why use the conventional name, right?)

PR regarding the integrated and advanced nature of the new FB for Avio...produced by a tiny company...only 2 bios, mostly NASA experimental work as "Strategic Aeronautics" Vern's supplier of choice for his Flight Bag...

Jon Paris
Founder and President

As a disruptive technology company focused on developing cockpit information systems for pilots across the spectrum of aviation, Strategic Aeronautics has introduced revolutionary Electronic Flight Bag systems through the NASA Small Aircraft Transportation (SATS) program, and facilitated corporate teaming with Very Light Jet aircraft manufacturers, the FAA, and the Department of Defense. Prior to forming Strategic, Jon established the government programs practice at Avidyne Corporation, the pacesetter in integrated avionics for general aviation aircraft.

Thomas Smith
Chief Technology Officer
Tom's chief responsibilities are to prioritize technology programs, create value from intellectual property, guide creative research from innovation through early-stage development, and influence standards and roadmaps with Strategic Aeronautics' core technologies. Prior to joining Strategic, he was a senior designer for Avidyne Corporation, a leading developer of integrated avionics for general aviation aircraft. Prior to Avidyne, while a member of the U.S. Air Force, Tom was the art director for the USAF Thunderbirds.

Just a few months ago, using former Avidyne execs for your new flight bag! C'mon, they couldn'ta been all that bad. Integration issues involved in the decision - youbetcha!

Vern shoulda made another press release, more like JetBlue's recent Neeleman PR after the tarmac debacle.

Hey, KKA - can you compose an
ECLIPSE DEPOSITORS BILL OF RIGHTS

This would be hysterical...

Over

Old Troll said...

There were previous posts concerning grounds for legal action. Stan made several comments specifically regarding grounds for fraud. If this change results in significant delays to delivery, it could constitute fraud because of deliberate misrepresentation. Eclipse demanded "progress" payments from depositors for deliveries in 2007. They admit they have been working "behind-the-scenes for a number of months". You could reasonably argue that their payment demands for a 2007 delivery position constitute fraud because they knew they would not make that date. They can claim stupidity on delays in receiving the production certificate but avionics are type design changes. They should have a better idea on the avionics change time frame since they have been through the type certificate process.

This would be the basic argument: They knew they had a major change coming. They knew about how long it would take. They continued to make inaccurate delivery promises. That's fraud, plain and simple.


I don't, for one minute, believe this will be as simple as replacing some boxes or a software load. Aircraft are not computers. They are not Plug-N-Play.

gadfly said...

Gunner

You have said it so well, and so simply. Beyond that, there is virtually nothing left.

When all the dust has settled, no one can say they were not warned. Maybe the tragedy, is that a thousand families, depending on the word of certain persons’,will find themselves in dire straits. And that will be just part of the tragic end of a tale, based on the “egotism” on those certain persons who claimed great things, without the knowhow, nor the power, to bring about their great and mighty claims.

God have mercy on their souls!

gadfly

(Are you as tired of all this? . . . as I am? There comes a time when a “body” says, “Enough, already . . . the horse is dead, now bury the thing and get on with life!” . . . but, unfortunately, the carcass will be “exhumed” and a new “necropsy” will be performed . . . Did you know that an “autopsy” only applies to humans? . . . and a “necropsy” applies to animals? . . . in this case, I think the term will be “necropsy”!)

Stan Blankenship said...

From a former employee who was on board during a fairly early period.

Posted with his permission.

Quote


A little history on the AVIDYNE ADHRS... First, Dan Schwinn is a great guy, and their product is really very good. We are all late, it's the nature of the business.

Eclipse was never going to use the AVIDYNE system as designed or built. Everything Vern touches he must control and so once again the vendor takes it in the rear for Eclipses flaws.

Same issue with the Williams EJ-22. Vern wanted more than the 2 year exclusivity on the engines, so he siezed the design of the FADEC and would not even allow Williams direct communication with BAE, who was designing the FADEC for Eclipse for the FJ-22. The engine was great, but the FADEC could not keep up with it. All of the issues were due to time lags between engine and FADEC... And of course the need for a heck of a lot more power than the engine was designed for!!!

The AVIDYNE systems were only 1/7th of the AVIO system, which does not work, and I suggest will never work. Even if it could, it can't by design... The last thing you want to have to certify, and ever modify is software, dealing with the FAA...


End quote.

airtaximan said...

troll,

Think back to first flight (and only flight with the EJ22)..I know, its a long time ago - years..... this triggered non-refundable out of escrow, at first flight...and it was a scam.

- do you think they had prior knowledge of the lack of viablitlty of the engine? They dumped Williams within weeks.
- do you think they were not already talking about alternatives when the triggered the first flight deposit milestone? With a stunt and engine they would never use? They treated it as if they woke up one day and realized the engine would not make it. C'MON.
- do you think flying with a missile engine from telefyne in the interim was not a cover for "hey we did a one shot stunt to get your money and we have no program left, no engine..."

They cannot have it both ways. They claim to be the best procurement and business outfit in aerospace. They have a thousand employees. They raised a $billion on the resumes of their executives. They claim to work 400hrs a week. They are pros..remember. Plausible deniability is retarded.

Do ya think they they knew the engines were falling apart when they took the deposit money? Should they have told the depositors?

-they prmoted Nimbus, the perfume guy with no money...they took his stock and didn't tell anyone until some reporter wrote an article about it. Do you think they knew the perfume guy had no chance in heck of being an air taxi operator, let alone buying 1,000 planes - but, Vern was going down and needed $200M - he told no one, until after the money was in the bank, and the reporter visited him.

They lied to everyone, and worried about it later. Over and Over.

THIS DESERVES AN INVESTIGATION, and
so does the recent bold move to try to get more payments from depositors without truthful disclosure.

EclipseBlogger said...

Bill.e.goat said... EB- thank you for sharing the news with us. I imagine you expected it would bring a lot of “I told you so” stuff, (and it did), but you kindly shared it anyway, and we are all appreciative of the information.

I've said it before, I'm here to find out the truth, and to attempt to keep the false statements displayed here to a minimum. The employees of Eclipse are good people, and they deserve a fair shake. I still believe in them, and the product, and as with any evolving story, there's still much more to be told that hasn't yet surfaced.

Old Troll said...

Cabbie,
Even more damning than a single occurrence is if you can demonstrate a pattern of behavior. Of course, you need someone to complain first. It sounds like this may be coming from the Eclipse owners' forum. I'm very curious to see if any of the depositors are upset enough to initiate action. I guess we'll wait and see.

Gunner said...

EclipseBlogger said:
The employees of Eclipse are good people, and they deserve a fair shake.

Give it a rest, EB. You have played that card once too often. What the employees at Eclipse deserve is self respect; and NOBODY can give that to them but themselves. If they're being used or deceived then they deserve the truth (and there's a whole lot more truth that's come from this Blog than from the Press Releases you keep dragging over). If they no longer have faith in the ultimate product, then they need no sympathy; they need to walk. A paycheck is no excuse for participation in manufacture of an aircraft who's reliability you question.

As to the managers and executives, if this Blog is even 50% correct in its predictions and information (and so far the breaking news has been far better than 50%), they should never be allowed to work in the aviation industry again. Because, if the wheels DO come off this thing in the near future, there isn't a single one of them who will be able to claim, "but I didn't know". They're on the inside; they have lunch and drinks with each other. This is not, after all, the Stealth Fighter Program.

So stop playing Champion of the Little Guy. That dog just don't hunt anymore. What if we're right? What about all those "poor good people" who are considering joining the Company tomorrow? Do they not also deserve the "truth"? Or just YOUR "truth", which they will surely get in their job interview.

For my part, I'd pay a sizable chuck of change to be a fly on the wall when EclipseOwner387 has his next conversation with the Company. I don't believe for a nanosecond that he's buying this secretive, "we're on it", "it'll just plug right in" BS.

When the rest of you finally come down to trying to find a leader for the Depositor Revolt, you're gonna find out that guys like him quietly cut their losses. If attitudes like yours are typical of the Depositors, the REAL leaders aren't gonna waste their breath. They'll just quietly get out as so many before them have.
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

From an individual involved in the avionics business. He seems to know more than the average bear.

Posted with his permission.

Quote.

A comment from a lurker who has worked on a lot of RJs and biz jets.

I would assume that the avidyne system is required to meet a level A design assurance level. That would very strongly imply that some part of the software, if it partitioned correctly must be developed to Do178 B level A which is not a trivial matter.

As far as I know the feds do not TSO avionic software. They do TSO certain systems that contain software but I do not believe this is a TSOd system we are talking about. The system would be certified as part of the TC.

An aggressive schedule for a new software cert package developed to a level A design assurance would be a year, I do stress aggressive.

If they have not been working with a supplier for a long time then this is a major setback.

We at my company talked to eclipse during the irrational exuberance stage i.e. launch and decided our efforts would be better spent elsewhere. Do178 and Do254 was not applicable to their new way of doing business.

They had an alternate means of compliance. I don't think they were successful with the alternate means of compliance. I don't see any of the big 3 Honeywell, Rockwell Collins or Thales undertaking this effort without a lot of money up front.

The second tier players would be stretched to meet the schedule.

Farming out the software development assuming they have a hardware platform to a firm in India would raise the ire of the FAA since there is no bilateral with India.

This may be part to the PC issue also.

End quote.

Then from a second msg, some of which represents answers to my specific questions.

Quote.

It is not a trivial change I do not know of any integrated avionics system that is TSOd.

The display hardware maybe TSOd but the software is customized to the aircraft. Neither Garmin nor Avidyne claim TSO on there integrated systems.

They are custom modified for each aircraft. The displays themselves and the instruments are TSOd.

SEE FAA website for TSO'd items:

http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgTSO.nsf/MainFrame?OpenFrameSet

There may a requirement for common cause failures on the AHRS. This is not my area of expertise but I would suspect that there may be a requirement for dissimilar hardware.

On a commercial aircraft the third backup instrument is always independent. Looking at the crossbow website it seems like this should be achieved by using one of the different models.

However the 500 family looks like it is the only one TSOd and the difference is the data port between models so they are not dissimilar.

The 400 series does not look like it is TSOd therefore a qual program is required. The other possibility is the design assurance level. The items are TSOd but the product sheets do not talk about the design assurance levels of the items.

There may be an issue with the software design assurance level

I am just guessing here but the avidyne system probably provided the displays for the AHRS. The crossbow units only spit out data, now you have to display it

The displays need to be of a high data integrity. The third is the standby instrument in case all else fails. It probably requires its own independent display. The crossbow 500s AHRS are TSOd so the feds don't need to get involved other than it is appropriate for the aircraft.

Once you do the flight test no further qualification is required from the supplier.

The avidyne system may also be routing the data to other systems. I don't know how they architected the system. The AHRS with 429 output could be routed to multiple instruments since the 429 data link has one talker and many listeners.

Without knowing more details it is difficult to speculate.

The separation of the computers should not be an issue . The boxes are firewalled and independent.

The cable routing should be scrutinized for common cause failures such as rotor burst, misconnected cables etc.

I will go out on a limb and say with a great amount of confidence that the avidyne system is at least a level B design assurance system on the software side and there are some hardware backup systems that are in place that mitigate the hazards identified in the FAA as catastrophic to get a reduction of the design assurance level of the avidyne software.

One works rather hard to reduce the level of the software because the cert package cost and time is exponential with the design assurance level.

Your comment on the panels going blank being due to a ground loop or a ground fault is highly suspect. This kind of issue should have come out in the HERF and lightning testing of DO160. It is more likely a hardware failure or a software issue with a is compare. This is highly speculative

Avidyne will treat there data as a trade secret just as any supplier who is providing TSOd parts. The aircraft OEM usually is not privy to the internals of a TSOd system unless your Boeing or Airbus

End quote.

bill e. goat said...

Gunner- Help! My mom says she won't let me visit this blog any more unless we all play nice!

gadfly said...

Alright, Billy,

One hundred times,

“Eclipse is a real airplane!”

. . . then clean the erasers before you go home!

Tomorrow morning, bring this note back signed by your mother.

Stan Blankenship said...

The blog is quiet today.

I'm hearing the Eclipse Owners Board is dead quiet as well.

Joe Patroni said...

I think the Eclipse saga will be coming rapidly to a close, now that Avidyne has been thrown under the bus......

Time to just let the true believers believe what they want to, despite every indication that the program is imploding.

I've always asserted to everyone I know that V. Rayburn is just another Jim Bede, promising the moon, but being unable to deliver.

I'll be first in line for the book when someone writes the story on this fiasco. I'm guessing it's going to tell a story of a company that overestimated it's capabilities, and underestimated (or better yet, was totally unaware of) all the issue that are required to be addressed to design, certify and produce a modern aircraft. Especially if they took what seems to be the mindset of Microsoft/the rest of the PC Industry "Lets throw it out on the market ASAP, then we'll address the problems when the customers find them...."

Just some of the many questions I'd like to see answered eventually.

-Why did they think they were smarter than everyone else in aviation, and design an airplane for an empty weight that (in my opinion) was impossible to achieve, considering that you are going to have a certain level of performance depending on the power/weight ratio? Especially when you start adding in things that crew and passengers expect in this type of aircraft, like soundproofing, insulation, and cabin amenities? Someone should have been monitoring weights. Did someone raise a red flag? Was he/she ignored? Surely they knew they had a problem before they weighed the prototype for the first time.

-After the decision to replace the Williams engines with P&Ws, was there a review of the design to determine the impact of the change...at that point a complete upscale and/or redesign should have been considered. If it was, why was that recommendation ignored?

-How badly were the problems associated with designing-in a fully integrated AND CERTIFIED avionics package underestimated? Were the issues even recognized?

-When did they become aware of all the issues that needed to be addressed before they could obtain their Production Certificate? Did they think that they could start delivering airplanes upon obtaining the Type Certificate? (Boy, I would like to have been a fly on the wall at that meeting. ..especially when they started asking questions about traceability, and where all the paperwork was for the components currently in house)

-I keep reading statements to the effect that "...the FAA is working with us 24/7......" Really? Which FAA are they working with? The FAA guys I know tell me they don't even do overnight trips, because they have no budget for it. Who is paying for all this FAA overtime?
Anyone thought about a Freedom of Information Act request for any correspondence between the Feds and Eclipse?

-All of the airframe "Band-Aids" (tip tanks, added fairings, etc.) indicate a desperate attempt to eke out performance from a design that has missed it's design targets. In an age where +/- 2 or 3% spells the difference between a successful design and an also ran, this is not good.

Sorry for the long post..... inquiring minds want to know. :)

Gunner said...

Stan-
I think the fact that the Blog is so quiet is testimony to the fact that nobody here revels in Eclipse's misfortune. We just don't like to be fed BS while being expected to call it prime rib.

A little quiet time is probably appropriate for many, to allow the Avidyne bombshell to sink in.
Gunner

gadfly said...

What seems like a long time ago, a local shop owner told me he had a “hurry up” job to supply some large aluminum counter-weights, to place inside the nose of the “little jet”, a day or two prior to their first “show and tell”. It seems that the “little bird” wanted to sit on its tail when they took it off the supports and placed it on its feet. At the time it had the “Williams” engines, but I thought, what could the weights possibly duplicate, when later they installed “avionics”, etc., inside the nose . . . enough to push it back into its proper “weight and balance” envelope? At the time, it seemed to be a red flag that someone was not paying attention to basic weight factors. But then, that was prior to the later attempts to put the bird in the air. At the time, it was only for a “look-see” by the public . . . and it would be “unfair” to base much on this passing comment. However, it caused more than a couple of us to wonder if these folks really knew what they were doing. Wouldn’t it be easy enough to determine with the “CAD” system, the exact location of the CG in relationship to the “main landing gear”?

gadfly

Niner Zulu said...

Stan,
What's left to say? Eclipse has been dealt a huge blow. It is unfortunate for all of us.

This post from a frustated position holder at the Eclipse forum pretty much sums it up:

I CAN'T STAND IT ANYMORE!
The news blackout from Eclipse, the meltdown with Avidyne, the failure to deliver any aircraft beyond one....... This is driving me crazy. Today I've engaged a broker to help me find a Citation. My position for "delivery in 4/08" is for sale. If any interest please email me at....

Jake Pliskin said...

Gadfly: just curious, but why would one use aluminum counter weights?

Ken Meyer said...

Niner Zulu wrote,
"I CAN'T STAND IT ANYMORE!
The news blackout from Eclipse, the meltdown with Avidyne, the failure to deliver any aircraft beyond one....... This is driving me crazy. Today I've engaged a broker to help me find a Citation. My position for "delivery in 4/08" is for sale. If any interest please email me at...."


Well the comment was pretty colorful and may sum up the general sentiment some owners have, but when I contacted the seller to discuss buying his position today, his price came out about $1.63M, which is about $40K over CPI-adjusted list price. So, it's not exactly a firesale.

Ken

Gunner said...

Ken-
Barely more than a week ago y'all brought us good news:
- Two aircraft would be delivered the week of Feb 12
- Pilot Training would begin the week of Feb 12
- PC would be issued the end of February

Contrast that with your good news for today: Depositors, fed up and unwinding from their positions, are not yet selling those positions at "fire sale" prices.

There's a fine line between being an optimist and an ostrich, I think. ;-)

Gunner

gadfly said...

Jake

This is an educated guess:

The company that made the counterweights was already a subcontractor for them, and their specialty is “waterjet” machining, where an ultra-high pressure stream of water (sometimes mixed with garnet grit) cuts through various types of material. They were already set up for cutting aluminum, and had thick aluminum plate readily “on hand”. Handling the aluminum would be much easier than handling steel, even though the weight difference is about 1/3 of steel. Also, placing aluminum weights in contact with the “skin” would create much less risk in “denting” the aluminum, or “fiber re-enforced plastic”, spreading the “load” over a much larger area. The cutting was probably matched to the countour of the fuselage, or nacelle. The “customer” was in a hurry, and needed the counter weights “yesterday” . . . so they went with what they had, rather than what might have been better in the long run. It was one of those “weekend” type jobs where steel plate would not have been readily available, under any circumstances. In the long run, they would have taken corrective action, and would not be needing “counter weights” . . . evidently “they did” after the dog and pony show.

And like I said, this is only a “guess” as to “why”, in answer to your question. We had contacted this supplier in regards to an entirely different need, for accurate fabricated parts from 300 series corrosion resistant steel . . . the discussion about Eclipse came up as to what other work this company had been doing.

gadfly

Ken Meyer said...

Gunner wrote,
"Ken-
Barely more than a week ago y'all brought us good news:
- Two aircraft would be delivered the week of Feb 12
- Pilot Training would begin the week of Feb 12
- PC would be issued the end of February"


Gunner, I never said any of that stuff. You continue to have an amazing affinity for posting things that are flatout wrong.

It is hard to put much faith in the opinions of a guy who so often seems to get his "facts" wrong.

Most everybody knows you bailed out of your Eclipse purchase. I think that was the right decision for you. I also think your decision was good for the company.

But just because it was the right decision for you really doesn't mean that any of the other hundreds of buyers who don't see it quite the way you did are ostriches. That's a silly suggestion that is right in line with your mixed-up facts.

Ken

Gunner said...

Ken-
Note I distinctly stated "y'all", not "you". Big difference, Ken. I really don't see why you're so testy of late. Then again, perhaps I do.

As to my decision to bail on my deposit, you're right. It was the right decision for me, given the fact that the Company attempted to substitute a new Contract before my signature ink was dry and given the fact that they handed me the same type of song and dance that you seem to chorus to so well.

And you're right again, it was a good decision for the Company. Know why? I'd be the first guy to their front door, the first guy to the best litigator and the first guy to the press if they scammed me the way they've scammed you.

I'm funny that way. I don't like being scammed. Go figger.
Gunner

twinpilot said...

Aviation International news just reported:
"Eclipse’s Relationship with Avidyne Terminated
VLJ developer Eclipse Aviation announced last week that its relationship with avionics supplier Avidyne has ended. Eclipse plans to announce shortly which companies will supply components for the Model 500’s Avio integrated avionics system. AIN has been told by a source close to the process that Honeywell will be sharing the job with another specialist, thought to be Innovative Solutions & Support (IS&S). Also, the FAA Flight Standardization Board (FSB) this week released its draft Eclipse 500 report, which specifies “master training, checking and currency requirements applicable to flight crews.” Certain mandatory training prerequisites include studying jet operations and single-pilot resource management; a Myers-Briggs type indicator test complete with a psychologist’s review of the results; and emergency procedures training (physiological and hypoxia training and upset training in Eclipse’s L-39 jet training airplane). All Part 91 pilots will be required to participate in Eclipse’s mentoring program. The FSB report noted that the FAA considers the Eclipse a centerline-thrust twin “since no VMC speed is published,” and pilots who are not multiengine rated will have a limitation placed on their type rating specifying centerline thrust only."
My thoughts:
Honeywell and IS&S can certainly do the job if allowed to but it won't be cheap.

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
airtaximan said...

Whoever cares...

I predicted the only taker on this fiasco would be if Peg BIlson would pull some strings at Honeywell...

Chalk one up for the Blog...

Ken Meyer said...

Airtaximan wrote,
"perhaps a fire sale would be if he offered you money to take his position?"


No, I think he should get $1.63M. I'll be delighted if he does.

My point was that it certainly appears that the marketplace is not validating the perception on this blog that the company is going down and the positions are no longer worth anything. This position is actually listed at a premium, not a discount.

Ken

BigJim said...

A previous post noted that the Avidyne software was likely DO-178 Level A. I would venture that they are certifying to Level B as the safety requirements are lower for aircraft weighing less than 6,000 pounds.

A new supplier would not only have to recertify the software, but qualify all new hardware to DO-160 standards. This means vibration, temperature, humidity, lightning, etc.

They have a LONG way to go.

Gunner said...

"This position is actually listed at a premium, not a discount."

Ken-
One seller's first ask of $1.63 mill for an "early position" on the opening day of the listing is not conclusive; hell, it's not even a data point. If it were it would not be one that reads well in Eclipse's favor.

Lord, how the machine does spin.
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

Gunner wrote,
"One seller's first ask of $1.63 mill for an "early position" on the opening day of the listing is not conclusive"


Well, duh!

This guy's colorful plea that he'd had enough and couldn't stand it anymore might lead us to believe that owners are heading for the doors, but his pricing is not at all in line with his plea. That's my sole point here.

Ken

Gunner said...

Ken-
I see. We should disregard his statement of complete frustration based on the fact that he's starting with a price for a 2008 jet that is 2.5% higher than what the company is asking for a 2010(?) position. Why shouldn't he? Certainly the Deposits are still rolling into Eclipse for those tail end positions. After all, they've already told us they're right on schedule.

So, if a 2009 or 2010 Eclipse is still worth 2.6 mil, a 2008 should absolutely carry a 2.5% premium....and he should sell it within a couple days. Kindly report back on his progress.

Nothing to see here, folks. All is in order. Move along, now. Your Eclipse jet will be here before you know it.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

Ken,

get serious,

you say "No, I think he should get $1.63M. I'll be delighted if he does"

That's the asking price. Even HE doesn't expect to get this...

I'm sure YOU will be delighted, but, t'aint happenin... even he doesn't think he could get it...otherwise, he'd be asking a little more.

If it would delight you, YOU should BUY it!

bambazonke said...

Reading the market econometric studies that are being promulgated by my learned blogger colleagues, let me make a few comments, based on what I KNOW;

1. The Eclipse market has fallen over like an oak felled by an axe. Inquiries that were reasonably brisk up until the news broke, have just died.

2. Platinum positions are languishing on the market, look at the days since listed, they are growing by the day. You can get a Platinum position, for under $1,6m and not even try. This is a position that includes the options and includes the fact that there is no CPI unless the CPI rises above 3.6% then you pay the difference between 3.6 and the prevailing CPI for the term it was above 3.6.

Contrast this with the position that EAC is selling, you will note that you can purchase a plane today from them for 2-300k less than one that will be delivered 2-3 years after yours. This is bad economics for EAC, it means that because their order book is so deep, that they have created their own 'boogie man', the person that purchased a position in 2000. So as hard as they try and peddle their planes, there will always be others out there that can undercut them for the same product by significant margins and deliver it sooner, this is a sure fire recipe for EAC to go broke, if the other plagues and pestilences that are afflicting them don't perish them before this.

3. All buyers want to know when delivery will take place, right now no one can answer that question and EAC has gone into mum mode, so there is no possibility of getting an answer from them. Whilst this atmosphere prevails, the chance of making a sale on an EAC-500 wonder jet are slim to none.

4. Something that is interesting about the buyers that are in the market, EAC have managed to generate interest in the non flying fraternity, this you might say would be a plus, but not really, they are less trusting of the mantra that is emanating from ABQ of 'trust me it'll all be fine' than the position holders that have enough aviation knowledge to be drunk on their own perceptions of what is good and bad. So this segment of the buying public are harder to impail with a sales contract than the pilot with the ego-jet mentality.

5. In this internet day and age, where information is disseminated to the four corners of the globe at the flick of a send button, the price that the last wonder jet sells at, is the price that the next one starts at. Unfortunately for KKA and his merry gang of followers, many of these sellers are not banking on making the mortgage payment based on what they realize on the sale of the jet. So whatever one of these sellers lets the wonder jet go for in the market, is not necessarily going to change his lifestyle. BUT, as each plane changes hands at a lower number, forever spiraling down into the abyss of the price range of the Barons and other lesser planes, the life style of one Vern Rayburn and his crew of desert imbibers will be immeasurably altered, unless of course he can resurrect Milton Friedman and come up with some economic spin on how as you loose x dollars on each plane, the market economies are such that you can make up the short fall on volume.

Kenny, EO38X and EB, take it from your sparring blogging buddies, this is the time to sell, it won't get any better than it is now.

Ken Meyer said...

Bambi wrote,
"Kenny, EO38X and EB, take it from your sparring blogging buddies, this is the time to sell, it won't get any better than it is now."

Gosh, Bambi, it looks like you missed the point again! Now is not the time to sell; now is the time to buy. Knowing that difference is the reason I can afford one of the wonderjets :)

Ken

Frank Castle said...

Sounds more like Randolph and Mortimer Duke.....

I really can't see the point. Just let the dumb diehards drown in their own fishtank. Quit trying to throw them a line, ie the line of common sense. It ain't gonna happen, they are chuggin' Koolaid by the gallon.

Go ahead and buy more , Ken. In 2 weeks, your positions won't be worth squat. You'll disappear from this blog, and we can go on about our normal lives in the real world.

BTW, we'll do what we can to help the 1,000 or so homeless people move to Kansas.

Frank Castle said...

Nothing to see here, folks. All is in order. Move along, now.

The Egress, er, um, Eclipse is right this way......