Tuesday, August 28, 2007

The blog is Now Writing Vern's Future Letters

From a critic, CJ3driver, as a way out of the current no-win situation of having perhaps hundreds of contracts written years ago that fail cover today's cost to build:

Albuquerque, NM

August 28, 2007

Dear loyal Eclipse customer,

We sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding during the difficult and lengthy process you have endured while awaiting your promised jet. I’m very sure your frustration will diminish when you finally slide into the cockpit of your new Jet, which is faster, highly improved and fully completed.

As with any aircraft manufacturer, it is in the best interest of the customers that the company you have put you trust and faith in, remains a viable entity, so that we may serve and support you well into the future.

Therefore, it is with deep regret we must come to you, our faithful and trusted customers and make this offer to you.

Due to rising costs, unforeseen technical and certification issues, along with market production volume demand matrix dynamics, we are now forced to implement an across the board price increase. In order to be fair to all customers, the increase will be effective immediately on all undelivered aircraft, and shall be in the amount of $500,000.

Attached is a financial proforma showing you, our valued customer, that with the price increase, we will be able to produce your jet, and still make a reasonable profit. The benefit to you, our valued customer, is that you can rest assured that your aircraft will come to fruition and the Company behind it will be there to stand with you for many years to come.

Please keep in mind, this increase is on every new jet we produce. Therefore, if you currently have a position locked in at $995,000 your new price will be $1,495,000 if you have an order at $1,520,000 plus CPI, your new price will be $2,020,000 plus CPI. Any new orders shall be at 2,195,000 plus CPI. Therefore all customer equity remains intact and actually may increase.

At $2,195,000 The E500 is still the lowest priced, fastest, most advanced and lowest cost to operate VLJ certified and ready to fly today.

As you are aware, the deposit agreement allows a refund to customers if certain guarantees are not met. Therefore we regret to inform you that Eclipse can no longer guarantee the price as described in the agreement.

Refunds on existing contracts will be granted and interest will be paid at 10% per annum, for the entire time your funds were on deposit with us. However, depending on the number of refunds requested, Eclipse reserves the right to disburse beginning with the lowest serial numbers first and shall be distributed as deliveries are accomplished. Exceptions will be made to those willing to take a cash settlement at a lower amount.

We trust you will stand with us and we have stood by you, and allow us to complete your dream for you.

Sincerely

Your leader

V

And a letter predicted for release at NBAA by one of the loyal Faithful, alexa:

Atlanta, GA

September 25, 2007

Dear Loyal Eclipse Customer,

We sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding during the difficult and lengthy process you have endured while awaiting your promised jet. I’m very sure your frustration will diminish when you finally slide into the cockpit of your new Jet, which is faster, highly improved and fully completed.

I am thrilled to announce the following:

1. Two fractionals have placed orders for 120 Eclipse 500.

2. The new Double Eagle training facility is now fully operational.

3. To date we delivered 75 aircraft to our customers and have finally achieve a production rate of 1 aircraft per day.

4. The Albany service center is now operational.

5. There are five test aircrafts flying with the Avio NG. The first aircraft with Avio NG cut in entered the line yesterday and is scheduled for completion within 30 days. We have been able to deploy Avio NG on an earlier schedule.

And finally much to the haters dislike we are on schedule to begin delivering two aircraft a day in early April.

Sincerely,

Vernster

434 comments:

1 – 200 of 434   Newer›   Newest»
bill e. goat said...

Alexa,
O2 - Quickly!!!

:)

bill e. goat said...

"how much does Vern need to raise in order to become the BIGGEST financial failure in GA history?"

I don't care how much money Vern burns, what I care about is the health of the US aviation industry.

Vern selling at a loss, while the $B club underwrites his incompetence? Well, money to burn. Gotta have some sport in life.

But when it puts price pressure on other legitimate companies, that are run competently, and drives their profit margins so low they go out of business, that's when I care about what this subsidized dabbler is messing up.

Ken Meyer said...

One of the naysayers complained that Eclipse just isn't ramping up production as fast as they should.

So, I took a look at the CitationJet series. I found something amazing.

Ten years after the introduction of the CitationJet, Cessna delivered a grand total of 78 CitationJets of all stripes--CJ, CJ2, etc. (and the year after that, it dropped to 53).

Eclipse will deliver twice as many 500's this year as Cessna delivered CJ's 10 years into production.

But that's just too slow a rampup...

In the naysayers' eyes.

Ken

Stan Blankenship said...

Black Tulip said...
Stan I have a question. Although type rated in the Lear Jet 20/30 series, my experience with them is quite limited. Those aircraft carry a lot of fuel in the tip tanks and polar moment of inertia in roll is an issue.

I was taught to burn fuel out of the tip tanks before landing. I believe a number of Lear Jets have cartwheeled on landing as the pilot flying began to chase the ailerons with pilot induced oscillation.

BT - PIO's were a real problem with all the Lear's with tip tanks, even with dry tips. There are several techniques to stop the roll, a little cross control, l. aileron/r. rudder worked best for me.

Will the "B" mod Eclipse suffer a similar problem, will have to wait for some to get in the field.

I did receive a pilot report in my morning mail a few days ago. The faithful have declared these messages suspect but I will put it up anyway:

"...a lot of fun to fly, handles real good, a little stiff in roll, easy in pitch, once I’m used to the glass display, it will be easier to fly (at least down low) without the autopilot. Currently I have trouble holding altitude spot on because of the above combination.

Very quiet and smooth, even in mild summer bumps, I assume this is the wing loading. Feels like a much larger plane. Very easy to fly in the pattern, hold speed numbers, maneuver and land.

Every landing has been a non-event, almost perfect landings. The fuel, electrical and rest of the system information is truly amazing in this plane. This is the way of the future. Too bad we have to relearn the good old bearing pointer / vor / dme way of instrument approaches for our checkride.

Single engine work is feet on the floor, maybe a 2 degree bank or some rudder trim for correction."

bill e. goat said...

"Ten years after the introduction of the CitationJet, Cessna delivered a grand total of 78 CitationJets of all stripes--CJ, CJ2, etc. (and the year after that, it dropped to 53)".

Observation:
That's because the DEMAND is for 50-70.

I think there is a hint buried in there somewhere...

:)

mirage00 said...

I did receive a pilot report in my morning mail a few days ago. The faithful have declared these messages suspect but I will put it up anyway:

Better late than never Stan. It only took you a few hours to post this mornings 40% turnover email. Par for the course...'

In any event, we thank you for the information, no matter how painful it must have been to post. Well done. Hey, maybe another new trend??

I remain amused

double 00

Bassmaster said...

This was posted on the previous thread just as the new thread came up so I copy/pasted. I just found this site. Very interesting. Particularly the Lears with tip tanks cartwheeling. They typically have 2 yaw damper computers and 2 servos, primary and secondary. Dutch roll is a fact of life. "Swept wings", I assume refers to the swept TE and straight LE of 20,30,40,50 and 60 series Lears? I don't know much about the E500 except for basic wing planform, straight LE tapered LE. Does it have a yaw damp system? I've heard Lear 20 and 30 series pilots say that the fuel weight in the tips actualy adds stability in most modes. This comes from 10K+ hour pilots though. The fuel can be dumped fairly quickly from the tips if needed.

baron95 said...

Not sure if this has been posted, but the Eclipse 500 fetched $1.834M on the eBay auction...

I guess that is the market price for those that MUST have it now (first on the block). That must be similar to premium people pay for cars (e.g. $5-10K over sticker when the mazda miata first came out). So after this efect wears off, looks like $1.6M is in the ballpark of market price. So Eclipse is prety close on that.

Only question left is what volume the market will demand at those prices and what share of the market Eclipse will have.

Here is the link...
http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Eclipse500VLJDraws_1.8Million_eBayAuction_196017-1.html

Metal Guy said...

"Ten years after the introduction of the CitationJet, Cessna delivered a grand total of 78 CitationJets of all stripes--CJ, CJ2, etc. (and the year after that, it dropped to 53)".

And the US government ordered 5 space shuttles and NASA delivered exactly 5 space shuttles.

What’s your point?

Gunner said...

Ken said:
"See, last year, Gunner thought a lot about the Eclipse 500 and the company. He studied them in great detail"

I respond to this, Brother Ken, not to tell you about me, but to tell you about Eclipse. Here was a company that took $130K and a signed agreement that THEY PENNED. TWO DAYS after cashing the check, they informed the mark.....errr "customer", that they didn't like their own contract anymore. They were sending out a new, revised, improved contract which was devoid of serial number guarantees for the Customer to sign.

The customer balked, walked and got his money back. He's kinda funny like that. Of course, in VernWorld, that's called "refusing to kowtow to a customer".

Tell me did you get your money back when they played the same game on your Progress Payment? No, I didn't think so.

That may explain why you cruise the Web Sites, hawking the EA-500. You have to. I don't. My money is in my pocket. Yours is tied up as an unsecured loan to a failing company that promises you your plane....when?

Of course, this may explain why the "due diligence" on your last aircraft purchase resulted in taking your wife up in a ten year old, in-flight crashed Cessna 340; all the while, exclaiming it the perfect "Value Proposition". I didn't.

Do lecture us again on how "safe" the EA-50X is, Ken. I dearly love hearing it in context of your previous aircraft purchase decisions.

Gunner

Gunner said...

Oh, my, look what I just noticed-

Ken said:
"like he studied the back end of that lady's car--the one who got the $1,750,000 settlement from him"

That's no longer a quote from a web page. That's an actual statement of fact in Ken's own words.

Sorry for the momentary sidetrack, all. Time to keep it real.

Ken-
Do you realize this constitutes legal libel? Are you aware it constitutes SERIOUS legal libel and you cannot depend on what you read or heard as defense once you've made this statement in your own words?

Are you aware that an IMMEDIATE retraction and unilateral apology is probably the only defense against a libel claim (unless of course you can prove the statement to be true)? Do you realize that I'm requesting, in the same public venue as that libel, such retraction and apology in order to avoid, at all costs, any further action?

I'm sure you're aware of these things, Ken, just as you're aware that damage already done is only mitigated by retraction and apology.

Your move, Brother.
Gunner

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

9Z-
Thanks for the intel.

As I see it, you're on the money when you talk about the VLJ Meltdown possibility. For it NOT to happen, we would have already seen a marked increase in private pilot training. We haven't. The market has to come from somewhere, and the idea that people who can't afford more than a couple mill for an aircraft will be willing to keep a pilot on payroll is ludicrous.

As to Diamond, the way I'd look at it is you only have a $20K deposit riding; and I really doubt they're going under. I do agree that they priced it for what it WILL sell for, not what the cheap seats market will pay; but I don't think the company will belly up over this venture. They've been pretty darned conservative so far.

Your deposit will either be worth a premium for the position or will be refunded if they abort. That's my best guess.

Best of luck, in any case.
Gunner

Bassmaster said...

After going through some of the threads of this blog I must say I had no idea how speculative, (regarding various business models and opinions) the regulars of this site are, before publishing my first comment. I was just looking for some tech info on the plane. I've sifted through the companies site quite extensively and as you can't BS a BS'r I wanted to learn more...but this seems to be a bit much.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mouse said...

Ken,

Again with the false BS? How many planes to Cessna build? They have how many models? CJ's account for maybe 10% of their sales?

cj3driver said...

Ken said;

“… Eclipse will deliver twice as many 500's this year as Cessna delivered CJ's 10 years into production…. “

Ken,

Cessna could purchase Vern’s entire production for this year and next year (maybe even the following year), … and give the Eclipse’s away for FREE, and still make a profit.

The only reason the “naysayers” are interested in volume, is because volume is the only way to get the cost down low enough to even remotely come close to a profit for Eclipse. Without the volume, … no low cost parts. And all that overhead gets spread over a much smaller number of units. And then, …. No low cost jet. And hundreds and hundreds of unsecured depositors left holding the bag.

The product has a niche market. It certainly exists. It’s just not a volume market. It’s a toy for a person with a $15 million plus net worth.

The dilemma is, in order for Eclipse to remaining a viable entity in order to support the fleet, there must be a volume market. Where is the volume market? DayJet? This is what the critics want to know. This is what the faithful fail to see. This is what the faithful think Vern can see, and blindly follow.

IMO DayJet will soon discover that the Eclipse is too small, and too costly to operate on a per seat basis. If Eclipse doesn’t get their act together and start cranking out completed planes soon, (before the demise of DayJet), because without the fat order book it will be almost impossible to get more funding The investors and vendors will get even more nervous that they probably already are.

Eclipse has already sold out most of their entire market for the next ten years. If Eclipse survives, the market will be feeding on existing positions and existing inventory for the next few years. If DayJet fails, where are the five hundred new customers per year going to come from?

My bet, in the long run, its Cessna and Embraer dominate the VLJ market. They have, (or will have) plenty of "move up" products that generate substantial profits to draw from. The remaining VLJ contenders will make honest attempts, but low volume and lack of high profit move-up products, will keep the price high and profits and volume low. Just like the TBM, Pilatus and Meridian.

You definetly need to promote Eclipse’s volume milestones, because with out them, the company is history. As far a Cessna, I believe the volume division is single engine piston. Jets are for the lucky few.

rcflyer said...

Some interesting legal facts from Wikipedia about defamation, which includes libel:

Truth is an absolute defense against defamation.

Statements made in a good faith and reasonable belief that they were true are generally treated the same as true statements; however, the court may inquire into the reasonableness of the belief. The degree of care expected will vary with the nature of the defendant: an ordinary person might safely rely on a single newspaper report, while the newspaper would be expected to carefully check multiple sources.

In most jurisdictions, actual damage is an essential element for a libel claim.

R.C.

mouse said...

The defense rests.

RCFlyer???

On Wikipedia? You are kidding, right? Wikipedia is a site where anyone can go in and modify it. It's not a dictionary, or encyclopedia, its an internet toy.

Sorry, I just couldn't let this slide like it must be true, it is on Wikipedia...

CJ3 Driver... right on the money!

Turboprop_pilot said...

Good morning.

I’ve been reading this blog a long time and haven’t contributed previously. I attended the Boston Critic’s lunch a couple of months ago and met several highly qualified engineer/pilot/entrepreneur types who regularly write here.

A posting about aero/non aeromod speeds by EO387 caught my eye

“HSC, FL350, 5500lbs, ISA:

AeroMod: 369kts
PreAero: 351kts

HSC, FL350, 5500lbs, ISA+10:

AeroMod: 346kts
PreAero: 326kts

HSC, FL350, 5500lbs, ISA+20:

AeroMod: 316kts
PreAero: 300kts”

I previously flew a TBM700C2 and attended the two day pilot’s engine course at P&W Canada. The TBM had three cruise settings: Max, recommended and long range cruise. Max cruise produced ITTs of about 760-770 degrees C and recommended cruise was 745-750. When asked, the Pratt instructor said running at max cruise would usually cost about $30,000 more at Hot Section and overhaul. The TBM would struggle on ISA+20 days, with power settings below 80% torque in climb and recommended cruise and climb rates below 500 fpm in final climb stages above FL260.

From EO387’s numbers it looks like Eclipse present P&W engine is running at its thermal limits a lot of the time: 6,000 feet below its service ceiling on an ISA+20 day, it can only make 316 knots at HS cruise. A careful review of the AFM would need to be done to see how conservative the ITT temperatures are for HSC at various altitudes, but to this experienced engineer, it looks like they have had such weight growth in the program that they exceeded the first engine, switched to the Pratt 610 and have maxed out this engine too.

Too small an engine, run at its thermal limits a lot of the time means:
1. Reduced longevity
2. Reduced reliability
3. Higher maintenance costs
4. Higher overhaul costs
5. On high and hot days, marginal takeoff, climb and cruise performance

The performance would appear to back up someone's claim that they are at the limit of the present engine.

rcflyer said...

mouse said,

"On Wikipedia? You are kidding, right?"

Lol. While Wikipedia is not exactly an unimpeachable source, the statements I posted are in agreement with my lay knowledge of the law, so I used them as a convenient source.

If anyone has any information to the contrary, the floor is open for debate.

R.C.

airtaximan said...

From Gunner to Ken:
"Yours is tied up as an unsecured loan to a failing company that promises you your plane....when?"

and Ken's initial post on this string is how happy he is that despite promising 1400 airplanes deliverd by the end of this year, Ken is perfectly content that e-clips only delivered 40 planes so far. His reasoning, Cessna only delivered X, Y or Z during some period of time.

sould tell everyone something about this guy, his posts and his reasons for being an e-clips billboard here...

He's afradi he's going to get zero for his progress payment.

Buck he seems so happy about it all the time!

bill e. goat said...

Metal Guy:
"the US government ordered 5 space shuttles"

Vern:
Demand for OUR shuttle is ASTRONOMICAL!!!

------------------------
Ken's point about Eclipse ramping up is not without merit, but neither is the observation regarding demand.

If Eclipse delivers 40 or 50 airplanes in the first year of production, that's actually quite an impressive accomplishment for a new company.

One with 1400 employees, and is 5 years late, well, ah, still: nice job. And it looks like they're going to exceed that number somewhat (the delivery number- maybe the head count and years late number too :).

But 50-70 per year is the demand Cessna sees for that model after a few years, I don't know what the sustainable demand for Eclipse without air taxi will be, (GUESS) around 160-225, maybe 250+ per year for a couple of years- and as Ken pointed out with Cessna, dropping after that. With air taxi, well, I'd (GUESS) around another 40-80 ?

(I think a fair number of the "guestimations" on the blog have tended (TRENDED :) to be more accurate than Eclipse's statements).

airtaximan said...

turbo prop pilot,

yes. And what do you suspect the affects are on smaller and smaller engines?

precisely.

Calculate running these things on the dayjet air taxi missions. Many, many cycles, flying low, many hours.

hummer said...

ATM - Turbo prop pilot

"Say it aint so, Joe"

The beta testers are now in the field and if this bird is in the shop more than it is in the air, Vern better start securing deposits on the Concept Jet cause it's all over except for the shouting.

A work horse is different than a show horse.

airtaximan said...

Clydesdale vs. Shetland pony, really...

hummer said...

What kind of procedure would be involved if the PW615F was substituted for the PW610F?

WhyTech said...

ATM said:

"From Gunner to Ken:
"Yours is tied up as an unsecured loan to a failing company that promises you your plane....when?"


Its actually much worse than this. The deposit/progress payments are not a loan in a technical/legal sense, and E-clips has no repayment obligation so long as they assert that they intend to deliver an acft. Additionally, while these payments create a liability on the E-clips books, this liability does not have the same legal standing as a loan in terms of who gets paid first in the event of bankruptcy. AFAIK, the only obligation E-clips has is to deliver an airplane. If they are unable to do so, they may choose to refund the deposit/progress payments, but will probably not be in a poistion to do so. If E-clips files for a Chapter 11 reorganization, the bankruptcy judge could elect to wipe the slate clean of these liabilities, leaving virtually no legal recourse for depositors.

Sleep well!

Weasel words: I am not a lawyer, but play one on TV. I have (unfortunately) been involved in many bankruptcy proceedings as an investor. The above is accurate to the best of my knowledge. You are advised to consult a bankruptcy attorney if you wish to clarify your position as a depositor/progress payer.

WT

EclipseOwner387 said...

Hummer,

My concern would be fuel capacity to power the 615.

I think all this talk of engine wear and tear is premature. Take a turboprop operator's view of a this situation with a grain of salt. I am finding that the opinions for non-turbofan operators are limited to the specifics of their planes limitations. He could be right but I trust Pratt (with my life actually) and if they are fine with the operating envelope then we should be cautiously optimistic that the engines will wear normally.

Just my opinion. I am not in the business of building turbines nor airplanes.

airtaximan said...

Ken said regarding Gunner:
"like he studied the back end of that lady's car--the one who got the $1,750,000 settlement from him"

Gunner, I have no respect left for you whatsoever. You should be ashamed of yourself. Please do not disgrace this blog with your presence... you have zero credibility left.

- consider your character assasinted.

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

see the mustang for the right plane and specs for the 615 in twin config.

Shane Price said...

ATman,

Stop stirring it up with Gunner and Ken.

You're like the kid pouring a can of petrol (gas) on a bonfire....

Heard anything from DayJet? It's been very quiet since they announced the new money on the 7th.

Just curious. I thought they were dead set on flying paying passangers this week i.e. before the end of August. We know they have had a number of E499.5's in the air over the past few days...

Shane

Gunner said...

AT-
That was dumb.....like a fox!
;-)
Gunner

ExEclipser said...

Hummer - From what I understand, the engine beam can barely support the weight of the PW610F, much less a 612 or 615.

That being said, there is still power in the 610F. I think it can be upped to around 1100 lbs of thrust, of course at the cost of fuel and range.

bill e. goat said...

"he studied the back end of that lady's car"

I've studied the back ends of ladies, and their cars, and got in trouble for it too- so I don't know what all the hub bub is about...

ExEclipser said...

More on DayJet:
A quick review of FlightAware shows that 10 of the 12 flying DayJet aircraft have flown in the past week. As a fleet, they've totalled about 70 hours of flying. That averages 7 hours per ship, or one hour per ship per day. Of course, this is just tracked, flightaware time, not actual.

The interesting thing is the peak of activity the last two days. Four planes have flown between 4:45 and 7:30 in a single day.

airtaximan said...

Dayjet should be finished (ing) their proving rns, and I think they said they will fly their own employees for a while, before revenue flights.

They should be taking passengers soon.

Contrary to what some of the more vocal (the village idiot, actually) die-hards have said, it will be a great thing IF Dayjet works.

The confusion over what they are doing and the rediculous contention that it will hurt the charter operators, is well, ignorant.

If their point-to-point pseudo-scheduled service works, it should raise awareness of all things charter. People can, (as long as they realize not all jets are that rediculously small) fly charter to save time.

So, the posts regarding ATMan's fear of Dayjet and this being the reson for Dayjet skepticism, is well - dumb.

There's a lot to be skeptical about - and this has nothing to do with competing with conventional charter.

The missions are completely different... unless somehow you are in charter operating little props between very small and close together markets... and are worried about another company coming in at 2-4x the price.

Go-Dayjet-Go!

Niner Zulu said...

Bassmaster, yes there is a lot of speculation here about the long-term viability of the Eclipse business model. Reason: if Eclipse can't stay in business, for whatever reason, what difference will the performance figures make? Who will service your aircraft, even if it does get delivered?

Several things have transpired since Eclipse started taking orders, which I believe was as early as 2001 but don't quote me on that:

1. JetA prices have more than doubled

2. The housing bubble has burst and is in the early stages of a decline. We're about 1 year in to the decline, with maybe 5-7 years to go. A lot of the "wealth effect" of seeing your home price go higher and higher is gone. This is already affecting buyers' perception of what they can afford, whether it is owning their own jet or using one of the many "air taxi" services. If the market declines as far it does after most bubbles (as I expect), housing prices will actually dip below the "mean" which means there is a lot more pain left on the downside. This will have a huge negative impact on consumer confidence, and would negatively affect the VLJ market as well as the entire general aviation market.

3. liquidity in the lending market is drying up. The problem started in the subprime loan market, and is spilling over into the rest of the market. Just look at the Fed's emergency 0.5% discount rate cut last week. Eclipse is going to have a tougher time obtaining financing in the future, especially if they miss any more "milestones"

4. the US dollar has fallen by 50% against a "basket" of foreign currencies. This negatively impacts the savings of purchasing components made overseas. The old deals are gone. New contracts will have to reflect the new reality of a weak dollar.

IMHO.

Gunner said...

On the issue of Homebuilt Liability, I received this answer from a well known company:

"All of our customers have purchased their aircraft with an LLC, which means the LLC can be listed as the builder. At that point, the only asset of the LLC is the aircraft. Our customers have found this to be a very satisfactory way to reduce the liability."

The idea here is that an LLC builds and is registered as the builder of the plane. At sale, the LLC itself is sold. By no means would this protect the original LLC Members 100%, but it is more than a bit of protection.

Anybody have anything more on this issue?
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

For those of you more interested in a broader view of VLF pilot training contact:

RBarnesAZ@att.net

Request a pdf copy of his Achieving VLJ Training Standardization.

While the document is written by Barnes, there appears to be an ad hoc group working with the SAE and have an open meeting scheduled in Los Angeles mid-September.

ExEclipser said...

ATM: There you go. If DayJet works, it would help little companies like SATS Air and Imagine Air and their little CR22's for those who want to do it cheaper and 'conventional' charters for those who need to carry more.

The big advantage to DayJet is running individuals around. When three - five need to go, a conventional charter would probably be preferred.

EclipseOwner387 said...

Hummer,

Did you buy an Eclipse?

hummer said...

EO387
Not yet. Want one with areo mods
and AvioNG. Also Part 135. Thanks
for the recent info & keep me advised.

ExEclipser said...

Shore is quiet in this here room today...

airtaximan said...

Too quiet for you?

"The big advantage to DayJet is running individuals around. When three - five need to go, a conventional charter would probably be preferred."

- three customers would be better off with another plane?
- Dayjet is for running individuals around?

Better tell Ed... he loses money with 1 passenger.

Also, the SR22 can do many of these single or even 2 passenger trips cost effectively... perhaps 1/2 or less the Dayjet price.

What am I missing?

ExEclipser said...

Well, I didn't really make myself clear. I meant individuals from a single company or group.

If Corp A wants to send one or two people somewhere, DayJet is the way to go. If they want to send four or more, then a traditional charter (or a larger air taxi aircraft) would be more appropriate. Three pax from a single group might could go either way.

DayJet will depend on two to three passengers - most likely 2 from Corp A, 1 from Corp B, or 1 ea from Corps A, B & C.

FlightCenter said...

Eclipse Certification and Registration Update

The Eclipse Concept Jet was registered in the FAA database as of 8/28/2007. The FAA shows the manufacturer as Swift Engineering, Inc. and the owner as Eclipse Aviation. The official model number for the ECJ is the Mark 400 and the serial number is SE-400-001. The registration number is N5184U.

According to the FAA database, Eclipse has delivered 31 Eclipse 500 aircraft and secured certificates of airworthiness for 36 E500 aircraft.

7 of those 31 aircraft have been registered to DayJet. Additionaly, Eclipse has submitted paperwork to transfer ownership of serial #33, 34, 35, 36, & 37 to DayJet.

Eclipse has also submitted paperwork to transfer ownership of serial #39 and serial #40 to Scott D. Gregory and A-Ron Resources on 8/17/2007 and 8/15/2007, respectively. Eclipse has said that these are the first aircraft equipped with the performance modifications.

Eclipse delivered 10 aircraft in July and has delivered 5 aircraft in August.
Eclipse secured certificates of airworthiness for 5 aircraft in July and none so far in August.

You can review the summary charts or the raw data which has been updated to reflect the FAA database as of this week, by clicking on the link below.

Eclipse 500 Delivery Data

bill e. goat said...

ATM,
I hope your taxi biz gets a boost from the "buzz" about Dayjet. (On the other hand, if Dayjet gets bad press after ridership experience, you might be have a bit less appreciation for them). Either way, it won't change the operating expenses of the current aircraft. Perhaps it will stimulate demand though, and that might push profits up for existing services.

Regarding Dayjet, despite Big Ed's closet of mathematicians, his credibility was strained by when he said "we've been doing proving runs with simulations", or something to that effect. Just like when Vern said they were doing "flight test using simulators" a few years ago.

When Big Ed said they are going "point to point", (THEIR points: DayPorts), that reduced the "complexity" required by about three orders (maybe four) of magnitude. I’ve heard conflicting stories on whether they are renting seats or airplanes (their web site says "per seat", but I thought someone posted you must reserve the entire airplane). Going whole airplane rather than seat-by-seat also reduces the “complexity” by probably an order of magnitude. So, Dayjet’s fancy "algorithms" are pretty much out the door, and they are offering services that require about 0.10% to 0.001% of the original scheduling computation. (Those schemes were pretty much "out there" anyway, I think- the "critical mass" of availability to make their original scheme work would have required hundreds of airplanes and probably thousands of pilots- maybe that’s the MIRAGE Vern was seeing).

Anyway, Dayjet will probably have some success with their more realistic (less disruptive, less "Verntastic") service. I hope existing charter services benefit from this as well.

FlightCenter said...

According to the FAA registration database Cessna has delivered 16 Mustang aircraft and secured certificates of airworthiness for 20 Mustangs.

ExEclipser said...

BEG:
I think that the 'simulated' training runs refer to simulated revenue service using actual aircraft on actual routes. I don't think the term simulator was being used to describe a training device.

The algorythm is based on flights between the 5 DayPorts. On flights between those initial cities, you pay for a seat - like an airline, except the time of your flight isn't nailed down until just prior to departure (you get a 2-hr window immediately). What happens from the time you request a flight until just before departure is that the system matches your needs with others. If you request 9:15 AM to GNV from BCT and someone else requests 8:45 to LAL, and someone else yet requests 9:30 from LAL to GNV, then they will schedule a 9:00 flight from BCT, arrive LAL 9:25, depart at 9:40, arrive GNV at 10:20.

You only 'charter' the whole aircraft if you have a need to go to a "DayStop" - any other airport in the area that can accomodate the EA500. Then, it doesn't matter if it is one of you or a team of three.

airtaximan said...

execlipser,

seems like the magic number for this air taxi market is 2 or 3... the e-500 is perfect.

sorry, I have to laugh.

again, 2 passengers makes these trips in a single prop for 1/2 the price and it will be charter and be on-demand, really without 4 hour windows, 1/2 hour waiting and the day-stop - the one that is imposed not the re-naming of an fbo.

By what you write, I guess the 3 pax trips between 5 airports with a stop and 4 hour window of inconvenience at normal jet charter prices for a Baron-size cabin is their market?

I get it now.

The $2000 per hour rent-a-jet charter price is very high... one should ask "why"?. The Dayjet rent-a-plane scheme should be at $1000 per hour, based on Ken's analysis of cost competitiveness... Do ya think Dayjet (who just got the last 5 e-clips planes whicle everyone else waits) knows something Ken doesn't? Pogo already said $2000 per hour for their eclipse charter, too. Hmmm...something's awry.

Sorry, I still don't get it.

PS. a friend emailed me and said that he received a Dayjet membership offer in the mail...at $99. It used to be $250. Signing up early has its privleges with Dayjet and e-clips, I guess!!!

Sign up early at Dayjet and pay 150% more than late-comers...

Sign up early at e-clips and risk $1 million paying for the lights, re-designs, ads, and of course a prototype con-jet....while you wait a few extra years for your plane, if you ever see it... while they try to remain in business.

Amazing.

Anyone know how Vern will try to claim victory regarding the solemn promise of delivering a plane a day in August? or was it producing? They have still not completed the 51 planes in work since a year ago... how is this going to look at NBAA?

airtaximan said...

then they will schedule a flight at 9AM...

is this scheduled service?

Gunner said...

AT asked:
"Anyone know how Vern will try to claim victory regarding the solemn promise of delivering a plane a day in August?"

Easy deal. Deliver one on the 31st, then announce that the line bifurcation is complete and, as promised, we're now delivering one plane a day.

Come September 1, they can quietly announce another "Planned production slowdown", explaining they need to carefully check parts being sent by the Vendor that recently fell under the bus. The Faithful will hail this as a stroke of QA genius, explaining that Eclipse is simply increasing the Value Proposition.

Meantime, the company will continue to bleed 2.3 MILLION bucks of hard earned Progress Payments each and every day.

What's not to like?
Gunner

mirage00 said...

Easy deal. Deliver one on the 31st, then announce that the line bifurcation is complete and, as promised, we're now delivering one plane a day.

We discussed this already... Trend... Trend... Trend... more planes are being delivered every day. Move on...

I remain amused

double 00

EclipseOwner387 said...

I know you guys won't believe me but I was told towards the end of July that the goal was to get the line positioned to produce 1/day during August. The fact they have upgraded the line during August seems to support that line of thinking. Does it really mean that they did what they hoped? I dunno. This info was told to me during the week of Osh from someone who spoke directly to Peg.

On another note, I was told my leaseback check was sent today. I should see it by Friday or Saturday. I will report back when I get it. I would see that as interesting/positive for a company that this blog is speculating to be out of cash. Not a million bucks but a 5 figure check.

Shane Price said...

I know the FAA are slow, but did I just read here that not even one E499.5 delivery is registered in August?

??!!?

Did we all mis understand Vern and his 'one aircraft per day in August' promise?

Oh, sorry, I remember. It's actually the second year of the E499.5. They recorded the delivery of ONE in 2006.

I geddit. Vern is building up to delivering TWO complete units (FIKI, Avio, etc etc) in 2007.

This will allow him (and his Faithful crew) to claim that, year on year, production has doubled.

Shane

Gunner said...

EO said:
"On another note, I was told my leaseback check was sent today. I should see it by Friday or Saturday. I will report back when I get it. I would see that as interesting/positive for a company that this blog is speculating to be out of cash."

EO-
Nobody "speculated" that the company is out of cash. Mike Press claimed it was the case. He specifically said that September would be a make-or-break month; that the $200 Million would only last "a couple of months" without new money coming in from Progress Payments. How much new money might come in on less than a dozen deliveries in August.

I believe the company is hemorrhaging Depositor Progress Payments at the rate of 3-4 every day, just as Mike indicated. But I'll make you an offer:

If your check isn't here on Monday, I wouldn't begin to argue that as definitive proof that they're broke on that day; if it DOES arrive by then, will you agree that it hardly proves they have enough for continued operations?

Gunner

Shane Price said...

Goat,

It's long past the time that oxygen would be any help to Alexa.

Shane

airtaximan said...

Moooo:

TREND:

"Eclipse delivered 10 aircraft in July and has delivered 5 aircraft in August."

..July
...
...
...
...
...August

nice TREND

EA50 said...

Gunner: "Nobody "speculated" that the company is out of cash. Mike Press claimed it was the case."

Mike Press didn't say that.

I'm sure if he were here to answer you directly, this is what he would say:

"Gunner is full of shit, and he ought to stop lying."

airtaximan said...

EA50,

what did Mike Press' report say regarding the recent infusion?

what did Mike's report say about money from new progress payments?

September?

Did Vern admit the recent financing was critical to avoid Bankruptcy?

EclipseOwner387 said...

Gunner,

This blog has been making negative financial speculations on Eclipse well before you jumping all over Mike's letter.

Also, I frankly didn't make any claim. Just said I saw it as interesting/positive to perhaps get paid from a company speculated to be out (or running out) of cash. But if speculated that vendors aren't getting paid, why would they pay me? If the check is not here by Monday and they give me a song and dance about it being lost, then I would assume they are locking down funds being the paranoid guy I am. I have seen that tactic from other companies having problems with cash flow. Basically you only pay those that can shut you down if you don't. The other unsecured creditors get slooooooooooow paid to death until the real news hits or the next pop of cash.

I basically think you have read too much into Mike's comments. I talk to Mike regularly. Is there a concern over Eclipse finances? In my opinion, yes. We have no way of knowing their true cash position and whether the plan will work and if they can raise cash if it doesn't. I have been pretty open about that. But I don't think Mike Press has an insiders view of their cash position. Funny how you want to make your interpretation of Mike's letter the word but other representations of Mike you tend to take with a grain of salt. Mike Press's financial comments has become your favorite talking points!

And I know, Eclipse just blew another fortune in the time I took to type this response...

EclipseOwner387 said...

ATMAN said,

"Did Vern admit the recent financing was critical to avoid Bankruptcy?"


Did Vern? Did he tell you that? Or did we hear it from a third party? Have you ever been misquoted? Misunderstood?

WhyTech said...

EO said:

"why would they pay me? "

Here's why: you are an independent "uncontrolled" source of info on whatever you might know about the company, like they didnt pay you the leaseback fee. They dont want you saying this to the world. E-clips doesnt want the Faithful to lose faith! Vendors are typically willing to keep their mouth shut in the hope of eventually getting paid, and rarely annonunce to the world that payments are delinquint. IMO, E-clips will bend over backward to be sure that you are paid, and right on time - unless they truly are out of cash. I doubt that they are literally out of cash - just that their obligations far exceed the cash on hand. Companies become very adept at "managing" payments when cash balances are low, and typically pay only the most critical accounts in full.

WT

airtaximan said...

EO, you are right about being misunderstood and misquoted...

I think this guy is the most misunderstood and misquoted character in aviation history. Is there an award for this?

You gotta admit, the description of the situation on the financing was fairly graphic, and in character... he basically was vindictive and threatening in his tone. I'm sure he could be misquoted, but why not just believe this and take IT at face value, like all the other BS?

That's the beauty of e-clips. They say whatever they want, and we hear and believe what we think it means. NOt alot has been clear.

So, are you saying he WAS misquoted? Are you saying the description of the financing eas inaccurate? Or are you just reminding me that I have no right asking a question, from someone who seems to know better - which is what I did...

Why so defensive? I thought you sold your last plane already? This makes 7 right? MAN, you ARE good!

Gunner said...

EO-
I tried to be more than fair to you. You made the claim that receiveing your lease payment would be some sort of indication. I offered that NOT receiving it would be NO indication.

I guess it doesn't pay to give Eclipse the benefit of the doubt. Shall I cease doing that?

As to Mike Press, he's career military; accustomed to being very precise with his words. He specifically stated that $210 million would only last them "a couple of months" and then pegged the end point as September.

I simply quantified that by increasing "a couple" by 50% to 3....again giving them the benefit of the doubt. If Mike wishes to retract or qualify, why hasn't he done so? I suspect because he'd have a hard time explaining, "I said September, but I meant February".


EA-50-
Do you kiss your Vern with that mouth?

Quote the applicable parts of Mike's last report to us and explain what they meant. I have.
Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

Whytech,

I would think Eclipse would wait until I threatened to make something public. Why pay me so fast if your scenario is accurate? Less than three weeks from termination of the lease.

But you must be correct! I am BMOB!! WooHoo! Feels good!!

Ken Meyer said...

Gunner, I think EA50 is right--you are FOS.

Let's just go over what Mike Press actually wrote, and see if you got it right:

Secondary Market Analysis: July/August Update

Oshkosh, a perennial Airshow where Eclipse Aviation normally updates their progress and makes significant announcements has just completed and Eclipse has not disappointed the faithful. They shocked the marketplace by flying and demonstrating one of the first single-engine VLJ concept jets. While this ECJ (Eclipse Concept Jet) stole the show, there were also many announcements and progress updates on the Eclipse 500. The news from Eclipse was very positive and significant progress has been made on many technical issues. The good news has caused more demand and interest in the Eclipse, here and in Europe. However, the production ramp up is still very slow and training delays in the airplane has caused some owners to lose faith and decide to sell. July witnessed the beginning of the Eclipse used market as about 5 used airplanes (already delivered airplanes) sold to new owners. 2007 delivery positions are still selling at a premium over factory price while 2008 positions are still selling at a discount. Fleet buyers and European buyers continue to add to the demand. However, the slow ramp up in production and the training delays have kept the supply of early positions on the market exceeding the demand.

Market Forces

Delivery and Production Issues

As of this writing (middle of August) delivery of 40 production aircraft will have taken place. The production ramp up is still slow and behind the schedule announced before Oshkosh. However, Eclipse is still projecting to make approximately 200 airplanes in 2007 with a new production schedule that shows 30 per month starting in September and 45 per month starting in November. The new schedule for 2007 is shown below next to the pre-Oshkosh schedule:

The exact production schedule while not published will look something like this:

Eclipse serial numbers; projected delivery by month 2007 (Estimated)

Pre-Oshkosh Schedule Post-Oshkosh Schedule
Jun 1-25 1-25
Jul 26-40 26-37
Aug 40-60 38-49
Sep 60-90 50-80
Oct 90-120 81-110
Nov 120-150 111-166
Dec 150-180 167-205

2008 deliveries at 45 per month through April 2008 and 60 per month through December 2008.

As mentioned before, the realism of this delivery ramp-up and production schedule is still suspect and whether Eclipse can meet it won’t be known until the end of September. So far they have not demonstrated that they can get into high-rate production. September will be the critical month to demonstrate high-rate production.

Technical and Training Issues

The technical issues are being resolved. The most serious issue last month was the pitot tubes issue. The FAA had issued an AD against the Eclipse 500 which restricted the airplane to VFR only until Eclipse could resolve freezing of condensation in the pitot tube plumbing. Eclipse certified a fix at the end of July and began replacing pitot tubes in all delivered aircraft. They should have all airplanes completed by the end of August. I own Eclipse serial number 004 and had the AD removed in early August and have been flying IFR up to FL410 and single-pilot for the past three weeks.

Also announced at Oshkosh, Eclipse received certification of the Aero Modification and Extended Range Tip Tanks. These have been installed on production aircraft beginning with serial number 39. All previous serial number aircraft will get the retrofits starting in September or October. AvioNG (Next Generation) development and testing is still progressing with current projections of production cut-in of serial number 134 in the November time frame. However, Eclipse is offering owners with serial numbers between 105-133 the opportunity to receive AvioNG hardware installation during production and wait for software upgrade when certification takes place in November. If these aircraft are produced prior to AvioNG certification, they will be placed into storage until certification takes place. It is still not known how many of these owners took this offer from Eclipse. All airplanes produced before AvioNG production cut-in will be sent back to the factory or service center for retrofit starting in December. The retrofit is a 10 day job. Flight Into Known Icing (FIKI) testing and certification is still planned for late 2007.

Training of Eclipse owner/pilots and professional pilots is still behind schedule. Eclipse has trained more instructors and delays in training are becoming shorter. However, there is still about a month delay between delivery and training date. Eclipse has stated that they plan to be back on schedule by October. The course is still being given in the owner’s airplane. Starting in September the first class to use the FTD simulator will start at Double Eagle airport in Albuquerque. The second simulator (full-motion) will be available in October. Use of these simulators and the move to Double Eagle should start closing the gap in training. Also, many more mentor pilots are now trained, so some owners are taking delivery and hiring a mentor pilots to provide pre-factory training while they wait for their class date.


CPI, Financial and Europe

After a horrendous first 5 months of 2007, the CPI has been gradually coming down the last two months. During the first seven months of 2007, the CPI-U rose at a 4.5 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 2.5 percent for all of 2006. The index for energy, which rose 2.9 percent in 2006, advanced at a 21.3 percent SAAR in the first seven months of 2007 despite registering declines in each of the last two months. Hopefully CPI will continue to moderate over the rest of this year.
Eclipse seems to have dodged a bullet financially when they secured over $200 million in additional equity funding in July. However, this will only last them a couple of months if Eclipse does not get into rate production. Again, September looks to be the critical month for Eclipse. This additional funding will most likely smooth the cash flow issues for a couple of months, but until Eclipse can get into rate production (September) they will not be cash-flow neutral. Once they get into rate production (30 per month), then they likely will be good on cash flow and will not need to go to the credit markets again. With a production rate of 30 per month, revenue will equate to over $50 million per month as Eclipse will be able to collect on delivered aircraft and call for 60% deposits on aircraft to be delivered six-months out (at a rate of 60 per month production rate).

The European market is still quite strong. At Oshkosh, Eclipse projects EASA full certification (JAR 23) in 4th quarter 2007 and commercial certification (JAR-OPS 1) in 1st quarter 2008. Flight-into-Known Icing is still projected to get certification in 4th quarter of 2007.

Market Prices

Prices for Eclipse 500 have rebounded and remain quite strong for delivered airplanes and near delivered airplanes. Last month witnessed the first airplane resold after the owner took delivery. Then about 5 or 6 other delivered airplanes also were resold. The average sale price for these delivered airplanes was between $1,750,000 and $1,850,000. Eclipse also auctioned a delivered airplane (S/N #38) on Ebay which eventually sold for $1,833,000. Eclipse at Oshkosh also announced a $75,000 price increase starting in September. This raises the base of the Eclipse to $1,595,000 in 2006 dollars or about $1,650,000 in today’s dollars.

Prices for pre-delivered airplanes and 2008 positions are going for quite a bit less and selling at discount to factory price.

(Reprint from April Newsletter

Again, as I quote these sale prices, they are the list price (usually in 2000 dollars) plus CPI through projected date of delivery plus the seller’s equity. As this pricing comparison is the most confusing part of the secondary market, I will again try to simplify it with a sample comparison of a recent secondary market sale to a factory sale.

Factory Price Secondary Market Price

List: $1,595,000 (June 2006 dollars) List : $1,040,000 (June 2000 dollars)
CPI: $ 105,000 (Mar 2009 delivery) CPI: $ 220,000 (April 2008 delivery)
Seller's Equity: $ 280,000
______________________________________________________________________
Total $1,700,000 (base price) Total: $1,540,000 (base price)

In above example, the buyer purchased the April 2008 Eclipse at a $160,000 discount below factory price and also will receive the aircraft one year earlier than the factory position.)

There is still a two tier pricing structure for Eclipse positions. Buyers are willing to pay premium prices for real early positions (delivered ASAP). These are selling for between $1.75M and $1.85M with options. The second tier prices are the 2008 positions (serial numbers 200 and up) and they are still selling at a discount of around $1.45M before options. Of course the farther one goes out in time the cheaper the price.

There is still a large supply of positions for sale on the secondary market, which keeps the prices in check, but demand still does seem to be increasing.

Conclusions and Forecast

Eclipse has worked through most of their technical issues and are delivering airplanes at low rate. They are projecting to start high rate production (one-per-day) beginning in September. This will be a critical month for Eclipse as their business model depends on high rate production.

The forecast for the secondary market is still bullish. The prices and demand for early delivered airplanes is quite high and prices are going up as demand increases. The airplane is a joy to fly as I have been flying it around the country. Everywhere I stop, people gather to look and ask questions about its price and economy. Most are pleased with what they see. Demand should increase as this jet gets better known to the public.

Until next month--regards,

Mike


The part relevant to your misquote is "Eclipse seems to have dodged a bullet financially when they secured over $200 million in additional equity funding in July. However, this will only last them a couple of months if Eclipse does not get into rate production...This additional funding will most likely smooth the cash flow issues for a couple of months, but until Eclipse can get into rate production (September) they will not be cash-flow neutral."

That is a far cry from saying that the company would go bankrupt shortly. I think EA50 is right. You are being substantially inaccurate, as you have been many times in the past.

And we all know why. You're a spurned lover willing to say anything nasty about the one who rejected you.

Ken

airtaximan said...

g:

thanks, this made me really laugh...

"Do you kiss your Vern with that mouth?"

Funniest thing posted here in a long time.

PS. I am wondering if EA-50- actually IS Mike Press...

I hope so. The we can get to the bottom of all this. BTW, no one needed Mike PRess to have a view into the finances...its just the die-hards that do not wish to see.

40 planes, made when 1000++ were estimated, by 1400 employees over more than a year... plus the con-jet, travel to europe, sims, certification and development work on NG, aerofixes, leaseback payments etc...

Makes you wonder how they will ever pay for the mods and fixes of the delivered planes?

Makes you ask how they can ever get back on top of the burnt progress money...

yadayayada

But I believe we are not even close to the end of Vern's ability to raise money.... so the music will play on...

WhyTech said...

EO said:

"Why pay me so fast "

Think about it - with speculation rampant about the co. being on the edge of bankruptcy, do you think they want to risk having the fact that they didnt pay you circulating in the 500 Club, etc? After all, as you say, you are BMOB!

Timely payment to you is an act of bravado and "proof" that everything is AOK.

WT

WhyTech said...

Ken said:

"You're a spurned lover "

Hey Ken, get a grip!

WT

airtaximan said...

Ken: didn't Vern say they were almost bankrupt during the summer when the financing was falling apart?

I think its safe to say (no matter how much you personally may not like this) that Vern and Mike both describe a situation of the "company dodging a bullet" and needing more cash quick. Heck, Vern is quoted as admitting to paying off old debts and immediately burning all by around $50mil of the infusion at the beginning of the summer.

September indeed is referenced, and appears logical as a time when they are going to be "dodging or taking a bullet".

You will probably have your own, self-serving opinion about what ws meant by the interview and Press, but there's at least a 50% chance that Gunner is spot on, and you are just trying to get something for your deposit/progress payment...

I don't think you can say he's FOS... but you are entitled to see or not see the writing...

mouse said...

TurboProp Driver,

Thanks for supporting my claims from last year... The engine has no flat-rating, and so it is burning itself up in normal operations.

Guys like Ken with no experience in such matters do not want to listen, or learn so they will have to learn the lessons that so many have learned the hard way before them.

This is the most disheartning aspect of the airplane, and yet, try as we do, they refuse to learn, acknowlege or apprciate the lessons and advice...

Thank you for your words, and perhaps it will help jar some of these guys before they lose even more..

airtaximan said...

WT...

"Timely payment to you is an act of bravado and "proof" that everything is AOK."

Worked like a charm, too! It took 2 seconds for it to find its way here, for all to read.

GOTTA HAND IT TO EO, something tells me he knows his chances of actually receiving the payment from E-clips has gone up dramatically since his post!!

EclipseOwner387 said...

Gunner,

You were basically taking my info and saying it is a non-event with your reply. I don't see it that way. It is a data point to use your terms and should not be brushed aside. That's my point. Nothing personal but this is direct interaction with Eclipse. Not hypothetical. Not conjecture. Real info. And I realize it is not Earth shattering either. If I don't get paid I will report back.

Gunner said...

Ken said:
"That is a far cry from saying that the company would go bankrupt shortly."

Show me where I ever said they'd go "bankrupt shortly", Brother Ken. Now who's lying?

I've quoted Mike accurately and repeatedly. They have an enormous cash flow problem, come September, unless a few hundred more Depositors fall on their swords. Mike said it in no uncertain terms; I agree with it. Suggest you go out and try to get those Depositors to belly up (or down)....oops, that's what you're doing right now, isn't it? ;-)

Ken said:
"And we all know why. You're a spurned lover willing to say anything nasty about the one who rejected you."

In psychological circles, Brother, that would be called a Freudian Slip; a "projection", if you will. The last thing that comes to mind for me when I think of Eclipse and Vern is a "lover" scenario. YMMV, and obviously does. I'm sorry for that and suggest you try to hide it from public view. Even I'm embarrassed for you after that statement.

Overlooking that bit of dangerous faux pas on your part, it gets almost hilarious.

This society honors, above all things, independent analysis. We demand an independent prosecutor in political circles; we value independent third parties in disputes. We expect financial advisers, lawyers, judges, priests, rabbis, congress-critters and mechanics to have no vested interest in their opinions.

Yet you have the chutzpah to insist that someone with ZERO to gain or lose over the Eclipse fate is somehow "biased" in comparison to your own self; who frantically NEEDS this company to produce your aircraft so badly in order not to LOSE over half a million bucks. How else might you run on home gushing, "Honey, forget the salvage planes. Just look how much money I saved on on the Eclipse".

And I'M biased??????

If it weren't for the rather disturbing "lover" context that you add to the relationship it would actually be funny...almost.
Gunner

mouse said...

Hummer,

The engine change would be very substancial. The mounts would again have to change or heavy transition adapters installed, but that would most likely put the engines to far outboard.

The nacelle is completley too small, so back to the drawing board.

The inlet and tailpipe have to change, again, again, again.

The fuel burn would go up so more fuel, perhaps bigger plumbing, routing changes, accessories all change, FADEC software and physical box changes...

The plane gets heavier from the sturcture, fuel... more drag from the larger fuel tip tanks, landing gear is already at capacity for gross weight (landing loads), the brakes are beyond maxed out for normal operations...

Want more???

airtaximan said...

question:

if you add up the money raised in the last year or so alone, isn't it a giant number...

- post cert bridge to IPO = ($200M?)

- 200 or so(?) progress payments at $900k ea = ($180M?)

- $240 recent bullet-dodge

Is this $620 million (gone) in the last year or so?

BTW, if anyone has a better memory than me, please correct this.... I'm asking, not telling here.

airtaximan said...

Eo,

you are the best!

"If I don't get paid I will report back."


"AHHH Hello, VErn, Ken here...he says he better find his check next week, or the whole world's gonna know...."

Pure GENIUS.

EclipseOwner387 said...

ATMAN,

I purposefully did not make a big deal about the lease back on this blog until I was told today that check was sent. I did not want to influence the outcome of a small check. I am trying to determine if I should buy another aircraft. If I pressured the check then I reduce its value as info to me. Does that make sense? I have only made one small comment about me being a vendor in response to Whytech's sarcastic attack about me being BMOB even though I have only owned an Eclipse for a few minutes. (Not sure why the naysayers like to exaggerate so much.)

EclipseOwner387 said...

Mouse,

Didn't I already answer Hummer's question? I did it in a couple sentences though!

Good stuff. Thanks!

EO

WhyTech said...

EO said:

"Whytech's sarcastic attack about me being BMOB even though I have only owned an Eclipse for a few minutes"

Humor, not sarcasm - apparently you didnt see it that way. BMOB is a term of respect and awe!

WT

airtaximan said...

Eo,
as I have said before, you are top dog on this blog. No kidding.

I was just joshin buddy, relax.

But, yup, I could see how receving a check from them for a few thousand bucks at this (dire) time would indicate their solvency!

Man, I'm totally kidding. Relax.

Are you really buying another? Smart - pre-NBAA hype. WIthin a week of NBAA the reality will come out and you will have bought low, and sold high... like Oshkosh...

EO is the KING.

airtaximan said...

my answer:

re-engine the e-500 with the 615= cessna mustang.

move along....

mouse said...

While I hope DayJet succeeds, and it will drive up interest to the traditional charter operators as new people come into the fold, the FAA has recently rendered a ruling that may kill DayJet.

If DayJet advertises it has capacity on a flight that someone else has booked, and calls out a departure time or window, the FAA now rules this a "SCHEDULED" departure and they will pull their certificate and violate them for operating as a scheduled air carrier...

Never forget the FAA's motto... They're not happy until you're not happy!

Even the traditional charter companies are being hurt by this, and it will be getting ugly.

Don't look for a rule change, this is being handled as a handbook change and enforcement action to be pursued agressively.

Gunner said...

EO-
Your check is pocket change, and you know it. The damage you can do by publicly complaining is enormous.

That was my point. Getting or not getting your particular check means nothing. Just ask Alexa. She clearly stated that, despite all the high fives for investment raises in '07, Eclipse had, in July.....get this....

ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTY FIVE MILLION DOLLARS IN IMMEDIATELY DUE BILLS!!!

C'mon. How many stop signs does a rational man need to ignore to get to the conclusion that this company is anywhere near off life support?
Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

ATMAN,

Not defensive. My point is Vern may or may not have said that. I would say he stuck his foot in his mouth if he did. Perhaps he said something close to that but with less distress than what was printed... I don't know. Was the funding important? Hell yes! I will once again repeat that I think financing is Eclipse's number one concern. The rest of their issues (other than AVIO NG) are bankable and just a matter of time. I think they will achieve AVIO NG but that is the biggest technical issue from my point of view.

EclipseOwner387 said...

Gunner,

I don't know a female named Alexa on this blog.

Are you referring to the man named Alex with the last initial A that participates on the blog?

airsafetyman said...

Well, the FAA Administrator is off to greener pastures and now its time for the FAA's Old Guard to rub DayJet's (Vern's) nose in it? Paybacks are hell.

mouse said...

EO,

You did... I respond as I read each comment. My time stamp is the give away...

Sorry... I was just trying to explain it for those who might not completely understand the issue(s).

mirage00 said...

Any technical issues we should discuss? Please let’s not forget why this blog was started. The little jet that couldn’t, according to Stan. Let's make him proud and turn the discussions back to the wing size, weight, thrust, fuel burn, certification, production certificate...

This money stuff sure is boring and proves once again that this blogs days are numbers... carry on..

I remain amused

double 00

EclipseOwner387 said...

WT,

You are good! Smooth. Kick a guy and make him feel good about it.

Just kidding! I want to fly in your Pilatus someday so I need to be nice. When I visit my office in Burlington Ma I usually fly into Hanscom. IIRC, is that where you call home base? I am overdue on making a visit.

Gunner said...

EO asked:
"Are you referring to the man named Alex with the last initial A that participates on the blog?"

I take people at face value. I assume when someone blogs in as "alexa" vs "alex a", there's a reason for it. I don't know a single man named "Gabe Anderson" who would wish to be known as "gabriela".

But that's neither here nor there. Alexa is obviously who she is. ;-)
Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

-Info-

Mike Press reports 160 hours on his airplane and no issues. Flying well. Says he gets book speeds.

More news at 11.

EclipseOwner387 said...

Alex A,

change your blog name.

BMOB has spoken.

;-)

Gunner said...

Too late.

Back to the VunderJet subject at hand.
Gunner

Niner Zulu said...

Some excerpts from last weeks Business Week. More evidence that the VLJ boom may go bust:

Subprime Profiteers Go Belly Up

Nearly overnight, mortgage company execs saw their personal wealth evaporate. Some will find it hard to adapt to a less lavish lifestyle.

Even those who don't end up with their companies in bankruptcy will be squeezed. Sure, some still have millions, but wealth is relative. When you have a sky-high net worth, it seems everything is affordable. Maybe you've bought your own jet or have partial ownership of one through a company like NetJets. Perhaps you've purchased a summer home in the Hamptons. But with the money gone, Sontag says, "What brought joy now brings angst."

...They need to adjust to their new reality. That means cutting back on expenses, including the jet and the vacation home, and unwinding any debt they may have. In a word: triage.

Gunner said...

"In a word: triage."

A word generally relegated to Emergency Rooms and Disaster Centers.

How truly apt.
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

Everbody seems to like to quote Mike Press, so here's what he's saying about performance in the mid-30's:

"I am still getting book numbers at FL350.

I have checked it a couple of times. The temps have been running +10 to + 15 ISA this summer. Winds are usually around 20kts either headwind or tail wind.

I think overall I am averaging around 325-335TAS at those temps which when I check is about right at book for HSC or MCT. PPH is 400pph...

I have over 160 hours in the airplane now. It’s still holding up well."


He's getting 330 KTAS at FL350 at ISA +10 to ISA + 15. And he's doing it on just 400 pph--that's right at book for a non-aeromod Eclipse at FL350 at ISA + 10. At ISA + 15, he's beating book numbers. And the aeromod-equipped airplanes pick up 20 knots under the same conditions.

When there are fifty airplanes like Mike's flying at once, gunner will be there, standing with a quizzical look on his face, saying "I don't understand; I hoped they would fold."

But they're not folding, Rich. They're not folding because when you cut to the heart of the matter, the plane is performing well and doing it very inexpensively. And that means you're just a spurned lover spewing venomous hate.

Ken

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AlexA said...

EO,

Thanks for the advice but you need to understand that Gunner is an angry little man with checkered past and first hand knowledge of lack of ethics. With the anonymity of the internet and cute blogging names its hard to tell but the information seem to point to a character Investigated by an Ethics Commissions, brought up to the Florida Elections Commission, acting as a BOD of a company that was sued for failing to pay ATT, the famous DKHead lawsuit and such much more. Eo, this is usually the part where the angry little man starts talking about libel.

The funniest part of the whole story is this character actually gave a deposit for the E500. Yep he was a believer, one of the faithful ones, a brother, a kool aid drinker but now he found the light and religion. Eo, please be forewarned this guy will tap your shoes under the bathroom stall and the rest will be history.

Eo you also need to take responsibility for your actions and successes in the VLJ marketplace. You need to understand that the angry little man (I think goes by the name of Cinderella) feels he left the royal ball late without the ability to make a handsome profit on a sale of VLJ positions. Our subject decided to run out and purchase not one or two but three of the hottest thing since slice bread (D-Jet). With the D-Jet program having its own problems (small order book, design problems, power plant problems, program delays, adjustable pricing, etc) you can actually buy positions at cost (no handsome profit to be had). By the way this problem will probably also afflict Cirrus and Eclipse with the ECJ (the speculators).

Best to ignore Cinderella and let her stew in her misery;)

redtail said...

Gunner said... Alexa is obviously who she is. ;-)

It's obvious to all why Gunner is known as to as Dick H Lucibella.

WhyTech said...

EO said:

"I want to fly in your Pilatus someday "

Once you have done this, you wont WANT to own an E-clips for more than a few minutes!

WT

ExEclipser said...

Can someone point to where Vern said 30 per day by the end of August?

According to Mike Press (whom we are now tasked to believe as an equal authority to Vern himself), before Oshkosh, the August delivery schedule was 20 units. This was then backed down to 11 units after Oshkosh, but the rate in September didn't change from 30 units before or after the show.

ExEclipser said...

By the way, I don't necessarily doubt that Vern said 1 a day by the end of August, but everyone needs to keep in mind that Peg runs engineering and operations. Vern runs money and customer care.

airtaximan said...

EO,

"I will once again repeat that I think financing is Eclipse's number one concern. The rest of their issues (other than AVIO NG) are bankable and just a matter of time."

- your opinion on rate production as it relates to price?
- your opinion on the order book?

Bankable? Um, I'd have to agree but only becasue of Vern's track record raising buckets and buckets of money.

airtaximan said...

execlipser,

I thought it was Peg who said 1 per day...

We need to remember one thing... a VERY LONG time AGO, depositors were promised deliveries that equated to at least one per day... more like 2 per day.

There is nothng special about this revised promise, except its made in the context of failing miserably on the initial promise - the one relied upon by the folks who ponied up their progress payments.

The whole question of who said how many by when, is moot at this point- the prmises (Designed to suck more money out of "position-holders" is BS. The recent concentration on the statements made last month or the month before need to be kept in context.

ITS A HUGE REVISION DOWNWARDS, and it cost folks a lot of money.

BTW, if Vern says something or Peg says something or Broom (who says nothing these days...amazing, really) it is e-clips speaking. Looking to Peg responsibility on Peg is silly. Its all Vern. LAstly, asny statements regarding production rates are directly designed to extract progress payments...nothing more, excpt perhaps create some false optimism in the supply chain again.

mirage00 said...

We need to remember one thing... a VERY LONG time AGO, depositors were promised deliveries that equated to at least one per day... more like 2 per day.

A very long time ago, it was believed this airplane would never get "Certified". A very long time ago it was believed that Eclipse would never receive a "PC". Things have changed. The production schedule changed. Eventually the plane was certified. Eventually they received the PC and eventually they will be pumping out 2 a day. Move on.

Back to Stans talking points...
Wing size, weight, thrust, fuel burn, rivets, etc...

I remain amused

double 00

ExEclipser said...

Anyone know if Linear Air has a part 121 certificate? They offer "Shared Charter" schedules that have a published departure and arrival time.

Stan Blankenship said...

Interesting article as pointed out by a reader:

http://www.aspendailynews.com/article_21467

Niner Zulu said...

M00, forget about that lift, weight, thrust and drag stuff.

What really makes a plane fly is MONEY. Lots and lots of it!

;-)

WhyTech said...

Quote from article linked by Stan:

"You'll be seeing a lot of these with the A-list crowd," McConnell predicted"

I dont think so. If you are flying an E-clips, you are not A-list by definition. The folks who care about such things in Aspen are flying Gulfstreams and Falcons.

WT

mirage00 said...

Whytech...

Didn't know you owned a PC12. Believe it or not, it's my favorite airplane. The Eclipse is a close second. :)

I remain amused

double 00

Bonanza Pilot said...

man...we really need some news from Eclipse. The personal attacks are getting ugly - and are a result of a complete lack of info as to what is happening at Eclipse. Attack or defend the plane...not the people who have an opinion...what is the goal of attacking the person? The only reason for the personal attack is to silence those who either support or attack Eclipse - and if everyone is silent then there is no blog.

Mirage...I know you want to talk about the wing - but the reason everyone talks about finances is because that is what doesn't work. The business model of selling every unit at a loss and making it up in the volume has been tried many times....and still fails every time. Price and volume are the Eclipse problem...for a billion bucks almost any idiot could certify a small twin jet - the fact that it still has so many I.O.U.'s just shows we are dealing with a special kind of idiot - but no matter the final product you can't have the volume without the low price...and you can't have the low price without some new market you invent that really succeeds and increases demand beyond anything we have ever witnessed.

EclipseOwner387 said...

WT,

Carbon Footprint my friend. Carbon Footprint! The Prius of the sky will attract some attention! ;-)

I bet Larry David would buy one, so don't curb your enthusiasm.

EclipseOwner387 said...

BP said,

Paraphrased "Plane Works!"

Progress Mirage!

flightguy said...

EO,

Carbon Footprint my friend. Carbon Footprint!

The wealthy don't care about lowering their standards for carbon footprint. They buy trees for carbon offsets.

jetaburner said...

Stan and WT-

Read the article in the Aspen Daily News yersterday. Most local pilots and airport personnel think the E-Clips is a joke because of its size and lack of performance (relative to the other Jets in Aspen). The E-Clips has been to Aspen several times including a dinner with Vern in the hangar at the aiport. As my insurance broker said: "The Eclipse is for the guy who can't afford a real jet but desperately wants one."

jetaburner said...

bonaza pilot-

At the end of the day E-clips has designed a VLJ that will reliably go 800nm (1000nm in good wx in the midwest) and carry 3 people with bags. Not much different than the Meridian (I owned one for 4 years). The problem is that their original model forecasted a huge demand for a small jet that cost $1m. E-Clips needed huge production volumes in order to produce the bird for $1M. Now the plane is $1.65M to $1.8M (more than the original price of the Meridian). Granted the plane as 2 engines and flies faster and higher than the Meridian but it also costs more to operate and purchase. Can E-clips still sell 1000s of these planes at $1.8M per year? I don't see the demand. The also have to work through their order book which is a huge liability for them. So... can they survive? Who knows? If they do, all you will have is a little jet that won't revolutionize anything and is essentialy a twin turbofan version of the Meridian which you could have bought 7 years ago.

Black Tulip said...

With many scurrilous rumors circulating on the blog, it is important to discount new ones before they gain traction. I believe I can speak with authority when I say that Eclipse Aviation is not building a new plant in Idaho. Likewise, any suggestion that Senator Larry Craig was seen in the men’s room of the Albuquerque International Airport with Vern Raeburn is utterly false and completely unfounded.

Black Tulip

Stan Blankenship said...

Double Zero (as in nothing of substance),

The blog has become Eclipse Information Central, it is no longer limited to technical information.

Here is more for your morning read:

http://kob.com/article/stories/S181146.shtml?cat=500

mirage00 said...

Double Zero (as in nothing of substance),

Now now Stan, lets keep the personal attacks to a minimum. After all this is your blog.

I was just trying to revisit some of your old talking points that seem to have silenced you over the past few months.

I remain amused

double 00

planet-ex said...

Light reading for those who are interested.

VERY LIGHT JETS
Several Factors Could Influence Their Effect on the National Airspace System

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d071001.pdf

Pay particular attention to the time frames listed and projected deliveries.

WhyTech said...

Double Zero (as in nothing of substance) said:

"Believe it or not, it's (PC-12)my favorite airplane."

There may actually be some substance there after all! There are many good reasons why its your favorite. This is a rather telling admission by a senior member of the Faithful. There is hope for you, Moo! ;-)

WT

Black Tulip said...

With false rumors out of the way, let’s get back to technical discussion.

Mouse said,

”The engine has no flat-rating, and so it is burning itself up in normal operations.”

If true this is a serious issue. Not so much about the engine being consumed – I don’t think Eclipse or Pratt would allow that. If it runs hot, they just sell more parts at hot section and provide more frequent overhauls.

But how about high and hot performance for the aircraft? I’ve heard second hand that the little ship has trouble climbing above the mid-thirties. If so this would have dire implications for the range of the aircraft.

The Faithful marvel over the ‘paper’ long range as they contemplate viewing the color of the sky at FL410. Does the engine have sufficient bleed air reserve to not only pressurize the cabin but to also provide anti-ice as required? Who here has first hand experience?

Changing subjects completely, I was thinking about the ‘investors’ in Eclipse Aviation. Given the amount of money raised, there must be dozens of ‘investors’ receiving quarterly financial information on the company. Presumably the early ‘investors’ are heavily diluted by the subsequent cram-down financing.

While we have ex-employees on the blog, we haven’t heard from folks who could clear up a great deal of speculation about the burn rate and balance sheet of Eclipse. I would guess there are two reasons for this – personal adherence to confidentiality agreements and a hope and a prayer that these Eclipse shares might be worth something if I keep my mouth shut.

Black Tulip

WhyTech said...

BT said:

"I would guess there are two reasons for this "

A third possible reason: if they knew about the blog, they wouldnt be investors, so they may not have found us yet.

WT

airtaximan said...

Mouse,

Is there something new with Conti's opinion? Has it become gospel? I had not heard.

"If DayJet advertises it has capacity on a flight that someone else has booked, and calls out a departure time or window, the FAA now rules this a "SCHEDULED" departure and they will pull their certificate and violate them for operating as a scheduled air carrier..."

I do not think they are doing this. I think they are doing some other things... but they are not advertising availability on a plane that has been scheduled by someone else. They are certainly not advertising this.

Also, under part135, you can make some scheduled point to point flights, and advertise them.

These guys are pretty smart, and I'm not sure exactly how, but I would not doubt that they are using their magical black box (computer) to make-believe there's "no schedule" ad they are not doing anything contrary to the regs regarding this. Also, they won't fly empty.. so there is no real schedule.

The FAA can change along with the times, right? Is there some safety issue... I doubt it.

Interesting times.

airtaximan said...

BT,
"anti-ice"

FIKI cert delayed...and delayed......


hmmm............

Stan Blankenship said...

Double Zero (as in nothing of substance),

Want to read some more from my morning mail? You know, technical stuff.

But of course don't believe any little bit of it because it could not possibly be true!

"I've been reading some of the blogs, a lot of them are correct. I waiting to see Dayjet aircraft with 3 or 4 hundred landings. If they get operating that should happen quickly. I don't think the Gainesville repair facility will be able to keep up. These planes are really hard to work on and the wiring is a mess. They will all be hanger queens sooner than later.

They all leak so bad new that after a few years I don't think you will be able to keep them pressurized.

I saw a claim that the flaps won't lower in an asymetrical condition. They will lower in a pretzel condition when one of the actuators fail, I had to change them. I was really suprised at the power the electric actuators have, almost hydraulic.

Pull up the floorboards and fold back the insulation to find all the uncorrected manufacturing errors highlighted in sharpie pen, don't use a hi-lock guage or any type of measurement device on any rivet in this aircraft. Take the "double dare" pull a couple of hi-locks at random, then measure the "close tolerance hole"

Management is in such a rush to produce---

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mirage00 said...

Double Zero (as in nothing of substance),

Now now Stan, lets keep the personal attacks to a minimum. After all this is your blog.

Now back to your funny emails...

Pull up the floorboards and fold back the insulation to find all the uncorrected manufacturing errors highlighted in sharpie pen

Shouldn't someone notify the FAA????

So what you claim we have here is a plane that leaks and has all sorts of uncorrected manufacturing errors? But isn't this the reason a "PC" is required for manufacturing?

Oh wait, I remember now, the FAA was in Vern’s back pocket. "Conspiracy Theory" again.

I remain amused

double 00

WhyTech said...

Tradeoffs:

In the interest of generating some activity, any activity:


Machines that fly all involve dozens or hundreds of compromises. None is perfect and each has some stengths and weeknesses - one hopes that these tradeoffs are in a reasonable balance.

I have been an enthusiatic advocate of the PC-12 on this blog and in many other places. But, like all other airplanes, it involves tradeoffs. However, when ones examines reasonable alternatives, the PC-12 comes off very well. A well optioned PC-12 goes for around $3.5 million. I have looked at acft which are priced as much as a $1 million more and $1 million less, and there isnt much in this range to choose from. A CJ1+ well optioned goes at about $4.8mm, and a King Air B200 is priced around $5.3mm. What else is there in the $3.5mm-$5mm range (pressurized turbine personal acft from an established manufactuter)? At down a million from $3.5mm, only two come to mind: The TBM 850, and the King Air C90GTi. The TBM 850 is a nice airplane, but trades off quite a bit in the interest of speed. The C90GTi is, I believe, a real sleeper, and an amazing value. Unnoticed by many, this acft has had a real makeover in the last 24 months: -135 engines for 270KT cruise, and ProLine 21 avionics suite as standard, all at a list of about $3.1mm, and with Hawkers/Beechcraft's willingness to negotiate price, real world price is probably arount $2.8mm. This is a screaming buy for a large cabin turbine twin with state of the art "corporate" class avionics.

Would I rather be flying a CJ3 (at about $8mm) than a PC-12 - absolutely! And, I'd rather be flying a G150 (at around $15mm)than a CJ3. But, at its price point, the PC-12 is hard to beat, and has just the right balance of tradeoffs, IMHO.

WT

AlexA said...

Whytech,

Thank you for making such a persuasive case for Eclipse on your last posting.

WhyTech said...

alexa said:

"Thank you for making such a persuasive case for Eclipse on your last posting. "

Actually, the case was against, not for E-clips. The EA5xx trades off so much in the interest of cheap, it isnt in the same league!

WT

mirage00 said...

Actually, the case was against, not for E-clips. The EA5xx trades off so much in the interest of cheap, it isnt in the same league!

What are the tradeoffs at $1.6 million?

Speed?
Range?
Load?

I remain amused

double 00

Stan Blankenship said...

The "B" mod TCDS is up on the www.faa.gov site.

Don't have time to put up a link, but click on Licenses & Certificates, then the A/C TCDS's.

ExEclipser said...

9Z: I believe that NACG made a flight (at least the airplane and call sign made a flight) from Chicago Exec to somewhere in Nevada, I think and back.

Stan, I don't believe the email. Sorry, but it sounds too off-the-wall, vague.

FYI, the DayJet fleet has a total cumulative cycle count (per flightaware counting both DJSxxx and NxxxDJ flights) of right at 400 - that's an average of 33 per aircraft since N126DJ rolled off the line back early this year. The highest count was N109DJ with 66 total cycles.

Keep in mind, that this doesn't include any flights that were not tracked by FlightAware.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
WhyTech said...

9Z said:

"Wednesday night's incident at Eclipse "

This will be the stated reason why Aug (or Sep) production goals were not met.

WT

WhyTech said...

Moo said:

"What are the tradeoffs at $1.6 million?"

If the airplane is completed, if it meets published specs, if it is safe and reliable, if E-clips is around to support it, etc, etc, etc, etc, then it will definitely be a contender at its price point. Until then, its a waste of time to consider one. Larger cabin airplanes are popular with pilots and passengers, and this is just one tradeoff that is out of balance in the E-clips design.

Based on all the discussion here, it seems that a well optioned E-clips is closer to $1.9mm or more by the time one can actually get one.

WT

ExEclipser said...

"Treated and Released"

Turns out the claims of PhostrEx are true about being mildly corrosive and generally non-toxic.

Glad everyone on the floor was OK and released.

ExEclipser said...

WT: A well optioned out EA500 at 1.9 is still a great savings over Mustang. A stock EA500 is very flyable and a very good value (and probably gets better book performance due to the weight to boot). A stock can be had in Q3 '09 for $1.662M including CPI.

LX for $1.7M.

Nice plane! And the best part is that it *should* have all of the parts bolted on at the time of delivery.

ExEclipser said...

Let's clarify one more thing. You're 1.9M "Well Optioned" is not just well optioned, but TOTALLY optioned with every check box checked.

WhyTech said...

exe said:

"with every check box checked."

No, only those boxes that correspond to the options in my PC-12 - its most of them, but not all. E-clips says $1.864mm.

WT

WhyTech said...

exe said:

"LX for $1.7M."

You guys just dont get it. If I want cheap, I'll fly the airlines. There is so much more to acft ownership than can be put into $. Have you no soul?

WT

ExEclipser said...

WT - You just don't get it, do you? If you've been flying a 1.2 Mil + Malibu for 10 years because you couldn't affort a $4 Mil Jet, then suddenly $1.66 to get into a Jet sounds like an upgrade to me.

I can't afford a used 150 (Cessna, not Gulfstream). It's not cheap. It's value.

WhyTech said...

exe said:

"then suddenly $1.66 to get into a Jet sounds like an upgrade to me."

It is in that case. But remember, some folks can easily afford a BBJ. The E-clips, if finished etc, will be a great value in the $1.0mm - $2.0mm category, but its not going to kill the market for airplanes which cost more. Such comparions are pointless, even the Mustang. The Mustang is not substantially the same as an E-clips; you get more and it costs more. Real world!

WT

mirage00 said...

The E-clips, if finished etc, will be a great value in the $1.0mm - $2.0mm category

Exactly! I would say it is now, considering you can't buy a new jet for $1.6 million today.

but its not going to kill the market for airplanes which cost more.

Nobody said it would.

The Mustang is not substantially the same as an E-clips; you get more and it costs more. Real world!

Not really... its just has a larger cabin but you pay for that in up front $$$ and operational costs.

I remain amused

double 00

WhyTech said...

Moo said:

"its just has a larger cabin "

Bingo!

About 15 years ago, a new term came into the marketing litearture: "whole product." This term acknowledges that purchase desisions are based on far more than just the physical product. The whole product includes the airplane, service and parts for the airplane, training, reputation of the manufacturer, and a much longer list of both tangible and intangible characteristics of the product. Different buyers, either consciously, or unconsciously, assign different values to each component of the product in making their purchase decision. For some, a larger cabin has a much higher value than others. When the whole product represented by the Mustang is considered, it is seen by a segment of the market to offer more than the E-clips, even though it costs more. In other words, these buyers see the Mustang to be a better value than the E-clips, all things considered.

WT

Niner Zulu said...

Whytech, good point. If you were to take an Eclipse and start adding things to it that you don't get from Eclipse, you'd quickly be at Mustang pricing.

i.e. External storage. Worth a lot to me because I have kids and a wife that loves Costco. And yes, she knows what items have to go in the cabin and which can be left "outside". A "wife friendly" plane is worth $200,000 more to me. More, if she's in a bad mood ;-)

Large rear cabin. The Eclipse get's pretty narrow in back. It's tight, especially with luggage. My kids can sprawl out in my Mirage, which they can't in the Eclipse, and the Mustang is even better. What's that worth to me? At least $100,000. Makes the wife happier, too. Add another $50,000 for that!

G1000. I love Garmin equipment - no offense to AvioNG but I do! Great looking, very functional, well tested, no gimmicks. If Eclipse switched to the G1000 I'd be more seriously interested in it. Toss AvioNG, add a G1000, and raise the price $50,000.

What's a standard YOKE worth vs a side stick? Turbulent, icy, dark, solid IFR with mountains below and an autopilot problem? I'd pay $100,000 right there on the spot! I want the use of either hand, and Eclipse doesn't allow that. Big drawback, IMHO.

What is a reliable company supporting your aircraft worth? That's a good question - if I were buying a Mustang at $2.8 million, and someone offered me the same jet but with limited support from a startup company with no long-term track record on maintenance or reliability, how much discount would I want to see before I'd even consider it? Well, for me it would take a lot because I've been in situations where I need the support. This, alone, is probably worth at least $500,000 to me - perhaps a lot more.

Bragging rights - worth zero to me but you certainly get them when you buy a Mustang. It is a very impressive plane to look at, especially side by side with the Eclipse.

Anyway, point being - you get what you pay for, or don't pay for in the case of the Eclipse.

WhyTech said...

9Z said:

"Makes the wife happier, too. Add another $50,000 for that!"

For me, add $5,000,000!

WT

ExEclipser said...

Here's the value. A company out there wants to get people from one place to another as fast and as convienient as possible. They want to be able to do it for the lowest price possible. No need for flair, just a fair fare.

ExEclipser said...

You know what, guys? That's the whole thing about this blog. The naysayers are pretty much those people who prefer something other than the Eclipse. That's great. But why bash the little plane to pieces?

There are all the standard replies, ie: Vern, Promises, Finances, etc etc. But as for the plane itself, it's getting there. Slow, I grant it. But slow.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Niner Zulu said...

Then again, it ain't no Mustang...

;-)

Gunner said...

Exe-
There are so many assumptions in your argument of support that need to be factored into "value", I don't know where to start.

You say they're "slow but getting there"...I'd hope, after spending $1.5 BILLION dollars, they'd be "fast and already there". The very fact of where they are after burning thru that kind of money is a monumental testimony to managerial incompetence.

Your entire argument assumes that this company will have investment dollars continue to pour in to cover the remaining costs of development, certification, subsidy of the first few hundred (1,000?) jets, subsidy of the sweetheart deals with companies like DayJet, ramp up of service centers and a number of other unfunded liabilities.

That's whole lot to assume. The last time they went to the market, their preferred deal blew up and they took in 1/2 of what they were looking for. Looks like they'll be right back in the market, in the near future. And, in case you haven't noticed, the market in June/July was a FAR different market from what it is today.

I really can't see the reason for celebration of production of partial aircraft. I can't think of any successful aircraft company in aviation history that has come close to the cost overruns and time overruns, let alone the release into production of a product that is not nearly complete.

Don't break out the Champagne just yet.
Gunner

Bassmaster said...

I came back to find the same speculative BS and personal attacks as I saw a couple days ago when I found this site. Execlipser seems to have the right idea. My question about the "cartwheeling Lears" I asked was absolutely swept under the cyber-rug...so that everyone could continue to argue. Is there another site, unbiased, aside from the obvious mfgs site where I can actually get some good info? I really don't care about their finances. I honestly like the concept. From people I talk to "in the know" the plane is rediculously simple as for flight controls and such. I know about the window issues. The avionics and Avio system seem like software teething issues. Why does it look like a Rutan design BTW?

hummer said...

Hey Bassmaster
Try This. (What I did) Go back to the very fist posting on this blog and take the time to read to the current postings. You'll get a lot of questions answered. Most of the people on this blog are smarter than I am; most have a lot more wealth than I do; however I have learned a great deal and continue to learn.
Almost everyone on here has a desire to help. . .provided you don't have smart mouth.
PS
If you can find a better blog, please let me know. If it is not
bias, probably isn't any good.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
hummer said...

9Z
Eclipse Owners Club is not biased?
Show me the mechanical problems currently causing havoc? How about the airconditioning failures? I could go on and on.

Bassmaster said...

Hummer, it does seem like some seriously overzealous production specs. I also see many folks talking about mismanagement. I saw all the BS about free sodas for line workers and such. When viewing the E site it seems the board and VPs have pedigrees that should have allowed them to pull the reigns. I don't know Mr. Raburn and I've actually had contact with just one of the VPs...and this person demontrates high integrity and a sound aerodynamic knowledge-base. I now see the heat of finance...however I think the little jet ITSELF is/ could be a huge leap from the status quo of genav aircraft in general. It reminds me of the old piston debate as to why isn't there digital fuel inj and such. Why such an aversion to "Lexus" type engine tech in aircraft engines. Yes I know about the Lexus aircraft engine project...KISS IS HUGE!!!..and will prevail when we fly our families around. A Lexus automobile can't fall out of the sky (but it CAN park itself;)). Understood...but when will this change...just a bit. Again the finance structure is obscure but who really knows what capital these folks have??? IMO if something should happen to the financial structure...the company is a GREAT BUY (some debt to sell off maybe) since there is already enough FAA CofA aircraft flying. Bottom line is that worst case someone shows up to buy and they don't have to spend the supposed 1.5B...just get FIKI and sort out Avio. Hummer, I didn't realize how much info WAS/IS actually here!

Gunner said...

If only we could dismiss financial realities from the the discussion of business survival, we could all live like Kings.

Unfortunately, money (or lack thereof) is something of a factor when we look at businesses and their products. No, I take that back, it's a HUGE factor.

In fact studies have shown that 100% of every business that ever failed was due to lack of funding to continue. Those that were gushing red ink, simply did so sooner.

Go figure! ;-)
Gunner

hummer said...

9Z
But see I'm glad they're having these problems.
Eclipse for Sale
Asking: $1,595,135
Serial: 257
Standard Price $1,309,466
Options: 99,669
Premium 186,000
If everything was going great, this aircraft would be offered at a much
higher rate.
Look at the used Mustangs for sale an see what they're going for.
My only problem is that delivery of this aircraft maybe in 2009 or maybe never.

Bassmaster said...

Wouldn't there be a few folks salivating at the notion to pick the company (certificated aircraft) up in the event of a failure?

WhyTech said...

gunner said:

"If only we could dismiss financial realities from the the discussion of business survival"

I have worked with dozens of startup CEO's over the last 20 years. The ones that caused me the most grief were those who would say," I cant wait to get this financing completed so I can get back to running the business." I always took these guys aside and told them that of their top ten priorities raising money was priority 1-5, and 6-10 didnt really matter that much. Some finally got it, and some never did. For an emerging company CEO, raising money is running the business. When you are out of cash, you are out of business.

WT

Ken Meyer said...

Bassmaster--

Email me at Eclipseowner@gmail.com and I'll post your questions on the owners' site.

The owner's website was set up to be entirely separate from the company so that we could pursue the interests of owners without worrying about what the company thinks of our discussions. To date, I've found the discussions frank, honest, and forthright--both the good and the bad get discussed.

I am hoping the owners' website will soon have an open section where guys like you can ask questions and hope to get a reasonably unbiased answer. The naysayers may suggest that owners have a bias (and of course they do), but I still think it is your best shot at getting an honest answer. Far better than here IMHO.

If you have real questions you want answers to, send them to me and I'll post them for you and forward the answers.

Ken

Gunner said...

BM-
Yep, if someone could pick up the certified design for what it's worth...about $200-250 Million, they'd have a start. (That's what it would cost real professionals to certify a similar plane.)

I doubt they'd want to pick up the hundreds of millions in liabilities to Depositors, however; or the 1.5 Billion owed to investors. So, that means buying it from a bankruptcy proceeding....sometime around 2011, after all the suits work their way thru court.

Then the new owners could get to work on finishing the design and getting it into production.

Sound like a winner to you?
Gunner

hummer said...

Ken
Nuff said. No use to beat a dead horse.

airsafetyman said...

Would somebody please post the empty weight of a recently-delivered aircraft with all the mods available to date? It would then be possible to figure out the useful load from the maximum weight which is specified in the Type Certificate Data Sheets.

Bassmaster said...

Thanks Ken. I would assume the site is uncensored and therefore unbiased...based on owners actual experiences. Hummer, I figure someone that has waited years to take delivery of an aircraft and the fact that they're deposit $ could have been working for them would have the good AND BAD as Ken implies. It would be nice if it was an open site...but then it could easily be contaminated by non owners. I do see a trend on this blog. It is what it is. If the little jet isn't good enough there ARE other choices. I'd like to own/have an L60XR...managed 135....they will fly like a bus...but from what I'm hearing the E500 will fly high cycle "bus-like" legs at a fraction of the Lear....But damn if that 60 isn't good looking! Again thanks Ken...wilco.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

See Bassmaster,

All you have to do is submit your questions about the wonder jet to the Arch Bishop of the Church of Vern, and he will then ask them of the Cardinals in the Church of Vern, and if they deem your questions worthy they will have the Deacons of the Church of Vern fabricate an answer for you based on The Truth (as defined in the Book of E-ConJet, Chapter 4, Verse 3-4) - and I quote:

"Yeah though I walk through the the valley of the shadow of reality, I will fear no critic, for Vern is with me."

Ken, whose primary 'contribution' to the blog is faithful regurgitation of the talking points from The Clark Carr Cathedral and making leaps of faith that would leave Peter and Paul with their jaws hanging, has suggested that having your questions parsed and edited at his private owner's club is more valuable than the uncontrolled opinions here (both for and against) may be among the most laughable things ever posted here.

I will close with a prayer:

Our Vern,
Who art in Albuquerque
Hallowed be thy name
Thy money will come,
Thy plane will may be done,
on earth as it is in heaven.
Give us this day our daily press release,
and forgive us our doubts,
as we forgive those who doubt against us;
and lead us not into Citation,
but deliver us from Mustang. Amen.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

And lest the faithful be upset that we are not addressing technical issues, I would like to know what the faithful are hearing about continuing issues with wing twist and smoothness from Fuji, poor fitting radomes and forward cockpit sections, bad fits on the rear horizontal tail assembly.

Given the past approach to other 'poor performing' vendors, how long until Eclipse fires Fuji or Hampson?

No official updates on Avio NfG in a while either, wonder how that is all going?

And how about the revsed, updated, changed, upgraded, refired, now-we-really-know-what-we-are-doing delivery schedule? Seems to me there should be several hundred deliveries by now, not several dozen.

Also, name one aircraft that has been delivered fully-functioning, as promised. Just one.

I can, it is called Mustang, and there are soon to be two dozen in the hands of owners and operators.

No IOU's, no beta models, no test-pilot-in-a-box, just the airplane that was promised.

How revolutionary!

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

"continuing issues with wing twist and smoothness from Fuji, poor fitting radomes and forward cockpit sections, bad fits on the rear horizontal tail assembly"

imagine the real production rate, given no problems as sited above?

600-700 dedicated folks working furiously at delivering airplanes for over a year?

gimme a break - the place has to be a hornets nest of misfit parts, problems beyond belief and quality snafus out the ying yang, or they are all lazy incompetant assholes who cannot pice together the wonder-jet-erector-set for their lives.

Open eyes, ears and brain. Explain how a $1.x billion management team misses their predictions regarding output by 90% and then 50% or more over and over again...

BIG PROBLEMS...BIG. UNresolvable any time soon brand of problems.

Think

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

If he wanted to make a true, unbiased controbution to the blog, Ken could simply answer ATM's question for Ken to list the issues as he see's them - it has only been a couple weeks now.

One mans' "Spewing venomous hate as a spurned Eclipse lover" is another man's "Keeping it Real".

I report, you decide. ;^)

ColdFish

airtaximan said...

bassmaster,

use your head and imagine why no major established operator ordered any of these planes.

The level of BS regarding how these planes can be use cost-effectively for transport, has, well, e-clipsed all the other BS.

Anyone who has looked has said "no".

Before you bite on the high cycle BS, better ask yourself why.

Then, read all of Ken;s posts, and visit Dayjet, to see what it takes to dive in.

- old friendship and sweetheart deal at 40% off retail with limited deposits and others financing your progress payments.

- just unabashed jet-envy without the wallet for a real jet and no concern for safety, reliability or company solvency. Pehaps a little sexual-tendency towards geeky former microsoft employees...see his recent posts.

Bend over, hold ankles...oooh, Vern THAT felt GOOOD! ok, TAKE THE WALLET TOO WHILE YOU ARE AT IT!

hummer said...

Bassmaster. .
Right at the present time I'm considering jumping in and am
highly frustrated. On the one
hand, the Eclipse looks very attractive. On the other hand,
the negatives from some that have
first hand knowledge is scary.
When I add up the overhead and the
production along with other negatives, the numbers just don't add up. While the heart says do it, the head says not so fast.
I've got balls the size of an elephant.
And a can't quite identify this ambiquity with any other experience that I've had.
So. . looks like sitting on the fence is the course of action.
For now till the end of the year.
At least until I resolve some of the hostility.

Welcome on board.

Get the sanitize and unsanitze verisions and you could go a little nuts
tooo.

Bassmaster said...

NinerZulu, as for "wing twist" can you elaborate? That's the kind of info I'm interested in. It sounds like the aero aspect design of the plane is sound...but I'd really like your take on this. Please give the details I'm so interested in. I DID hear...or read about roll issues. Only you can "answer me that" if you have the info. Again...I like the aircraft concept, the idea...the planform...the weights and such. It's not a rocket by any means...but I think it's a sound aero design. A wise aerodynamicist once stated "If it looks like it will fly good, it probably will"...or something like that. Again I ask...Why does the thing look so much like a Scaled Composites (Rutan) design. I understand the entire main structure (minus various fairings) is aluminum.

Gunner said...

Question:
If, in Ken's words and world, I'm a "spurned lover" of Eclipse, what exactly would that mean as to his image of himself?

Some of this stuff is just too strange to contemplate.
Gunner

Bassmaster said...

Airtaximan, I'd imagine no established operator has ordered them because of simple cash flow...laying out $ for 3+ year delivery...NO WAY for the typical 135 ops. Besides their clients are usually coaxed, however slowly by the sales team of the operator, to upsize. Ex: L35 to 55 or 60 to CL604 to G3/4 etc. NetJets, Flexjet,Jetdirect learned the cash flow model often the hard way.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

BassMaster,

The original V-Jet as well as the original Eclipse (code-named Pronto) were both designed by Rutan according to the Eclipse mythos as I have heard.

After Dr. Masefield joined Eclipse, Rutan's influence was removed and the design was reportedly re-lofted stem to stern. The forward window shape and basic loft of the nose section are probably what makes you see Rutan, even though to my knowledge he had nothing to do with the final shape.

As I understand it, the wing twist issues are due to abnormally stringent (in industry terms) dimensioning requirements (numbers are too tight to efficiently and affordably manufacture), coupled with extremely poor quality control. The Eclipse contract is actually pretty small in dollar terms for a company like FHI, and they are clearly not getting the "A" team from FHI. There may be some bad tooling issues, possible shipping issues (they are shipped oceanic transsport) and I suspect major assembly\mounting issues at Eclipse that are combining to introduce significant twist into the wings. Look at any Eclipse on the ramp for the various 'trim tabs' affixed in odd locations to get a feel for how bad the assymetric twist issue has been on the first 30-40 planes.

Mouse I believe has tried several times to cover the issues with the vertical stab assembly to aft fuselage join and\or the horizontal tail mounting issues.

Folks who have seen the planes in person have commented repeatedly on the very poor paint application, overapplication of aero-sealant\smoother between the nose section and the radome, pathetic spray on placarding, and a profoundly disheartening number of INOP stickers due to the lack of feature set from Avio.

Digest that and come back for more - there is plenty.

AlexA said...

Angry rejected rat said “The engine has no flat-rating, and so it is burning itself up in normal operations.”

Really (From P&W literature)?
PW610F
Take-off rating Thermo T/O Trust 1112
T/O Flat Rated 900

PW615F
Take-off rating Thermo T/O Trust 1568
T/O Flat Rated 1350

PW617F
Take-off rating Thermo T/O Trust 1885
T/O Flat Rated 1615

PW610F 81%
PW615F 86%
PW617F 86%

Bad rat, bad rat!

Hate to sound like Ken but the Eclipse has an APR mode which in case of a problem with one of the engines will “spool” up the “good” engine to produce more thrust. Mental slip? Ignorance? Or Malicious rumor? You decide.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

APR is a take off safety function, and typically results in inspections upon landing if it was activated BECAUSE it is hard on the engine.

I think we should begin providing remedial airplane learnin' for the faithful - it seems that with noted exceptions (EO387 for example), Eclipse attracts naive and inexperienced would-be jet-jockeys like the recent auction 'winner' with a whopping 400 hours but $1.9M burnin a hole in his pocket.

Lesson number 1 for Alexa, the pointy end goes forward.

Black Tulip said...

I've met someone really special; someone I'd like to spend the rest of my life with. But I have a couple of secrets that I haven't been able to tell this person even though we've known each other for two years.

The problems are these: My sister works as a prostitute. We haven't been able to change her behavior, not matter how hard we try. Everyone we could call on has tried to intercede, but she hovers at the deepest depths of society.

My brother is incarcerated in federal prison for repeated drug offenses; again no one among family, friends or clergy has been able to change him. He steers a course through life that is all his own and surely it will be a short one.

But my question is this. Before my future fiancée and I become engaged, shouldn't I tell her that I've put down a deposit on an Eclipse 500 Jet?

Black Tulip

Metal Guy said...

Albuquerque, NM

August 30, 2007

Dear loyal Eclipse customer,

We sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding during the difficult and lengthy process you have endured while awaiting your promised jet. I’m very sure your frustration will diminish when you finally slide into the cockpit of your new Jet, which is faster, highly improved and fully completed.

In the mean time, we have wonderful news that we have successfully completed a critical milestone of the test program. We have confirmed that the PhostrEx (TM) fire bottle design does indeed work. Why, just earlier today, we fired off the bottle in a controlled environment in an effort to prove to the FAA that we indeed have a very predictable and repeatable manufacturing process here at the global headquarters of Eclipse.

With this first manufacturing test, we have kicked off our official “Real Time Manufacturing Test” program with a bang. Um, no, pun intended. From here-on in, whenever we run into other, um, unscheduled test cycles on the production floor, it will be under our new RTMT program. “We meant to do that” will be the new production floor slogan, at least until the end of the calendar year when we will announce an even more innovative program. We will be updating all manufacturing processes to fold in the new RTMT philosophy by next Tuesday.

Thank you for your continued financial support.

Have a great day!

Vern

http://www.abqjournal.com/abqnews/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4708&Itemid=2

flightguy said...

AlexA said,

"Hate to sound like Ken but the Eclipse has an APR mode which in case of a problem with one of the engines will “spool” up the “good” engine to produce more thrust."

Engine mfgrs do not need APR if the engine puts out at the required rated thrust. It's just a flashy bell and whistle for potential losses in efficiency over time.

FYI, AlexA I was going to give you KUDOs for stumbling upon the DJET results from the aircraft water ingestion test -unknowingly. I made some phone calls and asked the right questions. They are looking at a new gear to move the relative inlet position. That's a long way from compressor stalls and engine problems. This happens to many aircraft mfgrs for the first go.

Gunner said...

Hey, Alexa's back, demonstrating the usual calm charm and demeanor that we've come to know and love from The Faithful.

Here's something for you, hon. Rumor has it I attended a business meeting earlier this week and failed to don my necktie. It may have been caught on camera and now be available on Google.

Welcome home.
Go fetch. ;-)
Gunner

Gunner said...

Flightguy said:
"FYI, AlexA I was going to give you KUDOs for stumbling upon the DJET results from the aircraft water ingestion test -unknowingly. I made some phone calls and asked the right questions. They are looking at a new gear to move the relative inlet position. That's a long way from compressor stalls and engine problems."


Foul. The water ingestion concern was known months ago, as it is a perennial concern with wing root air inlets. Stan mentioned it to me at least 4 months ago. Diamond freely admitted it was a concern to be worked thru in design and test.

Hardly the same as "known compressor stalls".

By the way, I understand Christian Dries may have received a speeding ticket 2 weeks back. Hasn't gone to court yet, but that shouldn't matter. It may already be on Google. Have at it, oh Ye Faithful.
Gunner

cj3driver said...

Bassmaster said;

“… Right at the present time I'm considering jumping in and am highly frustrated …”


I just saw Mustang s/n 26 listed on controller at $2.97M. Serial number 25 (N325RR) just flew away yesterday, so 26 will be ready to fly soon. I would be willing to bet you could buy this Mustang next week, fly it for a year, and still sell it at close to what you paid (maybe more) if you don’t like it. Then make the decision on an Eclipse a year from now. Assuming you have made the decision to purchase a NEW twinjet, there really isn’t much downside to this scenario.

If the faithful are right, and Vern is able to produce 2 fully functional planes a day … a year from now, the market will be flooded with Eclipses. I believe the prices will be soft, so a good deal will likely be had. There will be a little more history on the airframe, the fixes, (Aviong ect.) and the financial situation may be improved and you can “jump in” will greatly reduced risk. Plus with 500 or so flying, there will be plenty of low time used ones to choose from. Typically 5-10% of any particular model are on the market at a given time.

If the critics are right, and Eclipse runs into more trouble, (technically or financially) you will be hundreds of thousands if not a couple million dollars ahead.

Also, if Eclipse doesn’t make it, there should be increased demand for alternatives, such as the Mustang, and you will be glad you got one. I am very sure that if Eclipse doesn’t make it, Cessna will increase the price of the Mustang again. In 2009-10 the Pheonom’s will hit the market, but with an equipped price of $3.5-$3.7 if not more.

I still think a used CJ is a great starter jet and bargain if you can pick one up at $2.5M or less. Again, I really don’t think you will take a bath on depreciation if you don’t like it.

FWIW, Unless you purchase an Eclipse that has already been delivered, the risk on buying a position is not worth it. If you are sold on the Eclipse, try to find one that is already flying. The six month 60% payment is a deal killer to me. I would rather fly the plane back and forth to ABQ 100 times (for fixes) rather than risk a million dollars unsecured.

Either way, …. Definitely take the jump. There is nothing like the excitement and thrill of piloting you own jet. Life is short, Jet fever is real, and you won’t be sorry.

mouse said...

JetABurner rightfully stated the Eclipse was designed to fly 3 people and their baggage in one of his statements.

And just like the Cessna 340, it too can carry 3 + bags (luggage not wives)....

The problem comes in when you have to add the pilot! It is an ideal owner flown airplane, and a piss poor revenue generating platform.

AlexA said...

Flightguy said “FYI, AlexA I was going to give you KUDOs for stumbling upon the DJET results from the aircraft water ingestion test -unknowingly.” Thanks Flightguy. It’s amazing how unknowingly I stumble across this information.

Stan please take a bow. Now you have confirmation of the problems with D-Jet and it was released here! Gee breaking new on your web site. Oh, wait. You said your sources told you there were no problems. Oh well so much for your sources.

Cinderella maybe its time to call Fred and see how quickly you get your deposit back. For everyone’s sake please make sure you pull over before dialing;)

AlexA said...

Cinderella said “Stan mentioned it to me at least 4 months ago.” I guess Stan must be Prince Charming. Now I begin to see the connection. It’s amazing how the pieces fall together.

Prince Charming this certainly brings your credibility into question. How such a valuable piece of information was kept secret by no other than Cinderella and Prince Charming. All the while denying problems with the design. Go figure.

mouse said...

Asymetric flaps, yep...

The design Eclipse is using on the flaps looks for a split in the amp load between all of the actuators. This is why they failed to work properly during ground testing on the prototype, yet the engineers would not consider a more conservative method.

You can get one wing loaded up more than the other (aerodynamically) and the flap actuators have enough of a split amp load to stop the movement.. Pretty poor design...

And yes, if/when the screw up, the also screw down and with similiar force as hydraulic, and they would need too... hydraulics or electric, the flap load is the same.

flightguy said...

AlexA,

Don't get overly excited. There are no compressor stall issues for the DJet or engines. Secondly, chined tires are very common. Stan was perfectly clear that there are no compressor stall issues with the aircraft. Unfortunately, you didn't know the right question to ask.

Gunner said...

Alexa-
Did I ever deny "problems with the design"?

Nope. This is what REAL aircraft manufacturers do. They design, they test, they redesign, they test, they tweak, they produce. Others design, take money, produce, take more money, redesign, issue IOU, get more money, redesign some more and reissue more IOU's.

Now, tell us again about the D-Jet "compressor stalls", Alexa. We WERE talking about credibility, no?
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

coldwet wrote,

"APR is a take off safety function, and typically results in inspections upon landing if it was activated BECAUSE it is hard on the engine."

Maybe you should read the Eclipse AFM before speaking. There is no such inspection requirement for the Eclipse.

APR is a great idea for a lightweight jet; I give a lot of credit to Eclipse and PWC for employing it. The plane gets really good emergency performance because of APR--heck it has more than 3X the climbrate with an engine out that my Cessna 340 has!

APR is a great idea; only axe-grinders could say otherwise.

Ken

mouse said...

BassMaster... Because Burt designed it for Dr. Williams...

AlexA said...

Flightguy said “Stan was perfectly clear that there are no compressor stall issues with the aircraft.” Very noble of you to run out and defend Stan, I like it! I would also recommend that you follow the threads to the water ingestion comments.

The compressor stall post still stands, the water ingestion post still stands and you should expect an announcement of a different power plant shortly. Now comes the difficult question. With all these late problems will DJET make the announced certification date? What do you think?

Is Diamond lying to their depositors? Should they be telling the depositors that the schedule certification date will probably slip nine months? When should they make the announcement? Sounds like double standards to me.

No question that if Diamond decides to complete the DJET they will (not on time, not on budget). This does not make them evil.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Inspections are in the AMM Ken, not AFM. Perhaps you should read my post where I said 'typically'.

AlexA said...

Flightguy said "They are looking at a new gear to move the relative inlet position."

Yep, darn thing should be ready on Tuesday;-)

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