Wednesday, June 13, 2007

From AVweb - An Update

June 12, 2007

Eclipse Aircraft says its Avio NG avionics package for the Eclipse 500 very light jet is progressing through testing at a pace that is slightly behind schedule, but the system has been flown on one jet. A second Avio NG-equipped 500 will fly later this month.

The company believes it has identified and resolved a pitot/AOA system icing problem discovered in testing that resulted in loss of pitot pressure in both the left and right primary flight displays. A new system design has been submitted to the FAA for certification this month. Affected customers can seek retrofits in July.

A new design intended to address fatigue cracks found in the outer layer of the windshield and side window has led to increased inspection and replacement intervals (inspection every 300 flights and replacement at 1,500 and 600 flights for windshield and side windows, respectively). The certification for the new window designs begins this month.

Physical modifications to the aircraft for enhanced performance continue and certification for those is expected "soon." The first aircraft to incorporate all enhanced performance packages (S/N 39) is still in the production phase. Retrofits of previously completed aircraft will be scheduled beginning in July.

Following an announcement at EBACE of a European order for 180 aircraft (120 firm and 60 options), Eclipse Aviation now says its single certified flight training device will soon be installed at Albuquerque, N.M. Training sessions are expected to begin this July, when the company's new training facility at Albuquerque Double Eagle II airport is slated to open. The company aims to wipe out the training backlog "by the end of summer."

JetProp Jockey provided the heads up on this story and added, "everything is ALMOST fixed (Seems like nothing is officially fixed, but who's sweating the details).

58 comments:

Shane Price said...

Mirage said, in defence of changes to the windscreen design,

"I'm not sure. How many times has the shuttle tanks been modified?"

I ask

Do the FAA certify NASA designs?

Should NASA certify the Eclipse?

and finally

How many astronauts does it take to fly an Eclipse?

Hang on, don't answer that. One of the Drive By mob might take me seriously.

Shane

AlexA said...

Two unsubstantiated rumors this morning:

Toyota ABDO is in talks to acquire Eclipse. Based on the source negotiations have been ongoing for almost 6 months. Any insight would be appreciated.

Off-topic- Also heard this morning that Diamond Aircraft is having problems with the ducted fan and compressor stalls at high angles of attack. According to the source there is no way the FAA will certify the aircraft without major redesign. I’m curious if depositors get regular updates from Diamond or if some one else is able to verify the info.

From the King of Drive-bys

Stan Blankenship said...

The company is still chasing that elusive carrot and dragging the faithful with them.

The biggest red flag in this report concerns the window and windshield. What's this going to involve?

Imagine taking deliver of your new jet today. You have been patiently waiting for 6 years and the company tells you, give us your money and come back in six months and we will:

- Rip out the old avionics and install new.

- Rip out all the glass and then re-install everything.

- Add landing gear fairings.

- Add larger tip tanks.

- Add a bullet fairing.

- Scab an extension onto your elevators and rudder.

- Fix the pitot system.

- Complete the icing protection systems pending results from the tests.

To the faithful - If your local high end automobile dealership made such an offer, what would you tell them?

Gunner said...

All that news and not ONE SINGLE item that's been resolved yet. Literally EVERY [known] problem will be resolved "on Tuesday".

"The certification for the new window designs begins this month."

Depositors, awake. Do you not remember Vern (and others) denying any design flaw and throwing the installers under the bus on this one? Yet, they continued to build and "deliver" this very design, took @300 of your Progress Payments and then announced it would be a "perfect time" to SLOW production!

If you've been lied to on this, what else are you being lied to about?
Gunner

osborne83 said...

Alexa's rumor of issues with high AOA engine operability in the D-Jet certainly seems plausible. The aircraft, as shown in the publicity photos, has a buried engine with two S-ducts leading from the inlets to the engine interface. While S-ducts are common, they are notoriously difficult to get right. In-flight, high AOA is the difficult condition. On the ground, tailwind or crosswind ops can be the difficult situation.

And no, the FAA will not certify an aircraft with major fan or compressor stall issues. Not only can those result in engine operability issues, but they can also result in catastrophic fan or compressor failure.

Gunner said...

Alexa-
The wing root intake design of the D-Jet will require some real engineering expertise, IMHO. Not just in terms of intake, but for ingestion also. Still, they took that design path when others were readily available, so I have to believe they're aware of the hurdles and believe the design more than viable.

However, you claim the FAA won't certify. Strange that the FAA would already state that since the Jet has not even hit their desks yet; it's going thru Canadian Certification first. Diamond has had a great track record with this path.

As to whether Diamond communicates with us properly, that depends. They certainly inform us of benchmark accomplishments; but they fail to spam us with repetitive "news" on what they'll accomplish on Tuesday.

I think, once you get used to Eclipse's "transparent" approach, Diamond would be pretty mundane in terms of its progress reports.
Gunner

sparky said...

I thought the press release was too long, hence the "Readers Digest" version below:

"We're REALLY close to figuring out how to build an airplane, send more E-posits"

mouse said...

And then when the cockpit skins are stiffened to reduce the stresses on the transparencies, where will the next stress riser appear?

The upper cockpit skin has always been way to flexible, and the fit was always a big issue when we built the first airplanes. The join of this cap was labor intensive, and all of the holes were pre-drilled adding to the issue of alignment/fit problems.

Also heard that the new number of planes planned to be produced is 240 by the end of the year, by Fiero.

Wonder how this number was calculated, and what assumptions are being used. I'm surprised a 2nd location has not been announced for assembly yet.

Bonanza Pilot said...

Very interesting rumor on the Toyota bid..they have been around aviation for a while, and they also are fiercely competitive with Honda. That said why buy Eclipse? They would be better off buying Cessna. How would you value Eclipse - based on money poured in (wishful thinking) the value of the order book...or the value of the actual certified product and production facilities. It is an interesting intellectual exercise.

On another thought...perhaps it is time to start keeping another spreadsheet to go with the one tracking orders..this one would track new issues, existing issues and fixed issues. It seems like new problems are appearing at a much faster rate than the old ones are being solved....the "problem backlog" is rising as fast as the order backlog!

Gunner said...

Toyota:
Now there's a COMPANY, brothers and sisters. One needs to ask what they'd be interested in purchasing from Eclipse:

Management? OK, maybe Peg Bilson, but they could easily hire her away.

Technology? Certainly not FSW; Toyota is an engineering company; they'd immediately see that was little more than publicity hype.

Location? The concessions Vern received from AZ would pale compared to what Toyota can get from MI, AL, NC etc.

Order Book? Bwa-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha

Hard Assets? Let's not forget the Billion in investment. We don't REALLY believe Bill, UBS and others don't have some claims on the company assets, do we?

Design? I think Toyota would scrap Le Petit in about a heartbeat, recognizing (to build it right) they'd never be able to sell it, given the competition.


Still, one can never tell.
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

alexa,

I would tend to doubt your rumor on a compressor stall on the D-Jet.

There is a lot of airflow coming off the bottom of the fuselage at high angles of attack and I suspect the inlets are being supplied with more than ample air, even in a slide slip condition.

Ken Meyer said...

The article describes a number of significant milestones:

1. Avio NG has flown on one jet and will soon fly on a second. I seem to recall naysayers saying that alone wouldn't happen until next year.

2. The pitot problem was identified and a fix created. Incidentally, I can add that they came up with a very clever way of duplicating the problem, and that presumably was 90% of the battle in fixing this very rare occurrence.

3. The windshield problem has been largely resolved. The development of a simple visual observation with prism would be an enormous improvement even if they hadn't come up with a way to dramatically lengthen the inspection and duty cycles. I'm told the inspection intervals will be further increased as fatigue testing is accomplished and further fleet experience is acquired.

4. The first aero-mod equipped Eclipse is rolling down the assembly line, just as promised.

5. The first training device is approved and ready for installation. The new training facility is opening next month (you can see what it looked like in April here).

The article left out that the Gainesville Service Center has been certified and is now operating. Albany and Van Nuys will be next to open.

All in all, there is a fair amount of good news coming out of Eclipse. No doubt that bothers some of you.

Ken

FlightCenter said...

Toyota's management style is fundamentally incompatible with Eclipse's management style.

I put the probability of Toyota buying Eclipse at about 10 to the minus 9.

Toyota is much more fundamentally aligned with Cessna, but Cessna has no real reason to sell. They are doing just fine on their own, thank you.

Toyota and Cessna have been in talks (initiated by Toyota) on and off for years, at least as far back as 1998.

I put the probability of Cessna selling to Toyota at 10 to the minus 4.

However, consider Cessna signing some sort of manufacturing deal with Toyota.

One possible scenario, Cessna leverages their wealth of market knowledge to define the aircraft. Cessna sells and services the aircraft and manages the overall relationship with the customers.

Toyota builds the aircraft...

Now that could be interesting.

Gunner said...

Ken-
Of all the milestones you mention, only the GNV center opening is in the present....and, I'm sorry for my skepticism, but your reports have been WAY wrong before?

Every other item is a patch "in the pipeline" for a design or process flaw that Eclipse CREATED in the first place.

You're right. That does "bother me". They shouldn't have this many MAJOR design flaws this early in the game; and they certainly shouldn't be announcing weekly that they're fixed, when NOT ONE is certified.
Gunner

FlightCenter said...

The official FAA website did not show any changes in the number of Eclipse aircraft delivered this week. That number stands at 15.

However, Eclipse serial #16 filed paperwork to register the aircraft to UND aerospace foundation.

The FAA database shows 1 new Mustang delivered in the last week for a total of 6 Mustangs.

For the first time, the FAA database does not show a CofA for this latest Mustang delivery.

Also, Mustang serial #7 filed paperwork to register the aircraft to Frederick Furth.

WhyTech said...

fligtcenter said:

"I put the probability of Cessna selling to Toyota at 10 to the minus 4. "

Could be, but remember that Cessna is owned by Textron, and companies this size often will sell business units when the price makes sense in terms of whats good for the shareholders. Depends a lot on whether Textron managment/board see Cessna as a "core" or "strategic" asset, or something less than that.

WT

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Ken,

Good news, REAL, actual, verifiable good news does not bother me in the slightest.

BS news, manufactured PR news, or juvenile claims of full credit for a partially completed job, now that bothers me.

But if 'almost' certifed, and 'will be' promises are enough for you, given the history of outright lies, fabrications and obfuscation coming out of the 505, then bask in the glory of the almost airplane that will someday be finished, after all, you deserve it.

How about that STC for the 135 kit? Nothing shows at the FAA, must be delayed paperwork right, the FAA's fault I am sure.

Wasn't DayJet supposed to be flying customers now?

How about that IMC?

How about that FIKI?

How about that Avio NfG?

How about those transparencies?

How about that new $400M?

And speaking of parsing, who wants to bet that when pressed in July (and August) as to why all those mods which Eclipse claimed "were submitted to the FAA for approval this month" in June are not done, Eclipse will say "...we clearly said they were submitted this month (comma) for approval by the FAA. We made no representation about when the FAA would approve them and can not be held accountable for any misunderstanding on the part of the faithful."

cj3driver said...

WT,

Cessna produced 4.2 Billion of Textron's 11 Billion last year. Cessna is most likely Textron's largest and most profitable asset.

Gunner said...

Perhaps Eclipse should start managing Cessna for Textron; if only to avoid a hostile takeover by Toyota. With Vern's innovative management approach he should be able to squeeze and extra 3 or 4 Bill out of that dinosaur without breaking a sweat.

Come to think of it, maybe he should start managing Toyota, now that he's integrated automotive manufacturing expertise into the ABQ skill set.
Gunner

cj3driver said...

I wonder if Toyota has talked to the Taiwanese about the SJ30. Maybe not enough water under the bridge yet (culturally), but business is business and it appears that Sino needs manufacturing help. I think it would be a good fit, add a G1000 panel, FJ44-3A 24 FADEC engines and single point refueling, lower the price by 1.5 to $4.9 mil (possible with volume ala Eclipse) and it will cut into the CJ market.

airtaximan said...

Ken:
you say...
"The article left out that the Gainesville Service Center has been certified and is now operating"

...on what?

airtaximan said...

I call BS on Alexa...

I do not think he heard anything about Diamond... and I do not think he heard anything about Toyota buying E-clips.

At least the issues were considered, and refected upon, to come to pretty much the same conclusion... both of his "rumors" make no sense.

Most of the rumors posted here about e-clips, in good faith, were debated and proven correct. Even some theories about what is really going on, contrary to Vern's statements, or to fill a void in transparency on what appeared to be an issue... we in fact proven correct.

Alexa seems to be posting nonesense, as smoke. But hey, maybe he did "hear" something and maybe he "believes it".

gadfly said...

'Ten thousand comedians out of work, and "Al" is trying to be funny.

gadfly

(And I was almost ready to believe every word.)

Gunner said...

Well I'll admit that Alexa DOES seem a bit hyper-focused on the D-Jet. Don't understand why, though. The D-Jet is a pretty clunky, conservative, single engine plane that they're gonna try to sell at 80% of the value of the ABQ Twinjet Wonder. And we all know Le Petit is quickly becoming the most successful aircraft in aviation history.

Leave it to the Austro-Canadians. What do they know about General Aviation anyway?
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

Further confirmation from an informed source, there has never even been a hint of a compressor stall in the D-Jet.

For those not familiar with a compressor stall, you will know it when you get one, but most will never experience the event.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

WonderJet-Twin Powers Activate!

RTH - Form of an annoying red colored bird.

Alexa - Form of a bucket of nonsense.

So now our very own Zan and Jan are resorting to total and obvious fabrication to derail the conversation.

That is funny - must be striking a nerve somewhere.

Who should we nominate to be the annoying blue space monkey?

I think Wavy-Lines-In-Desert....

AlexA said...

Gunner,

You are right I am focused on the D-Jet. When the details first emerged I thought it was a perfect aircraft for my personal use (90% of my trips are within Florida). I actually spent quite of bit of time talking to Diamond and was ready to pony up a deposit early in the program (unlike others on this Blog I can only be a one-jet family;). If my memory serves me correct they were taking $10,000 deposits to get in line (Sun-and-Fun 2004?). Projected price was under $900,000.

IMHO I think Diamond would have put a major crimp on Eclipse if the price point would have been at $995,000. The $1.4M is too close to Eclipse’s current price point to negatively effect Eclipse. There is a perceived value of having an extra engine and even with all the delays and problems Eclipse is way ahead in terms of delivering aircrafts (even with limited functionality).

The gentleman that shared the information on D-Jet this morning was also aware of the problems with the Vantage Jet (I thank my lucky stars I did not send them a deposit) before the info became public. I know some folks that took a beating even with the money in escrow due to bankruptcy laws. Stan recently made a posting that they are not having air ducting problems which would be welcomed news for everyone, let’s hope its true.

The other interesting item with D-Jet is the purchase agreement (contract). I always thought the Eclipse contract was extremely one sided and favored Eclipse. Diamond took a page out of the Eclipse playbook and went to town. Diamond does not commit to much in the agreement, not even final price.

It might take Cirrus to really shake up the market.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Mouse,

You said you heard 240 as the new, updated, reprogrammed, surely gonna be the number till we come up with another number, number of targetted deliveries for '07.

How do you suppose they propose to assemble about 200 planes which are not supposedly in construction yet (unless you read the press releases from last year), and deliver 224, in the remaining 201 calendar days of 2007.

They would literally need to complete, certificate, AND deliver one airplane, each day, for EVERY DAY that remains in 2007, starting two weeks ago.

If you use a more conventional 5-day work schedule with holidays off (presumably like those panzy 9-to-5'ers Vern was blasting recently), they would need to deliver almost 2 aircraft per day, EVERY WORK DAY, to meet the new, new, new, revised and updated schedule.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, I am the great and powerful OZ.

Gunner said...

Alexa said:
"The $1.4M is too close to Eclipse’s current price point to negatively effect Eclipse. There is a perceived value of having an extra engine"

Persackly why Diamond has to be a flash in the pan of The New Aviation Paradigm. How do they ever expect to sell a single at 80% of the price of a Luxury Twin like the EA-50X? Diamond will go down in flames to TeamABQ.

Smart money follows smart people. What could Christian Dries possibly know about aircraft manufacture or sales that Vern isn't a greater expert on? After all, Vern "invented" the VLJ, didn't he?

Come to think of it, Cessna made the exact same mistake, trying to sell an Eclipse class competitor at a million+ dollars more than Le Petit. Fools, all of them! Utter fools!
Gunner

Shane Price said...

Ken, in another one of his 'I've been told...' posts said:-

"I'm told the inspection intervals will be further increased as fatigue testing is accomplished and further fleet experience is acquired."

Questions:-

Who is 'telling' him?

What 'fleet'?

Why was this redesign needed?

When will the fatigue testing start/finish?

Where will we see all of this?

You understand.
Basic who/what/why/when/where stuff.

The kind of questions police ask about criminal activity.

Shane

Gunner said...

Shane-
I noted that "further fleet experience" clause also. Who's gonna be the Test Pilots for that "fleet"? Oops, we already know that answer; the same people who submit the crash reports that'll eventually render Windows Vista actually functional.....the End Users, that's who.

Mike Press' Eclipse is still blocked on FlightAware. Go figure!

Gunner

airtaximan said...

speaking of Mike Press...

He has not published his report in the last 2 months... I'm wondering why?

Controller is back up to 40 listings - I know, not definitive of anything, just indicative of something.

I'm perterbed. I thought everyone concluded that after TC the number of listings would go down... it been as low as 36 or so and as high as 43 or so... over the last 7,8 months or so.

Nothing seems to make that inventory go down, really.

There have already been more than 100 sales, reported by Press a few months ago - what is going on?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

A little more on delivery rate.

In order to squeeze out the latest suggestion of 240 deliveries in '07 (revised down from the claimed 400+ as recently as March of this year), Eclipse would have to instantly accelerate from 15 planes in the nine months since certification (0.05 planes per calendar day) to about the current production rate at Cirrus, who made about 700 planes last year.

In other words, after many years, Cirrus is only now making about 14 aircraft per week, or nearly 3 per work day (essentially 2 per calendar day).

All Eclipse has to do is from their current 0.05 planes per calendar day record to 2 planes per calendar day, a paltry 3600% improvement in production rate, instantly.

Should be a piece of cake for a company like Eclipse, you know, a piece of cake like FIKI, flight in IMC, avionics design and integration, structural integrity, transparency design, engine selection, vendor management and honest communication with the customer base.

Oh no I di'in't....

cj3driver said...

RE: Press's Eclipse and lack of info.

... it costs $970 to block your aircraft on flightaware! You would think he would be anxious to post actual flight data... being a salesman and all...

AlexA said...

Gunner,

You really need to lay off the caffeine. I’m sure that D-Jet will be great and you will enjoy it. Hopefully for you Diamond won’t change too many terms on your contract before you get your toys. I’ve heard you’ve been known to over react when things don’t go quite your ways. Ok ATM gunner needs help, your turn.

King of Drive Bys

mouse said...

Eclipse has nothing to sell to any potential buyer of the company. The entire company is in the hands of the vendors. Eclipse does not have sufficient tooling, no owned property, no contracts that are transferable, an unfinished design, and a location with no workforce.

Oh yeah, and a debt larger than many foreign countries with no ROI possible...

Perhaps an auction? May Ken will be a buyer, he is so proud of their accomplishments.

I wonder (not really) how much of the new NfG AVIO components are flying, and how much of it works? Vern never said it was working, he said it was flying... probably as cargo. :-)

In most cases flying the components or systems is a great start, but has no diect timeline to certification. The first EA-500 flew in '02 and it certified when? It was completed as advertised, when?

Perhaps Ken will move up his position so he can take one of these beautiful airplanes this year... Or maybe he's smarter than many give him credit for...

mouse said...

Is this the Eclipse blog or the D-Jet blog?

The only thing we all know for sure about Diamond is they have many models certified, produced in quantity, and flying all over the world. They do not sell on hype, in fact they remain quiet, and just keep moving along, scaring the Eclipse faithfuls.

All programs have setbacks and redesigns. The difference is all but one tend to keep their hype under control and work on their planes.

gadfly said...

Vern said something that I firmly believe, (gullible fly that I am) . . . Eclipse does not manufacture anything! He said it, I believe it. And there is adequate proof.

gadfly

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

Alexa said:
"I’ve heard you’ve been known to over react when things don’t go quite your ways."

Nope, only when people lie to me and try to pick my pocket. I'm funny like that. YMMV and obviously does. ;-)

BTW, Alexa. Have you seen N126DJ since its aborted attempt to fly west, GNV to Shreveport on June 3? Wonder what happened to that little bird?

Ooh, look. David Crowe's plane has similarly disappeared from FlightAware since the infamous Ski Flight Fiasco on 21 May. You'd think these guys would be more active.
Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

I am sure the recent deletion of Eclipse 500's from FlightAware is quite unrelated to the loads of criticism generated here by the laughably constsistent sub-RVSM Flight Level flights shown there.

Purely a coincidence I tells ya'.

Who wants to bet Vern is on the phone to Ed trying to get him to pull the DayJet planes?

AlexA said...

mouse said...
Is this the Eclipse blog or the D-Jet blog?

Mouse you are 100% right. But the boredom was overwhelming. You got four or five guys pouncing on the same teething problems which Eclipse encountered. Same mentality that beat Reginald Deny to a pulp. Take a look at Stan he mentioned the he would be shortly releasing information in a critical structural problem with the E500? Well Stan?

AlexA said...

Gunner said
“Nope, only when people lie to me and try to pick my pocket. I'm funny like that “

Must feel pretty dumb that those cheats were able to pick your pockets and then decided to give you the money back huh? NII

King of Drive Bys

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sparky said...

Ken,

do you o out of your way to make this easy.


1.) NG flew on an aircraft...no mention of it's functionality on the aircraft, just that it flew on one. You know that rubber dog crap they make in Hong Kong, it flies on aircraft also ken, want to guess it's value.

2.) pitot problem...eclipse did something clever and you don't announce it like the second coming has my BS meter pegged.

3.)how can eclipse fix a problem that doesn't exist? it was an install error, right. Are you just going to gloss over the fact that you are paying someone almost $1M to lie to you. Then again, given your history, lying comes easy to the ABQ crowd.

4.)Tuesday....coming down the line....planned...we're gonna'....sounds like what I get from my teenager when I ask about when he's going to clean his room.

5.) training device. It's about damn time!! you've got owners lined up and waiting.

Gunner said...

Alexa-
You are so right. Your pocket can't really be referred to as "picked" until you realize your money is gone. (Of course, I did say "tried to pick my pocket"). I should have followed your lead and just sent them some more!

"Teething Problems"....you just gotta love the Code Phrases.

In certain investment circles, a "teething problem" is a code phrase for an "alligator"; an investment that'll eat you live.

I like that; "Teething Problems". Poetic ring to it.
Gunner

gadfly said...

Here’s a suggestion:

The name, “Eclipse”, must have been chosen for good reasons. So, I would like to submit “Cicada” for the second model. The “Cicada” takes seventeen years to reach maturity, underground and out of sight. Then crawls up a tree, makes a lot of noise for a day or so, flies around (briefly), then we don’t hear from them again for another seventeen years.

More seriously, let’s hope that the two little “missing jets” are just holed up somewhere safe, waiting for the weather to clear . . . or something. It’s almost impossible to haul something that wide, on a “flat bed trailer”, back along I-40, to Albuquerque, to get them fixed.

gadfly

(There’s always concern when chicks first leave the nest.)

gadfly said...

“Teething problems” . . . we found a pacifier to be of help when the kids were little (No, Not for the customers, you silly!).

And then there’s always the “tooth fairy”. (But I think they’ll all tired of fairy tales.)

They’re not old enough to . . . No!, I take that back! They’ve been in development long enough that maybe “PoliGrip®” would help with the teething problems.

gadfly

(‘Sort of adds new meaning to things being all “gummed up”.)

gadfly said...

Alright, Ken, Alex, and Hawk (with the red empennage), . . . and you, too, “Double Ought”! Stop snickering!

It is below your official position.

You keep that up and you’ll lose credibility. And then where will this blogsite turn for ridicule, innuendo, and righteous indignation?

gadfly

(Enough! . . . already. I heard that! Now, go to your room! ‘Just wait ‘til your mother get’s home. She’s in no mood for this sort of thing, what with running the company and all.)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Thinking about the training announcement - basically will begin in July and be done by the end of summer.

Summer is over at the end of August around Labor Day right?

That leaves about 8 weeks (July and August) to clear the training backlog of the pilot\owners AND mentor pilots for the claimed 15 deliveries so far which is somewhere between say 30 and 45 pilots.

Eclipse claims it will deliver another 200 planes between now and the end of the year, that should be some 400-500 training slots, at about 2 weeks a piece as I recall, or about 800-1000 man weeks of training to take place between September and the end of 2007, or about 4 months.

Running a sim 24/7 with no failures, and with no delays, there are at most about 3000 hours of sim-time available (assuming ZERO downtime in the sim), that only allows between 6 and 7.5 hrs sim-time POSSIBLE for the number of pilots needed (excluding the extra demand from DayJet with its 5 pilots per plane, or basically 150 ADDITIONAL slots (if they get all 50 of their scheduled deliveries this year). Factoring DayJet into the equation suggests more like 4.5 to 5.5 hours POSSIBLE sim-time, again, assuming 100% utilization rate, 24/7 which we all know is basically not possible.

How is Eclipse going to take its' new, never been tested training system from zero to 700 pilots in the next 5 months?

Answer - not gonna happen.

As with all the other BS, the numbers simply do not add up.

Gunner said...

CWMoR-
Nobody's listening....at least, not The Faithful. They're tied up, listening to the strains from Rod Stewart, emanating from the 1970's out of ABQ:

"If I listened long enough to you
I'd find a way to believe that its all true
Knowing that you lied straight-faced while I cried
Still I look to find a reason to believe

If I gave you time to change my mind
I'd find a way just to leave the past behind
Knowing that you lied straight-faced while I cried
Still I look to find a reason to believe"


Rod should have titled it "Teething Problems". ;-)
Gunner

gadfly said...

Adding yet to Gunner's poem, my fine finned friend, you approach this entire thing with “logic”, and it just doesn’t work. Almost two years ago, I attended the fiftieth reunion of my Burbank High ‘55 graduation class, and it was good to see, among my many classmates, the “girl” who played the part(s) and voice(s) of “Alice” (in “Alice in Wonderland”) and “Wendy” (in “Peter Pan”), for Disney. She still looks good.

Both stories require the observer to “fantasize”, and enter into the “fantasy”. Once you do that, you realize you can “fly”, and go to “Never-Never-Land” . . . it’s actually quite easy. And you meet “Captain Hook”, and all the others. In the end, you realize that it’s all been a dream, without the slightest semblance of reality.

‘Got that?

gadfly

(“Off with their heads!”)

FlightCenter said...

CJ3 said,

"... it costs $970 to block your aircraft on flightaware! "

I bet Eclipse has negotiated a volume deal with FlightAware to block all the E500s. I wonder which path they took.

Brute force method - Eclipse purchasing guy to FlightAware:

How much would it cost to block this list of 200 N numbers? Can we make that happen for $10K? Ok, how about $20K?

OR

Finesse method - Eclipse 500 product manager to FlightAware:

Have I got a deal for you. You know that Eclipse is going to darken the sky with VLJs. We're going to be shipping more jet aircraft than anyone in history.

Just think how much money you could make if we included a free 6 month trial to FlightAware's blocking service for every new E500 aircraft coming off the line. It will be just like those XM or On-Star services included in new cars, almost everyone will renew.

On top of that, we'll strongly encourage the pilots to sign up, if you give us a finders fee of 10% on every new subscription. You'll be making close to a million bucks a year in new business.... (and we'll make some money and have a little privacy while we get that whole RVSM / performance mod thing straightened out...)

airtaximan said...

you guys have it all worng regarding flightaware..

Its the revolutionary model, here too...

e-clips informed flightaware that they own the N numbers and the aircraft data... so in reverse of convention, e-clips is demanding payment from flightaware dor displaying the proprietary e-clips aircraft data. Flight aware refused to pay, so the FAA and governmental agencies got involved, and put a cease and desist.

So, unfortunately, without filing with the FOIA, you are SOL>

The AMAZINGLY REVOLUTIONARY and guarantte compliant e-500 is impossible to track.

Makes a lot of sense to me...

buzzsaw said...

Gadfly, Airtaximan's post was intended as a joke...

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Albuquerque, NM -- June 13, 2007

Eclipse Aviation Corporation, non-manufacturer of the first and revolutionary Eclipse 500 Very Light Jet (VLJ) announced today what has long been suspected in aviation circles, admitting that the high-tech jet is actually a stealth biz-jet built using proprietary 'low observable' technology.

"We knew that our dinosaur competition and a very small and insignificant group of bloggers that absolutely nobody is paying any attention to, would be watching a certain website to track the revolutionary performance of our incredible jet, which I would like to say features line replaceable units, or as we like to call them at Eclipse, LRU's, yeah, it has lots of LRU's" said Eclipse CEO Vern Raburn during a recent weekend release from Saint Luke's Behavioral Health Center in Phoenix.

Continued Raburn "In order to prevent our dinosaur competition from learning any of our super double-top secret airplane ideas, we have made our plane so small that it will not actually give a primary radar return, and we paint them with a special stealthy paint that Kent (Board Member Kent Kresa) 'borrowed' for us."

"Now we no longer have to worry about anybody, our competition, those pesky bloggers, or even our faithful customers, being able to see the lack of, err, I mean, revolutionary, yeah revolutionay performance of our amazing little jet. Did I say it features what we call line replaceable units, LRU's, lots of LRU's - really cool."

A quick review of public records and flight tracks does inded suggest that Raburn was being his normal honest forthright and gracious self, as this reporter was unable to find any flight tracks for Eclipse 500 model aircraft, especially in the higher flight levels with RVSM requirements.

About Eclipse

Eclipse Aviation, non-manufacturer of the world's second or third very light jet, is in the business of sort-of designing, kind-of certifying and occasionally producing almost modern, somewhat affordable jet aircraft that will, someday, revolutionize the transportation market. The company is mis-applying advanced electronics systems, and mis-managing manufacturing and business practices to try to produce aircraft that cost half that of today's small jet aircraft (from many years ago), we really hope but have no actual clue if they will be significantly safer and easier to operate than those of today, and we keep telling people that they will have the lowest cost of ownership ever achieved in a jet aircraft, so it must be true right.

###

gadfly said...

Buzzsaw

Airshuttle and I are on the same side of the fence . . . but when it comes to satire, I never leave a tern unstoned. Besides, I had another target in mind.

And never take any of the sarcasm too seriously . . . you'll end up missing the point.

'Buzzing off!

gadfly

('Paranoid of flyswatters.)

planet-ex said...

"Eclipse Aviation now says its single certified flight training device will soon be installed at Albuquerque, N.M. Training sessions are expected to begin this July, when the company's new training facility at Albuquerque Double Eagle II airport is slated to open. The company aims to wipe out the training backlog "by the end of summer."

From Flight International - May 23, 2007:

"Meanwhile, in the USA, the first two full motion simulators, manufactured by Florida based Opinicus for type rating training will be delivered to Eclipse’s Albuquerque base in August, and they will be fully “up and running” by the end of the year, says McConnell."

Which is it?

Based on past experience with a company that has 36 simulators in one building, I tend to believe the last quote more than the first. Full motion simulators take time to install and certify - typically, months.