Thursday, July 19, 2007

Looking Back - Part 2

Lest these points get buried away in the comment section that gets read about as often as last week's newspaper, let us review the conclusions offered by mouse a few weeks ago on the engine change:

Eclipse claimed the 2003 engine change was due to the failure of Williams to produce a reliable engine that would meet the original specifications.

According to mouse, even if the engine had delivered the performance as specified, the empty weight of the airplane had grown to the point where the engine/airframe combination was no longer viable.

The discussion as to who designed the FADEC and whether this was the fault of the engine's reliability or lack of reliability, or whether in time, Williams could have worked the bugs out is irrelevant. The fundamental problem was not with the engine but the airframe.

When Vern was pointing his accusatory finger at Williams for his 2003 setback, it might have been more honest for him to have been standing in front of a mirror when he did the pointing.

Unfortunately, the Williams engine was the key to Eclipse business plan. The low cost, fuel sipping engines would enable for Eclipse to deliver low cost airplanes in high volumes enabling air taxi operators to fly with low per mile rates which in turn would generate new business for the air taxi market.

While this paper engine/airframe combination sparked an avalanche of orders for this too good to be true proposition, the reality of what is being produced in ABQ does not nearly meet the expectations the company laid out at the beginning of the program.

Take for instance the Oliver Masefield' October 2002 statements to Aviation Week:


"The whole airplane is a point design."

"Many aircraft get into an upward weight spiral during development but the Eclipse 500 is different."

"...the E22 engine launched the Eclipse on a downward weight spiral, where less weight led to less wing area and less weight again."

Sorry Oliver, you don't have the E22 engine, you don't have a "point design" and you are not in a "downward weight spiral." In fact you have an airframe designed for a 4,700 lb takeoff weight that is now pushing 6,000 lbs.

You don't get something for nothing. Mike Press reported his tire change at 100 hours which he thought might represent 140 landings counting the touch-and-goes during training. That's of course if you believe a T & G grinds off as much rubber as a full stop landing.

Today's airplane will be touching down about 10 knots faster than what Oliver designed pre-2003 and at weights around 1,000 lbs heavier. The kinetic energy the tires and brakes must absorb goes up with the square of the velocity; weight is a linear function. Just putting some rough numbers into a handheld calculator indicates about 35% more landing energy into today's configuration than Oliver's pre-2003 wet dream.


The faithful may argue, Oliver had margins in the equipment to allow for growth. That is not what he told Av Week in 2002 and had the reporter asked if 100+ landings would be acceptable for the airplane, I am quite sure Oliver would have answered with a resounding "No!"

And it does not matter if JetComplete is in the equation or not, the customers will be picking up the tab for the brakes and tires plus suffer the inconvenience of dealing with the service requirements at these premature intervals.

Off in the morning to OshKosh B'Gosh...see you all at the Eclipse tent...I will be easy to spot...the one in the sun glasses.

277 comments:

1 – 200 of 277   Newer›   Newest»
Stan Blankenship said...

From my evening mail:

To: eclipsecritic@earthlink.net

Subject: The new eclipse plane...inside information

Date: Jul 19, 2007 9:27 PM

Dear Stan,

As a former Eclipse employee I have some information about Eclipses new plane. This has been a top secret assignment and they have a prototype that will be shown at Oshkosh next week. It is a V tail single engine 4 seat plane. The engine mounts on top of the fuselage and they have built and flown one so far.

This is so secret apparently the board does not even know about it as Vern has taken this project himself.

The new plane has no tip tanks, the landing gear is the same, the stabilizers in the rear are almost as big as a wing and the test pilots are rumored to love it. They have built it and flown it on some island out east and no one can talk about it. The unveiling will happen at Oshkosh with a mock up display and then they will make a dramitic entrance with the new prototype.

Thanks,

xxxxxxxx

PS It was the worst job I ever had.

Gunner said...

AirTaximan-
May the record show, I was among the first to buy off on your prediction, before it became rumor, before it will become fact.

Alexa-
Hope Eclipse is not gonna hype one of those single engine Death Traps. Nahhhhh, Eclipse is above hyping its products. They speak for themselves.

DieHards: Wait, watch, bend over and Spin-n-n-n-n.
Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The Fish still says no new plane at OSH for Eclipse.

Expect to see an Avio NfG plane, maybe even a cool instrument panel mockup running on a couple Mac's under the table.

Expect a lot of hullabaloo about the AD being lifted 'anyday', and still possibly not occurring during OSH.

Maybe exoect an announcement about Jet-inComplete (new pricing and perhaps some customer testimonials) - probably something about training (getting better, with no real proof), and a new HUGE order announcement (that has probably been on the cooked-books somewhere for 3 or 4 years).

If Eclipse does announce a new plane with the first one so totally F'd up and so far from delivery, even the EAA'ers will chase Vern off.

This message brought to you by the Maxwell Smart Aircraft Company - Missed it by THAT much.

Gunner said...

CWMoR said:
"If Eclipse does announce a new plane with the first one so totally F'd up and so far from delivery, even the EAA'ers will chase Vern off."

CW-
I hope you know how much I respect your input here. But I'll go head to head with you on this prediction. I see no reason why The Truly Faithful would stop chewing drywall after a new screwing at Oshkosh. In their world, "It's all good".

After all, that's the beauty of the scam....errrr, company.
Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

No worries Gunner, I'll have a good laugh either way, that's the beauty of not being directly effected unless one of the wee-Jets drops on my kids school or my house.

I know the faithful-following will be OK with it (shows Eclipse is really on top of things, they are now mature, and they are thinking of the future, competition is running scared, blah blah blah), but the EAA guys do eventually get rid of most of the snake oil charmers like Happy Miles and too many others out to make a buck at the expense of we aviators.

The EAA guys have seen what happens when ego outstrips talent and when hype outstrips reality, planes crash and people die.

I need more than my fingers to count the guys I know how have passed on while pursuing this dream we call flight - and too many of them were lost to the risks pilots may not understand which someone who calls themself a designer or OEnM damn well ought to comprehend.

Bede gets a pass from me because he actually does design great little planes, and he has delivered more planes that do what he said they would do, then Vern and crew have managed to date with a billion dollars, 9 years and 1200 employees.

As I have said before, I have dealt with both Bede and Vern, and I would put my money (and my body) in a Bede project before EVER getting involved in the Cult of Personality that is Eclipse Aviation and the faithful following.

My opinion of course, your mileage may vary.

fred said...

yes ...

definitely sounds like "Tomomrrow we will shave free of charge ...."

change "shave" for new revelation on a booming fiasco , you'll have it !

it starts to be really funny ... instead of trying to put existing (and already working) parts together , it was easier to design brand new ones ... = delays ...

then why building the same way ?? let's try the fryedeggsfriction = new delays ...

some "dinosaurs" made an engine right for the plane too early , let's pretend we need new stuff = new delays ...

some electronics champs made something too fast , let's fire them and take instead of a readilly working one (garmin) a bunch of producers not used to work together , making sure they are going to play the "hot potatoes game" (eg: my part of the project works fine , if yours isn't , it's because you didn't ask me what standarts my things were using , therefore its your fault...) = new delays

at the end (or closing to the point
where customers may ask you about real datas on a real when and a real how ...)

you just come up with a new project , starting the noria once again ...
(uuuh ! if the first project isn't finished yet , why are you starting a new one ?? for luring peoples into new delays ?? because you understood the first is not going to be financely positive ? )


the list could be endless ( it is my opinion on what it looks like from far ...)

definitely from far , it looks more and more funny (yes i am NOT a deposit holder , so it remain funny for me .... as for others ???)

bill e. goat said...

A few (hundred) posts ago, someone suggested a "lively" debate at Osh Kosh, with critics in one corner and advocates in the other.

I suggest we put Vern in a corner, and sell long pointy sticks.

I take the following good natured "jab" at aviation's most, ah, er, "illustrious" CEO, in the spirit of, well, sort of the same spirit I stick pins in my Vern doll.

(I think those would sell well at Osh Kosh too, along with a wide varity of pins :).
-----------------------

Much silly and unsavory to do of late, questioning whether Ken is on the Eclipse payroll or not.

Silly Gooses- the illusion is complete! What most folks haven't caught on to: Vern is on Cessna's payroll!!

It's obvious Cessna picked exactly the right guy to run Eclipse. How better could Cessna sabotage the VLJ competition!! Grind to a stop with an engine vendor change, just after "first flight"?? Mysterious weight growth during the two year interlude?? Change avionics vendors, just after TC?? Trouble getting the pitot tube to work, or FIKI to work- both pretty old school problems- taking months, years to get ironed out??

All just a string of bad luck and poor judgement, you really believe?!? Ha- You Fools!!

Or consider the scenerio of investors getting rich and employees getting Eclipse stock options ?? Wrong- Cessna is having the Eclipse investors fund an outsource shop- that Cessna will be buying for pennies on the dollar when Eclipse implodes- and Vern's the one getting stock options- from Cessna!!

(You don't think all that traffic the Cessna/ex-Cessna/re-Cessna guys are generating between ABQ and ICT/Indy is coincidental, do ya?!!)

Eclipse advertising for employees from Wichita, especially from Cessna? Coincidence, you think??

I bet Cessna even arranged the advertising for the upcoming Eclipse trip to ICT!!
------------------------

To those who find the Eclipse financial situation bizarre and inexplicable, Guess Again! Who do you think is slipping them money under the table, just enough to keep them afloat, but not enough to finish the E-500, and not enough to "fully ramp up production"? Cessna. Let Eclipse fold now?? Why?, as long as deposits can still be raked in!!

(And of course, the new model is going to be "fully funded". ...Right? ,)

-------------------------

I suspect Cessna even bought off the FAA to granting Eclipse a TC, so the Eclipse focus could be shifted to production, rather than finishing the development of the E-500!!!

(Remember all that talk about the FAA being pressured into granting TC and PC ?? Everyone was accusing Eclipse of jury rigging the process- all the while those shadowy Cessna types were pulling the strings!!).

Now, just when it seemed the E-500 might actually (and accidentally) be nearing completion in spite of the "disruptive" cart-before-the-horse planning, along comes the next knock-out punch from Cessna; Eclipse introduces a NEW MODEL to further derail the E-500 program!!

You just GOTTA hand it to those guys at Cessna!!!!

bill e. goat said...

Unconfirmed rumors of black unmarked Citations flying into ABQ at night- AFSOC elements at Kirtland AFB, right? Co-resident with Eclipse, right?

It's just the aircraft taxi into the Eclipse compound, unloading some mysterious figure, wearing a trenchcoat, hat, and sunglasses- at night.

(Wait a minute- sunglasses...hmmmm. The plot thickens...!!! :)

redtail said...

BusinessWeek Design Awards

"The one product that won the most awards-two gold ideas and one silver plus one Catalyst honorable mention-was the Eclipse 500 Very Light Jet by IDEO and Eclipse Aviation. The Eclipse jet won in IDEA's research, interaction design, and transportation categories."

I guess the business community sees some innovation and usefulness for this jet that the "critics" here just don't get. Luckily it's the real world that will determine the success or failure of this company and aircraft, and not the "geniuses" of this blog.

bill e. goat said...

Redtail,
You're just sore because they make you drive back and forth between ABQ and ICT.

Go to Osh Kosh, and talk to the guy wearing sunglasses at the Eclipse booth- maybe he can get you on board the nightly shuttle flights.

FlightCenter said...

Alexa said,

"Stay tuned….FAA will announce that terminating action for the pitot static airworthiness directive has been approved."

When will the FAA announce this?

What is the current plan and schedule for retrofitting the pitot static systems of the existing aircraft?

redtail said...

Here's the BusinessWeek writeup, the previous one was the press release....

The Best Product Design Of 2007

"The one product that won the most awards--two gold IDEAs and one silver plus one Catalyst honorable mention--was the Eclipse 500 Very Light Jet by IDEO and Eclipse Aviation. The Eclipse jet won in IDEA's research, interaction design, and transportation categories. Yamashita had this to say: "The impressive point in this case is how much economic value this program has created by using design in strategic ways."

WhyTech said...

Redtail said:

"I guess the business community sees some innovation and usefulness for this jet that the "critics" here just don't get."

Actually, if you look carefully, there is a pattern of products receiving such awards turning out to be conspicuous failures. In my industry, these awards are a joke, and are considered a kiss of death for a new product.

WT

redtail said...

"When will the FAA announce this?"

The AD bulletin has already gone out to those affected.

flightguy said...

The Eclipse jet won in IDEA's research, interaction design, and transportation categories. Yamashita had this to say: "The impressive point in this case is how much economic value this program has created by using design in strategic ways."


There is that reference to economic "value" again. Eclipse the ValueJet.

Who else competed for the award? Who else was nominated from aviation and avionics? That's right there was no mention. Unfortunately for you Redtail, you are debating with the "real world" on this blog FOR AVIATION.

Don't make me bring up the Collier Trophy again. What a travesty.

flightguy said...

Stan,

If eclipse does end up creating a SEJ that turns out to be a V-tail and does fly it to Osh Kosh. It almost makes you wonder what Eclipse was really doing at Cirrus for those production tours?

airsafetyman said...

Re: Business Week Design Award.

Several years ago, while attending MBA classes at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro a professor discussed several business magazines. He cautioned us never to take Business Week seriously. They routinely miss the size and direction of their market calls, and businesses and people profiled on the cover almost invariably crash and burn (so to speak).

redtail said...

I see all the real "geniuses" are already chiming in....

AlexA said...

Overheard at the recent lunch get together between BlackTulip (BT), WhyTech (WT) and Real Planes for Real Life (GR)
WT- “this pizza shop is suppose to provide a great meal for less than the one across the street.”
BT- “impossible, it cannot be done.”
GR- “Yeah, the owner promised that each slice would have 500 calories and it would be done in 90 seconds”
WT- “You guys have a great point. I understand that it’s taking 91 seconds and each slice only has 499 calories”
GR-“Come on guys let’s go across the street back even if it cost three times the amount. We’ll teach them a lesson.”
BT-“Large pizza, extra mushrooms.”

airtaximan said...

Stan...

The email from the former employee was AMAZING.

A "secret project", "even the board didn't know of", on a "secluded island"... WOW!

Sounds like the Professor and Gilligan got some support from Mr. Howell and went off to the other side of the island to build a new plane... while Lovey, Ginger, Mary-Anne and the Skipper were back in ABD trying to tend to the daily business of fixes, NGs, slowing production and non-deliveries. Oh yeah, hiring, too...

- Use your heads, and you can come to the right conclusion about what Vern needs to try next.
- The 500 is dead
- Dayjet is going per-jet, so the smallest plane really makes sense: see success at Satsair with the fleet of SR22 at $500/hour
- After all the ant farming, Russian mathematicians, million and million of dollars, and only a few hundred "members"... I guess Dayjet realized their business model made little sense with the 500 anyway - forget selling seats at $1-$4/mile - just do "charter" in a small cheap plane. I imagine the 500 revealed itself as the WRONG plane for air taxi, afterall.

... It’s all over - just the faithful chanting the "Battle Hymn of the Die-Hard"

Eclipse and Dayjet are fessing up:
- Charter (Per-jet...charter, whatever) instead of per-seat
- Single engine smaller cheaper plane instead of the "world's most perfect little air taxi plane".. makes sense. I guess the computer system developed at Dayjet can go out with the bath-plane... too?

- I guess the last line of the Battle Hymn of the Die-Hard" might be..."Our God is MOVING On..."

Look for massive BS at Oshkosh:

- We’ve always said were an aircraft company with a family of aircraft, not a one trick (unfinished, disastrous) pony
- The e-500 is a grand success, and we're no abandoning it, just adding to the stable
- Price
- Certification date
- Delivery date
- Price
- did I say price?
- Commonality
- "our infrastructure, and design expertise" and the limited amount of time it took to design and develop this "derivative" (implied, not true)
- Performance, especially payload/range

... It should be fun

For all the Die-Hards, TRY to read between the lines... the unspoken message: "we took your progress payments, and we tried to save the company by developing another plane - the first one you bought from us is DEAD.
We lied about every aspect of it for years...and now, we have to move on...

- I hope Vern says "thank you all for your continued support"... you have truly SAVED the company... again... maybe.

PS. you can also thank Vern for continuing to provide unbelievably intersting material for this blog. One prediction that kept coming up over the last year was the demise of this blog. Rest assured, your fearless leader, Mr. Raburn continues his shenannigans...and this blog gets stronger and more interesting... I guess the same line of reasoning you took to become Die-Hards has led to the wrong conclusion about this blog as well...

Special message for Ken: keep complaining about my spelling - and keep listening to the Vernsters BS... you seem to bemissing the point in every case, buddy.

fred said...

yes awards mean nothing ...

a few years ago , i had a good buddy ....

he was an architect and he couldn't find a job , mostly because he was from Zaire (now congo kinshasa)
ans as black as man can be ...(yes racism is total BS)

he had the idea of setting-up an architecture award thing , only what he had to do was to publish the contest in newspaper ..

he did trhu a single line in the last page of a local ...

off-course , no other got enroled , and so i won the gold medal of architectural achievments ....(wow..great , with only one participant , i wonder if he could have won the second rank ?? !!)

after a few weeks , he was crawling under job offers , by very posh peoples just so happy to employ a awarded guy ....!!!

WhyTech said...

alexa said:

"Overheard at the recent lunch get together between BlackTulip (BT), WhyTech (WT) and Real Planes for Real Life (GR)"

A typical misrepresentation by the faithful. Actually we had a rather nice high cal sushi lunch.

WT

WhyTech said...

Redtail said:

"I see all the real "geniuses" are already chiming in.... "

The "unfaithful" dont claim to be geniuses (even though some that I have met could justifiably make such a claim). What we might modestly claim is that, collectively, we have some painfully earned real world street savvy, which seems to be entirely missing among the faithful.

WT

airtaximan said...

since we all love awards so much..

Stan, perhaps you could come up with the EAC Blog Award:

1- most Die-hard
2- harshest Critic
3- best Prediction
4- greates Satire
5- longest Post
6- best Spelling and Punctuation

... naw... basing opinions on awards are for idiots who cannot decide for themselves...

...and there are some companies who are so publicity hungry they spend resources lobbying to win awards etc, instead of finishing their plane...err...I mean getting their jobs done...

AlexA said...

Misrepresentation is in the stomach of the presenter. You call it lunch I call it bait.

airtaximan said...

Whytech,

don;t be too hard on the faithful...

eventually, with enough time and money... E-clips might be a success...

They are, afterall, already on to "revolutionary and game-changing" airplane design number two...

Maybe this one will be a success?

Stay tuned.

WhyTech said...

ATN said:

"don;t be too hard on the faithful..."

I am not intentionally being hard on them - just trying to save them from themselves. You know, sort of the "tough love" idea.

WT

AlexA said...

Stan you continue to stoop to new lows….. your latest bashing make it appear that Eclipse slapped on the heavier engines and did nothing with the airframe. If you would have done your homework you would have learned that the airframe went through major structural changes to support the new MTOW. Everything from the flaps, tires, pylons, etc had to be redesigned. Oh by the way those poor depositors got an increase in speed of almost 15 knots, improved climb rates, takeoff distance, etc.

mirage00 said...

eventually, with enough time and money... E-clips might be a success...

Wait wait wait.... Did I just read that correctly????

Special thanks Alexa, Redtail and Hummer for keeping it real.

I remain AMUSED!!!!

double 00

Ken Meyer said...

whytech wrote,

"The "unfaithful" dont claim to be geniuses (even though some that I have met could justifiably make such a claim). What we might modestly claim is that, collectively, we have some painfully earned real world street savvy, which seems to be entirely missing among the faithful."

Well that sure makes sense. There are about 800 individual owners who have each analyzed the Eclipse and decided to put down their hard-earned dollars on it. Smart guys, most of whom run their own business, and all of whom have been smart enough to make the money it takes to buy a plane which costs more than $1 million.

But you think they're all stupid, naive morons who lack real world savvy.

Looks to me like you're giving us more "old bull" stores :)

Ken

mirage00 said...

Stan you continue to stoop to new lows

Not really possibly.

I remain amused.

double 00

WhyTech said...

Ken said:

"Looks to me like you're giving us more "old bull" stores :)"

Right on, Ken, and it looks like you are still resistant the opinions/advice of others when they dont fit with your view of the world.

I have been involved with about 200 startup businesses over 40 years, as a founder, director, and board member. Anyone who has looked at the starup world closely knows that very few of these business survive and succeed, even those with A-list founders, executives, and investors. When one examines the history of aircraft manfacturing startups, the record is even worse than average.

So, when "800 smart guys" put down large unsecured deposits years in advance for a "revolutionary" acft to be designed and manufactured by a company whose founder and CEO has zero prior experience manufacturing anything, let alone aircraft, it brings into question the judgement and savvy of those "800 smart guys," unless they are merely speculating in delivery positions, and even then the risk is quite high - get the timing wrong and your money is gonzo. The risk these "800 smart guys" took on is needless risk - they had the option of waiting awhile to see how things evolved, but they didnt wait. Smart? Very little to be gained, lots to lose. I cant help but wonder as to the quality of the due diligence performed by these "800 smart guys," if they did any at all.

WT

Gunner said...

Back to the SEJ concept.

I do believe this is a very good possibility. Eclipse is more a sales company than an aircraft company. (Even Vern boasts that they manufacture nothing.) But their sales expertise is on the "fast nickels" vs "slow dollars" side of aviation. So a smaller plane certainly fits their marketing culture (not to mention the part commonality synergies).

What I don't understand is why? If we use Ken's numbers that the EA-50X is 40% cheaper to run than the Mustang, this revolutionary twin is already "promising" Diamond/Cirrus efficiencies at higher "promised" altitudes and speeds. And, at $1.6MM, it sits right atop Diamonds SEJ price point.

So why a single when The Faithful are already "promised" SEJ costs at TwinJet performance? Perhaps the Eclipse Skunkworks has done it again...developed revolutionary manufacture and design processes that'll "promise" their SEJ compete with the cost of the MOST efficient paper airplane....Moller. 20mpg, doncha know.

Gonna be an interesting week.
Gunner

mirage00 said...

I have been involved with about 200 startup businesses over 40 years, as a founder, director, and board member.

Here we go again....

I remain amused

double 00

hummer said...

Bravo Vern
What a stroke of genius.
A single engine 4 seat jet.
One the test pilots are rumored to love.
Rather than hurting the eclipse program, this may help to save it.
If it is priced at entry level, it will bring in a ton of orders.
It may insure appreciation for both aircraft.
It certainly will help the training program.
It will solidify the Jet Complete Service Centers.
Finally, it will bring in a lot of new capital and investment which appears to be sorely needed.
Seems like everybody wins:
faithful, unfaithful (those cold and timid souls = TC&TS) and those of us that fit neither category. . . like on the sidelines ready to jump in!

airtaximan said...

WT,

Entire communities have been "taken" by aviation schemes before... see Visionaire.

800 depositors, speculators, taggers-along... are not revolutionary in this business.

The airplane thing gets'em.

No one who has invested in e-clips will get hurt by them - they are all rich guys. They can afford it.

It just makes no sense to many of us, watching such rediculous claims and blow-hard posturing, whicle things arein shambles.

But, the littler-jet (the top secret one) will solve many problems. Unless of course, they over promise and under-deliver.

That's the e-clips culture. And...that's a shame.

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

It makes a good story. Like the 500 did for 10 years. Many folks bought the BS on the 500.

Do you think e-clips can compete in a market where all of its advantages are, well...gone?

- conventional engine
- conventional materials
- nothing new in the design
- avionics, are well...nothing new
- FSW...that's funny

How will they compete?

- perhaps they will "forward-price" the 4-place, too? I suspect they will. 120,000 projected sales over 15 years...hmmm.. Perhaps we could sell it for $600,000?
- how did that work, last time?

I personally don't see any real advantages over there. The 500 was/is a big failure. They do not know what they are doing. They can hype anything, but eventually, smart folks catch on.

What is their advantge for the 4-place?

If it even smells like it could work, Cessna can just launch a 4-place jet, and probably get the market. They could even charge 30% more ($200,000) and guess what?

No intelligent responsible buyer would even consider the littler-jet from e-clips.

WhyTech said...

Ken said:

"But you think they're all stupid, naive morons who lack real world savvy."

Not quite right, Ken. I have never suggested that they are morons - that is your word. Naive, and lacking real world savvy in the startup and acft manufacturing world, yes. Just as I am naive when it comes to doing heart transplants - what can be so hard about that - just a bit of plumbing work, right?

WT

hummer said...

Gotta Love It!
Market: Huge & Global
Compete: With whom
Cessna: It will take them three to five years to make a decision and really, do you think they have the balls?
And finally. . . "No intellegent responsible. . . . . buyer. . ."
You just don't get it.
Buying is always an emotional response later justified by a summation of fact.
We buy nothing logical.
As per need, we do not buy what we need. We have not been a needy nation since the depression.
Sales are made to "wants".
Smart sales are targeted to ego at this moment.
ATM (TC&TS) get with the 21st Century.

fred said...

yeqterday i said about EASA not in a hurry to "get the paper done" for E500 , thru speed issue in commercials levels ....

i just had a call from a friend (working just in the right spot...)

there is an other issue ....

it is the friedeggswelding ...

"rumors" say no paper until the process is prooved to be exempt of the corrosion problemas ...
(EA may have to make proof nothing wrong can happen ... the bad thing is EASA has absolutely no intention on helping EA make proof one way or an other ....)

WhyTech said...

Hummer said:

"Smart sales are targeted to ego at this moment."

Translation: "Take the money and run!"

WT

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

funny man! Buy with ego, a 21st century concept.

So, a Cessna 4 place jet does not appeal to ego as much as, say an e-clips?

Cessna would decide to produce a 4-place jet, at the right price, at the right volume, when it makes sense.

It's clear Vern figured out his initial thinking on the 500 was wrong -no way to make enough to make money at $779k or $1.5. At $2 million, people's egos make them LOOK to a real aircraft company.

Now, if Cessna starts 1 year after Vern, or even 2 years after Vern, I suspect they will finish BEFORE HIM AGAIN. And, they can charge 30% MORE for the same plane, and take the market.

Hummer, try using your "other" head.

mirage00 said...

Not quite right, Ken. I have never suggested that they are morons - that is your word. Naive, and lacking real world savvy in the startup and acft manufacturing world, yes. Just as I am naive when it comes to doing heart transplants - what can be so hard about that - just a bit of plumbing work, right?

All the "experts" said the world wouldnt pay for overnight delivery when 2nd day already existed... go figure.

I remain amused

double 00

WhyTech said...

Moo said:

"All the "experts" said the world wouldnt pay for overnight delivery when 2nd day already existed... go figure."

You are missing the point. No one here has said that revolutionary business ideas and breakthrough technologies dont/cant happen. I have made a more than adequate living believing that this is, indeed, possible. However, such things are quite rare, and the odds of any given startup achieving such results are extremely small. E-clips has not demonstrated the elements of the success pattern common to great companies so far, and in fact, the available information suggests that E-clips is on a failure path. When E-clips enjoys a tiny meaasure of the success that FedEx has achieved, I will happily acknowledge that here.

WT

FlightCenter said...

On the subject of Business Week...

"Headlines from featured stories in Business Week, Fortune, and Forbes were collected for a 20-year period to determine whether positive stories are associated with superior future performance and negative stories are associated with inferior future performance for the featured company. “Superior” and “inferior” were determined in comparison with an index or another company in the same industry and of the same size.

Statistical testing implied that positive stories generally indicate the end of superior performance and negative news generally indicates the end of poor performance."

Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators?

Gunner said...

M00-
I think you make more sense when you post inane quotes than when you attempt substance.

All the "experts" said the dotcom boom was the New Economy. Huge fortunes could be made in speculation. Lots of people lost their lungs.

Guess Vern never got the word.
Gunner

fred said...

gunner ..

i agree with you ...!

the starting point of the "new economy" was some peoples were lured into believing simple non-sense :

infos make money = more infos make more money , so informative technologies (as internet) WAS money ...!! ;-))

they only forgot to explain if infos can be good in the money making process , by itself it means just nothing ...!!

this is where anyone can understand economy is not a science (as maths or biology ) but more like a kind of human ideology , so perfectly imperfect ....!!!

flyger said...

Ken Meyer said...

But you think they're all stupid, naive morons who lack real world savvy.


That's blaming the victims. Most Enron investors were not stupid, either. If owners had knowledge of where we would be today, how many would have bought? Quite a few less. Realize that those getting airplanes now signed the contract a long time ago. How come there are essentially zero new sales these days? Because the risk/reward/cost formula has changed for the worse.

fred said...

flyeger ...

#Because the risk/reward/cost formula has changed for the worse.#

yes , exactly ...

when EA , few years ago , sold a dream =it was tempting ...!

now most whom boarded the train to make $$$ probably already understood they'll be very lucky if not suffering losses ...!!

for thoses ones , sorry , absolutely NO compassion ...they took the risk , got the s***t = good for them , hope they will get the lesson ...

as for the one whom saved thru a very long time and hardwork = only one advice = get the rope ready !!!

Eric said...

Okay, so when will Stan and/or others be posting pictures of the Eclipse tent from Oshkosh? I'm really wondering if this single-engine airplane rumor is legit.

Also, this constant predicting of the demise of Eclipse or the Blog is getting annoying. The reason why both still exist is because nothing definitive has happened. DayJet hasn't started, the E500 is still in post-production development, and Vern still supplies a steady stream fodder for the Blog.

Until the Eclipse gets the 500 delivered in a consistently usable manner to its customers we'll have no idea what will happen. The Critics and Die-Hards alike point to such mundane indicators of company performance and then claim victory and vindication. Come on guys, we're all professionals here (I think), some of this behavior is not flattering.

I remain bemused.

~Eric

Bonanza Pilot said...

I will be at OSH on monday...so look forward to seeing what is happening. I still say no way to the single engine jet...it just doesn't make any sense at all (of course this is Eclipse!) If the E500 costs 1.5 million give or take...what can a single cost? Cirrus and Diamond have both tried to do a single engine jet for under 1 million and both are over that figure already. So if they do a single engine jet for 1.2 million or even 1.1 million who will really care? Eclipse has always been about being revolutionary - they might not have succeeded, but that was the goal. They want a revolutionary new product...a single engine Eclipse is just too close to what Cirrus, Diamond, Epic and a host of others have all tried. No revolutionary operation costs...no revolutionary engine...so why bother?

Bonanza Pilot said...

forgot to add...if they announce a single for a crazy low price...say 700K for the first 100 planes on a platinum program...how many of you would be willing to give them 70K or 100K in a non-escrowed account?

WhyTech said...

BP said:

"No revolutionary operation costs...no revolutionary engine...so why bother? "

If, through superb execution skills, E-clips could be first to market with a quality product and sufficient production capacity to meet demand, it might be worth the bother. However, execution does not seem to be an E-clips distinctive competence.

WT

airsafetyman said...

Re: Post-Production Development

How can you be in "Post-Production Development" when you don't have a Production Certificate? And only got the Type Certificate through political intimidation? I think the FAA has finally figured out that when these things start making round, deep holes in folks' backyards they are on the hook.

Eric said...

The post-production development comment was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek. It was my understanding that Eclipse received the production certificate in the Spring.

airsafetyman said...

Re: Production Certificate

Go to the FAA web site and look up the Type Certificate and Data Sheets, and then go to Eclipse Aviation where the EA500 Type Certificate is listed. Then go to page 4 where it lists NONE after Production Basis (where other aircraft have the Production Certificate number). It says that each EA500 airplane must be signed off after a detailed inspection by the FAA.

bills said...

airsafetyman, ea500 does have a production certificate, see here

EclipseOwner387 said...

All,

My airplane N963JG will be on display at Oshkosh. It has had the SB work completed with the new pitot static system and has been returned to service without the Day VFR limitation. Please feel free to take a peek and let me know what you think. She is a very pretty aircraft. Eclipse has been easy to work with and the training dates are set for early September.

Shane Price said...

I smell trouble.

Let us suppose that an 'E249.25' makes a 'surprise' visit to Oskhosh.

Vern says he can make it work at $700k (ish) a copy....

BUT only for the first 100 lucky investors, sorry, buyers, who get it at this 'special offer' number.

Say he asks for $70K in some non refundable form. That is only $7 million.

Does not compute.

So far, Eclipse has burned north of a BILLION dollars, and still has not produced a useable aircraft.

A mere seven million dollars will hardly pay for the color (colour) copies to get the project going.

?

With my express permission, change the cost upwards (or downwards) and vary the 'deposit' as you see fit.

Still won't work.

Not for Eclipse, and as usual, not for the poor mugs who put up their hard earned money.

Shane

AlexA said...

EO387 Please tell me you are kidding,”...pitot static system and has been returned to service without the Day VFR limitation.” What will I do with the demise of this Blog? MOO will no longer have any amusement;)

airsafetyman said...

Production Certificate

Three choices:

1. The aircraft does not have a PC
2. The A/C does have a PC and no one at Eclipse or the FAA cared enough to update the TCDS (hard to believe, but possible)
3. The aircraft had a PC and it was revoked or suspended

If it exists someone needs to bring it to the Feds attention that the TCDS is out of date

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Alexa,

Your desire to misrepresent the situation and the desires of many here is almost funny, in a desparately seeking validation kind of way.

We critics, many of whom actually own, operate, and maintain real live aircraft (with wings, engines, GPS and everything) would not be the least bit surprised that completion of a Mandatory Service Bulletin would lift the Airworthiness Directive (a first for the VLJ industry, Eclipse only FIRST so far), as that has always been the primary method to lift an AD limitation.

The other method is to ensure that all potentially effected aircraft can be PROVEN to the FAA's satisfaction to have been modified, then the AD itself goes away.

Makes you wonder why Eclipse can't demonstrate to the FAA's satisfaction that all 'delivered' aircraft, most of which are still in Eclipse's direct care, have been modified as needed - unless the failure mode is so insidious\hazardous that the FAA wanted to be sure NO wee-Jets were flying in the NATS and placing OTHER pilots and pax at risk.

When do your mom and dad get home, shouldn't you be doing homework? You ought to leave this aviation thing to the adults.

hummer said...

EO387
Great News.
That means that 135 certification is just around the corner.
Are you at liberty to disclose operating weights and cg info?
And are you leasing the aircraft on a month to month basis?
Finally any idea what your insurance may be?
Many Thanks

hummer said...

Bonanza Pilot
The SE Eclipse I guess should be at about $1 mil.
The Cessna 206 is $700,000 and rising.
Makes all the sense in the world to me.
Would I place a deposit in escrow. .
not on your life.
This Eclipse now with pitot, speed mods and the new avionics cut in. . .
is looking more attractive.
So anyone knowing of a fire sale,
please let me know.

cj3driver said...

"...anyone knowing of a fire sale,
please let me know..."

Hummer,

Mike Press has one advertised for $200,000 LESS than factory price.

cj3driver said...

Hummer,

I dont know how to make a link, But here is the cut/paste

http://www.controller.com/listings/detail.aspx?OHID=1113263&guid=CDF77CF7C7554BB086CE6CFB236CB38C

hummer said...

CJ3
Thanks
Can you give me the position number or Mike's identifying number as posted on his site?

AlexA said...

CWMoR Ouch, I must have hit a sore spot. CWMoR said “we critics” (translates to dinosaur that missed the boat and has axe to grind). It’s about time for you to say “….that you really wish Eclipse would survive and prosper.” Really! Even Maxwell Smart had agent 99 what’s your excuse?

EclipseOwner387 said...

ColdFish,

Not all aircraft have been modified yet thus the AD not lifted but modified airplanes are go to go. It will just take time to schedule and service the entire fleet of aircraft. Once complete the AD will be lifted. By my estimate, less than 1/3 of the fleet is on lease back to Eclipse so they are not all "tethered" to Eclipse and it will require some logistics to complete the process.

bills said...

FYI, as of July 13, aircraft registry shows:

40 EA500's registered to Eclipse under their Dealer Cert (aircraft certificate not yet issued)

19 registered to real owners (including 5 to DayJet), certificate issued

EclipseOwner387 said...

Hummer,

I think if you called Eclipse they could give you Weight and Balance info. I am on a lease back that can be terminated with 10 day notice from either party. I believe I recall having heard insurance was running like $25K - $35K but Ken would probably be better source than I for that info. I have not looked into it.

cj3driver said...

Alexa said,

“…CWMoR Ouch, I must have hit a sore spot. CWMoR said “we critics” (translates to dinosaur that missed the boat and has axe to grind)…”

Alexa,

Based on the current E500 listings available on the resale market, no one has “missed the boat” yet. The listings on “controller” show a depositor has invested 150K on a “sterling position”. He is asking a $120,000 premium. Take away the brokerage fee of $20K and he will net $100K on the sale.

Since he is undoubtedly one of the original depositors (base price is $1,045K) he made his deposit back in 2000, this nets a present rate of return of about 7%. … and, that’s if he gets his asking price.

In other words, you can pick up a E500 position now, for about the same price (in 2000 dollars), if you took the same money and invested in a bond other vehicle at a 7% return (rather than Eclipse), and be in the same place today with very little risk.

… “Missed the boat”? …Nope, the ship hasn’t even set sail yet.

AlexA said...

CJ3Driver with all due respect I think you also missed the boat. I was not talking about the “purchase boat” but now that you brought it up let us take a look.

Your posting brings up the major travesty of this log (lack of information passed on as facts).

You see I was an original “sterling depositor.” If my memory serves me correct (and it might not) the original deposit amount was $37,500 under the sterling program, upon first flight that amount increased by another $37,500 and then upon certification the total brought up to $155,000. Maybe Ken who is the official Blog librarian can double check my facts. So in your example a person can walk out with $100k with an total investment of $155k for six month, not bad. That’s probably enough to buy a boat;)

Gunner said...

Diamond has just sent out its first installment of the "D-Jet Flyer", an update on the project. It can be downloaded Here

What impresses me most about this company is they don't hype their project beyond imagination. They don't claim to be producing a "revolutionary jet" because, like Eclipse, they're not. They don't claim this is gonna be the plane to transition to from a Cirrus single, because it's not. They simply offer an honest, sober progress report. If anything, they show a serious humility toward what they do. Some relevant quotes:

"We intend to have the D-JET
follow in the footsteps of legendary and successful designs such as the Bonanza and Baron, the Skyhawk and Skylane, the JetRanger, and the original Citation. In their day, all of these aircraft offered a perfect balance of performance, real world practicality and, in their respective market segments, honest value.
They were rarely the very fastest, or the least expensive, but they were all very successful, by any measure."


"To date, S/N 001 has been flown by seven different PIC’s, with the common feedback being that the production D-JET will be
a very suitable and nice flying airplane for the typical private pilot with high performance complex experience."


"To support the design of the D-JET, prepare for the certification program, and get the initial steps in place towards actual production, we have been engaged in a massive hiring effort. Currently over 140 people, dedicated to the D-JET Program exclusively, have been added to our workforce in London Ontario."
(Count 'em....140 selected additions to the team, not 1,200 6-week wonders.)

"Full-scale static test articles will also be built for use in structural testing."
(Novel approach)

"All these efforts have paid off with over 300 total orders to date.
The North American retail delivery schedule is completely sold out for the first 1½ years of production, with only a very limited number of Premium deposit slots available for late 2009 delivery from select Diamond Distributors."

(Cautious, modest production expectations or simple dinosaur mentality?)

Gunner

cj3driver said...

Alexa said;

“…So in your example a person can walk out with $100k with an total investment of $155k for six month, not bad…”

I don’t follow you. I’m not sure what’s in the “Sterling Position” terms and agreements. The seller states 150K deposit with Eclipse. If it’s true that the total hasn’t been “at risk” the entire time, the contract and liability for all future deposits have. I guess you could work backwards and credit some interest for the deposits made at a later date “first flight, ect”, but we are talking minutia.

My point was the ROI for money at risk.

I think I might have saved some documents from back in ‘02 or 03 when I was thinking of purchasing. I know at that time, the deposit was 10% of the purchase price. This was definitely after the first flight and the Williams/Pratt engine change. I believe the price was $1,175,000 at the time. Don’t quote me.I can tell you for sure “Sterling Positions” were not offered at that time.

I can also tell you for sure, if you invested in an Eclipse deposit in ‘02-03, you would be way better off with the 10% deposit placed in a normal savings account today. There may be some exceptions to this based on “deals” Eclipse may have made, but the point still stands.

The boat IS still at the dock. And, although some of the passengers may not be aware, …. a leak is developing.

AlexA said...

CJ3Driver you don’t follow me because the claims you made in your previous post were WRONG. I just reviewed my old Sterling Level Deposit Agreement. It says $37,500 when the agreement is executed, $37,500within four business days of the first flight, bring up deposit to 60% six months prior to delivery (PERIOD). By the way the first $37,500 was put in escrow.

In your example the seller is asking for a $120,000 premium. This means that the individual invested $75,000 and is getting back $195,000 (investment plus profit) in approximately 5 years. In my book $75,000 at 10% for 5 years is a bunch of money less.

You certainly missed this boat.

AlexA said...

Gunner said “What impresses me most about this company is they don't hype their project beyond imagination.” Glad they changed their ways. Look up the original performance specifications when the DA42 Twinstar was announced and actual performance.

If you take a look how far off the mark Diamond was with their DA42 and it’s an indication of the future, your D-Jet should cruise slower than a 152 in a dive. Good luck.

airtaximan said...

EO,

are you keeping this plane, or are they letting you put the "for sale" sign in the window?

Seriously, I'm glad your plane is beautiful.

I think you are the one who has been a pleasure to deal with, though, not them.

-training date in September
-aero mods IOU
-avionics that work IOU

- care to provide anything else they OWE you on check out (squawks)?

You are a very patient and understanding customer.

"for sale" or not?

Gunner said...

Alexa-
That's funny. Really.

Funny because you're the one that is so appalled at all the "bashing" of Eclipse, while being so unbelievably negative toward every other design out there.

Funny how the the Critics are supportive of so many designs and critical of Eclipse, while The Faithful are critical of so many designs, while supportive only of Eclipse.

Then we get quotes from y'all about being closed minded. Kind of indicates where the REAL vested interests vs critical thinking can be found.

It honestly IS funny to watch, sometimes.
Gunner

Lloyd said...

I had the opportunity to review an insurance quote for the eclipse. ~2500 hour pilot, 500 turbine, no jet time. 10 Mil smooth limits 10K deductible on hull for 24K per year. Sounded like a reasonable quote to me.

cj3driver said...

Alex said

"...In my book $75,000 at 10% for 5 years is a bunch of money less..."

Alexa,

Again you miss the point. This seller states there is $150K on deposit with Eclipse. This is the liability to protect this position up to today and to keep the contract valid in the future. Maybe he is the second buyer, … maybe his terms were different than yours. The fact is, he states $150K is on deposit with Eclipse. That represents the total liability (potential loss) on this investment at this point in time. This liability began the date the deposit became non-refundable.

You obviously look at investments different than I do.

Now, if you say the deposit is still fully refundable today and was never at risk, that is a different story.

I’m assuming the seller's ad is correct.
Don’t forget …it’s still not sold yet. That just the asking price.

The point is, no one has missed the boat on price yet.

There may be some original depositors that make a higher IRR than others, but I wager the average is less than 10% total between all depositors. Even 25% IRR is low for this type of risk.

The fact remains that TODAY you can purchase an E500, at a price LESS than the price was 3-4 years ago, and certainly LESS than one from the factory now. $200,000 less. This holds true for anyone who made a deposit since the price was set at 1,295,000 in '00 dollars. That means that there are potentially hundreds of depositors that are “in the hole” right now. Not just the risk that they won’t get their airplane. I'm saying, if you made a deposit in the last several years, your deposit is currently worth $0.00, nada, nothing.

Maybe your ship left the dock early, and I hope whoever bought the position good luck. But, for the rest still waiting (like Hummer), there are plenty of seats left. … at a discount. Different boat, same destination, lower price.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AlexA said...

Gunner,

As Ronnie once said there you go again. We need prisons but not by my house. Gunner said “negative toward every other design out there.” Not TRUE once again. The Mustang is fantastic, the entire CJ is good, I love the Gulfstreams and so on. You hold up Diamond in such high esteem but and are quick to criticize Eclipse. Look at their history and track record. By the way look at the track records of Cirrus (Project-x), Adam Aircraft, Lancair, Sinoswearinger and many more. Not an excuse for Eclipse. But it certainly appears most of the industry is filled with optimist.

FYI I have set a reminder on Outlook to look out for the DJET Critic Blog which you will create once Diamond misses their delivery date and/or performance numbers.

The Real Frank Castle said...

OK, guys, I need to come clean with you all.

As you know, or have figured out, my name is not really Frank Castle. And, I'm not going to tell you what my name is for fear of retribution. What I'm about to tell you will set the world of Aviation on fire.

As you may know, SkunkWorks is part of Lockheed-Martin. Actually, it's much bigger than that, and getting bigger by the day, hence the sudden surge in Textron stock.

Cessna/Textron is part of a multi-company consortium working with the Feds on major projects. Lockheed just doesn't want to share the limelight, and as controlling partner, can do so at will. Especially since there are more than one "area 51's", with secret bases right under our noses.

Cessna infiltrated Eclipse several years ago, moving key employees into strategic locations throughout the company, from the Board Room to the Paint Booth. I knew several of these "friends", and some really had no clue what was happening, especially when they were given the handshake and a wink on the way out, "See ya on the flip side".

I still cannot find all the names, and the various aircraft that have had N-numbers covered over with a bogus US registration. The stickers barely cover over the real numbers, but are usually whisked away to "Paint". At night, even moreso here at Indy, the Blackbirds fly in white-shirted personnel, quickly moving from the flightline to the Upper Rooms, most after the shift change from 2nd. (The Blackbirds only fly at nite, and run minimal nav lites.) Biggest damn Citations I ever seen, and running afterburners on takeoff, which usually lasts about 3-4 seconds.

A buddy of mine that works Experimental ICT told me about the time a Blackbird pulled in too early, causing all the hangar doors to close suddenly, nearly catching several personnel under them. Then, as he describes them, the "teal-shirted Nazis", driving fast black EZGo's, swarmed the parking lot to "interrogate" a few people, taking them off, some not very willing. they were never seen again, and rumor was an explosion in a turbine test stand, somewhere out past the east gate of McConnell AFB.

OK, enough history. Basically, Cessna practically "owns" Eclipse. Reason being the new aircraft due to be shown to the public at EAA Oshkosh. Yes, Vern helped hide it, and since the Papz just can't keep their telephotos away from all the Skunkworks locations, the decision was made to go offshore. Actually a little island out in the Bermuda Triangle, that was revealed in interrogations with personnel at Groom Lake. Satellite flights were diverted away from it, offering ,instead, to let Groom Lake be photograghed, after notification of shutdown.

The "new" Eclipse, thanks to technology advances made apparent from more interrogations, will allow the new craft to "transform" into a recognizable object (don't know that much-can't reveal) and be ready to accomodate several modes of transportation, such as air, land, and sea. STOL and VTOL characteristics are a small part of its diverse portfolio.

Just a little warning to Wm. Emeritus Goat. Before you post anything else,and you are tracked down through your IP address and tortured, you will know that you were 99.95% correct in your post.

Now you need to go hide, before the Blackbird swoops down on you !

The Real Frank Castle said...

Oh, yea, another Cessna/Textron/Skunkworks invention.

Jewelry made from moose turds.

Yup, they invented it. Along with the Slinky. And the first Internet (no, that wasn't Al Gore)

Gunner said...

Alexa said:
"The Mustang is fantastic".

Now that's even funnier. Mainly because it indicates that you consider the Mustang provides real value for the price of admission and the ongoing price of flying it. That is how we judge aircraft, no? Based on their VALUE to us, I mean.

How can the Mustang be "fantastic", if the EA-50X serves the same mission at 60% of entry price and 60% of ongoing costs? I don't think the Mustang is "fantastic" or "revolutionary" and I wouldn't use any other Vernisms about it. It's simply a great conventional jet, properly designed, manufactured and priced. It's performance is what it is, and it's honestly and publicly available.

But if you think it's "fantastic" then you must not believe the Eclipse is even in the same class, costing "40% less" and all. I mean, who would call a $90K Mercedes "fantastic", if BMW were able to provide the same luxury, comfort, safety and reliability for $55K?

It appears that you're portraying the Eclipse as a Poor Man's Mustang. If so, I'd consider you being generous to the EA-50X, but I'd have to defer that you're finally describing Le Petit in the right direction.

I've not once described the D-Jet in glowing terms. I've talked about it as another conventional SE paper jet with conventional mission profile and demand. Sure, I bought 3 of 'em. But I've hardly been Eclipse Faithful Evangelistic about the decision; I'm simply having some fun...same as EO who states he also has a position.

Big difference between you and I, Alexa. You're drawn to the Vern approach of compare, attack and point fingers. I'm drawn to the Dries approach of keep your head down, build the plane right, deliver it and take responsibility for the results.

Simply different approaches. Who knows, you and Vern may certainly be on the right track. But I just keep stumbling when I look for the "revolutionary" features of the EA-50X; especially the ones that are certified and flying. Seems to me that Raburn could learn a valuable lesson from Dries.

Also seems to me that you must be in a bit of personal conflict if you can gush about the EA-50X while calling the Mustang "fantastic". Ken regularly tries that, but can't help but damn the Mustang with faint praise.
Gunner

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Frank Castle (the ?real? one) says:
The stickers barely cover over the real numbers, but are usually whisked away to "Paint".

Apr. 20 2005--ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. -- Eclipse Aviation and city officials broke ground Tuesday for a 95,000-square-foot hangar that will eventually house the jet maker's paint shop.

Hmmm, everyone was "bashing" Eclipse for building such an oversize paint hangar- years too soon, 10x too large for an E-500. But, little did anyone realize, just right for, what else, the upcoming Cessna "Large Cabin Concept" aircraft, and a few other "special" projects. (I always thought the Citation-X was really just a cover story for the secret Air Force X-Citation).

And does anyone think it's just a coincidence that Eclipse was actually MOVED to Albuquerque- adjacent to the undergound complexes in the Sandia mountains???

It's all coming together now...

Well, better go for now- there's some disturbance outside th

Gunner said...

Many thanks to a fellow Blogger for pointing out that my link to the D-Jet update was broken.
Try this one:
http://tinyurl.com/2g244u
or Click Here

Gunner

Shane Price said...

'Mr. Castle' and 'Mr. Goat'

Your double act is almost as much fun as watching the Faithful do the lab rat dance trying to figure out a new postion, just in case Vern pulls the mis-direction trick at Oshkosh.

I (for one) really do...

.... 'remain amused'

And Goat, don't answer that door!

Shane

WhyTech said...

9Z said:

"Money and intelligence don't always go hand in hand. If they did, there wouldn't be a market for jewelry made from moose turds."

Words to live by!

WT

airsafetyman said...

10,000 EA-500s to USAF

At Oshkosk Vern will announce that since the EA-500 is cheaper than the cruise missles the service is now buying, they will switch to the Eclipse as a nuclear-tipped cruise missle. There is a small problem with the avionics, however, so the initial batch of 500 will have to be flown one-way by live pilots using a Shell road map and compass. The USAF is having a little problem getting the pilots lined up to fly the aircraft and are looking at old WWII films of Kamakazi pilots drinking their saki before taking off. They think a beach party with topless Asian maidens and a few cases of Bud may do the same trick for our guys.

AlexA said...

Gunner,

Face it, the only reason you are an Eclipse basher is because you are obviously use to getting your way and screaming when you don’t. When you hollered and screamed Eclipse was probably delighted to refund your money. I’m sure that Customer Care department probably celebrated that day.

Yes, I think the Mustang is fantastic and so is the Eclipse for its price point.

What doesn’t make sense to me if someone buying a single engine paper jet for about the same price as a twin? The rumors of compressor stalls and FOD damage continue to circulate, hopefully the can get this issues resolved. Unlike you I wish that Diamond, Cirrus, Piper, Epic and Eclipse succeed, competition is good for the consumer.

bill e. goat said...

Pssst- Shane- watc h yout
They'r e cmig for youuuu to o
ugh a”;:vekr;afsdffffff ;)

Gunner said...

Alexa-
You can spin this all you wish. I agreed to Eclipse's terms for sale. Before returning their own contract to me they decided to unilaterally change those terms. In order NOT to end up in the position you're now in, I walked and took my deposit back.

I'm sorry if you consider that abusive of me. But it doesn't change the facts....no matter how many times you repeat it.

Nor did I buy a single engine paper jet...I bought three. That's an important point, because it demonstrates that I'm not stretching to afford the price f a jet purchase like some of Vern's marks. Perhaps even you?

The D-Jet is hardly in the price range of a twin. There isn't a certified twin jet that can be delivered for anywhere near the price of a D-Jet...or an EA-50Phantom, for that matter. Vern's already demonstrated that.

Lastly, Diamond has a proven track record. Even where they've come up short, they've owned up and made things right, rather than finding "solace" by blaming vendors and sniping competitors. Eclipse doesn't have that track record or culture. Eclipse has Vern...and, of course, your shrill endorsement. I think you're made for each other.
Regards-
Gunner

airtaximan said...

Alexa:

I don't think there WAS a Customer Care department back then...

It was a more recent department, created out of the customers concerns regarding the blatant lack of Customer Care...

mirage00 said...

My airplane N963JG will be on display at Oshkosh. It has had the SB work completed with the new pitot static system and has been returned to service without the Day VFR limitation. Please feel free to take a peek and let me know what you think. She is a very pretty aircraft. Eclipse has been easy to work with and the training dates are set for early September.


E387 Congrats again! I will stop by and take a look at your new bird. Rumor has it, that it's not made of paper...


I remain amused

double 00

Ken Meyer said...

alexa wrote,

"What doesn’t make sense to me if someone buying a single engine paper jet for about the same price as a twin? The rumors of compressor stalls and FOD damage continue to circulate, hopefully the can get this issues resolved."

...and illustrative of how early in the process Diamond really is, they've just rolled out D-Jet S/N 2 and it even looks different than S/N 1. Check out this photo--among other significant changes, where did the winglets go?

I, too, hope Diamond succeeds. But I think the D-Jet is realistically still very much in the formative stages rather than right on the verge of certification.

Ken

Gunner said...

Ken-
I do agree that D-Jet is hardly on the verge of certification, but neither do they claim to be. Certainly, like the EA-50X, there's much work to be done before they can deliver a finished, certified product. Certainly, like the EA-50X, the D-Jet may never come to fruition. But Diamond has a superb track record and superlative history of careful design and safe operation. Eclipse.....well, we all know where Eclipse priorities are.

Diamond claims delivery of a finished product in '09. I think that's about right. Should take Eclipse just about that amount of time to deliver on its litany of IOU's, unless those are pushed back to introduce a single.

Doesn't much matter, anyway. The two jets serve different markets. D-Jet seeks the high end single engine pilot. Eclipse serves the low end twin engine pilot.
Gunner

Bonanza Pilot said...

Gunner,
thanks for the link...It is a shame that they got rid of the winglets..I really liked those! The changes to the front windows are great though.. I think SN2 is a much better looking plane! Congrats on the good choice..the big question for me is which will come first...AVIOnfg or full certification for the Djet. I am thinking Djet!

AlexA said...

Gunner said…”I bought three.” Ok, that tells me you either have 3 different personalities, you think the reliability will be poor so one should be flying at all times, you have a multiple pilot family (like Ken), or you consider it an investment and hoping to offset the cost of one aircraft. I’d bet on the first one, just kidding.

If it’s the last reasoning you ought to contact CJ3Driver he has a guaranteed return of 10% with no risk. If you are buying “futures” maybe its time to review your contract once again on your paper Diminutive-jet, since the price is subject to change without notice.

As far as my financial condition you are right. I can’t justify another three aircraft in my hangar.

fred said...

shane ....

only the first 100 ??

remember all crooked deals of the world have a common feature .....

they are such a golden oportunity =they are to be taken real fast ...!! ;-))

gunner , i understand exactly what you mean with alexa ...

i started to consider buying a VLJ with EA , being very cautious by nature , i started to dig in EA record tracks , just TOO MANY things i didn't like ...(first product , start-up , CEO from a completely different field , "disruptive" technology , financial plans out from the moon , buying contract binding you like being in jail , lacks of results , lots of marketing small achievements , etc ...etc... , the best was when i understood how they were drawing a picture of the european market quite far from reality , and making statements about achievements in EU or EasternEurop and Turkey while if you ask the right peopples at the right places you don't get the same sound for the same story ...why ? i came up with only a logical answer = to lure some , not having real ideas of what it is here , that the europeans (east and west) was starving for E500....)

Gunner said...

Alexa-
My reasoning for purchase of three D-Jets is no different than EO's reasoning for owning a number of different aircraft. Because we can.

I actually bought two, because my lady expressed a sincere desire in having one to shuttle her around the East Coast. She travels as much as I do. The third was simply because I like the company and I like the plane. Not rabid about it, mind you; I simply think it'll be a solid performer.

Judging from the serious, low key approach evidenced in that PDF, Diamond is setting expectations for buyers just like me...pilots who understand that, in a competitive free market, you pretty much get what you pay for.

Nothing revolutionary about the D-Jet. Nothing revolutionary about the Mustang. Nothing revolutionary about the Eclipse. They are what they are, and you'll likely get what you pay for. YMMV and I accept that. Time reveals everything, though...and Eclipse has burned thru a whole bunch of that.
Gunner

fred said...

one of the thing i quite liked with the guy from cessna the other day :

low profile , the right question to make sure i was interested in a plane (mustang) that would fit my expectations , guy had no real BS talks about possibilities of the mustang (specially about making long trips ) not pushing me to make any commitment , just presenting a normal aircraft for a normal price ...

nothing really "disruptive" or so completely new , nobody thought about making it 10 years ago ....!!

i am fully aware that i belong to the "old europ" (trhu it didn't take us 3 years , 2 Trillions $ and 3600 dead to understand we were not that wrong for just a total lack of any results for the next XX years...) but for the time being i prefer to rely on stuff and firms whom have been in the buisness for just long enough to have a chance to , at least , have some knowledge of what they are talking about ....!!

Real planes for real life said...

Dear Ken,

Good morning. Please answer the following questions. They have been asked and not answered on July 17, 2007 & July 18, 2007.

1.) Do you, a firm you are employed by, or another member of your family, accept compensation or payment of any kind from Eclipse Aviation?

2.) Have you accepted any payment in kind from Eclipse Aviation for services rendered anywhere, including on this 'blog'.

3.) Are you an investor in the equity or debt of Eclipse Aviation?

Once again, I think many readers of this blog deserve to know the answers to these questions so they can properly interpret your activities here.

Thank you for your consideration. I look forward to the courtesy of a reply.

Ken Meyer said...

"The D-Jet is hardly in the price range of a twin. There isn't a certified twin jet that can be delivered for anywhere near the price of a D-Jet"

I think you may be mistaken. The D-Jet is $1,380,000 in July 2006 dollars. The Eclipse is $1,520,000 in July 2006 dollars.

The Eclipse twinjet is just 10% more than the Diamond single jet. And you get a whole lot more capability from the twinjet--higher altitude, faster speed, redundant systems, lower cabin altitude, twin engine safety, and, of course, a certified airframe.

I was interested in the D-Jet--it's a good concept. I might become interested in it again when I get older and feel like stepping down into something that flies lower and slower. But right now the price is just too close to the Eclipse twinjet price to interest me.

I suspect I'm not alone. With either plane, you have to get type-rated, so many pilots will decide they might as well get the plane that flies higher and faster, is already certified, and gives their family the peace of mind that only a twin can provide. Presumably that's why Diamond has so few orders by comparison with Eclipse--one twentieth the orders or something like that, right? Maybe if Diamond lowers their price or Eclipse raises theirs, there will be more interest in it. Time will tell.

Ken

airtaximan said...

"Presumably that's why Diamond has so few orders by comparison with Eclipse--one twentieth the orders or something like that, right?"

Does anyone still really believe this BS orderbook number - I thought it was a dead issue?

PSsst...Ken: I heard a friend of Christian Dries actually sent him a deposit for a D-jet, and they gave him priority delivery positions on about 1,500 D-jets. They just don't want anyone to know this...yet. I hear at Oshkosh, they are going to announce a 200 or so, order from this guy, and boast a total bumber of "orders backed by non-refundable deposits" in the 2000-2500 range.

Perhaps THIS would convince you the Djet is a better option?

What a maroon.

Shane Price said...

Real Planes,

By now you realise that Ken will not answer when 'called' by another on this blog, where his answer is likely to incriminate.

He has a long track record in this regard, so don't feel it's just you that is being ignored.

Any facts, or logical statements, that paint him into a corner are not deemed worthy of a response. Without a response, he is able to deflect anything that might shine a light into the darker corners of the E499.5 program.

So, relax, go with the flow and learn what Ken is really about by what he says and the positions he takes.


Shane

Ken Meyer said...

AT wrote,

"Does anyone still really believe this BS orderbook number - I thought it was a dead issue?"

The presence of a large bloc of DayJet orders does not make the order book "BS," AT. They are bonafide orders and options no matter how many times you try to tell people that they are not.

But even if you totally eliminate the DayJet orders, there are still something close to 10 times as many orders for the Eclipse 500 as there are for the D-Jet.

The fact is that the D-Jet is very attractive at $1 million, but at $1.4 million, it doesn't excite nearly as many people. The orderbook merely reflects that reality.

Ken

Ken Meyer said...

Shane wrote,

"By now you realise that Ken will not answer when 'called' by another on this blog"

My answer is I don't like the accusatory tone of his message and I will not engage in the interrogation he is endeavoring to perform.

My sole connection to Eclipse as an owner is well-documented on this blog.

And everybody knows who I am. I don't need to hide behind a stupid moniker like Real Planes, AirTaxiMan and CJ3 Driver--all guys so embarassed by what they're writing that they will not do it under their own name.

Honestly, I discount every single word those guys write anyhow. I figure if a guy doesn't have the integrity and believe enough in what he's writing to put his own name on it, than why the hell should I believe what he's writing?

Ken

AlexA said...

Gunner said “because my lady expressed a sincere desire in having one to shuttle her around the East Coast.”

Single engine Jet flying through the clouds on the east coast = lady must be easily replaceable;)

fred said...

ken

i don't know if orders are "for real" thru my gutts tell me "it's smelly" ....

but that exactly where the problem lies ...

EA has to build so many planes to honor deposits and then some 500 to reach evenpoint ....

that i really doubt they can do it , unless staff accept not to be "really" paid furnishers accept to be be "not really " paid for planes which are THEM "really" delivered ...

lets say they make 100 in a year one every 3days (they are still very far from that ...) 500 is five years of production ...

how will they survive that long ?? will they rely on investors pockets ?? or on depositors ??

airtaximan said...

Ken:

They lied to you about the order book for years... you were insultingly adamant about the FACT that Dayjet only had 229 plus 70 options out of 2500 orders backed by non-refundable deposits, at E-clips.

I tried to bet you $10k on this, but you backed off... disappeared...and then Poof! Your balloon was burst when Dayjet (never e-clips, mind you) admitted in the press that they in fact had orders and options for 1400 of 2500 (stated by e-clips) orders.

You should revisit your concept of fact. In fact, the order book you so strongly defended was fiction. Dayjet even said they consider 300 orders a real possibility in the next few years, the rest... they don't know if or when they will take them. Back to FACT: has e-clips opened up their order book to you? Has anyone seen what’s really in their order book? Do we count Euro-Ed’s orders (Vern’s distributor computer buddy’s orders/options..who knows?) – again, do you in fact know anything about this order book, Ken?

The recorded history on this blog is concrete evidence that I know more than you, by a long shot on this, Ken. You were always way off base. My intuition is more accurate than your parroting, Ken. Last time, you were off by 1,000 or more “orders and options” Ken.

I know you are doing everything you can to get some aluminum for your deposit-money and progress-payment that’s gone... and THAT's the reason for perpetuating the myths.

Try not to step in your own doo-doo too often. It makes you stink of the same BS your favorite non-aircraft manufacturing company smells of to many people.

Gunner said...

Ken-
No, I wasn't mistaken. I clearly stated "There isn't a certified twin jet that can be delivered for anywhere near the price of a D-Jet"

That's an accurate statement and includes the EA-50X. Current deliveries prove my point. Oh, sure, they can deliver cripples daily. But the certified aircraft they've promised? At least a year off. And the price for delivering what they promised? Who knows?

Ken said (for the second time):
"I might become interested in it again when I get older and feel like stepping down into something that flies lower and slower."

Dunno what age has to do with it. You either have the skills and ability or you don't. If you think you're just a few years from being unable to fly a jet, you might consider selling the Cessna before you hurt yourself. You're already pushing your limits.

No, the Eclipse holds no special allure for the younger set; unless, I think, they're short on shekels. I don't buy Ford Escorts. I don't mind that some do...I just find it naive when they explain that their car is worth every bit as much as a Mercedes.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

Ken:

Take your own advice, and find a moniker to use.

You are a complete embarassement - that's for sure.

The information you have provided is BS... but your name is real -I'm sure you are proud of that fact. Why? I have no clue?

My name is a moniker, but the intel I've provided is looking pretty darn factual these days, compared to your BS.

Hard to see why you care where the truth comes from, Ken. You need to concentrate on what the truth is, not spelling or who has what name...Ken.

Black Tulip said...

CONKLIN & DE DECKER ENDORSES ECLIPSE 500 JET

Orleans, MA, July 21, 2007 - Conklin & de Decker, publisher of Aircraft Cost Evaluator, today took the unprecedented step of endorsing a single aircraft. The company is admired throughout the aviation industry for its objective evaluation of operating costs for over 380 aircraft. “On the eve of EAA AirVenture 2007 at Oshkosh, we wanted to get the news out,” said a company spokesman.

“Conklin & de Decker has long been known for its objectivity and impartiality,” he continued. “But when confronted with an aircraft as special as the Eclipse 500 Jet, we just had to give it up. Forget about the other 380 aircraft we have so assiduously researched; you want an Eclipse! We recognize the impact this may have on our consultation and evaluation business.”

“Our revised thinking began as we analyzed the direct operating costs. We recognized that Eclipse took the enlightened step of replacing the Williams engine with the Pratt & Whitney motor. Our analysts believe they did this because the Williams engine would incur an hourly reserve for engine maintenance. We applaud Eclipse for switching engines to a design that we expect to run through its operating life requiring little or no reserve. Likewise, the shift from Avidyne to other vendors for avionics, leads to an avionics package that we just don’t expect to break. They shake-it-and-bake-it and the software code is bullet-proof.”

The spokesman continued, “Next let’s consider insurance. With Eclipse’s comprehensive program including psychological testing, mentoring and especially the L-39 upset training; we just don’t expect to have any accidents. We think the insurance premium will fall to just the cost of doing the paperwork. Regarding the cost of hangaring, why the jet will fit in a little tee hangar that costs next to nothing.”

“Of course, jet fuel is a major cost for any turbine aircraft. But let’s factor in the appreciation we expect as these aircraft are delivered and the demand grows. It won’t take much appreciation to cancel the cost of fuel over the period of ownership. In the future, Conklin & de Decker may be prepared to announce the first aircraft in history with zero operating costs, both direct and indirect. You can see why we have taken the giant step of endorsing the Eclipse 500.”

“I should add that our re-examination of the Eclipse 500 was prompted by persistent inquiries from one devoted Eclipse fan. He helped us correct many erroneous numbers and assumptions. As much as we admire his devotion, we respect his confidentiality. If the time comes when we ken, er can, identify him we will. The phrases ‘value proposition’ and ‘disruptive technology’ just kept coming at us regarding Eclipse.” The spokesman’s voice dropped to hushed tones, “I can tell you that I haven’t seen a value proposition like this since that young lady in short shorts stepped off the curb on the other side of town with a value proposition all her own. Hey, sorry… don’t print that.”

Black Tulip

Ken Meyer said...

AT wrote,

"They lied to you about the order book for years.."

Eclipse Aviation, Inc. says they have approximately 2,700 orders and options for the Eclipse 500 VLJ. They have said that 239 orders and 70 options are slated for DayJet in the next 2 years. A number of media outlets, and some customers too, took that to mean that DayJet's orders and options totaled 309, period. And, for the next two years, it turns out that is the sum total of DayJet orders and options. But we now know DayJet has orders and options that extend beyond those first two years.

You have said the orderbook is "BS." You've been rather derogatory of the company on that point, but I don't see where you have ever done anything but merely assert it as if it s fact. I've not seen you present any evidence that the orderbook is fallacious, or "BS" as you like to say.

So...do you have any actual evidence to back up your claim that the Eclipse order book does not consist of approximately 2700 orders and options as the company contends?

Ken

hummer said...

Concerning the order/option numbers, of course, only Eclipse knows.
A down and dirty calculation:
DayJet 239
Options 70
Europe 180
Linear 30
Individual 850
Other 38

Total 1,407

The highest postion on Controller is position 1,407.
Seems reasonable to me.

airtaximan said...

Ken:

You believed Dayjet only had 300 orders, at one point. Strongly believed.

Nimbus was a scam. You can believe it or not, but the whole story was told in an expose... no deposit money exchanged hands, and Vern announced a firm 1000 jet order.

What is the date of the gem you included in your last post on this? Did e-clips fess up, once again (like Nimbus) AFTER a reporter dug it up and published something? We know Dayjet did this, finally.

E-clips wanted everyone to believe (as you did) that Dayjet ONLY had 300 orders of a total claimed order book of 2500. These were described as "orders and options backed with non-refundable deposits".

Once again, they provide zero transparency, and claim Dayjet has 229 plus 70 of them. Why not say the truth? 1400 or more belong to Dayjet...and how much of a non-refundable deposit did they provide?

You can "believe" what you want. You have a penchant for exaggerating the plane, the state of the plane, and mischaracterizing the company on the brighter side of the eclipse... and we all know why. You would like to receive a plane for your evaporated deposit and progress payment. It’s understandable. You have been afraid you will lose it all…

...but, stop trying to recast history. The order book has been revealed as a big lie, Ken.

Otherwise, they would have just said:

Dayjet has 1400 orders and options which are scheduled for possible delivery until whenever – it came out finally (after years) when a reporter asked Dayjet point blank – and they admitted to it… finally. This was the truth

Dayjet has 229 orders plus 70 options. This was a lie.

Perhaps you have lost the bubble on the difference between the truth and a lie?

My 5-year old has this one down pat, already Ken. Find a moniker. Save some face.
Move back to something no one can argue with – your idea of cheap = value.

Gunner said...

Eclipse claims to have about 3X the "orders" of Mustang, HondaJet and Embraer combined. There are clearly only three possible answers to this conflict:
- Mustang, HondaJet and Embraer simply don't know how to run an aircraft company.
- Eclipse is promising something that seems too good to be true and the Usual Suspects have taken the bait.
- Eclipse is simply being untruthful about its Order Book.

Not even Ken will deny that the lion's share of the Eclipse Order Book is taken up by two Air Taxi companies; one of which is on paper in Turkey, the other of which even Alexa expresses doubts regarding success.

It just seems to me that, when we look at Individual Orders, Diamond is at 300 after barely a year and Eclipse is at 800 after 8 years. Evidently, pilot owned demand for Le Petit is not nearly as high as with the pre-operational Air Taxi business.

OR the Air Taxi business has been a marketing straw man to cover the fact that individual demand for Le Petit is hardly burning records.

Hey, but why ask those questions? They represent the common sense thinking of Dinosaurs. We all know Eclipse has changed all the parameters for a successful aviation company. Vern is simply doing the same thing for Eclipse as he did for SLATE.

"SLATE chairman Vern Raburn, a former Microsoft vice president, on Microsoft's product release strategy: With few exceptions--say, DOS and Microsoft's products for the Macintosh--they've never shipped a good product in its first version. But they never give up, and eventually they get it right. Bill Gates is too willing to compromise just to get going in a business. That's what happened to OS/2. Also, he's very action-oriented and believes that it's better to make a decision and correct it later than not to make a decision." (Quoted in Fortune, 6/18/90)"
Gunner

airtaximan said...

Hummer,
I suspect the "individual number" has been exaggerated as well.

I would include a "speculator" category as well... this will enlighten the buyers/sellers of the real customers for the plane versus the ones trading beans.

As of February/AMrch there were at least 100 traded out according to Mike Press.

Since, there have been more.

I would think that if a bunch of the "individuals" were really just speculators... this would make a BIG difference in the indicated market for the plane.

Afterall, Ken seems to love the Djet if there was a bloated orderbook.

If speculators own many of the individual positions, this does not fare well... and indications are...

airtaximan said...

Gunner,

These are smart guys... but I don't like their SMARTS for this industry. Life or death.

My Doctor doesn't think that way, my AP doesn't either and neither will my A/C company.

Shoot first, ask questions later?

hummer said...

Not to change the subject, but I have a question.
I am convinced that 135 will drive the changes to the Eclipse.
The speed with the pitot update was driven by Day Jet.
Vern says that the speed modification and now being included after number 39.
Based on this speculation, what change will be completed next?

hummer said...

ATM
I think you are 110% right about the speculators. My gut feeling is of the "800" 15% to 20% are speculators.
Also there must be several like gunner who when the contract or game changed said bye bye. I say more power to him for his convictions. Then there may be another 10% to 20%
will put the aircraft on the block when they realize what Jet Complete is going to run them. Further, if DayJet doesn't cut it, they're going to be a lot of "air taxis" on the market.

AlexA said...

Hummer,

Speculators is an affliction that has affected Eclipse, Cirrus, Diamond and to a lesser extent Cessna. Notice that Gunner didn’t have a good answer for ordering 3 aircrafts. Many dinosaurs did miss the boat with Eclipse and now they are trying to bet on the new entrants. I know of at least two individuals that have multiple orders on Cirrus and Diamond.

Gunner said...

"Notice that Gunner didn’t have a good answer for ordering 3 aircrafts."
Ahhh, but yes he did. I clearly stated "Because I can." We will require at least two aircraft in the near future for personal use; perhaps three including business use. You may not like the answer, Alexa; but that sounds like a personal problem.

BTW, unlike Eclipse which has actually encouraged speculation from jump, Diamond does not allow position transfer without written consent and they've made it quite clear that they have no interest in building a secondary speculator market, of the sort Vern has encouraged.

I believe they indicated that could artificially prop their order book in the short run but only at the expense of long term viability. But what would they know? Just look how wildly profitable Eclipse has been.
Gunner

Gunner said...

BTW, Alexa, since I've been so forthcoming as to my personal affairs (in response to your earlier questions), tell me this: What do you currently fly?
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

AT wrote,

"The order book has been revealed as a big lie, Ken."

AT, you sing and dance pretty well, but despite consuming a lot of bandwidth, nothing you wrote comes close to answering my question.

I asked, "do you have any actual evidence to back up your claim that the Eclipse order book does not consist of approximately 2700 orders and options as the company contends?"

So...do you, or are you just going to thump your chest all day long, and scream to anyone who will listen that Eclipse lied?

Ken

Shane Price said...

Ken, Ken, Ken....

Give us a recent press release, Vernism, even a blog posting that continues to claim the 2700 'orders'.

Even Mr. Raburn has given up on 'that' number.

Unless, of course, you know better. Being inside the Eclipse firewall like you are. Able to 'correct' industry standard ownership costs to suit your own postion.

So, provide the proof of the magical 2700 yourself....

All you want from Airtaximan is proof of a NEGATIVE.

Show us the money Ken, for a change.

Shane

bill e. goat said...

Somebody threw a rock with a DVD tied to it through my window. Footsteps heard running away.

(Unlike our favorite aviation luminary, this one did NOT hit me in the head).

The DVD is labeled "Eclipse PLJ" (Personal Light Jet). This remarkable clandestine video provides a sneak peek at the "secret" new Eclipse airplane- sorry to spoil the surprise for everyone who is waiting in Osh Kosh.

Like the E-500, this one seems to have some payload and range/endurance limitations, but nothing a good tailwind (and press releases), won't be able to cure. Along with a few aero mods for good measure (maybe "wheel" pants to clean up the landing gear, etc.)

Remember all the puzzlement over just WHY on earth Avio was being completely overhauled? This explains it quite well; the rework is necessary for weight and volume reduction, to provide avionics commonality on both platforms.

The good news- it looks like Vern has learned his lesson on uncontrolled weight gain, this one ought to come in about on target.

I like the ballistic recovery chute too- copying Cirrus I guess, not a bad idea for ALL models, I suppose.

Eclipse has been touting their phenomenally low approach and landing speeds, I'm curious if it was not originated on this model, and carried forward to the E-500 some time ago- no telling how long this one has really been in development (like the Avio-NG story, "We've been working on this for months- years!").

Like all new programs from Eclipse, this one also has some temporary restriction for flight below 18500 (although there are rumors about only 12500 for now).

And, also like the E-500, there are some problems with the air data system icing up, and it is currently NOT approved for FIKI, but I'm sure this will also be resolved soon.

There have also been rumors of the windshields needing replacment frequently, and bird-strike tolerance is suspect. (Looks like it must use electrical anti-ice, like the E-500).

Remember all that noise over the purported divorce between Williams and Eclipse? It's obvious that was also just a cover story, and development HAS continued on the EJ-22 engines- I can see why there were too small for the E-500 now. (The need for an engine weight of 75 lbs or so is also obvious- no wonder the P&W's at 250 lbs were relegated to the larger model, and not this one).

Mouse- if Williams was able to get reliability up, and can consistently maintain 900 lbs of thrust- this thing will really be "a rocket"!!

Eclipse Sneak Peak

And remember, like the E-500,
"THIS IS NOT JUST A DREAM !!"

Ken Meyer said...

shane wrote,

"Give us a recent press release, Vernism, even a blog posting that continues to claim the 2700 'orders'."

OK

Here
Here
Here
Here
and
Here

The company has said repeatedly that the number of orders and options is 2700. The number is printed in multiple stories from multiple respected news organizations. It's the number that lenders and investors have verified when doing their due diligence on the recent financing package (it seems unlikely the company would have gotten such a large recent cash influx if they couldn't produce evidence of the claimed number of orders).

Now that doesn't prove the 2700 orders exist, but on the other side of the issue, all we have is airtaximan saying "they lied."

Ken

Shane Price said...

Ken,

The Roman Church has said for 2,000 plus years that Mary was a Virgin mother.

Eclipse have 'claimed' 2,700 orders for only 0.5% as long.

I am doubtful as to either claim.

I repeat, show us the money.

Prove they have the orders, other than the 1,100 odd 'extras' from DAYjet.

Please. With extra ice cream for a viable answer.

Shane

Shane Price said...

and, just in case no one else noticed,

all your links were to the Paper Aircraft Company

With its HQ in ABQ.

Which is just plain amusing.

I left that bit in just in case your friends felt left out.

Shane

airtaximan said...

Ken,

Please take your underpants off your head and read. This issue was settled a few months back (I guess everyone, except you bought into the idea that e-clips lied about their order book)...here's why.

For years, e-clips and dayjet told the world that eclips had 2,000, then 2,500 orders now 2700 "orders and options backed by non-refundable deposits...of which Dayjet had 229 orders plus 70 options."

A smart reporter asked Dayjet a few months ago, how many orders and options they really had - and Dayjet admitted to having more than 1400 orders and options of E-clips' 2500 order book at the time. They stated that they did not want to include the larger number, becasue they had no intention of taking any more than 300 planes in the next few years, and they did not know if or when they would ever need the rest.

Once again, in case you didn't understand the lie: Dayjet had 1400 orders, and E-clips and Dayjet always characterized this 1400 order/options as only 300...BUT they continued to tell the world at the same time that e-clips had 2500 orders.

Did they also lie when they demanded non-refundable deposits just prior to throwing the ej22 engine in the garbage?

Did they also lie when they took hundreds of progress payments based on the Avidyne avionics and shortly thereafter claimed they had been working a replacement for the Avidyne system which was summarily thrown in the garbage?

How about the claim they would produce and deliver 200 planes in 2006, and demanded progress payments... when they delivered NONE. OK, they claimes ONE but it was delivered in January.

What about the claim for 400 deliveries in 2007, and basing progress payments on this number? Ken, do you consider this:
A)a lie
B)stupidity
C)irresponsibility
D)a mistake (again)
E)all of the above

So, I guess you think all you have is airtaximan's statements "its a lie"... but that's just YOU Ken. The rest of the world has NEWS REPORTS, facts in evidence, and admissions by E-clips.

There are facts, and they add up to a big mess, Ken. You just do not seem capable of admitting to reality.

Ken Meyer said...

shane wrote,

"Prove they have the orders, other than the 1,100 odd 'extras' from DAYjet."

Huh?

Somebody says, "They lied." So I asked "do you have any evidence they lied?"

And when they don't, Shane pleads, "Prove they didn't lie!"

Is that how they do it in Ireland, Shane?

Ken

airtaximan said...

Ken:

I get POed when I see references to religion on this blog...

But, I have to admit, the only way for you to continue to post repetitions of Vern and his silly lies and mischaracterizations is BLIND FAITH.

Its blind faith...BLIND.

And it's OK, you can choose to believ the stories from ABQ in the face of facts in evidence contradicting your faith.

Just admit its BLIND faith in Vern.

PS. I think there's been some prayers heard from your bedroom at night: "Dear God, please make sure I get something for my deposit and progress payment I entrusted with Vern. I have been working hard on the blog, and I know... God helps thsose who help themselves".

AMEN

Ken Meyer said...

AT wrote,

"Once again, in case you didn't understand the lie: Dayjet had 1400 orders, and E-clips and Dayjet always characterized this 1400 order/options as only 300...BUT they continued to tell the world at the same time that e-clips had 2500 orders."

They said they had 2500 orders and options. They said that DayJet had 239 orders and 70 options during the first two years of delivery. Neither of those statements was incorrect.

So, which part was the lie?

Ken

airtaximan said...

Ken:

why did you add this:

"during the first two years of delivery"

they never admitted to this, Ken, until after the reporter got to them.

Does it make you feel "less lied to" when you add this?

Why do you need to do this, Ken. Would you not have placed an order with e-clips if you knew 65% of the order book was BS?

If e-clips HAD 2500 orders 6 months ago, why did they go on a european tour while limiting color copies, Ken? Why not just produce as many planes as they could and PROVE to the world they could actually make planes in quantity?

I guess everyone except Ken Meyer figured it out: They run out of orders pretty darn soon...the Dayjet order is mostly BS.

Ken: do you feel like E-clips and Vern are true blue honest and forthright?

I'll be amazed if you can stomach a "yes".

Why all the BS for so long? It could have just been: "dayjet has 1400 orders and options backed by $1 million, and delivery goes out as many as 15 years. In total we have 2500 orders."

I guess they lied becasue they wanted mislead folks into thinking that they did not rely on startup company for 65% of their orders, and that most of the orders were way into the future. This creates at least the mpression that someone should place a deposit, and perhaps they have an excuse to produce more than "normal" volume and justifying lower cost.

The order book was just BS. Near term orders, for the next 3 years probably really equals 1,000 total. Just a hunch, on this one. But subtract a level of BS for the whole order book, plus subtract 1100 Dayjets that they claim will not be delivered anytime soon, plus a few hundred other euro-ed orders, plus speculators... and you have a pretty small number to produce.

Anyhow, they were worried this would come out, and Dayjet blew the lid on the lie.

Ken Meyer said...

"they never admitted to this, Ken, until after the reporter got to them."

To my knowledge, they always included the clarifier, "two years," when describing the DayJet orders. And that's a critical point.

I would challenge you to show us where the company ever intentionally misstated ("lied") regarding the number of orders.

"The order book was just BS. Near term orders, for the next 3 years probably really equals 1,000 total. Just a hunch, on this one."

See, the problem is you're presenting "just a hunch" about the whole thing and concluding that Eclipse "lied" about the orders. I think that's a tall accusation that one shouldn't make without facts to back it up. You've had 4 tries at defending your accusation, but you've missed the mark every time.

I think one could argue that Eclipse didn't fully disclose because they didn't also point out, when mentioning the 239 orders over the first two years, that they also had an additional 1100 orders and options from the same company for later delivery. But "lied?" Nope; I've looked pretty hard, and I don't see where they ever lied on this matter.

I think you owe them and us an apology.

Ken

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AlexA said...

Gunner,

Give Fred Ahles a call and ask him how many aircraft he believes he has sold to speculators.

Ken Meyer said...

"I think the 2700 orders are a crock."

You prepared to say they "lied," too? You got any facts, or are you just offering us your "expert" opinion, unbiased by your inclination against them?

Whether the company "lied" or not is not a matter for majority rule any more than the other incorrect claims made here and labeled "fact" are.

I'm convinceable, but I don't lean automatically against the company the way you do. Show me the facts or don't make the claim.

Ken

Gunner said...

Alexa-
I know Fred also. Tell you what, I'll ask Fred about Diamond speculators. You just report on back what Mike Press has to say about Eclipse speculator numbers. Kay?

This is exactly what I was talking about earlier. You guys absolutely detest the fact that mainstream aircraft companies don't do business like Eclipse and aren't plagued with the problems of Eclipse. As a result, any time we point up one of the Eclipse Business Model "Dirty Little Secrets", you just can't help but point your finger at Cessna or Diamond or Lear.

Get over it, Alexa...Eclipse has created a class all it's own. And nobody but Moller is capable of getting low enough to the ground to join. Bottom feeders don't impress me. Again, YMMV.
Gunner

FlightCenter said...

From the 4/3/07 NY Times
Itineraries; MEMO PAD

"With 239 orders for the $1.5 million jets, DayJet is Eclipse’s largest customer." (period, dot, end of sentence, no qualifications.)

From an AP article dated Nov 6, 06
Light Jets could change business travel

"Eclipse has invested $500 million in development, and DayJet, an air-taxi company to start up in Florida early next year, placed 239 firm orders for Eclipse jets beginning in 2002. The companies declined to reveal how much DayJet has paid for the planes."

From another NY Times article dated July 25, 2006

Taking the Taxi to Higher Heights

"DayJet has already ordered 239 Eclipse 500’s, making it Eclipse Aviation’s biggest
customer."

Finally, this article from the June 2007 Popular Science

Mini-Jet Revolution, or Dot-Com with Wings?


"Iacobucci has ordered 239 Eclipse 500s." (period, dot, end of sentence, no qualifications.)

In the same article -

"Nascent air-taxi businesses have placed more than half the Eclipse orders — some 1500 in all. It remains to be seen how many of these startups will be able to raise their share of the $2 billion-plus required to pay for the planes they’ve ordered."

If Ed has only placed 239 orders, and he is Eclipse's largest customer and it is true that Eclipse's air taxi orders total 1,500, then who has placed the other orders?

Here is what has been announced:

Air Taxi Orders / Options
Our Plane 10 / 10
Linear Air 15 / 15
Jet Set 25 / 25
EITRAC 120 / 60
DayJet 239 / 70

Total 409 / 180

Who has placed the other orders / options if not DayJet? The answer is that Eclipse is counting DayJet (Jetson) orders / options for over 1,400 aircraft in their press releases when they say that they have a 2,700 aircraft order book.

Turns Out DayJet Ordered 1,400 Eclipse 500s

Gunner said...

FC-
Fear not. Vern has wiggle room yet. Have you seen any of his sales or accounting personnel thrown under the bus to date? Vern gets screwed every time, I tell ya. He's just too trusting.
Gunner

fred said...

flightcenter...

sounds much more like truth ....

when i saw "europ = 180 units" my blood started to spin ...

Etirc has an "intentional order" of 120 plus 60 units ...

intentional is to be read = in case airtaxi is prooven to be making a financial earning + E500 has to be agreed by EASA + Etirc has to have the capacity of buying thoses planes (financially...)

last time someone told me about so many "if..." i answered by " with a good enough if , you could put any big sized town into a soda bottle..."

i would think EA is perfectly aware they don't break the evenpoint production /order , so they have to make lots of BUZZ to cover the naked truth , and to make sure the speculators are not going to run away like mad , making the situation even more weird and financelly compromised ...!!

as for the statement "we have more orders than cesna , diamond and ..." it sounds like self-insurance against a fiasco (otherwise known as ostruch policy = if you have a deadly problem coming on you , no worries , just put your head deep in the sand ... (mustang is said to have already 200 only in europ , sorry EA you're not the N° 1...)

(if you don't see the problem , then there is no problem )

AlexA said...

Gunner,

When you speak with Fred you might want to straighten out and let him know you are keeping ALL three aircrafts. Your name appeared on the speculators list.

AlexA said...

Gunner,

Thanks for sharing the Diamond newsletter. Here is a recap. We are already 3 months behind in producing our first conforming aircraft, which by the way isn’t flying yet. Oh SN002 does not have pressurization, avionics, interior or autopilot. We have no idea when the other test aircraft will be ready. Don’t worry we can get the Canada Transport Type Certificate in 8 months (end of first quarter 2008). Then the FAA Type Certificate by Tuesday (“very shortly thereafter”).

Those Canadians must have Canada Transport in their pockets. Be happy!

airtaximan said...

Ken:

I thought your were watching and reading all you could about e-clips. I thought you read all the same news articles and press releases.

I thought you were familiar with the mischaracterizations and lies.

See flight centers news recap, for black and white.

And, if you believe the order book, as presented by E-clips, after all this... well... I guess that's your prerogative.

I have watched the company for a long time now. They are not forthright, they are not honest. I surmised Dayjet had more than 1,000 orders when there was nothing in evidence, and then a month later, BANG! They admit to accounting for 1400 orders of a total order boook stated to be 2500.

Remember, this was after 8 years and millions and millions spent on marketing an sales. Max, 1100 non-dayjet "orders" and "options". Funny thing is, not that I'm thinking more... the only "orders" they have are most likely the 229... the rest ore most likely "options" and that accounts for right around half the "orderbook. Dayjet "options". Nice.

Ken I was off by around 400 orders in favor of your little jet non-manufacturer... I gave them the benefit of even my doubt. Guess what, they surprised even me by having lied by more than 1100 orders where Dayjet is concerned. I think this is unimaginable...

So, I conclude... there's lots more BS in them there order books.

The lie already reported is the Dayjet discrepancy of 1100 "orders".

- you had 100 Aviace "orders" that are gone
- you have euro-ed "orders"
- you have the propensity to exaggerate the order book in total
- you have a lack of transparency between orders with $1 non-refundable deposit and $100,000 non-refundable deposit
- you have no clue as to orders vs. options
-you have no clue as to preferential pricing/terms/conditions used to attract some of the orders, either.

*** all of this is by design Ken. You've been had.

I would add that there's been a consistent number of between 36 and 43 e-clips listings on Controller (alone) for around a year now. I would consider this to be indicative of an order book laced with speculators. Also, indicative of the potential for anyone to pick up one of these things, at around (discount, perhaps) to the factory price. There are only two explanations for this - many folks have invested in the delivery positions, not the plane. Or, for whatever reason, the decided after all this, they simply don't want the plane. This in and of itself smells rank for the little-jet and the bloated order book numbers. As of March timeframe, there were 100 sales in the "aftermarket"... There's been no premium for the early positions, either - if you believe Mike Press. Strange considering there are only a few planes delivered to non-air-taxi-wishfulls. If you really want one of these things, you should be willing to pay dearly - they are indeed scarce!

Don't fret... your deposit and progress money are in good hands - I hear Vern took your money and went off to an island somewhere to develop and build the RIGHT plane.

- I hear it’s even smaller and cheaper... you're gonna love it!

Gunner said...

Alexa-
My name on a speculator list? Nope. Nor has Fred ever heard of you. In fact, there is no "speculator" list at all. Of course, you can easily recoup the chunk of credibility you just flushed, since you're so well plugged in at P.A.C. My deal was actually for four D-Jets. I only took three. Who took the fourth in that deal. Tick-Tock Tick-Tock.

As to Diamond's newsletter, I didn't expect it to take you long to attack them as you have attacked Cessna, Lear, Cirrus, Piper and every other higher dollar competitor of Le Petit. Smoke stands to stay low to the ground, so I'm certain it's an attractive weapon in the Eclipse arsenal.

Again you provide me the opportunity to point out that Eclipse Critics criticize Eclipse while remaining supportive of mainstream manufacturers; The Faithful lash out at all other companies and products, while remaining supportive only of Eclipse. What's up with that?

Suffice it to say that Diamond is not yet 8 years behind schedule and 5X over budget. I think I'll give them a bit-o-benefit of the doubt.

Again, you give us reasonable cause to wonder if you're a pilot at all, or just an occasional lunch guest at DayJet. Mind sharing with us what's in your hangar?
Gunner

Real planes for real life said...

Dear Ken,

Good morning, again. I see that you reacted to my questions yesterday in a response to another poster; yet the questions remain unanswered.

I am sorry to read that you “don’t like the accusatory tone” of my questions to you. Frankly, I don’t care. I’ve read a lot of pro Eclipse nonsense on this blog in the past year that I consider to be misleading and untruthful. It is time for a little bit of sunshine.

Please answer the following questions. They have been asked and not answered on July 17, 2007, July 18, 2007 and July 21, 2007.

1.) Do you, a firm you are employed by, or another member of your family, accept compensation or payment of any kind from Eclipse Aviation?

2.) Have you accepted any payment in kind from Eclipse Aviation for services rendered anywhere, including on this 'blog'.

3.) Are you an investor in the equity or debt of Eclipse Aviation?

4.) Finally you wrote on July 21 at 12:05 pm, “My sole connection to Eclipse as an owner is well documented on this blog.” Interesting admission. Could you please explain this statement? Are you stating that you own Eclipse Aviation equity or debt?

Once again, I think many readers of this blog deserve to know the answers to these questions so they can properly interpret your activities here.

I will note that on July 21, 2007 you posted 10 messages of which 8 dealt with what I would generally say is you defending the veracity of statements surrounding Eclipse Aviation’s order book. I find that curious.

Thank you for your consideration. I look forward to the courtesy of a reply.

Regards,

Real –

Real planes for real life said...

Dear Shane,

Thank you for your post yesterday. Well written.

And I read what 'Ken Meyer' writes very carefully.

Regards,

Real -

AlexA said...

Gunner,

Fred, never mentioned to me you had placed an order for four. Gunner said “My deal was actually for four D-Jets. I only took three. Who took the fourth in that deal.” Gunner talk about lack of credibility, you just admitted you are a speculator.

Hey, I have no problem with you being a speculator.

You might be right, I might not be a pilot, have no airplanes, know nothing about aviation but I sure can spot a vindictive ex-customer;)

AlexA said...

Gunner,

No need to mischaracterize my comments about Diamond. The whole point of the exercise was to point out the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I know of no company that gains anything by misleading/lying to customers. Designing, building, certifying an airplane is no easy task. Diamond is good company and I have no doubt they will get a single engine jet to market (when and for how much are still up in the air). So is Piper, Cirrus……

My question is what are you going to do when Diamond changes the terms of the deposit agreement?

Shane Price said...

Real Planes,

You are welcome. I note, however, that you didn't take my advice.

Good for you!

Airtaximan,

Sorry about the religion bit. It was a sloppy effort to make a link between Ken's insistance on the '2700' number and blind faith. In part this is my frustration with the Faithful, but you are right, I should not have brought that to the blog.

Ken,

In Ireland, where everyone knows everyone (or is related to someone who does) the bubble that is the '2700' number would have been burst long ago.

Have you any proof that Eclipse have that many orders and options, backed by deposits?

No, you don't.

Nobody does, for the very simple reason that there are not, and never have been, that many.

By now, less than 24 hours before Mr. Raburn pulls his next marketing stunt, you should be adjusting your position. Can I suggest that anyone who has ordered an E499.5 will be offered an E249.25?

For delivery Tuesday, of course.

That has to be your real worry now. Which of Vern's projects to lose money on...

Oh, the pain of the Faithful when faced with a choice.

Shane

cj3driver said...

I believe I have found the BC&A. avionics article Ken referred to regarding Aviong in the June07 issue. The article is titled “The Virtual Copilot and the VLJ. It’s a good piece on the various offerings and proposed systems offered on most of the new light jets.

1/3 of the article is devoted to Eclipse and has many quotes from Matt Brown, Avio Product Manager, and Vern himself. It’s an interesting read and gives a fairly detailed timeline for the implementation of AvioNG.. Brown explains NG will be phased into production in 3 phases.

Phase 1, due to be released mid 07, includes VFR/IFR charts, an electronic checklist and limited virtual cockpit capabilities along with limited FMS capabilities.

Phase 2, due to be released end of 07, adds weight and balance and A/C and airport performance database.

Phase 3, due to be released mid year of 08, adds interactive checklists linked to systems, interactive system synopsis, Full FMS capability, auto throttles, ARINC 424 procedure legs among other functions.

The article also state that every E500 will have a Big Brother computer on board that watches you in the cockpit. However, if you participate in Eclipses’ SMS program (similar to NASA ASRS) the pilot would be exempt from possible FAA prosecution.

fred said...

shane ...

yes you're right ...

wether in ireland (beautiful country , by the way ...) or in continental europ , peoples are so much duped ...

it starts by EASA not really in a hurry to certify a plane that may never cross the sea ...

airtaxi being a concept which most doubt it has a bright future ...

Etirc (enroled for 120 units + 60 options) released a press article where they stated " airtaxi has to be launched in USA first , then make same proof it can make some profits " (which i take for = let's see if it can work then may be = no definite order ...)

and at this time the firm does NOT have the finanacial capacity to buy thoses planes .... anyway !
(probably the reason they want to see the result in the states before trying to raise money ??!!)

if you add up all those details , you end-up this a different numbers of orders ....

as eastern europ , it's russia having the best economics conditions to be interested ....

and some russians aviation had talked about E500 , but order for the being is nada ... nothing !

Gunner said...

Alexa-
I begin to believe you are not only a non-pilot, but that you're a non-business person also. Why would I not aggregate a deal with a second party interested in a D-Jet. Do ya think we might have cut a better deal for $5.6mm in personal planes than for $1.4mm. Welcome to the world of sound business practice.

I've no problem with being called a "speculator". Speculation, for instance, would be shorting the ISS stock for $100K when it went to $29. Anybody who did that, would be a speculator...as successful one.

I'm just not certain why it's so important to you as to my motives for buying $4.2MM in D-Jets and impugning the integrity of Diamonds largest dealer. Looks like a lot of gutter smoke to me.

Thanks for the admission that you're not a pilot. I kind of wondered about all those quips about the danger of SE Jet flight in clouds.

Batter up. This one just struck out.
Gunner

AlexA said...

Gunner,

You are easier to play than car stereo! I luv you man.

By the way my concern would be FOD on takeoff! May your precious little woman have uneventful takeoffs;)

WhyTech said...

All,

At OSH - no sign of a new E-clips so far. More later.

WT

Gunner said...

Play me, Alexa?

Today you proved that you'll snipe any mainstream aircraft company going, to lift Le Petit out of it's gutter. You've as much as admitted that you're not a pilot. And you've demonstrated that you have more than enough time to Google names in order to play transparent, pre-pubescent games.

Who just got played? ;-)
Gunner

AlexA said...

Gunner,

Keep falling for it;) Just to show you there are no hard feelings I’m willing to fly down and join you for lunch at Seaside Deli so we can fix aviation. If you like maybe Fred can join us.

Gunner said...

Alexa-
You continue to amaze me with your Google ability. My name and address are hardly anonymous....pretty easy to locate the only restaurant in a sleepy seaside town.

Problem is, it borders almost on stalking, ya know? Last time a guy (you are a guy, no?) took that much interest in me, I determined that San Francisco was a real "funny" town. You do this often?

No matter. Have your pilot fly you in anytime or drive on down yourself. Lunch will be on me. In fact, I'd pay your fuel bill just to be able to say I met a real live Jack Webb type. Come to think of it, Jack was from the Left Coast also, no?

Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Looks like Pete Bedell will be the recipient of Vern's next 'no we can do that too' letter to the editor.

Bedell's excellent article in AOPA Pilot on the Royal Turbine conversion for the Beech Duke will surely elicit another outburst from our favorite clothes challenged emperor.

"Most interesting is how the economics of the Royal Turbine will compare to the uber-hyped very light jets that are coming to market."

For about $1.3M you get cruise speeds to 300 KTAS, altitudes up to FL280, and fuel flows from 45-70 gph. And here is the kicker, it actually does all this, RIGHT NOW, with no IOU's, no aero-mods, no Nfg.

What a concept.

I'll bet Vern is having a cunniption fit, right before his supposedly 'big day'.

Look for follow on posts from the faithful following that the turbine Duke isn't as efficient, not as easy to operate, unadvanced avionics, blah blah blah.

Of course that is ony when comparing the here and now Royal Turbine to the Tuesday version of the wee-Jet, you know, the one that has yet to be delivered.

Gunner said...

CWMoR-
Thanks for that. Great performance. Please tell me who does the conversion before the ankle biters arrive with their pal, Cacaphony.

Sometimes this Blog reminds me of Elvis. No, not THAT Elvis. Elvis was a gorgeous, independent, long maned, blue eyed Aussie Shepherd that I rescued as a pup. Quite a man in his day.

At age 18, he was mostly blind and took to snapping at all and sundry that came within reach and messing himself without even realizing it. I personally put him down out of respect for what he once was. If Elvis were alive today, I'd buy him an Eclipse position, just so I could explain his behavior.
Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The mod is by Northwest Turbine LLC Gunner, the old Rocket Engineering folks in WA.

The Duke has always been one of the sexiest light twins ever built in my opinion, and now has the performance to match its stunning good looks and burns Jet-A to boot.

You can get 4.5 hrs endurance with reserves at about 250KTAS in the mid-20's on 45gph, might compare reasonably well to your forthcoming gaggle of D-Jet's.

BTW, I really like the improvements to the D-Jet from the prototype to the conforming SN002, MUCH better looking, especially the cockpit windshield\windows. I am sure it will be everything you hope and more.

www.royalturbine.com I think.

AlexA said...

Gunner,

If I can arrange it would you like to take a ride around the pattern on a E499.5?

Gunner said...

Alexa-
Thanks, but no thanks. I don't generally fly experimentals with pilots I don't know...including yours.

How 'bout that lunch, though?
Gunner

Gunner said...

CWMor-
That is one FINE looking aircraft and I know of no-one (including me) who dislikes the Duke. Performance for this mod is pretty damned good for the VLJ crowd. Count me in as a very interested party.

Thanks again.

Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

You guys act like the royal turbine duke is something that is just being announced. Where have you all been? Anyone have an update on Darwin? He fell from his deck and landed on rocks 30 feet below and was banged up real bad during the first week of July. Good guy and he does turn out great products. I love my JetProp and the Duke is cool but I want a newer airframe.

Gunner,

The Eclipse is not an experimental and you're missing out not taking a free demo ride. But thats your perogative.

Air Jordan,

Sorry for the late response. Sounds like you are interested in buying my Eclipse and for you I will consider it. Good to see you coming around! ;-)

Gunner said...

EO-
In was offered a ride on an "E499.5". There is no such certified aircraft in the registry; therefore it must be an Experimental.

Like I said, I don't fly experimentals with pilots I don't know. Even worse, imagine the how Alexa's preoccupation with pennies might affect his (her?) choice of pilots.

No thanks. When you get yours, with full IOU canceled....perhaps.
Gunner

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
EclipseOwner387 said...

ColdMacFish said Northwest Turbine is the old Rocket Engineering guys. For clarity - Northwest Turbine LLC is NOT the new name for Rocket Engineering Corporation. Rocket Engineering is still the brains beind all the conversions. JetProp LLC is the jetprop affiliate. Northwest Turbine LLC is the Royal Turbine Duke affiliate. West Pacific Air, LLC is the Turbine Air affiliate (Turbine Bonanza.) When I was there they were also working on a Baron project. Not sure where that stands.

EclipseOwner387 said...

9Z,

Hope you don't get eaten up too much. I didn't see SN38 so I can't comment on that airplane. However, SN28 had similar issues that were documented and photographed by Aviva in our punch list. These minor cosmetic issues will get resolved and do not affect flight in any way. Because the aeromods will require substantial painting I don't expect to have a truly "finished" job until that time. Painting is not rocket science and Eclipse will get it right.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
EclipseOwner387 said...

I just checked to see if N963JG (SN28) was on FlightAware and it was. It flew up to Oshkosh on Saturday. Demonstrated the full RVSM envelope for the airplane.

Enjoy.

Ken Meyer said...

EO387 wrote,

"I just checked to see if N963JG (SN28) was on FlightAware and it was. It flew up to Oshkosh on Saturday. Demonstrated the full RVSM envelope for the airplane."

Thanks, EO. That certainly ought to put to rest the comments people have been making about how the Eclipse cannot be flown IFR or cannot go into RVSM airspace.

Congtratulations! I can't wait to check out your plane.

Ken

Gunner said...

Ken said:
"That certainly ought to put to rest the comments people have been making about how the Eclipse cannot be flown IFR or cannot go into RVSM airspace.

I guess someone's been conveniently nappy-time these past six weeks and the past two dozen orders. Good for him...sleep helps cure delusion.
Gunner

skyrebel22 said...

New Eclipse V-tail jet????
http://forums.aopa.org/attachment.php?attachmentid=10143&d=1185139097

BD5 Believer said...

Wow....thanks SkyReb!!

If this is the long awaited next project, it should be a very interesting morning at Osh-be-Gosh

mirage00 said...

Hmmmmmmmm

New Eclipse Jet

I remain amused!

double 00

bill e. goat said...

I give up.
ANOTHER Rutan special???
Do people NEVER learn?

(s-u-r-e looks like one. Maybe our man Stan will bag the details).

hummer said...

What a trump card!

Shane Price said...

Is it a bird?

Is it a plane?

No, its a BatPlane....

Roll up, roll up, place your investments (sorry, deposits) now. The Great Raburn pulls his next mis-direction trick.

Again.

I'm sure the Faithful will see 'the beauty within', but that is one ugly looking yoke to my eyes.

And look at 'provisional' specs. FL410, 1100Nm, 340Tks, 4 seats.

Who wants that E499.5 now?

Expect a sudden flood on Controller....

Shane

fred said...

situation looks more and more weird ...

after loads of cash burned , planes unfinished , engines maker fired , tronics guys thrown-out the window , lots of delays .....
lots of BS...
lots of misrepresentation of factual ...

NOW (tada da .... little music )

why paying "SO MUCH" for a two engines while you can have a single one for half the price ???

for a "little beauty" costing half of the big brother , op-costs half of e500 (be carefull it was already so many % less than competitors , i wonder if vern made the ultimate plane earning money when flying ;-)) )

for a price of only 50 nautics less than big one and 35knots/hours less....

and only ONE pax missing ..!!!

who's going to come-off with a brilliant idea of "on demand death trip " ??? ;-))

i almost laughed my ass off when i read "It's a concept ...." and "not availlable for sale " ...

apart from being a nice "death-trap" (i had a friend in BundesLuftwaffe , he told me " to fly on single engine jet , you have to have Corrones bigger than the engine ..."
what a nice way to lure some others into something new ....

(while no having time anymore to cater about unfinished first one ??)

fred said...

i forgot :

they are desperatily looking for money (progress payments asked for no progress really made ...) and they spend so much for "an ultimate tool for market research " ahahhahahah ....!!! ;-))

i forsee in a few years the story will be sold to "hollywood" and it's going to be quite a good fiction ....and the first time EA is going to MAKE profits .... = next concept = movies about aircraft maker ....!!!

WhyTech said...

Report from OSH:

In the dark of night E-clips smuggled a single engine "concept" acft into their exhibit. Think Cirrus "The Jet." No price or production commitment yet according th exhibit staff. Also think excrutiatingly tiny; if you think the EA 500 is small, wait til you see this - you wear it!

WT

redtail said...

Fred said... apart from being a nice "death-trap" (i had a friend in BundesLuftwaffe , he told me " to fly on single engine jet , you have to have Corrones bigger than the engine ..."

I hope that's just a problem in translation. How come you never said that for the Diamond or the Cirrus. This is just anti-Eclipse sentiment for the sake of posting senseless drivel. By your thinking, all single engine piston aircraft should be rounded up and plowed under. Your thoughts, or lack thereof, make almost as little sense as your broken English.

airtaximan said...

Redtail...

after seeing the pictires of the littler-jet...

I now understand your moniker...

Cute

EclipseOwner387 said...

Air Jordan,

Now we have proof you are not a pilot! You are color bind. The tail is orange!

Just kidding.

planet-ex said...

Anyone bother to check the pedigree of that puppy?

N5184U
SE-400-001
SWIFT ENGINEERING INC 05/25/2007
MARK 400

Appears to be the same company that builds racecar bodies.

Now I wonder where Eclipse got the money to fund that aircraft...

airtaximan said...

387,

it looks red.. is it orange?

any bids on your plane yet?

I'm thinking of marketing a new product...

- the "e-clips IFR enabler"

An e-clips white rubberized magnetic strip a few inches tall by a few feet wide... with the words "EXPERIMENTAL". Just snap it on (like your local "lawn maintenance company" or "painting contractor" magnetic sign on the door of their venhicles) and fly wherever you wish!

;)

Enjoy the show!

FlightCenter said...

The ECJ seems to have a lot in common with the V-Jet concept aircraft that Williams flew to Oshkosh in 1997, including the forward swept wing.

hummer said...

whytech
Is it large enough for Travolta (with out the hairspray fatsuit, of course) to fit in?
Look out Hollywood.

JetProp Jockey said...

Relative to the posts about the Duke conversion and Darwin:

The most recent post at the forum was posted by Warren Woods, long time friend and business associate of Darwin:

Darwin Conrad sustained an injury accident over the July 4 holiday. Jeanie Sadler has been by his side throughout the recovery at a local hospital and sends the following:

"Thank you all for of your concerns, messages and prayers. Although he has a number of sore spots, he's recovering fast and looking forward to being back at JetPROP and Rocket Engineering very soon."

I understand that the only negative to the Duke conversion (besides the age of the converted airframe) is the although the converted aircraft is certified to FL280, the limitation of the cabin pressuriation differential requires O2 above the upper teens or low 20's.

You'll never find a more loyal group of owners than JetProp owners, and I would suspect the Duke owners are equally as happy - the gallery shows 8 have been delivered.

The Bonanza project was STC'd several years ago, but with no pressuration, the demand has been limited.

ExEclipser said...

Has anyone figured that the Eclipse Concept Jet and Websites appear to be fakes?

Looks like the domain eclipseconceptjet.com is registered to:
Trance Tronics
1710 McCormick Road
Apt. C
West Lafayette, Indiana 47906
United States

In all my years at Eclipse, I am confident that there were never any ties to a company called Trance Tronics in Indiana.

Maybe Eclipse can sue these people for using their trademark logo and copyright...

FlightCenter said...

From Aero-News this morning.

"Eclipse currently has more than 1,300 employees, nearly 2,700 orders for the Eclipse 500 and over 400,000 square feet of facilities available to ramp production up to four jets per day."

Nearly 2,700 orders is the same figure Eclipse was using at EBACE on May 23, 2007.

Again from Aero-News this morning.

"By the end of the second quarter this year, Eclipse had certified a total of 31 Eclipse 500s and delivered 22 to customers. "

FAA data as of this morning shows 28 aircraft certified by the end of second quarter and 16 registered to customers by the end of second quarter.

The FAA database shows a total of 21 aircraft registered to customers with 5 of those registrations occuring in July.

FlightCenter said...

execlipser,

Go to www.eclipseaviation.com and you will see that the ECJ is prominently featured on Eclipse's website.

flightguy said...

I found a hot spot at Osh Kosh 'B Gosh.

The SEJ Eclipse ConceptJet looks alot like a cheap knockoff of the VJet or the Cirrus jet.

Where is the Eclipse Logo? This must really be a quiet project.

It's creating buzzzzz-- first thing in the morning. I noticed the Garmin handheld GPS still inside the cabin.

Vern certainly knows how to distract the focus from delinquencies in the E500, Schedule, payments, and his ego. WHoopsn no his ego is still obvious. No explanation as to who really paid for this project. Could it have been the deposit holders fronting the cash for parts on their plane?

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