Thursday, June 28, 2007


ECLIPSE AVIATION INTRODUCES PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCT

ALBUQUERQUE, NM,

June 28, 2007 – Vern Raeburn, President of Eclipse Aviation, announced today the introduction of Eclipsidrin, a new pharmaceutical product. “We have disrupted the aviation industry,” said Mr. Raeburn, “and now we intend to do the same thing with prescription drugs.”

“We recognize that many of our depositors have been sitting around waiting for delivery and this has led to localized itching and discomfort,” continued Raeburn. “We studied this condition and found that it exists in other cultures. For instance, when Eskimos sit on the ice too long they develop Polaroids. One of our depositors, a physician, reported that several of his cohorts were developing Vernaroids. I’ve never really cared for the name but we’ve recognized this as an opportunity,” said Raeburn.

“Eclipsidrin brings quick relief, and we’ve introduced it in record time. We’ve had enough experience with federal agencies to know they are all about the same… FAA… FDA… just one silly letter is different. We intend to get around to clinical trials but our depositors have begged us to get the product out there. Besides we’ve had considerable experience with the placebo effect in our aviation products,” concluded Raeburn.

See your physician to determine whether Eclipsidrin is right for you. Not to be used while operating machinery such as aircraft. Sufferers who have made non-refundable deposits may require more frequent dosage.

An extract from the black tulip is the basis for Eclipsidrin.

104 comments:

Observer2 said...

I love this quote from Vern in January 2006:

"The US aerospace industry’s failure to adjust to the sort of demands Eclipse is putting on its suppliers is a constant refrain of Raburn’s. “The vast majority of our problems are with US companies, not overseas ones,” he admits. “It all comes down to a culture of the aerospace industry. Quality has never been an issue – this is an industry for whom quality is a matter of life or death. But price is something to be negotiated after the fact and schedules are there to be broken. ”

Price negotiated after the fact sound like: Jet Complete

Schedules are there to be broken do I need to say more :)

mirage00 said...

Production ramp up will occur more significantly towards the end of the 3rd quarter.

Why?

1. pitot tube fix approval and installation
2. Avio NG certification and installation

The plane is moving along, in spite of all its teething issues.

I remain amused.

double 00

mirage00 said...

Stan said... The underlying question is not whether the blog is running out of steam but rather did Eclipse get another round of financing or are they running out of money?

Tell me Stan, have you seen EclipseAviation's books? How can you even possibly comment on their financial stability without having access? Please end the retoric.

Piper Aircraft is a private company, so is Cirrus Design. Are we to assume they are both near Bankruptcy?

Everything you know regarding finance was probably learned from Quickbooks. Some friendly advice, you should stick with what you know.

I remain amused.

double 00

Gunner said...

- Technology used nearly to perfection
- A user interface that leapfrogs the competition by 3 generations
- World Class Design and Vendor Partnering
- Fully functioning product on Day 1, with upgrades to follow that will only increase the value proposition
- A marketing rollout so perfect, it will be talked about for years.

Such is the nature of REALLY Disruptive Technology. Vern should shut the company down for two years and go figure out how Steve Jobs brought the iPhone to market

It even has an LRU in the form of a Sim Card!
Gunner

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mirage00 said...

Let's see - Eclipse has never made a profit, ever. They are losing money on every delivery in the foreseeable future. A billion dollars spent. The company memo telling everyone to cut back on color copies and no more free soft drinks. Eclipse in the capital markets looking for more money.

Mirage00, put two and two together.


Ahhh... ok so you're assuming?

How much cash on hand does Eclipse Aviation have on the books? Do they have a line of credit? Again, "you speak not of what you know"

I remain amused

double 00

cj3driver said...

Financial Stability?

Eclipse?

MOO, Look at spjets.com. Thier own customers are selling the product for less!

Stan Blankenship said...

The official "Blogger's Delivery Predictions" reside on their own page thanks to the computer skills of flight center. He is also tracking even longer range predictions that some have made.

A link to the site is just under the blog archive.

Addition and changes accepted up to the end of this month.

sparky said...

m00 said:
"Production ramp up will occur more significantly towards the end of the 3rd quarter.

Why?

1. pitot tube fix approval and installation
2. Avio NG certification and installation"

m00,

would you care to explain how you came to the conclusion that these two things help increase the production rate for the company?

Are you implying that the functioning pitot assembly and a functioning aviong are easier and quicker to install than their non-functioning counterparts?

Does the fact that the more they produce now means a greater backlog when they have to retrofit mean anything to you?

How much longer do you think they can re-re-re-re-define the delivery forecasts before the investors and depositors finaly start asking for accountability?

mirage00 said...

How much longer do you think they can re-re-re-re-define the delivery forecasts before the investors and depositors finaly start asking for accountability?

That's between Eclipse and its depositors. Not some angry aviation dinosaur to demand. But on their behalf, I thank you for caring.

I remain amused.

double 00

HiFlyer said...

Stan,

Maybe I missed it on the delivery spreadsheet, but if not, it would be nice to have the confirmed deliveries also listed.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sparky said...

m00,

You know what they say about easily amused people......

From the web today...

...DayJet's founder and chief executive, 53-year-old technology entrepreneur Ed Iacobucci, has ordered more than 300 of the planes and likens them to the iconic Model T car built by Henry Ford, the pioneer of the automotive assembly line.

"It's really the first business aviation aircraft that's ever been mass produced," Iacobucci told Reuters in an interview. "All the parts are really exchangeable between them," he added, saying precision manufacturing was key for fleet owners. "That is a huge innovation."

1.) I believe the term is interchangeable.

2.) It's not an innovation. Either ed doesn't know what he's talking about or he's being purposefully misleading. If you really had a revolutionary aircraft, you wouldn't have to make things up. Notice no talk about efficiency or reliability.

3.) For the last couple of months, anytime the dayjet order is brought up, the additional 1,400 aircraft are no longer mentioned. They used to acknowledge those aircraft as on order, but don't anymore. but there's no change on uncle vern's order tally. anybody care to explain.

m00,

how 'bout you take a break from being amused long enough to answer the hard questions. I believe I asked for a clarification on your last post. If I were asked to back any of my statements, I would.

Of course most of my statements are backed by logic, it helps....

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mirage00 said...

niner zulu...

Unless you have access the their financials....oh nevermind.

Now, how EXACTLY do you know they are "in the capital markets" ? Did you know Cirrus Design is in the capital markets? Are they near bankrupcy?

I remain amused

double 00

bill e. goat said...

Stopping back in for a bit, probably briefly and occasionally.

Welcome back to Frank Castle, the real one.

A couple of months ago the blog pretty much exhausted my time, patience, and even more limited mental faculties and charm- my apologies for some of my ungracious postings.

But here we go again..., perhaps Goat Lite.

M00,
I hate to point out an inconvenient truth, but when it comes to "assuming"...

"Production ramp up will occur more significantly towards the end of the 3rd quarter. Why?
1. pitot tube fix approval and installation
2. Avio NG certification and installation"

Congratulations. Production HAS already ramped up. From a few per year, to a few more per year.

Pitot tube fix? well, if 152's can do it...

Avio NG certification and installation by 2007Q3???

I'm glad you're feeling amused- so are many others.

Oops- that's the old me. Sorry.

“I hope things work out just great!- I'm assuming they will!”

:0

sparky said...

m00, could you answer my previous question please?

mirage00 said...

Of course most of my statements are backed by logic, it helps....


Yeah of course they are. Kind of like Stans Washington connections, conspiracy garbage.

Logic?????? This blog is anything but logical, but I'll bite.

Do you think Eclipse should build an airplane in large quantity with the existing certified pitot tubing system in place that requires a currently "not yet but soon to be certified AD fix" OR should Eclipse wait for the new pitot system to be certified before continuing its
ramp up?

Please keep in mind, there are quite a few customers that are willing to take delivery now and have their birds retrofitted later. This is why they still have random deliveries.

I do remain amused

double 00

mirage00 said...

Sparky,

Now answer mine?

Now, how EXACTLY do you know they are "in the capital markets" ? Did you know Cirrus Design is in the capital markets? Are they near bankrupcy?

sparky said...

WOW!!!

you answered a hard one. Incorrectly, but hey, you're getting there. Just like the grown ups.

Now, why on earth would anyone take delivery of an aircraft that they can't fly for at LEAST two months because of the lack of planning by eclipse.

You chastise someone for assuming to know what's going on in ABQ, yet you make the assumption that the position holders are telling eclipse, "i don't want to wait for a fix, deliver my non-functioning aircraft that i can't fly for two months"

No wonder your amused. Next time i'll use smaller words and t-y-p-e- r-e-a-l-l-y s-l-o-w.

sparky said...

sorry, wrong blogger. I don't believe I mentioned anything about capital markets.

JetProp Jockey said...

Thanks for the delivery spreadsheet.

Any chance of a column to discribe our definition of delivery. Mine is based on planes delivered to DayJets + Any plane flown away by a type rated owner/pilot.

sparky said...

m00 stated:

"Do you think Eclipse should build an airplane in large quantity with the existing certified pitot tubing system in place that requires a currently "not yet but soon to be certified AD fix"

M00, this is exactly why you shouldn't be amused. They knew about this problem long before PC. They know about this before TC. They found this problem a long time ago and just hoped that it would be an easy fix.

Like the windows.

Like the breaks.

Like the aviong.

like the aero mods.

I remember the e-boys ripping on cessna for not releasing an aircraft because there was a software bug.

Cessna, like a real aviation company decided not to release an aircraft they knew to be faulty.

eclipse doesn't do that, they continue to churn out faulty aircraft as quickly as they can build them.

FlightCenter said...

hiflyer,

The deliveries confirmed by the FAA are listed on the Eclipse 500 Delivery Data spreadsheet. There are three tabs. The first tab has the raw data, the second tab shows a QTD and YTD summary chart, the third tab shows a MTD summary chart.

The official FAA website shows 15 aircraft with airworthiness certificates that have been registered to owners. FAA data on pending registrations shows another 4 aircraft for which registration paperwork has been submitted, for a total of 19 aircraft. Postings on this blog indicate that between 20 and 26 Eclipse 500 aircraft have been delivered.

JetProp Jockey said...

on the delivery of Bob Yarbrough's
#19, the bad things are:

The bad:
-Having to pay 100% for an unfinished aircraft

-The training delay which prevents my planned summer use

-No financial consideration for the two months without the aircraft or missing the IOU dates.

Looks like the leaseback does not include any compensation.

Some have asked, why would anyone take delivery of an unfinisned aircraft - Answer - It changes their position from an unsecured creditor to owning the aircraft. There is no guarantee that if the company goes bottom up that the mods will be provided free, but that's better than seeing a 60% deposit go up in smoke.

M00 asks how do you know the financial condition without seeing the financials?

One simple answer is that they did not go for an IPO. The initial investors were planning on making a killing when the company went public. The perfect time would have been 18 to 24 months ago, except that the finances would have had to been made public and a perspectus presented that a Major Accounting firm would endorse.

If the numbers didn't stink, they would have been in the IPO market, and if they weren't good 18 months ago, they can only be worse now.

cj3driver said...

M00 said,

Moo,

"...Please keep in mind, there are quite a few customers that are willing to take delivery now and have their birds retrofitted later. This is why they still have random deliveries."

Moo,

The current customer doesn't have much of a choice do they? They have already sent in thier 600K+ to Eclipse over a year ago. Eclipse will say... do you want the plane or not? I'm sure Eclipse will gladly refund the money on the "Gold" (or whatever they call it) position fixed a $995,000. Eclipse admits they are not making a profit on these deliveries.

mirage00 said...

Now, why on earth would anyone take delivery of an aircraft that they can't fly for at LEAST two months because of the lack of planning by eclipse.

Ummm... they are and their reasoning is between them and Eclipse. But hey, thanks again, on their behalf for your concern.

I remain amused.

double 00

bill e. goat said...

Re: M00,

Hmmm, credit where credit is due.

I think Eclipse's production "ramp up" is pretty good for a start up company, especially one that had first flight (second first flight) in Jan 05 (well, Dec 31, 2004). If they build (DELIVER) three or four dozen airplanes this year- that's darn good for a startup. And it looks like they'll beat that, somewhat. maybe. I think the airplane will be good, once the DESIGN and CERTIFICATION are complete. And I can see production in the 175-300+ range eventually, maybe two+ years after final design freeze and certification.

But for a company that started almost a decade and $1B ago- I think that's the thing that grates the deriders, aggravated by Vernastic claims, and his occasional seeming disregard for conventional wisdom- not so much that, but his CONTEMPT for conventional wisdom. If he delivered on the hype, he'd be forgiven.

But instead of delivering product, in the past he has just delivered more hype, which has created a JFK death spiral of respect for him amongst many in the aviation community. Much of the incivility in the blog is fueled by this bombastic buffoon's public behavior and simply insulting and ludicrous pronouncements. I'm sorry the angst is oftentimes misdirected at the "supporters" of the program.

In the spirit of openness, I confess- I too am a supporter of the program. Well, my idea of what the program should be- a glass cockpit twin-jet replacement for the Baron. (The air taxi thing? The need is there, but so are lots of old piston twins...).

I even confess to being a mild supporter of Vern, when he is on his medicine- not his soap box (which is getting pretty rickety lately). Vern does have panache (that's the term that came to mind- a check of the dictionary reveals "reckless courage". Hmmm, perhaps "shameless promotion" is a more apt description).

Alas, the medicine Vern needs most, truth serum, is in short supply. I think Stan is right- Eclipsidrin is what's in Vern's closet.

(Medicine closet, that is. I think some investor skeletons, or incriminating photos, must be hidden in some other closet).

mirage00 said...

You chastise someone for assuming to know what's going on in ABQ, yet you make the assumption that the position holders are telling eclipse, "i don't want to wait for a fix, deliver my non-functioning aircraft that i can't fly for two months"

Who said I was assuming? They are.

I remain amused

double 00

mirage00 said...

One simple answer is that they did not go for an IPO. The initial investors were planning on making a killing when the company went public. The perfect time would have been 18 to 24 months ago, except that the finances would have had to been made public and a perspectus presented that a Major Accounting firm would endorse.

Who said they were going public? Who said they plan on making a killing?

I remain amused

double 00

FlightCenter said...

Here are some statistics on the 2007 delivery projections. There have been 34 projections made by the bloggers.

The average projection of the entire group remains at 99 deliveries in CY2007 - the same as black tulip's projection.

The median projection has risen to 80 deliveries - halfway between mouse and
coldwetmackarelofreality's projections.

The standard deviation is 55.


niner zulu
jetprop jockey
a37pilot
Freedomsjamtarts
metal guy
shane price

are all more than one standard deviation below the average projection.

aeroobserver
green or red
eclipseblogger
execlipse
lloyd
mirage00
andy
alexa

are all more than one standard deviation above the average projection.

The definition of deliveries used for this contest will be the total Eclipse 500 aircraft shown as delivered on or before 31 Dec 2007 in the FAA delivery database as if February 15, 2008.

I've also added a couple other tabs to keep track of blogger's predications regarding avionics, aircraft and certification milestones.

You can see all the projections here.
EclipseAviationCritic Projections

bill e. goat said...

M00,
IPO? Um, I think Vern said that. Many times. But you're right- I wouldn't believe anything he said either.

You remain amusing.

(in a nice sort of way :)

airtaximan said...

mirage:

"Why?

1. pitot tube fix approval and installation
2. Avio NG certification and installation"

The question then becomes, why did your favorite aircrplane non-manufacturer promise 402 deliveries in 2007, knowing this was complete BS?

What are hundreds of production workers doing and 1200 total employees doing over there for almost a year? Theyhave burt hundreds of $millions NOT producing planes?

You make a lot of high flying statements about why everyone here is wrong regarding e-clips financing... but it begs the question: what are they doing for revenue? what are they doing at all? why did they scam the depositors out of progress payments by stating there were 402 planes coming in 2007? 200 or so in 2006, as well. What is the thing everyone here seems to be missing, according to you - that amuses you so much.

I for one, would not be amused.

mirage00 said...

You make a lot of high flying statements about why everyone here is wrong regarding e-clips financing...

No, I'm just trying to point out the fact that unless you have complete access to Eclipse Aviations finances, you can't assume they are in financial dispair.

I've encountered a lot of people who sound like critics but very few who have substantive criticisms. There is a lot of skepticism, but it seems to be more a matter of inertia than it is of people having some real reason for thinking something else.
K. Eric Drexler

I remain amused

double 00

sparky said...

m00 wrote:

"No, I'm just trying to point out the fact that unless you have complete access to Eclipse Aviations finances, you can't assume they are in financial dispair."

Would the same standards not apply to you as well?

Without having full access to eclipse's finances, you can't assume they're solvent.

Sorry m00, but it's a two-way street.

Gunner said...

Sparky-
Go a step further. Using Mirage Standards, how on earth would he "know" when Avio nextGrift will be certified and when the Pitot fix will be certified.

Answer: He doesn't.

See, when he takes the word of the most untrustworthy aircraft manufacturer in modern history, it's called "fact"; When you arrive at logical conclusions based on burn rate, income and Progress Payment scams, it's called "assumption".

That's why he's so amused....either that or it's the cannabis. I really can't tell.
Gunner

sparky said...

gunner,

don't know why I even bother some days. every once in a while you think "AHA, he's using logic and common sense in equal parts", only to find it only applies to arguments that support the ABQ dream.

cj3driver said...

All,

Cirrus released renderings of its new single engine jet today.

Go to Cirrusdesign.com

Gunner said...

CJ-
Holy Cow, now THAT's pretty radical, from cockpit to design. Hope they can actually pull it off.
Gunner

gadfly said...

If the reputation of our little company were “in question”, I would open up the record to avoid even the “appearance” of lack of honesty in our motives, and future plans. Somehow, that doesn’t seem to be a major problem in the present debate among the “faithful” of the “PaperClips”.

And our “customers” have full privilege and “responsibility” to share with any and all, their impressions, and experience with our little company.

We want it that way.

But in the context of the “little jet”, the “PaperClips”, everything is “hush-hush”, while much money is expected from the “faithful”, in exchange for “silence”.

It wouldn’t matter much, except that the issues affect many of us who are manufacturers, and affect “General Aviation” . . . in “general” (not to mention the money and support from the taxpayers of New Mexico, who had almost nothing to say about the support given to the “Paperclips” . . . my term for the little jet from this time forward). New Mexico is one of the poorest states, but the average contribution to “PaperClips” is over $10 for every man, woman, and child . . . not even “pocket change” to most people, but at least “admission” into the knowledge base of “What’s up, Doc?”. And nothing but “silence” in response. There’s something wrong with this picture.

Don’t forget that each and every citizen of the state of New Mexico has a “vested” interest in Eclipse Aviation, simply because our illustrious governor, Bill Richardson, decided to spend our tax money to support this endeavor. How much? . . . $20 million “openly”. So, as “tax payers”, every citizen of New Mexico has a right to know exactly how those millions of “their” dollars are being spent by Eclipse. Will the local citizens get an honest look as what’s going on? . . . “fat chance”.

There’s a “whole lot of dishonesty” going around these days, and many of us are not even a “little bit” amused.

gadfly

gadfly said...

Notice to all "PaperClips" pilots at 16:12 MDT: 'Just walked in from getting today's mail and noticed "Thunderheads" building over the Sandia Mountains (known to my kids as "Cumulo Bumpus Clouds"). If you wish to fly, today, you have only enough time to make a couple "touch and go's", before severe conditions will limit your VFR conditions.

'Just a "friendly" suggestion.

gadfly

cj3driver said...

Gunner,

RE: CirrusJet.

Its a little to radical for my taste also. The company obviously has a loyal following and a fairly good history of performance. I seem to remember the Klapmiers had a few no-go's early on. ...I still give 65% chance, 4.5 years.

mirage00 said...

Would the same standards not apply to you as well?

Without having full access to eclipse's finances, you can't assume they're solvent.


Well sure it does, when I make a comment about their financial strength, then you can ask me for my facts. You see, this little blog was built on speculation and assumptions... this is why its so amusing.

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

"You see, this little blog was built on speculation and assumptions... this is why its so amusing."

Yep, just like your assurances of timelines for future certifications and fixes.

We've seen this check and raise poker from The Faithful for over a year now. You attack anything without "proof" while doling out company promises as though they were uttered by a Rabbi.

Stop being a twit, Mirage; you'll only end growing up that way.
Gunner

gadfly said...

Gunner

Over the years, I’ve known some losers . . . friends, to be sure, but in the end, “Losers”. They want others to “cater” to them, to “ask questions” . . . but they refuse to answer. It seems to give them a feeling of superiority, as if they actually know something . . . and demand that “others” pay a price to “learn” of their expertise.

It’s a “silly game” . . . but it infuriates them when you don’t play along.

Over the years, what I had suspected in the beginning, has been verified: They never knew a thing . . . and are in the process of ending their existence, just as they started out . . . “losers”. Some are “rich”, some are “poor” . . . but all “losers” just the same. Today, those that survive, are out of the thick of living . . . retired, enjoying a “pleasant life” of Floridian bliss . . . and fading into history. So be it.

History has a way of revealing everything. And the history of the “PaperClips” is coming up sooner than the “faithful” desire.

gadfly

Gunner said...

Gad-
Well said and I get the point. We prove nothing by mud wrestling with varmints that love mud.

Still, I can't help but be "amused" by statements like "built on speculation and assumptions". See, for my money (invested and pulled), I can't help but think they're describing The Faithful. After all, we all bought into the deal based on "speculation and assumptions" of the plane's design, QC and performance; and the company's dedication to same.

Today?
I have One Hundred and Thirty Grand burnin' a hole in my pocket, looking for a place to live, while The Faithful have only "speculation and assumptions".

Tell us again how well AvioNextGrift is coming along, mirage. ;-)
Gunner

Metal Guy said...

Mirage00,

”Production ramp up will occur more significantly towards the end of the 3rd quarter.

Why?

1. pitot tube fix approval and installation
2. Avio NG certification and installation



Pitot fix, I would certainly think so. However, I’ll wager you $1000 that Avio NG is not certified by the end of the 3rd quarter (with a certified and operationally approved FMS).

gadfly said...

Gunner

You say you’ve got $130K you need to “invest”? . . . Did I tell you I’ve got this beautiful lot and “bridge” overlooking the “Rio Puerco” arroyo . . . I mean “river”, filled with great year-‘round fishing . . . “silicon eels”, no-limit . . . just a few miles west of “PaperClips” Aviation, unlimited visibility in all directions, easy access to I-40 (or “Old” 66 . . . take your pick). Call my realtor . . . “Moonlight Management”. From this fine property, you can go anywhere in the world.

gadfly

(And I'll throw in a "flat display", no extra charge.)

Gunner said...

Gad-
Does it have "LRU's"?
Don't answer that. We both know it does. That's the beauty of it. ;-)
Gunner

gadfly said...

"LRU" . . . "Line Replaceable Unit" . . . echange the "30 lb test line" in the reel with a "50 lb" test line, for those "big ones" . . . You bet!

gadfly

(Yor're talking about the "NG" line, right?)

airtaximan said...

from the load of "its a good time to slow production" BS, I think the message is clear.

- we're out of avionics.

..the Pitot is amateur hour BS, poor design/requirements issue. This would not hold up the line.

the avio-NG offer as the long pole, IS a real issue, and I bet, they have no more Avidyne avionics beyond the 50 or so in production since January/February or so...

Heck, it ain't the paint slowing them up...that's clear.

Mirage-Zero-Zero... so you have data to back up your contention e-clips has no monetary concerns...I'll bite - let's hear it.

Anyone else wish to stab at what 1200 folks are doing over there with no planes to make? How about the 400 or so working on up to 57 planes for the last 9 months or so? They still at it?

Gunner said...

AT-
I think you missed Mirage's point. He's not asserting anything, other than "you're wrong" without proof and "I'm right" despite history.

It's what The Faithful do. Ken raised it to an art form a year ago; even though it was paint-by-numbers. They really DO believe the lurkers here buy this stuff. The lurkers here, if interested in Le Petit, can buy one cheaper from Wannabe-Former Depositors and get it quicker than even Vern can promise. The lurkers here are also not dumb.

The Revolutionary Aircraft is feasting on its own flesh.

Anyone hearing the familiar "cha-ching" of the Eclipse Deposit Register these past 6 months? I think not.
Gunner

HiFlyer said...

ATM

I'm not sure about the avionics running out, but there is information on the owners board that Eclipse is notifying position holders that the change over to AVIO will occur at #106. Also speculation that the project is behind schedule and will probably slip.

mouse said...

According to Mirage there should be hundreds of EA-500's built and waiting to have their pitot tubes and AVIO instrument panels installed. This way when the fixes come through they can stuff them and deliver the planes in just a few hours.

Just like when Vern blamed Willimas for not having an engine for him, there were not the 5 planes sitting around waiting for engines.

Mirage, Pssst... It's a Duck! And you are vapor on the horizon in a hot, desolate desert...

mouse said...

I guess Mirage forgot about Andrew Kamms dire plea to stop making color copies, drinking free coke, using FedEx to ship stuff, Etc.

Ken, you owe Mirage a great big thank you... You're a PhD compared to him.

flyger said...

Metal Guy said...

Pitot fix, I would certainly think so. However, I’ll wager you $1000 that Avio NG is not certified by the end of the 3rd quarter (with a certified and operationally approved FMS).


Which year?

I mean that seriously. The mere fect they think they can get it done this year shows they haven't a clue what it will take. I think we are a year away, at best, from a customer flying his AvioNG equipped airplane. This is based on the fact that Vern has already said they are behind (which is to soften the blow when he tells us really how far behind they are later), and that they only recently got AvioNG of any variety flying on their test airplanes.

I remain amused because I'm not a depositor. Do they give them happy pills with the contract?

Eric said...

I look at that Cirrus "The Jet" rendering and one thing comes to mind: Dutch Roll.

paul said...

Dutch roll=install yaw dampner.

Gunner said...

Dutch Roll = ACTIVATE Yaw Damper!
;-)
Gunner

mirage00 said...

According to Mirage there should be hundreds of EA-500's built and waiting to have their pitot tubes and AVIO instrument panels installed. This way when the fixes come through they can stuff them and deliver the planes in just a few hours

Read my post again. Gosh, I love this blog!!!

I remain amused.

double 00

Ken Meyer said...

flyger wrote,

"Which year?

I mean that seriously. The mere fect they think they can get it done this year shows they haven't a clue what it will take."


In fairness, I seem to recall that you predicted in July 2006 that the Eclipse would not be certified until at least 2007.

Your incorrect previous time estimates suggest perhaps it is you that has no clue what it will take :)

Ken

JetProp Jockey said...

Speaking of Type Certification . . .

Did it every occur to anyone that if the shortcomings of the AVIO system had been determined (or admitted) earlier, there probably would not be a TC or any delivered aircraft today.

Gunner said...

JPJ-
Possible. As far as I'm concerned, flyger was correct a year ago. The plane Eclipse is promising has yet to be certified.
Gunner

Bonanza Pilot said...

Gunner....trying to argue with M00 reminds me of the old saying...never argue with an idiot, they will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience! The sad part is that when Baghdad Bob, I mean Mirage sees the implosion at Eclipse he will just disappear.

I don't know if this counts as a prediction but I think Dayjet implodes first...then Eclipse has to reprice based on the real volume that they can sell. How about a category for the selling price of the Eclipse at the end of 2008 (in 2008 dollars, not all these future dollar b.s.) I say we are well over 2 million by the end of 2008...I will say 2.2 million.

EclipseOwner387 said...

BP,

Now you are speaking my language. With that prediction of $2.2M it is time to buy before the big price increase!!! Thanks for pointing out how smart the early buyers really are afterall.

Bonanza Pilot said...

The Cirrus jet looks great...but in some ways they are learning from Eclipse. They took 100K unsecured deposits from people a while ago...used that money to start funding development. They only have a mockup...and are talking 3 to 5 years to deliver (not betting on 3!) They also are talking a new price range of up to 1.2 million....if Diamond does the Djet at 1.4 and has it delivered next year, the market might be pretty full by the time Cirrus arrives. I do have concerns over the Vtail..the Bonanza had some structural issues with flutter etc...had to be really careful when repainting etc...hopefully Cirrus will have learned from those mistakes. It is interesting that Beech doesn't sell anything with a Vtail anymore.

Bonanza Pilot said...

EO387...if, and that is a big if...you get a working aircraft delivered to you, it will be a great deal. Just understand that you are taking a hell of a lot of risk to get that return...I agree you are buying a 2.2 million dollar aircraft for 1.5 million or less...of course if you look at the risk adjusted rate of return it isn't the home run investment you describe. There is a very real chance that you could end up as an unsecured creditor at a bankrupt company and loose everything....it is a big risk - which implies a big return if you win!

I do wish you the best of luck, I want you to have a great aircraft...I would take delivery by the way...VFR, no pitot..I don't care...I want to have possession of something just in case....the fuel to fly it back to ABQ for fixes would be worth it.

Gunner said...

EO-
I know your comments are somewhat tongue in cheek to an extent. None of us has a problem (I hope) with the fact that you're successfully trading in Eclipse "Futures". If that's all this company was about, there wouldn't be a Blog.

What our issues are is what the Company is doing to the future of aviation; to user fees, investment availability and lowered expectations of aircraft, for instance. That's where the real bone of contention exists.

Besides, if Eclipse raises their price to $2.2 mill (which I think is probably still too low to keep them afloat, given their obvious inefficiencies of manufacture), their order book will dry up quicker than a spruce twig in a forest fire. This aircraft simply can't compete with the Mustang for value.
Gunner

The Real Frank Castle said...

Thanks, bill e. Good to be back.

This moo fella really has the transmitter tuned in ! He's hot on that frequency, moreso than Kenny.

Methinks he might be getting some CB interference. Ha!

hey Moo-boy. Are you in line for one of these POS, or are you an employee ?

I bet the employees all have an RFID chip implanted, along with taking the secret oath of the Eclipse Shadow Group, an ancient sect of the faithful since 1876, vowing to hold fast to the beliefs of Vern and Kenny.

How's that for conspiracy ?

mirage00 said...

Gunner....trying to argue with M00 reminds me of the old saying...never argue with an idiot, they will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience! The sad part is that when Baghdad Bob, I mean Mirage sees the implosion at Eclipse he will just disappear.

Now that's intelligent... name calling when you have no argument. Too bad "Air America" went under; I could see you working for them.

I remain amused.

The Real Frank Castle said...

I think the best way to settle this is to talk Mr. Jack Pelton into a copycat setup similar to Saturn.

Saturn has two other competitors cars on their lots to test drive, along with theirs. Gutsy, yeah.

Look for an owner willing to sell right after delivery, take one of the POS's to Indy, and park it out by Delivery, alongside a Mustang.

Oh, I know. I preached about leaving Mustang out of it. WTH, forget that. It's time to have some fun.

So, let people climb in the POS, maybe even take 'em for a ride. Then they find out the real shortcomings of the POS. Watch their faces light up after taking a trip in a real jet, the Mustang.

Mr. Pelton would probably have to use the services of the Cessna Shadow Group, to eliminate any paper trail that might connect them to the purchase of a POS.

Kenny said;
"Customers are getting $3 million Mustang performance ("Champagne"), but at $1.6 million (the "beer budget"). Champagne on a beer budget. What more could you want? :)"

A real aircraft. When the POS can consistently show TRUE performance day in and day out, you may rightfully make that claim. Until then you have remained as I have previously described you.

Moo-boy said:
"Everything you know regarding finance was probably learned from Quickbooks. Some friendly advice, you should stick with what you know."

YOU shouldn't stick your stupid nose out like that. Stan has his own business. DO YOU ?!?

STAN has been in aviation since before I was a twinkle in my daddy's eye. HAVE YOU ?!?

You should stick with what you know. Nothing.

Bug off, moo-boy.

The Real Frank Castle said...

More on the Transmitter story, in case you folk think it's a hoax !!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheila_Bilyeu

mirage00 said...

Frank,

I'm not employee.

I love this blog though, angry dinosaurs roaming the land, stomping anything that threatens their existence. It's quite amusing.

Mere longevity is a good thing for those who watch Life from the side lines. For those who play the game, an hour may be a year; a single day's work an achievement for eternity.
Gabriel Heatter

I remain amused

double 00

redtail said...

More unintellegence from Uncle Frankie....

redtail said...

Frankie's got more to fear... He's probably unhireable if he loses this job. He's the real dinosaur.

mirage00 said...

YOU shouldn't stick your stupid nose out like that. Stan has his own business. DO YOU ?!?

STAN has been in aviation since before I was a twinkle in my daddy's eye. HAVE YOU ?!?

You should stick with what you know. Nothing.


Easy now Francis, I'm just trying to point out that unless anyone has inside access to Eclipse Aviations financials they should not make comments one way or another.

Yeah Yeah Yeah, we all know about Stan and his "back in the day" stories....

My grandfather sold fruit from a corner stand for 50 years. Does that make him a business owner? I guess I should ask for his opinion regarding Eclipse's financial stability.

I remain amused

double 00

Stan Blankenship said...

Have to admit, the Cirrus Jet is gorgeous. Looks like it was designed by a 4th year aero student, futuristic and takes advantage of known aerodynamic principles like the V-tail which theoretically has lower drag and lighter weight.

Cirrus recognizes the value of style. My wife sees the line up of Cirrus airplanes at Oshkosh and wants to learn to fly one. She is not alone, Cirrus styling has convinced many to take to the skies.

But any deviation from convention brings risk. To avoid risk, Cessna sticks to extremely pedestrian designs. In the 60's Richard Ten Eyck provided a flair to the Cessna products. He's not around today.

If Cessna has a stylist on board they might let him/her mess with the interiors, but engineers rule the roost on basic design. Any sense of flair is tempered with risk, safety, cost and similar arguements that blunt the edge on style.

The new Cessna 4-place is a case in point. Even many inside Cessna are not happy with the way the airplane looks.

By deviating from convention, Cirrus is taking a risk. If they can pull of their futuristic design, they will bring in a lot sales just on the appearance.

I wish them luck.

mirage00 said...

Have to admit, the Cirrus Jet is gorgeous. Looks like it was designed by a 4th year aero student, futuristic and takes advantage of known aerodynamic principles like the V-tail which theoretically has lower drag and lighter weight.

Wow Stan, we agree! I think it's terrific myself. I'm kind of disappointed though, I was hoping for a cirrusjetcritic.com website.

I remain amused.

double 00

BigJim said...

Interesting Cirrus design concept. I look at the pictures and immediately think high-alpha compressor stall. Stalls at idle power could be interesting.

airtaximan said...

Stan, et als...

How absolutely pathetic that some here would "take solice" in a "cirruscritics" blog.

From folks that are so quick to accuse everyone here of "hating eclipse" - imagine the hatred associate with hoping for a critic for a new jet program. Imagine the psycology it takes to love e-clips while hating other programs.

Cirrus is a great company - their heritage is the antithisis of e-clips. Anyone in aviation knows this. They began in a barn, making homebuilt planes. The company the die-hards love so much starting in as a computer industry executive flying his Cessna around dreaming about a flying computer to satisfy his personal needs. All the BS out of e-clips has been "justification" for a guy who wanted a flying computer. The revolution has been dead for a long time. His personal dream lives on, and through the die-hards, part of his dream is the demise of others, which provides solace.

If they had a truly competitive product, they would not need solace.

If they did what they said, they would not bad-mouth those who have worked hard to build a truly remarkable success story in aviation - the Klapmeiers.

They understand value.

Their plane kills the e-clips. Single engine or not, they reportedly have hundreds of deposits already.

I can see why a drive-by-die-hard would hope for a Cirruscritic blog... perhaps he should start one. I'm sure of two things:

1-cirrus would listen
2-cirrus would react by doing something positive.

Can't say that for e-clips. No way.

Cirrus started in a barn and produces 700 planes a year now. Vern started by calling the industry names and produces 20 airplanes a year now, after 9 years and $1billion burn and counting.

Should tell you something, right there.

airtaximan said...

JPJ,

"Did it every occur to anyone that if the shortcomings of the AVIO system had been determined (or admitted) earlier, there probably would not be a TC or any delivered aircraft today."

anyone who deos not believe this was a well planned scam is an idiot.

BTW, its ongoing... there are more issues, alredy known before, that are popping up. These too would have stopped TC and PC.

Imagie a quality system that achieves PC and a little while later its admitted that certain humidity conditions freeze the pitot -and this has happend before in flight test...

Scary stuff...

Its always been about the deposits, and the investors money... always.

mirage00 said...

Cirrus started in a barn and produces 700 planes a year now. Vern started by calling the industry names and produces 20 airplanes a year now, after 9 years and $1billion burn and counting.

I can hear the violins playing as I read that... Cirrus has criticized the old aviation technology from day one! They mocked the ability of our current aviation manufactures almost on a daily basis.

This is why I love this blog. Keep up the good work!

I remain amused.

double 00

Gunner said...

"Cirrus has criticized the old aviation technology from day one!"

Thanks for making our point. We have no problem with criticism of current mainstream aircraft companies; but if you talk the talk, you'd best walk the walk. The Klapmiers did and do; Vern failed.

We have no problem with "revolutionary" designs. Just don't try to sell us half finished abortions and call it "revolutionary".

You're dismissed now. Nappie time, I think.
Gunner

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
cherokee driver said...

niner zulu

This is from ainonline.com;

"The mock-up’s instrument panel is laid out for the same two-screen architecture in the Cirrus SR22, though an avionics supplier hasn’t been chosen.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Fantastic bit of marketing which Cirrus have provided there. Very stylie. I hope if flies nicer than the SR20 though.

I have about 6 hours in the SR20, but was really disappointed in the lack of control feel.

They obviously missed the control force gradients required by FAR 23 by a pretty wide margin. Rather than aerodynamically fix the problem (would have required a pretty radical modification and probably set the certification back) and make a sweet plane with "feel", they just used springs to artificially hit the numbers.

I think this a real shame. I wonder whether this approach would have been certified back in the 60's and early 70's when the FAA had a ton of light aircraft experience.

The planes which stand out for me are those with the nicest control balance - T-6, RV-4, Jodel D11, Cessna 182.

Combined with a high wing loading, and too few ponies, the SR20 felt to me like it would be a pretty easy plane to get behind the power curve, and get bitten on approach, hard - where the parachute won't help. The NTSB records would tend to support that opinion.

To me the Diamonds have a similar control force issue, but only in the rudder where the force gradients are too high for my taste.

I thought Cirrus's fit and finish is also pretty sloppy for a quarter of a million bucks and up. After a year the interiors start to look pretty shabby.

Firewall forward Cirrus scrimped on the P clamps. Wiring harnesses are very poorly supported, and will likely create problems once they have vibrated for a while.

Still these are at least all honest mistakes/ decisions driven by the commercial pressures.

I hope that Cirrus jet retains that configuration. It sure looks cool. Getting the engine outside the fuselage is probably going to help a lot in the 1309 system safety assessment.

That jet instrument panel won't look nearly as nice by the time it is certified, and has a few placards stuck on :)

cj3driver said...

Another Mustang N50HS the "Sporty's" plane flew away today. Serial # 14 fley yesterday. Looks like Cessna will make the 1st half goal and appears to be "on track" for the promised 40 planes this year.

Sorry, No big suprise here though.

airtaximan said...

mirage-00

The Klapmeiers started in a barn... something tells me they were not spending their time running aorund "mocking the industry", as you say.

But hey, perhaps you really know more about Cirrus than the rest of us - or did you just make that up too?

I think you amuse yourself.

Jim Howard said...

Will Cirrus go with the G-1000 for their Jet?

That's got to be a tough decision. The Columbia experience shows that given a choice, nobody will choose Avidyne over Garmin.

On the other hand dropping Avidyne sort of discredits their piston singles to a certain extent.

Where is Piper in all this? Their jet is somewhat larger and can have a potty, but costs ~1 million more than Cirrus.

All this is very interesting.

cj3driver said...

Stan or FC, Please add, Equity research firm Boenning & Scattergood, to the EOY predictions. (as a sidenote) .

This is from the June 1, article in E5C.

“At the Aviation Insurance Association conference, Eclipse Aviation president and CEO Vern Raburn said that the company plans to deliver 250 airplanes this year. That number is less than the earlier projection of 402, provided to AIN on March 5. Eclipse is busy implementing a new production process, he added, which has been spurred by new managers running the production department. This includes former Ford manufacturing expert Todd Fiero, who joined Eclipse in early March.

Equity research firm Boenning & Scattergood, in a May 11 research report on Eclipse 500 avionics display supplier Innovative Solutions & Support, questioned Eclipse’s numbers. “Based on previously published data,” the report noted, “it appears that CEO Vern Raburn has a propensity to over promise and under deliver, and while we appreciate his enthusiasm and lofty goals we need to take a more realistic view of what Eclipse can accomplish over the next year.

“Furthermore, we learned that Eclipse would not manufacture all 2,400 airplanes in its backlog; rather, it will take a more measured approach and gauge customer and market demand. We are now estimating that Eclipse will deliver 170 airplanes in C2007, 500 airplanes in C2008 and 700 airplanes in C2009. We believe Eclipse will make every effort to reach the 500-airplane-per-year mark since that is its break-even point.”

IS&S declined to answer AIN’s questions about the Eclipse contract. The Boenning & Scattergood report on publicly traded IS&S noted that it believes the Eclipse contract will provide $31 million in revenues during Fiscal Year 2008. IS&S’s most recent Securities and Exchange Commission quarterly 10-Q report did not mention the Eclipse contract or any risk factors associated with any of its avionics programs.”

The article also states that s/n 62 started construction in mid May.

BTW – $31 mil divided by 500 = $62,000 per aircraft. I don’t know which piece of the Aviong puzzle IS&S is But that seems like a lot, when there are planes going out the door at $1 mil.

cj3driver said...

FC, if you decide to add a Mustang column to the EOY projection, I predict 48.

WhyTech said...

Stan and M00 said:

"Have to admit, the Cirrus Jet is gorgeous. Looks like it was designed by a 4th year aero student"

Different strokes for differnt folks: looks like a toy to me, as do the other Cirrus models - right out of a Revel model kit.

Give me a Citation 3 or CJ3 - looks like a real airplane!

WT

Stan Blankenship said...

whytech,

You have to think in terms of the mindset of a 4th year aero student.

He/she is an idealist, not a realist.

WhyTech said...

Stan said:

"You have to think in terms of the mindset of a 4th year aero student.

He/she is an idealist, not a realist. "

Yep. Got it.

WT

The Real Frank Castle said...

CJ3driver sez;

"FC, if you decide to add a Mustang column to the EOY projection, I predict 48."

Yea, well, don't bet yer socks yet.

(Yes, I know he did not address me. He addressed flightcenter. I've been watching long enough to know that.)

cj3driver said...

Frank,

Higher or lower?

The Real Frank Castle said...

After looking it over, I, too, like the Cirrus. I agree with Stan. Sometimes the "dinosaurs tend to play the safety too much, and good looks suffer for safety, longevity, maintenance, etc.

Hell, after 5-8 years in the air, most jets are going to be refurbed anyhow. Be a little more cutting edge, and make a better name for your product.

Let the kids design it. Hell, they'll be the ones flying the skies black, remember ?

freedomsjamstarts (huh??) sez;

"I hope if flies nicer than the SR20 though."

Yea, good comparison. Most people hope the Mustang flies better than the low-line 172, too. duhh.

The Real Frank Castle said...

Sorry, cj3, my refresh rate ain't too good.

They might be on track, depends on how many turn back at delivery, and how quick they can fix the squalks.

cj3driver said...

On Reuters today;

"Florida firm launching air taxi service
By Tom Brown
MIAMI (Reuters) - A Florida-based company hopes to take regional business travel to new heights later this summer with the launch of an air-taxi service featuring a small executive jet for people on less than a super-rich budget….”
“…It will start its Monday-to-Friday service with a fleet of just 10 planes since the aircraft, with a fair share of initial glitches, have been slow rolling off Eclipse's all-new assembly line...”
“…There are skeptics who question DayJet's business model and pricing policy, which could see customers paying as much as $4 for every mile they fly. But Iacobucci said he sees DayJet turning a profit within nine to 12 months of launch and a good possibility he will wind up taking the company public….”

Ed is quoted to say,

“He hopes to launch the service in late August.”

At least Ed is hopefull…..

“DelayJet - The more you pay, ...the less you wait.”

Metal Guy said...

Mirage00,

Are you even vaguely confident of Eclipses claims? I repeat:

I’ll wager you $1000 that Avio NG is not certified by the end of the 3rd quarter [2007] (with a certified and operationally approved FMS).

Are you “amused” or “just amusing”?

Stan can hold the cash.


P.S. Full functionality as initially advertised will probably be closer to 3rd quarter 2008, at which point it just starts to compare with already existing G1000 functionality found in other platforms.

I personally think common sense says the Mustang will make a much better air taxi platform and the smaller single engine jets will make substantially better personal jets.

These avionics slips are going to put Eclipse in a major competitive disadvantage as it will take so long for them to actually complete the aircraft.

They are going to get crushed from above and pushed out from below.

Time is of the essence for their business model and they have lost all advantages in this regard.

Mirage00?

mouse said...

EClipse Owner... Do not get to excited about having an early plane. If the company goes belly up you early guys are stuck with unsupported playground apparatus...

paul said...

I'll never understand people more concerned about how an airplane looks than how it functions. That's why Lockheed got the contract for the JSF and Boeing lost out.
If a brick painted sh+t brown can get me where I want to quickly, safely and cheaply, I'll be happy to get on board.
It's hard to see an airplane at 35.000 ft anyway and I don't care if I impress the bag smashers at the terminal.
I'm talking about the Cirrus, not the Eclipse's crappy paint job. That's just the poor workmanship that you can see, there's plenty more under the skin.

flyger said...

Ken Meyer said...

In fairness, I seem to recall that you predicted in July 2006 that the Eclipse would not be certified until at least 2007.

Your incorrect previous time estimates suggest perhaps it is you that has no clue what it will take :)


One, I've made no such claim. Do you just make stuff up? WTF?

Two, it really isn't certified, is it? No FIKI, no avionics that really work, not the final aerodynamics, not a functional pitot/static, and so on. So even what you made up and claimed was incorrect seems more correct to me!

Again, personal attacks are the last refuge of the weak mind. Maybe, just maybe, you'll spend less time belittling posters and more time addressing the issues.

flyger said...

mirage00 said...

Cirrus has criticized the old aviation technology from day one!


Name one new technology they developed for their planes. All the stuff they use is "old technology".

Cirrus is a great integrator of existing technologies, exactly what an airframe manufacturer needs to do. Eclipse thought they were in the "aviation technology invention business", but that's misguided. They wasted a lot of thier time fooling with stuff that ain't ready instead of just building a damn plane.

Are the owners in waiting actually saying "Eclipse, please take longer to add more untested crap to my airplane".

I remain amused.

You must not be a position holder. Neither am I, so I can be amused, too!