Sunday, August 05, 2007

Can You Connect the Dots?

One of the mysteries surrounding the Eclipse program is why approvals have been put on the fast track by the FAA, at the highest level.

The GIT-R-DONE post, April 24, 2007 discussed three examples:

1. The Provisional Type Certificate Marion Blakey presented Vern at Oshkosh 2006, the one where she proclaimed, "What I have in my hand is probably the most significant piece of paper in America today, a piece of paper that will truly change the face of aviation."

It was presented by Executive Order! The airplane was still being tested when she was on the podium at Oshkosh.

2. Washington put pressure on the field offices to use whatever manpower necessary, work as much overtime as possible, delay requests to support other companies needing FAA support, do what it takes but finish the process in ABQ.

3. The C of A's for the three DayJet airplanes? Here is what was reported to me verbatim, except I have blanked a specific name and title:".... the FAA ASI's Inspecting the planes were finding a large number of problems- mostly workmanship issues, when they were looking inside. After several delays, Washington sent in the (title blanked) of Aircraft Certification Service, (name blanked), to take over, and (name) kicked the FAA San Antonio MIDO ASI's out, and signed an agreement with Eclipse that the FAA ASI's would no longer look inside panels or floorboards.

A day later, the Fighting Back post provided a fourth example with a link to the Grievance that stated in part:

"The faa management did this (issued Eclipse a Type Certificate) without allowing the aircraft certification engineers and flight test pilots to properly complete their assigned certification/safety responsibilities."

I guess with all the other crap that is going on in Washington such as the no-bid contracts in Iraq, Cheney and Haliburton, the members of Congress on the take, and whatever else is going on, the Eclipse FAA Fast Track is just too esoteric for any Washington reporter to be concerned enough to investigate.

However, one of our fellow bloggers has refused to let these events die and has provided some interesting leads:

Let's start with Marion Blakey, the FAA Administrator. We are going to overlook the fact she has absolutely no background in aviation, probably appointed by the same guy who appointed Brownie the head of FEMA. I digress, sorry, Marion's specialty is in transportation and traffic safety issues. From 1993 to 2001, she was the principal of Blakey & Associates, a Washington, D.C. public affairs consulting firm.

Today, Blakey & Associates is now Blakey & Agnew whose Principal is a Leslie Blakey, relationship to Marion is unknown. The firm still specializes in transportation and traffic safety issues.

Leslie Blakey, is executive director of the National Campaign to Stop Red Light Running. Their web site www.stopredlightrunning.com.

So far, just a few facts, nothing incriminating, but now let's go to an unrelated source, Santa Fe Sheriff Greg Solano and his December 11, 2006 blog entry which reads in part:

Red Light Running Prevention Web Site tied to Camera Industry

The Free New Mexican has posted a link on its Red Light Camera Story to a web site called www.stopredlightrunning.com. The web site purports to be part of The National Campaign to Stop Red Light Running . Some cursory checking shows the site and the National Campaign is sponsored by the Red Light Camera Industry. Among the sponsors is Redflex Traffic Systems.

This company has contracts in 106 cities world-wide and, with 90 USA cities under contract, is the largest provider of digital red light and speed enforcement services in North America. It is also the same company who supplies the cameras to Albuquerque and is proposing to supply them to Santa Fe.

The Executive Director of the National Campaign to Stop Red Light Running is Leslie Blakey. She is a hired gun from the firm Blakey & Agnew, LLC. This is a public affairs and communications consulting firm based in Washington, DC. The web site www.stopredlightrunning.com is an advertisement for the Red Light Camera industry. All the news listed in its news section pertains to Red Light Camera's. The only solution listed to preventing red light running accidents is the camera's. Nothing about proper light timing, enforcement by officers, or education of the driving public. Why do I bring all this up? This highlights one of the big concerns I have about this industry.

The movement for these camera's is being developed by private company's with an intense profit motive. The company's charge up to 40% of the fine to provide equipment, technical support and administer the program. Cities cannot install the cameras without contracting with these companies to provide the complete package with a percentage of ticket fines going to the company. Because of the high cost of administering the program the fines are set extremely high usually with entities using the excuse that the fines need to be high in order to be an effective deterrent.

These companies gloss over safety concerns brought about involving rear end collisions when drivers stop suddenly to avoid a red light camera ticket. That message would reduce sales. Since most states require citations to be issued by an officer who witnesses the violation (New Mexico included), these companies promote a civil violation program which skirts the state law.

On December 6, 2006, Sheriff Solano wrote:

The movement for these camera's is being developed by private company's with an intense profit motive. These company's have even been ensnared in bribery investigations in order to get cities to enact ordinances which allow the camera's. The company's charge up to 40% of the fine to provide equipment, technical support and administer the program. Because of the high cost of administering the program the fines are set extremely high usually with entities using the excuse that the fines need to be high in order to be an effective deterrent.

Then on December 13, 2006, Sheriff Solano wrote:

Yesterday Christmas came early for Santa Fe County. Santa wore a Bolo Tie as Governor Bill Richardson's staff called me a couple of days ago and asked me if I would like $300,000 to hire 4 more deputies and assign them to work strictly on the D.W.I. problem in Santa Fe County. I was really excited as I said "absolutely"!

Merry Christmas.

143 comments:

EclipseOwner387 said...

They are sisters. Simple google search. You guys ever heard of the Pink Panther... your sleuth skills are right up there with Peter Sellers.

;-)

EclipseOwner387 said...

New FAA Head to Face Many Challenges
Fri Sep 13, 3:26 PM ET
By LESLIE MILLER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - A line from an old Shirelles song is how Marion Blakey sums up the challenges she'll face when she takes charge of the Federal Aviation Administration ( news - web sites) next week.

Speaking recently to a group of airline pilots, whose safety she fought for as chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board ( news - web sites), she warbled, "Will you still love me tomorrow?"

Her friend Joan McEntee said the off-key serenade was typical.

"It was shrewd, it was very disarming, it was very honest and it was gutsy," said McEntee, now senior international partner at the Baker, Donaldson law firm.

Blakey, 54, took over the NTSB ( news - web sites) 15 days after the Sept. 11 attacks. She was nominated by President Bush ( news - web sites) in July to take on the bigger job of running the nation's aviation system at the FAA, which she has criticized as slow to act on her recommendations to make airplanes safer.

Starting Monday, Blakey will manage 100 times as many people and 21 times as much money than she did at the 450-person, $68 million safety board.

She'll oversee airport expansion, FAA labor negotiations, air traffic control system modernization and the retirement of as many as 5,000 controllers in four years. Airlines are reeling from financial losses as they work to better guard against terrorist attacks.

"The industry is in really dire straits," Blakey said. "That's the first, if you will, large challenge that we have to help address."

Blakey became a television presence seven weeks into her job as safety board chief, when she reassured the nation that the crash of American Airlines Flight 587 in Queens probably didn't result from a terrorist attack.

Dressed in an official blue NTSB jacket, Blakey looked every bit the government bureaucrat, though her personal life is much less buttoned-down. A former Sunday school teacher, she's ridden a motorcycle along half of Australia's coast and likes to brag about her grandmother, who was Elvis Presley's third-grade music teacher in Tupelo, Miss.

Blakey said safety concerns will undergird everything she does on the job. It's something she's passionate about, said her best friend, Susan Lacey, creator of the PBS series "American Masters." "She's been on the soapbox about it," Lacey said.

Blakey's challenge at the FAA will be to straighten out a sluggish, poorly structured agency, said Rep. John Mica ( news, bio, voting record), R-Fla., chairman of the House aviation subcommittee.

"I've called FAA dysfunctional and she's the person that can help make it work properly," said Mica.

"They don't act and planes fall out of the sky," he said, adding the agency has been slow to order fixes to repeated mechanical problems with one aircraft's rudders, another's wiring.

"The vendors and contractors are in for a rude awakening because she won't put up with delays, she won't put up with excuses and she won't put up with budget overruns," he said.

Phil Boyer, president of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, called Blakey a Southern version of Jane Garvey, whose five-year term as FAA administrator expired in August. Garvey had excellent people skills and worked well with Congress, he said.

"It's an excellent choice," he said.

Michael J. Boyd, president of the aviation consulting firm Boyd Group in Evergreen, Colo., criticized Blakey as a political hire with little aviation experience. "A giant unknown," he said.

Blakey grew up in Montgomery, Ala., the daughter of an insurance lawyer and an English teacher. Religion played a big role in their lives, said her only sibling Leslie Blakey.

That — and her accent — remained with her, Leslie said.

"Her voice and accent haven't changed since the day she stepped on the train to Mary Washington College at the University of Virginia," she said.

Upon graduation, she and Lacey bought a Capitol Hill row house for $25,000 and renovated much of it themselves.

Blakey was embarking on a government career that took her from the National Endowment for the Humanities through the Department of Education ( news - web sites), the White House and the Commerce Department ( news - web sites). When the Democrats moved into the White House in 1993, she started a small public relations firm that her sister later joined and now helps run.

In the mid-1980s, she and her husband, emergency room physician William Dooley, took a 13-month trip around the world, renting a houseboat in Kashmir ( news - web sites) and selling jewelry in Australian flea markets to help pay for the trip.

That sense of adventure, and her 15-year-old daughter, Mona, helped convince her to accept the FAA nomination.

Mona, her only child, wrote her a letter from camp.

"She said, 'Look, you've loved challenges and you've thrived on them and so do we,'" Blakey said. "It was the kind of encouragement I needed."

EclipseOwner387 said...

Blakey said safety concerns will undergird everything she does on the job. It's something she's passionate about, said her best friend, Susan Lacey, creator of the PBS series "American Masters." "She's been on the soapbox about it," Lacey said.

I guess money and power got to her core beliefs. Sad...

EclipseBlogger said...

Stan has finally snapped....

Ken Meyer said...

Eclipseblogger wrote,

"Stan has finally snapped...."

Yep. This latest post is way too much gobbledegook to interest me. Probably most everybody else, too.

There are at least a dozen useful directions the blog could go in that would actually help the people who read it. For instance, the blog could undertake to compare the Eclipse to the various planes that compete with it. But I think maybe Stan doesn't want to do that because he knows the Eclipse winds up looking damn good against anything else you compare it to if you look dispassionately at the numbers. That's just a fact, and the guys here haven't yet figured out how to work around that reality :)

Ken

gadfly said...

No! Stan has not snapped. He is doing something that folks in New Mexico cannot or dare not do, bringing certain things out in the open without the fear of reprisal.

Thanks, Stan, for taking the lid off this can of beans . . . er, "worms".

gadfly

(And the "red light camera issue" is barely the tip of corruption in the "Land of Enchantment" . . . it's just the "latest" in the local news.)

EclipseOwner387 said...

2 Bids now on the Eclipse Ebay Auction. $20K increase.

Gunner said...

Let's tease this apart by pieces.
Does anyone here deny that the publicity spectacle of Eclipse Certification at Oshkosh last year was by direct Administrative order from the head of the FAA?

Can anyone point to another such certification granted in this manner?
Gunner

mouse said...

Blakey was told to "certify the Eclipse this year (last year) if you want to see your bonus". She did what she was told and what she needed to do tomake sure she received her bonus, the hell with public safety, the FAA rules, and the people of the FAA... Sad, very sad.

Senator Pete V. Domenici has played a huge part in making sure Eclipse was granted lots of money to help benefit his state. I was personally at 2 meetings where he was present and assured Vern that he would get state and federal support both financially and otherwise to help him (Eclipse) and the state of NM prosper.

Follow the money...

Double Eagle was pushed by the city and state after Vern decided to NOT expand out there, early in '02. The city and state already had begun easements, water lines (even though the levels of arsenic up at the airport was about 150 times what was allowed in drinking water), road expansion, and housing. Thanks to the city the area zoning was changed and housing is now once again encroaching an airport...

Follow the money...

Eclipse is seen as the states savior because of all the BS Vern has fed to them, and they wanted to be fed a lot, so in a way they helped build the monster...

Ken Meyer said...

mouse wrote,

"Blakey was told to "certify the Eclipse this year (last year) if you want to see your bonus". She did what she was told and what she needed to do tomake sure she received her bonus, the hell with public safety, the FAA rules, and the people of the FAA"

There you have it, folks.

How much clearer a picture could anyone paint of the haters' point of view?

Ken

fred said...

ken ...

did i read right ? or are you joking ??

you better think about this saying "there is no better blind than the one whom doesn't want to see ..."

but for once , i must admit you're true about something ...:

"For instance, the blog could undertake to compare the Eclipse to the various planes that compete with it. But I think maybe Stan doesn't want to do that because he knows the Eclipse winds up looking damn good against anything else you compare it to if you look dispassionately at the numbers"

comparison:
a good comparison , including all parameters as time the producer has been in the business , the chances it could "survive" competitive market , etc ..., would be something very usefull , but i doubt it would be unpartial , too many passions and not enough peoples to accept crude reality ...
(i suppose you understand principle : never to know enough about one thing to make a 100% proof decision , we only deal with what we think we know ...)

"looks damn good..."
that's one of the problem : It ONLY looks good ... !
i have no doubts it could be something worth ,but first it would have to be finished , then all minors details (as written before : windshield, wings , pitot , perfs ,Fiki , etc...) and even then the firm (E.A.) would have to have to solid "backbone" to ensure quality of service and more important = Length of service ( who would like to buy a car , if the contructor of this "disruptive" car would be gone the day after , leaving no one with a clue what they should do next ...= with a car if something go wrong you can pull the handbrake , with a plane .... it's kinda more tricky ....!)

Numbers :

yes compare numbers from perfs to economic costs .... , but for such datas , it would require a "certain " amount of E500 already flying , with a certain amount of owners willing to disclose thoses datas ...! and then the plane would have to be FULLY finished ...!

(one more big doubt ... it take some brave guy to publicly admit ="I was wrong and I've been cheated all the way ..." so most people tend to say the thing they just bought is the best they could find ... in other words , who wants to be noticed as "I've been gullible and stupid enough to be cheated..."

so , yes , comparison would be something usefull , but without any passion , i doubt about it ....!!

about the post from stan :

i do not know enough about that woman to judge about anything ..., thru i wouldn't be surprised too much ...

i am not writting that in the purpose of being nasty , but one of the biggest problem USA is facing is a shameless policy of "immediate profit" VS longer term profits ...

look at what was "Enron" , the electric network (energy agency say 48% of US electric network is out-of-date), or even the refinery producing unleaded ...

no one oil firm made new one in the last 20 years , result = USA has to import lots of gas every year to just face summer , making it unsure and more expensive ...

definitely something wrong in the promised land ....

mirage00 said...

Brilliant Stan!

We are back to the "Conspiracy" issue again? "Smile and wave boys, just smile and wave"

I remain amused!

double 00

mirage00 said...

Ken, you are correct. This post was nothing more than a diversion from the current discussion of "comparable airplanes" to the Eclipse. Even Stan can't come up with an alternative.

Ken, I also heard through my sources, that the AFM was actually printed by a company that is owned by Verns second cousin on his mothers side. Stan, please see what you can find out.

I remain amused!

double 00

WhyTech said...

EO said:

"I guess money and power got to her core beliefs. Sad... "

An FAA employee tells me that within the FAA she is known as "Flakey Blakey."

WT

airsafetyman said...

I suspect the questionable certification basis for the Eclipse is already in the portfolio of dozens of aviation law firms. For once, good for them.

mirage00 said...

I suspect the questionable certification basis for the Eclipse is already in the portfolio of dozens of aviation law firms. For once, good for them.

Wow, talk about "Drinking the Kool-Aid"

I remain amused

double 00

Gustaf said...

Politics, money, whatever got the "Provisional Type Certification" released in July last year. What is a provisional cert anyway? They couldn't do much with it and it's still not a "real" cert. She probabyl felt she was safe in issuing an executive order provisional cert. Then let the official process shake out all the problems before EAC could get their "real" cert. The fact that things are moving slowly in ABQ makes me feel like the processes are working the way they are supposed to. If EAC got a full cert in July last year followed immediately by a production cert, then there would need to be some investigating of the well-lubed wheels of the FAA. I would gladly have offered my testimony of the things I've seen working for one of the vendors.

Stan Blankenship said...

Ken - gobbledegook?

You ran a surgery center. How would you feel if some sleezey character with good political connections opened a surgery center down the street that was able to work the system, bend the regulations, ignore the established protocols for the business and offer sub-standard care, BUT AT AN AFFORDABLE PRICE?

This is precisely what the Eclipse program is doing to the aviation industry.

On the blog, you have your C & dD costs, your BCA comparisons, the blog is not going to waste its time duplicating their efforts.

What you will read on this blog is material that you won't find anywhere else. Like wheels and brakes that will absorb 35% more energy on every landing than what they were originally spec'd for since the weight has grown 28% and the stall speed up 10%.

The blog is here to help you.

Eclipse invites you to land at Telluride. So you go there to see the Aspens in full color.

It is a safe place to visit since the fantasy airplane won't be out-classed by any Mustangs on the ramp. They can't operate there as Vern has told you. Since you read the blog, you also know why...the Mustang is operating to a higher level of safety standards than what Vern has placed on the Eclipse.

Never mind, you are ready to leave but the temp is below freezing. Too bad Eclipse did not see fit to put a large enough battery in to allow cold weather starts. Well there is always a GPU available - except Telluride's is inop, something about a twenty-five cent diode.

We even have that covered. Gadfly developed this shoebox size GPU, now a standard Eclipse option. Powered by model airplane engine, it provides that little bit of a boost when ever needed. He is calling it the Viagrrrrrgh.

It stores under a seat and to use, just take it outside the airplane, plug it in the GPU receptacle and pull the handy starter cord -

grrrrrrrrrrgh

Wait that is not quite right, this sucker is really noisy -

GRRRRRRRRRRRRGH

EclipseOwner387 said...

When you guys start talking about airplanes again let me know. Otherwise, enjoy your white elephant expedition.

WhyTech said...

gustaf said:

"What is a provisional cert anyway?"

A publicity stunt. A triumph of form over substance.

WT

Gunner said...

A bit of "follw the money" history from ABQ:
FAA certification leads to new financing, partnerships for Eclipse

If I recall, even Alexa congratulated Vern on using political clout for this "feat".
Gunner

WhyTech said...

EO said:

"When you guys start talking about airplanes again let me know"

Unfortunately, all this other "stuff" is part of the baggage that comes with the E-clips. Part of the saga, and bound to have some inpact on resale value if nothing else.

WT

EclipseOwner387 said...

Stretch

AeroObserver said...

Stan, you couldn't find any connection between Leslie and Marion Blakey? Welcome to the 21st century, where we have this really cool thing called "Google." In about 5 nanoseconds, I found this: http://www.blakey-agnew.com/html/our_firm_print.htm

Quote from this Web page: "Founded as Blakey & Associates, Inc. in 1993 by Marion Blakey, the present Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, the firm specializes in transportation and education but serves a variety of industries. Two senior consultants, Jeff Agnew and Leslie Blakey, took over the firm in 2001, when President Bush tapped Marion Blakey to be Chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board."

Still, this has absolutely NOTHING to do with Eclipse, unless they're now getting into traffic cameras. Might I suggest that you start an FAA Critic or Marion Blakey Critic blog site? Maybe you can even start a "Fake Marion" blog??? Obviously you have too much time on your hands (must be nice)...

WhyTech said...

EO said:

""When you guys start talking about airplanes again let me know"


Also recall that this blog has been characterized by some participants as a soap opera. How much fun would it be if all speeds and feeds? Needs a post like Stans Marion post from time to time to liven things up. Enjoy the fun.

Stan, you and BT are tied for first place in creativity: Viagrrrrah! Wonderful.

WT

Ken Meyer said...

Stan wrote,

"How would you feel if some sleezey character with good political connections opened a surgery center down the street that was able to work the system, bend the regulations, ignore the established protocols for the business and offer sub-standard care, BUT AT AN AFFORDABLE PRICE?"

Funny you should say that; I did actually once file a formal complaint against a competitor who wasn't following the rules. The bureaucracy did what it always does--it investigated and ultimately reprihanded him. The system works.

Today, you're saying "Eclipse isn't following the rules." OK, file a complaint then.

It looks to me like they followed the rules. FAR 21.81 is pretty clear what they had to do in order to get a Class I Provisional Type Certificate. They followed the rules, and they were awarded a Provisional TC.

You say they took a shortcut. On it's face, that seems unlikely. If they had an inside track to certification, they would never have settled for a Provisional TC (which really anybody can get and a lot of people have--even Gulfstream used that maneuver for the G550). If they were shortcutting the rules, they'd have had a real, honest-to-goodness Type Certificate awarded in July, 2006. Right??

If they were shortcutting the rules, they'd have never announced that the (final) Type Certificate would be issued by August 30 and then miss that date--they'd have just called up their political friends and Git R Done, right?

It defies logic. What's your proof?

BTW, are you familiar with the tort law regarding defamation?

Ken

Stan Blankenship said...

ao,

The post says 'relationship' not 'connection'. The Blakey & Agnew site does not identify the two as sisters.

However, within minutes of the post going up, EO387 cited an article he googled that identfied them as sisters. I had skimmed the same article before writing the post but missed the 'relationship'.

Paid the price, eo made funny at my expense.

I remain amused by your blind defense of this company. When are they going to let you fly it so you can report to the world, "Mission Accomplished!"

Black Tulip said...

It’s a plot, a conspiracy. These red-light cameras are being modified at a secret location by the FAA. They will be set up on mountain tops around the U.S. and used to see if other VLJ manufacturers are exceeding their performance numbers. Some aircraft manufacturers routinely make the ‘book numbers’ but others barely do, even with the bugs cleaned off.

Starting with VLJs, the FAA says this has to stop. The numbers in the aircraft flight manual were meant to be a maximum, exceeded under penalty. Eclipse Aviation is the first to agree to this policy.

Black Tulip

Stan Blankenship said...

Ken,

The best proof is the 'Grievance'.

As an operator, you have probably never had the opportunity to work with the test pilots and engineers who certify these airplanes.

They are not crybabies, they are highly professional, very knowledgable and understand the responsibility of their jobs.

I have never heard of another incident where they have felt so wronged and the situation so serious, that were compelled to submit a grievance because they were not allowed to do their job and were overruled by upper management at the highest levels.

And don't come back and report to the blog how many grievances are filed every year...this one is different.

planet-ex said...

Ken:

That's a bad comparison between the PTC for the Eclipse and the G550. There's a big difference between the two aircraft in that one is being built by a company that has NO previous aircraft experience while the other is a refinement of an aircraft that has been in production for decades.

I gather that you have had no experience with the FAA or aerospace manufacturing (I do..Nordam and Gulfstream).

mirage00 said...

E0387 said...When you guys start talking about airplanes again let me know. Otherwise, enjoy your white elephant expedition.

Stan when you lose one of the most respected posters on this board, it's time you take your ball and consider going home. As I predicted, this blogs days are numbers.


con·spir·a·cy (kən-spîr'ə-sē)
n., pl. -cies.
An agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful, or subversive act.
A group of conspirators.
Law. An agreement between two or more persons to commit a crime or accomplish a legal purpose through illegal action.
A joining or acting together, as if by sinister design: a conspiracy of wind and tide that devastated coastal areas.



I remain amused.

double 00

redtail said...

Stan said... They are not crybabies, they are highly professional, very knowledgable and understand the responsibility of their jobs.

I guess you think they are all cut from the same mold. These are individuals, each with different personalities and motivation.

(By the way, knowledgeable has an "e" in it, I guess you are not)

redtail said...

Stan said... But don't fret, I have a new one for tomorrow nite. Be careful what you wish for.

It would seem that Stan really thought he had something with this baby. It just didn't have nearly the teeth that he had thought it would. It really makes you question how objective Stan really is. I think it is all summed up by this entry that Stan made earlier:

How would you feel if some sleezey character with good political connections opened a surgery center down the street that was able to work the system, bend the regulations, ignore the established protocols for the business and offer sub-standard care, BUT AT AN AFFORDABLE PRICE?

That's what this blog is really all about. Somewhere along the way, Stan got burned, or one of his customers got burned. But what it really comes down to is Stan is losing business because Eclipse decided to offer a product at an AFFORDABLE price. How transparent.

Gunner said...

Yep, all The Critics have a personal axe to grind.
The Faithful, on the other hand, are steely eyed, independent evaluators of The Truth.

A cult by any other name....
Gunner

Gunner said...

How's this for conspiracy:
Cessna, Diamond, Embraer, Honda, Epic and every other manufacturer out there have conspired to keep prices high, raking in vast profits on their planes. How else can one explain the Eclipse pricing structure, except, of course, by admitting that the EA-50X may simply be cheaply put together.

Seems to me the FSW economic argument died when we learned how few parts are actually stir-fried; the economies of scale argument died when we learned the truth about the order book.

Even Ken has resorted to the fall-back position that these other companies all maintain artificially low volume, in order to keep prices high. Of course, this flies in the face of free market economics; especially in an industry as competitive as aviation. But it's like comfort food to The Faithful.
Gunner

redtail said...

Gunner, it certainly seems to get your all lathered up when someone disagrees with you.

Ken Meyer said...

gunner wrote,

"the FSW economic argument died when we learned how few parts are actually stir-fried"

Just how few parts are actually friction stir welded in the Eclipse, anyway, Gunner? What's the number? How many rivets saved? How many man hours saved?

Ken

Gunner said...

Not at all, rth.
Is disagreement only allowed for The Faithful?
Gunner

Gunner said...

Ken said:
"Just how few parts are actually friction stir welded in the Eclipse, anyway, Gunner? What's the number? How many rivets saved? How many man hours saved?"

Asked and answered....months ago. Are you now reverting to the argument that FSW is saving significant dollars or weight on the EA-50X? If so, we can certainly have that debate all over again for the world to see. Who knows? Y'all might even fare better on a do-over. ;-)
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

You don't know, do you, gunner?

How can you attack without knowing the very basics of what you're attacking?

"Load first before you shoot."

Ken

Ken Meyer said...

stan wrote,

"The best proof is the 'Grievance'."

Then there is no proof at all.

The grievance is a union grievance, one of thousands, filed at the height of the dispute between NATCA and the FAA.

And it begins with...

"Under protest and as ordered by FAA management, this grievance is filed in accordance with Article 9 of the illegally implemented working rules..."

That pretty much says it all.

And one more thing...

Many here hide behind a moniker. They can't be slapped with a defamation lawsuit. You, OTOH, need to be sure you do not intentionally make untrue factual statements that damage the company.

Ken

Gunner said...

Ken,
Like I said, the issue was beat into submission nearly a year ago. I've no more intention of doing your homework for you than I do of shooting an already dead horse.

Now, if you'd like to revisit the Marvels of FSW, have at it. Just don't charge ignorance where none exists...that's a "personal attack", and we know how sensitive you are to personal attack.
Gunner

mirage00 said...

Like I said, the issue was beat into submission nearly a year ago. I've no more intention of doing your homework for you than I do of shooting an already dead horse.

Once again, the "bashers" retreat when fact finding becomes necessary to prove their point.

I remain amused.

double 00

Black Tulip said...

The Critics are in for a beating no matter what. If the Eclipse 500 succeeds, The Faithful will be unrelenting. ‘I-told-you-so’s’ will fly and The Critics may have to quietly sell their houses and slip into the next state. With assumed identities, they will look up from their rakes and shovels, and grudgingly admire the sky darkened by Eclipse.

The situation is hardly better should Eclipse fail. Charles Ponzi ran an enormous con game but his fans were outraged at the officers who arrested him. The Faithful will argue that a continued stream of investors and depositors would turn the tide, “If only we could have gotten to 3,000…4,000…or 5,000 orders; that would have done it.”

Black Tulip

Gunner said...

Mirage-
I don't normally respond to you because, quite honestly, there's nothing to respond to. But here's a link for you. Now, follow along closely:
Copy and paste http://tinyurl.com/2gs9mp into your Browser URL box
Hit Submit
Then use the "search" or "find" feature for terms like "Friction Stir" and "fsw"

Educate yourself, then return to us anew. ;-)

Now, how 'bout we talk about something NEW? Isn't that what The Faithful constantly knash their teeth and rend their clothing over? Let's talk about a REAL conspiracy. I mentioned it a bit earlier, only to see an intentional attempt to hijack the subject matter.

You know, the conspiracy where all the other manufacturers limit production? The one where they refuse to build and sell jets because they make more money that way?
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

gunner,

All you did was give us a useless link to a discussion largely about how Cessna didn't want to invest the upfront money it would cost to use friction stir welding. There was no data on FSW utilization in the Eclipse at your link.

So, how about the answers?

Just how few parts are actually friction stir welded in the Eclipse, anyway, Gunner? What's the number? How many rivets saved? How many man hours saved?

Do you know the answers?

Ken

Litigator said...

Ken said: Many here hide behind a moniker. They can't be slapped with a defamation lawsuit. You, OTOH, need to be sure you do not intentionally make untrue factual statements that damage the company.

Interesting point. Even though this may be a blog, it is up to the Administrator/Moderator to provide the editing, keep things civil, and above all keep statements legal. Since this is Stan's blog, and he is the Administrator/Moderator, even statements made by other that are libelous, slanderous, or defamatory and not removed, could be his responsibility. Stan, you up for a lawsuit?

mirage00 said...

Gunner,

Thanks for the ummmmm response? Now can you please answer Ken's question regarding FSW and Eclipse?

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

Ahh, the Brothers Hijack again. Sorry, Ken, you need to click the little "comments" thingies. I think they're called links.

Now how 'bout that Conspiracy of Limited Production, Ken. You've alluded to it more than once. Or is it that The Faithful never want to talk about anything new on this blog. FSW? Been there, done that.

So, just how does Cessna come up with the number of sellers it will turn away each year, Ken? After all, you seem to be quite knowledgeable regarding the way they control the market?

Wannna school us on that a bit more?
Gunner

Gunner said...

Litigator-
I think you're wrong, unless Cubby, Inc. v. CompuServe Inc. and its successors has been overturned.

Stan is not responsible for the posts of anyone but himself. Besides, I highly doubt Eclipse can afford a libel suit with anyone. In order to do that, they'd have to allow discovery to determine if, in fact, they were libeled in the first place. I doubt Eclipse would like to have a defendant attorney looking thru their manufacturing processes, FAA correspondence, vendor communication or Order Book.

Back to Conspiracies, I suggest.
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

litigator,

Well, the discovery might get interesting. Imagine the information one might learn perusing the Eclipse engineering and marketing files. Not to mention Vern's correspondence and financial agreements.

mirage00 said...

So, just how does Cessna come up with the number of sellers it will turn away each year, Ken?

By limiting their production rate? Hardly what I would call a "Conspiracy" as Stan and his followers profess.

con·spir·a·cy (kən-spîr'ə-sē)
n., pl. -cies.
An agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful, or subversive act.
A group of conspirators.
Law. An agreement between two or more persons to commit a crime or accomplish a legal purpose through illegal action.
A joining or acting together, as if by sinister design: a conspiracy of wind and tide that devastated coastal areas.

cj3driver said...

On 8/2 Ken said;

“… CJ, the 40 promised Mustangs ties right into the $10 billion backlog Cessna just reported. That's about a 3-year backlog, largely artifically created by the company to force prices higher... “

The Textron stockholders and the SEC would also be interested in how Ken claims the order book is artificially produced in order to limit production and inflate prices.

I am, ... and so would the contenders for Mr. Pelton's job.

Gunner said...

Thank you, Mirage.

Then you DO charge that Cessna limits its production, just to make more money. That's a bomb-shell for certain.

Tell me this: Why wouldn't one of Cerssna's MANY competitors jump in and fill that unmet demand? Why do they all follow suit and LIMIT PRODUCTION in order to make "more" money? It would seem to me that, if Cessna is leaving $6mm on the table for an unfinished jet, somebody would snatch that up in a heartbeat.

Why don't Auto manufacturers (with about the same number of competitors) do this? Do they lack the aviation decoder ring?

Why not computer manufacturers? Avionics manufacturers?

Gunner

airtaximan said...

Maybe I'm a little slow, but the whole intersection camera thing does not seem to link to the e-clips thing, except for perhaps a propensity for pay-offs.

In any case, I do not think there is a big argument against the fact that FAA inspectors claim there are safety issues related to the e-clips plane not being properly inspected, and they were interfered with in the normal process.

Is there? Formal complaints were filed. There is at least the perception by inspectors that they were not able to do their job.

Who paid who, how much, and really why remains a total mystery.

I'm most concerned with "why"?.

- why would this ever need to occur? If it did.

redtail said...

Gunner said.... Now how 'bout that Conspiracy of....

Ah, yes. Conspiracy. They abound a plenty. Do you mean like the US missile shooting down Flight 800, supported by Pierre Schlesinger? Or, how about the one about where the US Government had planted explosives in the World Trade Centers to bring them down, since Al qaeda had failed to do the job with two aircraft, to give Bush reason to go into Afghanistan and Iraq? Everyone loves a conspiracy. It doesn't make them true.

Gunner said...

Redtail-
Nope, I'm talking about the Conspiracy of Limited Production that has been put forth by your buddies mirage and Ken.

- The one that explains why the EA-50X is "as good as" or "better than" its competitors costing 1.5X the price.

- The one that allows y'all to patronize double digit IQ types with patient explanations of how God's Gift to the Cash Strapped Pilot is gonna allow us all to "go jets" by breaking the stranglehold of "Big Aviation" from the necks of the flying public.

That one, while not nearly as "colorful" as the other Conspiracies you mention, is certainly more appropriate to the topic at hand.

Wanna help Ken and Mirage 'splain it to us?
Gunner

airtaximan said...

regarding the overpricing policy of legacy airplane manufacturers...

YOU MUST BE KIDDING..RIGHT?

Yu fairy tale company e-clips has forward priced it plain based on a fantastic dream about market size... and you actually think this should be the benchmark?

I would caution you all to reflect upon the industry, the number of potential pilots for the 500, the number of real operators that have passed on the plan desite they hype, and the number of orders/options/whatever taken by uncle Ed and his computer system - 1430.

Otherwise, it seems it would be wiser to account for industry ups and downs, residual value realities, insurance, infrustructure for real support, training, quality or the lack thereof and long term business model prospects accounting for all of this, including the fabricated orderbook, and new models obsoleting the older models that were not even finished yet. Also, the affect the singles have on the market.

I think your contention that Cessna pricies their products "improperly" is, well, silly. I think the problem is really how E-clips priced their product, the real marketsize, and how they can ever remain in business.

"hello, Vern... I hear you need MORE money...."

wonderful.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mirage00 said...

Then you DO charge that Cessna limits its production, just to make more money. That's a bomb-shell for certain.

No not at all. I'm just pointing out that their capacity to build the Mustang is maxed out at their current production rate.

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

"No not at all. I'm just pointing out that their capacity to build the Mustang is maxed out at their current production rate."

Now, I'm really confused. So, it's not a conspiracy, it's simply corporate incompetence? From virtually ALL the players except Eclipse?

How do you explain that, Mirage?
Gunner

mouse said...

Rick Adam resigned this morning...

See how they run...

Gunner said...

Mouse-
Something tells me Adam Aircraft may have a set of Investors and Directors with cojones for that to happen.

Adam demonstrates just how tough this business really is and I give them great credit for trying to build a dream, for the most part, the right way.
Gunner

mouse said...

Ken,

Until Eclipse reaches production numbers over 200 there is a time loss for FSW, but you didn't know that did you?

Do you realise that every wingle fairing is still fitted by hand and not with hard tooling. No time savings there, and worse, if you have a fairing that needs to be replaced, it'll be another hand fitting and not an LRU concept.

Too bad for you that good information is wasted on you. Hope you take delivery of your airplane soon so you can see for yourself how far off the story you are being fed.

Vern is a great manipulator, and you my friend are one of his best Charlie McCarthy clones yet..

Looking forward to actual amusement and not all of your virtual fun you have been having. Just remember to look back and understand why it is said, Hindsight is 20/20...

gadfly said...

Stan

There hasn’t been this much panic among the “faithful” since free root canals were offered by the local Dental College by “first year students” without N2O or Novocaine. ‘Seems you touched a few nerves.

“Outsiders” of New Mexico may not understand the political links between the “Red Light Cameras” and the public funds that were channeled to Eclipse . . . and the ongoing history of political corruption in the “Land of Enchantment”.

Carry on. This is one area where “turning on a few lights” in the kitchen creates much activity as “things” run for the dark corners.

gadfly

(Taximan: Later, we’ll get back to your earlier questions about mounting heavy objects at great distances from the CG . . . and rotational momentum. But just now, the present conversation is too good to pass up.)

airtaximan said...

Mirage,

what a rediculous statement - Cessna has maxed out the production of the Mustang..

-so yu mean they should bring on another line, order more parts and get more planes out the door? Why?

-if the wanted to, yu don't think they could?

Why be like Vern and over sell, make no money, and underdeliver? This IS NOT a good idea in anyone's mind, except Vern...

Black Tulip said...

I’m beginning to think my piece on The Faithful forming a political party and running for President may be for real. Karl Marx, their advisor on economics, though long dead is still a force.

“According to Marxism, capitalism is a system based on the exploitation of the proletariat by the bourgeoisie (the ‘capitalists’, who own and control the means of production).”

Workers of the world unite! Capitalist starts with a ‘C’ and so does Cessna! Order an Eclipse and save the world!

Black Tulip

gadfly said...

Dark Blossom

Engels was the real force behind Marx . . . and Engels is spelled with an "E".

gadfly

(Marx' mother said he should stop talking about capitalism and go out and "make some". 'Seems to me that "E" should stop talking about a functioning jet and "make some".)

redtail said...

Gunner said... Adam demonstrates just how tough this business really is and I give them great credit for trying to build a dream, for the most part, the right way.
Gunner

You have got to be kidding! Adam is the originator of over-promising / under-delivering, missed date after missed date, and provisional type certificates. What rock did you just crawl out from under?

Niner Zulu said...

It will be interesting to find out why Rick Adamas is leaving, before the A700 jet is even certified.

The press release reads "We are indebted to his efforts over the past nine years as he grew the company from one employee to over 700 employees currently working at Adam Aircraft. We wish him the best as he pursues his next entrepreneurial adventure."

If I were a position holder, I'd be nervous. Just one more example that there is really NO reason to be a position holder NOW on any VLJ. Cash is king. (I emphasize NOW, because obviously a lot of early Eclipse position holders made money. They also made money in real estate as well. Neither one is a good buy right now, IMHO).

PS Redtail, M00, Ken - why aren't any of you bidding on the auction of Eclipse s/n 38?

redtail said...

Redtail doesn't pay retail

mouse said...

AirTaxi,

So much of the Blakey story involves "the rest of the story..."

The FAA needed a VLJ certified really bad. They came to Adam and asked how soon we could be ready if things were sped up a bit. The FAA had spent so much time and money on something that seemed to be not happening on the promised schedule.

They (FAA) needed those skies darkened to play into the budget hands and forecasts, not to mention the Billions in money spent cerifying, funding (Congress & Senate), making the great controller shortage look like it was caused by these dark-sky VLJ instead of piss-poor planning by the FAA leaders who never even thought of a plan to replace the retiring masses...

It's all pretty simple, and damn sure not a conspiracy, just stupid simple idiots running the program like a kindergarten recess yard...

Gunner said...

Oooh, red, speaking of striking nerves, what's up you sideways? ;-)

Adam has missed, yes. They've been overly confident, yes. But they don't hold a candle to the King of Con.

Personally, I think the styling and features of the Adam Aircraft are outstanding. Unfortunately, like Cessna and Eclipse, the comfort/performance/economy "proposition" never made what we'd all hoped for.

Thus, like Eclipse and Mustang (and Diamond, Cirrus, Embraer, Honda and Epic), there is limited demand for the Adam products. But I give them credit for a bold idea: they knew that a single plane manufacturer can't make the numbers work, so they tried for two with commonality. They got one into production and the other on it's way; for about 1/5 of the investment in Le Petit.

Adam will probably fold or be bought out. You just can't make it in this business with the type of demand they (or Eclipse) is seeing.

Word, man. ;-)
Rich

mouse said...

Gunner,

to the contrary Rick had enough and pulled the trigger. He remained in control of his destiny to the end. He is a great guy, and a great guy to work for. He made a lot of mistakes and it cost lots of time and money, but it was his money to start with ($36M), and his dream.

Too bad the speed (or lack of it) by certain groups of people let the money run out with the project not yet completed (A700). The A500 is still lacking in some key areas, but it should be 100% early next year.

AeroObserver said...

Stan said: "I remain amused by your blind defense of this company. When are they going to let you fly it so you can report to the world, "Mission Accomplished!""

Stan, you've completely lost it now!! Is Alzheimers setting in?? I mean seriously, when have I ever blindly defended Eclipse? I want a specific quote to back this up. I have defended Andrew Broom on occasion, but that was because the schoolyard bullies were beating him up, which was totally uncalled for.

I won't fly the airplane until it's fully complete, with no IOUs remaining. I've flown on board one, but that's about it. It flies very solidly, but that's as much as I'd say. Mission accomplished? I hardly think so...

421Jockey said...

"Too bad the speed (or lack of it) by certain groups of people let the money run out with the project not yet completed (A700). The A500 is still lacking in some key areas, but it should be 100% early next year."

Mouse,

That has to be the most two faced comment I have seen yet. And that is quite a statement on this blog!

What has Vern done to piss you off so bad that you wil crucify him at any chance, while Adam gets a break that it is ok to finish an airplane "next year" with more IOU's than Eclipse can imagine.

I, like EO, am very amused.

WhyTech said...

gunner said:

"Something tells me Adam Aircraft may have a set of Investors and Directors with cojones for that to happen."

Now if only the E-clips Board could demonstrate the same testicular fortitude.

WT

Stan Blankenship said...

AeroObserver said...

Stan, you've completely lost it now!! Is Alzheimers setting in?? I mean seriously, when have I ever blindly defended Eclipse?

AO - Are you asking the question as AeroObserver or Jim Capt. Zoom Campbell?

Gunner said...

421-
I can't speak for mouse but for my own part, my willingness to cut Adam some slack hopefully demonstrates that I'm not hardwired for attack on these companies.

I followed and talked with Adam Aircraft for about two years, up until the end of '06, regarding purchase of a A-700. Yes, they were overly optimistic as every single entry to this market is; the planes will not fly as fast as they hoped, be as light as they hoped, be as efficient as they hoped, be as inexpensive as they hoped or be delivered when they had hoped.

But the company has never handed me excuses; never knowingly lied to me; never blamed a vendor; never trashed a competitor. As has been stated, Rick Adam put case money into his dream (a LOT of it). And, now, in the interest of the company he's stepping aside; with or without Board pressure matters not- it speaks of a company attempting to build aircraft, not personal legend.

Eclipse doesn't get the pass that Adam gets because Eclipse is the only aircraft in history that somehow gets "better" every time they trip. The company gives "hype" a whole new meaning.

YMMV
Gunner

gadfly said...

Gunner

You are so correct!

Over the years, I’ve worked with many people who had “big ideas”, and we worked as a “team” to make their dream come true. Many failed, but not for lack of trying. And certainly not for lack of true honest effort. When they failed, we both suffered, but could look each other in the eye, and say, “We gave it our best effort!”

But everything about the “Paper Clips” has a bad smell to it . . . even their political connections do not have good connotations. I just spoke (minutes ago) with our own book keeper . . . asking him his impressions of the company in question. He said that when he saw their relationship with “Marty Chavez” (mayor) and “Bill Richardson”, they decided to stay clear.

Our own successes are probably “one in five”, but that is enough! And we sleep well.

gadfly

airtaximan said...

Mouse,

Again, if I'm missing something on the suplemental TC and the govenment influence, sorry. I honestly have not seen anything here that is worthy of specific accusations against anyone...

The fact there is a grievance regarding the inability of inspectors to do their jobs properly speaks for itself. If anyone has anything specific regarding who pushed who from high up, it would be a great time to enlighten everyone.

The grievance is a big enough problem.... it can be dismissed by anyone, so much here has been dismissed and rationalized away. The grievance is a big deal, and there are many implications. The faithful/die-hards will dismiss them all.

The federal govenment has spent hundreds of millions of dollars since the 1990's on programs related to these little planes, with zero to show for it, except problems. I somehow doubt that anyone who knew what has been spent frivolously resulted in planes creating all sorts of problems for the FAA and airspace (blackening the skies) would push for further "progress" with these little planes. But then again, I have no clue who knows what... just that there is currently a lot of people asking what happend with all this money? Where did it go? Why did we get involved?

E-clips has been the poster-child for most of these programs... from those who arranged for the money, from Congress.

I guess they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If the e-500 is dead, they funded all these programs for nothing... if its not (hey, they received the PTC, TC, PC), they funded these programs which will result in the skies being darkened...and all the air traffic problems that go with it!

OH, now I see, the red-light-cameras... they look to be about 10 ft off the ground - look out MOller...

redtail said...

Gunner said... I give them credit for a bold idea: they knew that a single plane manufacturer can't make the numbers work, so they tried for two with commonality. They got one into production and the other on it's way; for about 1/5 of the investment in Le Petit.

Gunner, you're as misinformed as you are misguided. The financial investment of Adam was being raised tit-for-tat along side of Eclipse. By my last count they have spent over $600M, and still have little to show for it. Granted, they cannot compete with the check writing skills of Eclipse.

mouse said...

The only thing Cessna is maxed out on is markey smarts. They build as many as their quality control, sales, and service teams can handle without stressing the system. And also enough so that those who can't quite decide on which model to buy might just go ahead and upsell themselves rather than wait for the lower cost plane.

Most Cessna owners don't keep their airplanes to terribly long, they trade them up for the next model.

Knowing when to fire a customer, or when to not overload production is pretty smart, amazing what those dinosaurs learned...

I guess none of you ever had or were teenagers... Amazing how at 12 yrs old your parents knew nothing, at 16 you knew everything, and at 22 you wondered how your parents got so smart in just 10 years... Experience is a good thing... if you learn from it!

mouse said...

Redtail, your cheeks must be red too... You are so far out of reality with the investment at Adam. It didn't go over $250M until this spring... Now I see why your a big fan of the Eclipse 500... you have no sense of numbers... Let me guess, your an aeronautic engineer, aren't you?

bill e. goat said...

Interesting to note the vigorous response this thread has evoked.

Unusually, the "bashers" are the ones proposing somewhat tentative positions.

Not this time. ANYONE who defends the faux cert, is WRONG.
-------------------------

I'd put the motivations behind the "Blakey certification" as:

a) 50% Save her job from the diseased piece of human excrement called Pete Domenici.

b) 30 % effort to increase funding to modernize the FAA's "conventional" ATC (non-"highway in the sky"). Um, make that modernize it again, after several failed efforts.

c) 20 % effort to increase funding for the FAA/NASA "pie in the sky" (aerial highway system).
--------------------------

a) Diseased Peter Domenici:
Normally, I hesitate before condemning a public official, and then not condemn the person, just the performance of their dutie. But in the case of Diseased Pete, I have NO RESERVATION WHATSOEVER. I would even put Vern's ethics an order of magnitude above this sick turd. More below.

b) FAA needs bucks to upgrade infrastructure. (My, isn't that a timely topic- I hope not just a trendy topic). The only way things get done nowadays, is to create a crisis. Lots of VLJ's buzzing around will tax the ATC's, so we need lots of money to fix the system.

Marion: Vern, I need a case for ATC modernization, you need a TC- let's make a deal.

c) FAA has a noble idea, okay, even I concede it's well intended, to do the "highway in the sky" thing. Not going to happen for years, if ever. But, more VLJ's will promote the concept (a little, maybe, to some).
---------------------------

Marion being involved in the traffic camera thing, well, that certainly didn't hurt anything. I don't know if it had too much influence, but it does present an unseemly coincidence.

Anyone who says lets just talk about airplanes, well, that's a nice sentiment, and I enjoy the discussions on those. But what intrigues me about Eclipse isn't the technical aspects of the airplane- it's a CONVENTIONAL airplane (as much as Vern would like to pretend otherwise).

What IS radically unconventional, is the nut-case economics, and equally nut-case mismanagement. Critics of this blog are being deliberately simplistic or determinedly uninterested if they chose to ignore the stunningly preposterous aberrant spectacle that Eclipse manages to creatively and continually supply us with.

While I don't particularly endorse the argument that Marion was influenced by traffic camera sales, it is the public duty of good citizens to consider what factors are in play when things are done by "executive order" rather than due process.

It is equally incumbent upon an informed citizenry to make inquiry regarding potential conflicts of interest of our public servants when things appear irregular, particularly when public safety is at stake.

This discussion has shaken the trees, and some pretty good tidbits have come out (thank you once again to Mouse), which have helped me piece together what I think is the truth behind the FAA certification fiasco of 2006.

I would point out, these lively discussions do create some spurious leads, but more often than not, the truth emerges- not only for this thread, but many others I have read here.
--------------------------

Diseased Pete:
(from Wikipedia- yeah, smart asses, laugh like you know better):

"Prior to the 2006 midterm election Domenici called and pressured then-United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico David Iglesias to speed up indictments in a federal corruption investigation that involved at least one former Democratic state senator.

"When Iglesias said an indictment wouldn't be handed down until at least December, Domenici said "I'm very sorry to hear that" — and the line went dead. Iglesias was fired one week later by the Bush Administration... According to the Justice Department, Domenici called the Department and demanded Iglesias be replaced on four occasions".
----------------------------

"The grassroots organization Republicans for Environmental Protection singled out Domenici as “Worst in the Senate in 2006” on environmental issues".

"Domenici is an avid proponent of nuclear power and has published two books on the subject: "A Brighter Tomorrow: Fulfilling the Promise of Nuclear Energy" ...and "Advanced Nuclear Technologies"

After the corruption of due process in the Eclipse matter, this is just the guy we want pulling strings to get nuclear power plants and waste storage facilities "certified", right?
----------------------------

And by the way, I'm pro-nuclear.

I'm also pro-reality.

Companies WILL take shortcuts. Actually, companies don't; people do. Out of fear, or greed. I believe it was not greed in Marion's case. In diseased Peter's case, it was greed- the lust for power, which created the need for votes (create a "certified" airplane, create an airplane factory, create jobs, create voters).

Diseased Pete: Vern, I need voters, you need employees- let's make a deal.
---------------------------

Diseased Pete:
"Domenici is the fifth-most senior sitting Senator and second-most senior sitting Republican".

Power corrupts. Time to flush the toilet on this POS- can anyone say term limits? (or special prosecutor?).

Ken Meyer said...

I see Gunner never answered the questions--and he's bitterly complained in the past whenever folks didn't respond to his interrogatories.

Turnabout is fair play, so let's ask it again:

Just how few parts are actually friction stir welded in the Eclipse, anyway, Gunner? What's the number? How many rivets saved? How many man hours saved?

Gunner said, "we learned how few parts are actually stir-fried." I say, defend your statement if you can--tell us how many parts are friction stir welded in the Eclipse. If you can't, be a man and admit you were wrong. Withdraw your incorrect statement if you cannot defend it.

Ken

cj3driver said...

DayJet just announced another $140 million in debt financing closed, bringing the total to date at $200 million dollars. The release mentions the funding includes senior debt on the aircraft and financing of the pre-delivery deposits.

“Securing this initial debt facility is a significant milestone for DayJet, as it enables us to continue the uninterrupted growth of the world’s first commercial VLJ fleet,” said Ed Iacobucci, DayJet president and CEO. “This new fleet, in combination with our continued success in recruiting and training a team of exceptional aviation professionals, keeps DayJet on target to launch commercial operations in the coming weeks.”

Niner Zulu said...

Stan you really got the old adrenalin pumping with that post! Better than a triple shot venti latte extra hot with a side of viagra.

Carry on with WWIII, everyone

;-)

Six Romeo said...

Ken, thanks for the definition of dork. It certainly makes reading this blog more interesting. I would have to agree with Mouse’s assertion (using your chosen definition) especially when it comes to social skills.

You seem to get absolutely nothing from reading this blog, nor do you add anything of substance to it. You simply regurgitate the PR from Eclipse. If I want to hear what Eclipse has to say, I’ll read what their spokes-holes are telling us.

Your time might be better spent with Shari planning for Oregon next year, and less time crying about ad hominem attacks.

Better yet, why don’t you start your own blog?

Diamond Aircraft Critic, Gunner Critic, Citation Envy, Surgery to Single Pilot Jets, Ode to Vern and Peg…

Maybe you could start campaigning for a Richardson/Raburn ticket.

Mouse said it best when he said, “…shut up…” Move on, find something better to do. Think about all of the fun you’ll have in your first jet, or by the time you get it, your second jet? Give it a rest. Have fun, but please pause your parsing party.

fred said...

ken , i am sorry to jump-in but to say gunner didn't answer is a bit awkward ...

DID YOU ? if you are so sure he is wrong , why not share with us some of your vast knoledge of "integrated production" ???

you are a surgeon (no?) so you are a scientist , no?

so remenber a bit your training hours ...

you probably had a mentor telling you :"if something is true , it is from all angles ..."

stating something is untrue can be done ONLY by demonstrating WHY it is untrue ...
(Ie: if gunner is wrong , where are the datas prooving him wrong , if you have none = it's ONLY beliefs against others beliefs !)

remenber : for centuries , doctors said Heart was the center of all emotions ....!!

as an analyst , i would say FSW may proove to be good if production were in large numbers ...

just a very few in a month doesn't make any difference !

if the production is getting on a large scale = may be ...

but then , there is a problem : as you may know , a chain is worth (in strength) only what's worth the weakest point ...

EA is not manufacturing anything , just do assembling parts from others firms ...

so the question (the XXX M$ one) is : How long a furnisher is going to accept to give stuff to EA without being paid ??

as you also know , the Bizzplan is build on large numbers produced , in order to minimize costs and there , may be , FSW may have a role to play ...

but still , LARGE NUMBERS ARE TO BE PRODUCED FIRST !

which in the case of E500 means : rock-solid finances (in order to be able to reach profitability while paying furnishers and paying employees , etc...) and an order-book full to the top , at least at profitability point (otherwise = all your efforts are going to be wasted ...)

you see everything is linked ...

so FSW may be a good way to build ( thru a few PhD's have lots of doubts about it ) but it's ONLY a fraction of the big-picture ...!!

cj3driver said...

Artificial orderbook – limited production

Ken,

How many more CJ’s do you think Cessna would sell if they lowered the price by $1 million dollars?

10% .. 20%?

How many more if they lowered the price by $2 million?

30% .. 40%?

How about if they lowerd the price of a Citation X by 4 million. Would sales double?

I think not, since this would increase sales by only tens of units, and not hundreds, or thousands. And Cessna would be left selling planes at a loss give an overall profit last year of less than 20% of sales. And, as we all know, the last few years have been exceptional for GA manufacturers.

In the case of the Mustang. There are just not that many qualified individuals in the owner-flown market to fill that kind of demand. Mustang (and Eclipse) back-orders are just a function of pre-sales over a period of 5-7 years. In Cessna’s case 5 years of pre-selling. 400 planes divided by five years is still only 80 per year average. Cessna claims ultimate production rates of 150 per year. Once the backlog is filled, even that rate seems optimistic. However, with Cessna’s pricing, they could probably drop to 100 per year and still make a profit.

With Eclipse, the claimed 800 owner/operators divided by seven years is still just over 100 per year. And most of those sales were years ago, when the promise was for a “sub $1 million dollar jet”. Many positions are owned by speculators, and by individuals who have old, lower pricing, and multiple slots. How many new units have been sold, now that the price is closer to $2 million. Very few I bet.

Most of the “in production” aircraft at Cessna are 2-3 years backlogged. Given that it takes Cessna about 9 months to order, spec, build and deliver a new CJ, a two year backlog isn’t really that far out, and certainly not enough justify the added infrastructure and ramp-up to double or triple output at the factory at this point.

In 2003 you could pretty much take your pick of “in production” Citation models with very little wait. With jet volume at 195 planes, there was relatively little profit for Cessna that year. By the end of this year, Cessna will have doubled its output since then…

Hardly a production - orderbook charade.

frederick ,j.p.h.b. said...

yes !! cj3driver ...!

this is one of the limitation of the capilistic system ...

to have money to build and devellop = you have to have investors = you have to give them something for theirs $$$, at the same time , to be able to give back $$$ to investors = you MUST have profit , which are paid by customers ...

but if prices are too high = you have not enough customers to reach profitability , if not the investors may be foolish enough to be proud of being with you , but only for a while (remenber dot.com ?)

it is more a question of finding the right equilibrum ...!

so to have the team for managing this very dificult momentum when you try to reach for balance ...

the right question should "is there anybody like that in E.A or in Textron?"

fred said...

BTW ...

some peoples seems to be over-stupid !!

just had a look on E500/sn038 auction-bid : i wonder why someone has been stupid enough to put a +20.000$ on a bid being as flat and dead as a skeleton in arizona desert ...!

off-course , if it is only an attemp to show that some are willing to put the tag on 20.000$ per new bid , otherwise iy doesn't make any sens ...

with such a big huge success on bidding = 2$ would have been enough
!!!

remind me of a friend of mine (stocksbrokker) comments : " for some of us , the job consist mainly of departing some smart-ass from their money ..."

WhyTech said...

goat said:

"stunningly preposterous aberrant spectacle that Eclipse manages to creatively and continually supply us with."

Ptetty much says it all.

WT

airsafetyman said...

Well, Mirage 00, I have seen law firms sucessfully go after individual mechanics, FBOs, engine manufacturers, airframe manufacturers, and ,most definitely, the FAA. In the case of Eclipse you have a large group of professional FAA inspectors thoroughly angry at the political influence involved in preventing them from doing their jobs. You think they would not be more than glad to give depositions? When the grown-ups at the FAA finally reassume command and pull the Type Certificate (and I have seen that also) I hope you will remain amused.

Gunner said...

Apparently The Faithful prefer to talk only about "tomorrow". After all, the past is not a pretty one:
- Failure on failure to accomplish goals on time or in substance

- Lie upon lie as excuse for failure

- Vendor after vendor "exposed" for not being up to Eclipse standards

- Government agencies granting money, loaning money, investing money, providing Provisional certs to enable the take-down of yet more (private) money

- Government agencies cutting inspection corners and "working" holidays to enable the take-down of still MORE money

Nope, they'd rather talk about what their favorite finished jet can do, when it's finished and when BCA stops making simultaneous errors in favor of Mustang and against Eclipse.

When we start to question the basic underpinnings of the Eclipse business model- how the company can possibly produce an equivalent jet at 60% of the price of a known manufacturer- they glibly lecture that all the other manufacturers, thru greed or incompetence, conspire to hold aircraft prices artificially high.

But when questioned on that theory, which cuts to the very heart of of Eclipse viability, they want to argue whether Stir Fry Welding replaces 12% or 14.264735% of the rivets on the EA-50X.

And then they whine about how little "substance" they see on this Blog.

Amusing? Perhaps. Sad? Most definitely.
Gunner

bill e. goat said...

CJ3Driver,
I concur with your assessment of Cessna's volume and pricing strategy of Mustang, 100%.

Cessna could pump up production to 300 planes per year, but that would exhaust the pipeline in 2 or 3 years, and then it would be time for more R&D dollars for a replacement. It is better to maintain a more tempered volume, over a longer period, at a higher profit margin.

I know supply and demand are not a linear relationship, but using approximations, consider: if Cessna delivers Mustang for $3M and 200 units per year, I would expect the proper market placement for Eclipse and the E-500 to be $2M and 300 units per year.

That is why I do not expect Eclipse production of E-500 to EVER exceed 350 per year. There is a backlog of customers, but not an influx of new customers to warrant high volume production.

I think it IS well worth $2M, at least by comparison, once it is finished. (At $1.5M it is a bargain, but I guess some of the product immaturity and limited support for a while is part of the deal. Still, a good deal I think).
----------------------------
(I suppose high volume, even if only for a few years, would drive down unit cost, and hence more per-unit profit. But that would also exhaust the pipeline of new customers. The only way this would be advantageous for Eclipse is if they are afraid of loosing sales to a competitor- which for a twin jet, it looks like they have this price-point niche sewn up, so no worries there.

But if they are afraid they will lose sales to lower-cost single-engine jets- a valid worry- they are caught on the horns of a dilemma here: loose E-500 sales to a competitor's (or their own) single engine, or keep the sales price low enough to compete with the singles, in which case they MUST have high volume production to stay profitable- and I'd say this would be around 1000 per year. And THAT ain't gonna happen.

So, it's a given they are going to lose E-500 sales to a single, so it might as well be their own. If enough components are common, then there will be production cost benefits for both models. By the time the single is ready to go, I'd say E-500 production will have peaked (probably three years from now), and the yearly deliveries will stabilize as E-500 sales wane and the single comes on-line.

Max yearly combined volume for BOTH models? Well if Cirrus is delivering $0.3M airplanes at what, 700 per year? So I wouldn't expect more than 400 or so Eclipse yearly deliveries for selections in the $1.2-2.0M range.

Speculation for entertainment purposes only.

AeroObserver said...

Stan said: "Are you asking the question as AeroObserver or Jim Capt. Zoom Campbell?"

I'm posting as AeroObserver. I'm not Jim Campbell, nor do I really like the man. Try again.

redtail said...

Stan, If you would pay attention to your own blog you would know that aeroobserver is based in Florida, works for a different publication than ANN, is not Jim Campbell, and he did give his real name had you followed the links he provided to the blog.

bill e. goat said...

Stan-
Shame on you, you silly boy!
With hundreds of hits per day, and thousands of posts per month, can't you keep anything straight!
:)

airtaximan said...

there is a MUCH bigger market for $300k planes than for $1 million or $1.5 million planes.

The I'll take what I can get wears a little thin for guys with enough money to choose... so the $2.5 million planes start looking good to even those who would be "willing" to pay $1.5.

Once you begin to consider profressionally flown planes, the cost of the pilot(s) and all the rest of it basically makes a $1.5 million plane look a little silly... especially given payload, range etc... limitations and the risk of a "new" company...

IMHO

Ken Meyer said...

Facts ladies and gentlemen--

Sometimes facts validate opinions. Other times they disprove them.

Gunner and others have shared their opinion that friction stir welding isn't actually used much in the Eclipse 500. His theory goes something like this: "it isn't used much; therefore it wasn't important; it was all for show so they could get investors onboard."

But those pesky little facts don't go along with his opinion. Gunner didn't know how much friction stir welding is used in the airframe, but Oliver Masefield does:

There are actually 442 linear feet of friction stir welds in the Eclipse 500! Dr. Masefield reports that the use of friction stir welding reduces assembly time by about a thousand hours!

Gunner tells us "the FSW economic argument died when we learned how few parts are actually stir-fried" but the facts, ladies and gentlemen, tell us something else.

Facts...those pesky little things naysayers wish didn't exist.

Ken

Stan Blankenship said...

Ken,

442 feet = 5,304 inches

assuming a one inch rivet spacing.

Oliver's 442 feet of friction stirred welds is replacing 5,304 rivets.

1,000 hours = 60,000 minutes

60,000 divided by 5,304 = 11.3 minutes per rivet.

It doesn't take 11.3 minutes to drill a hole, countersink, deburr and drive a rivet.

Oliver's claim is bogus.

Black Tulip said...

Ken,

Friction Stir Welding?

Immaculate Conception?

Divine Intervention?

They are equally relevant to Eclipse now. Let the company get a handful of aircraft flying without undue limitations. Then we can marvel over how little it costs to produce.

Black Tulip

Gunner said...

Ken-
Like I said, the FSW economic argument died when we learned how few parts are actually stir-fried.

Did you want to reopen this issue and school us on how many hundreds of thousands it saves on each little jet? How it explains the "value proposition"? Have at it...please do teach us about "the beauty of it" (FSW).

Barring that, I guess you don't have much of substance to add to the subject of FSW. In which case, how 'bout we return to your economic treatise on the way in which Big Aviation "artificially" maintains high prices on aircraft. Do they meet and set these prices and allocations like OPEC? Is it done by email, text message, carrier pigeon, or what?

Since they stopped touting The Myth Of FSW, this is the ONLY argument Eclipse has left for why you can buy a "better" plane than a Mustang for 60% of the price.
Gunner

WhyTech said...

ATM said:

"there is a MUCH bigger market for $300k planes than for $1 million or $1.5 million planes."

No debate about this, at least from me. One related issue, however, that cuts through all the discussions of market size: the number of GA acft on the FAA registry and the number of pilots on the FAA registry has been trending downward for years, even with many "exciting" new aircraft introductions. While some segments of the acft market can be growing while the total market declines, overall this trend does not suggest that "new technology" is pulling in large numbers of new owner/pilots who increase the total market size. Despite any current or near-term tehnological advances, flying remains expensive and demands a level of knowledge and skill that most are not going to make the effort to acquire, especially given the limited utility of "affordable" acft. It would seem that the long-term trend, at least in the owner/pilot market, is in the opposite direction of darkening skies.


WT

fred said...

stan ..

this is the beauty of the thing ...

as for rivet E.A. demonstrate that they have a much slower rate of building (11 + mn per rivet ??? the airbus plant not far from here is said (from a friend working there ) to have a "rivet speed" of 1 every 52 seconds ...)

so after that they proclame to have "improved " the work by a few thousands per cent , champagne for every one and dances around fires ... all night long ....!!

but the reality is they are still short on other's productivity by "some" others thousands per cent ...:-)))

JetProp Jockey said...

If we assume that FSW acually saves 1000 hours in assembly, and that the direct cost of those 1000 hours is $40/hour, the savings per aircraft is $40,000. Don't try to use the fully absorbed rate of $200 per hour, because overhaed does not go down as a result of using FSW. (The actual cost per hour of assembly labor with benefits and taxes is probably closer to $30/hour)

From the actual savings in assumbly, you must deduct the labor and burden of the FSW operation - maybe $10,000 per copy, but for argument sake, call it free.

A $40,000 savings does not make the plane profitable at $1.6 or $1.6.

My opinion is that even if there is 1000 reduction is assembly, the net savings is at most $20,000 per aircraft.

fred said...

whytech ...

yes , i agree 1000% !

to fly your own jet is so expensive , with the fuel costs going to be upward priced till there is no more oil is going to be one problem

an other one is going to be ageing : when i was young (i am nearly 50) in my school days , others were jealous because i had many trip onboard planes were the others pupils didn't even know what it was ....

now , it became so common , i think some school kids may have never been on a plane ...(at least in west germany...)

so it's nothing special anymore ...!


so the

fred said...

EO ...

yes , seems quite funny : the bid finish in 3 days or later (wonder what's that means ???)

how come (in the case there is no minimum bet ....sorry bid !) it come out of 2 bid of 20.000 ??

you can find cheaper on the net , why taking part in an auction ??

some people want that much to spend more money for the same product ???

one advice : when you drink a coffe , if the coffe is disgusting , never offer more money ...
it's not going to make it better ...! :-)))

Ken Meyer said...

stan wrote,

"It doesn't take 11.3 minutes to drill a hole, countersink, deburr and drive a rivet."

You're assuming the entire labor savings is in riveting. I suspect the savings is also in sequencing, redos, and and number of other areas.

Dr. Masefield says your rivet number is wrong, too. His count is over 7400.

"Oliver's claim is bogus."

You saying Dr. Masefield lied? He's a well-respected aircraft design engineer and aerodynamacist. You probably know, but the others may not, that he was largely responsible for the PC-12 program at Pilatus before coming to Eclipse. I really don't think a guy like that lies about the number of rivets his design would use ;-)

Four hundred and forty-two feet and a thousand man-hours. It's not insignificant. What is significant is that for months this blog has been misleading people about the role of friction stir welding and the other advances Eclipse Aviation has made.

What is significant is that this blog has been reduced to a discussion of traffic lights to try to make its case while airplanes roll off the line to happy customers who are flying them. That's significant.

I think more and more people now see why Mirage00 is so amused when he reads this blog.

Ken

Gunner said...

JPJ-
Now let's add in the incremental capital costs of the equipment, the licensing fees and the fact that FSW errors are much more costly to correct than rivets. Also query whether it takes more operators to manage a Stir Fry Weld line than a rivet line.

Gunner

fred said...

ken ...

"#What is significant is that for months this blog has been misleading people about the role of friction stir welding and the other advances Eclipse Aviation has made.#"

you should have written :

"Eclipse Aviation is supposed to have made"

as anything new or "disruptive" only time will proove that system to be worth or not ...

don't forget that one of the crucial point why EASA is not in a hurry to certify E500 IS known problems with FSW ....

Stan Blankenship said...

Ken,

OK, we use Olivers numbers.

60,000 minutes divided by 7,400 rivets = 8.11 minutes per rivet

BTW his spacing = .72"

fred said...

0.72 in between 2 rivet ??? (18 millimeters ??!!)

suddenly , i am not sure anymore if i would like to fly in piece of embroidery ... ! :-)))

cj3driver said...

Fred,
too funny

airtaximan said...

as I have always suspected...

the thinned skins are actually used to hold the rivets together!

if you think about the solution for the window cracking... increase the number of rivets... this is not such an absurd statement.

redtail said...

JetProp Jockey said...
If we assume that FSW acually saves 1000 hours in assembly, and that the direct cost of those 1000 hours is $40/hour,

You also have to consider the overhead of that aircraft sitting in the jigs and on the floor for the additional 1000 hours. That number is probably more considerable than the actual labor savings.

Niner Zulu said...

During my tour of the Eclipse factory, I never saw the FSW machine working. It was going to be "fired up later" for some investors to watch.

I got the distinct impression that it was a PR gimmick. As far as the accounting goes - it's not hard to manipulate the numbers to show how using FSW "saves" money.

Ken, don't be SO gullible! You shouldn't believe anything from anyone trying to sell you something - whether it be Eclipse or one of their competitors bad mouthing the Eclipse. Money taints everything.

Well, it really doesn't matter. Either way Ecllpse better blow the dust off 'ol Betsy and fire it up and start stir-frying some fuselages because didn't Peg Billison said Eclipse would be delivering 1 jet per day in August? Does anyone know if this is really happening or was that just PR fiction for Oshkosh?

Stan Blankenship said...

NZ,

FlightCenter is traveling during the month of August and did not think he would have time to update his delivery charts.

cj3driver said...

Redtail said;

“…You also have to consider the overhead of that aircraft sitting in the jigs and on the floor for the additional 1000 hours. That number is probably more considerable than the actual labor savings..."

Redtail,

I think you have solved Eclipse’s production problems. … They should have planned for more than one person at a time working on the production floor.

Gunner said...

cj-
Now THAT'S funny.
You gotta know that's funny!
Gunner

cj3driver said...

Eclipse needs to shorten the auction time to less than 3 days if they are going to keep their commitment to sell 40 of the first 200 aircraft through the bidders club. If they keep the auction at 10 days, there will only be 12 planes to choose from this year.
... Unless they decide to auction more than one at a time! ... a little disruptive, but hey... mayber they are planning a big year end auction!

or ... maybe they really dont think 200 planes this year is realistic.

EclipseOwner387 said...

Stan,

FYI: Eclipse customer care has sent me an email confirming the AeroMods have been Certified. The Cert was official July 30, 2007 according to customer care. So we can check one off the list. I know you were still in doubt of this achievement. Now we just have to wait and see if it performs as advertised.

Stan Blankenship said...

EO,

Thanks. Strange though, Eclipse did not issue a press release.

HotDog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

HotDog said:
"but what do you expect, this is a cheap jet and you get what you pay for in life."

Welcome, HotDog and thanks for the insight and validation of Mouse's comments. Unfortunately, you're soon to be discredited as a Troll, a disgruntled vendor or even someone not in the know. You'll also be baited to reveal who you work for. But that goes with the territory when you don't quote the Eclipse Party Line.

Corporate culture comes from the Top. The best headline Eclipse employees, investors and depositors and General Aviation might hope for is "Vern Raburn Ousted by Board". At least Rick Adam knew when it was time to make a graceful exit.

Finally, I'd like to thank you for disputing The Conspiracy of Limited Production that's been bandied about here. Somehow, getting all those dinosaur companies to agree to production quotas seemed a bit far fetched to me.

Now, cover your six.

Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

Welcome Hot Dog,

Thanks for your insights.

HotDog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AeroObserver said...

Finally, someone with something substantial to say -- thanks hotdog. And it took ONLY 126 comments to get to this point in this thread -- that's got to be some kind of record...

hummer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

Hotdog-

Issues including the Order Book (sales), Certifications (practical utility), Performance (economics of ownership), AvioNG (corporate ability) are all valid subjects when discussing any new aircraft; especially when the company promotes a one-sided story on any of these points.

I read your point as, "without cash flow all those items are relegated to Wish List and will never matter anyway". And (assuming I'm interpreting you correctly), I agree. But, if things were really that tense for Eclipse, cash flow is (and should be) the Company's highest priority; as interested followers, we have the ability to continue to look at (and debate) ALL the obstacles standing between them and LONG TERM viability.

And that is as it should be.
Gunner

cj3driver said...

Hotdog said;

“… They need cash flow to stay in business. Without cash the other items mean nothing…”

Hotdog,

Thanks for your comments from a vendor perspective.

Are you in a position to make an assessment of hard costs and current cash flow? With the recent announcements of cash infusions by both Eclipse and DayJet, it would seem the short term thirst for cash should be quenched. I am interested in your opinion of the long term business model … low price, high volume claim. Does your company agree with this business plan?

Continuing to take deposits, incur more debt, and making deliveries at a (loss?), while helpful for cash flow, doesn’t bode well for long term viability.

cj3driver said...

sorry gunner ... missed your last post.

gadfly said...

It’s an old sticking point with me, but I think it is important.

The old saying is: “You get what you pay for.”

But that is emphatically not true.

The saying is more correctly: “You pay for what you get.”

Illustration: The “Eclipse” was promised to meet many things . . . time and much confusion clouds the list, but basically, the little jet was supposed to fly at 41,000 feet, carry six people (170 lbs x 6 = 1, 020 pounds), for over 1,100 nautical miles, at 370 KTAS. It was also claimed to be an “air-taxi”, etc. And the instrument panels, etc., would revolutionize everything that had proceeded it, at least in the general aviation category. And, above all, it would provide a “twin engine jet aircraft” to those who could not “just now” afford a dinosaur.

The “customer” probably didn’t care much how it was accomplished . . . bamboo and bubble gum, covered with foil . . . who cares, as long as it did what it claimed to do.

Regardless of on which side you argue the points, the “paper jet” is not a reality. It is a great promise. It actually flies . . . as I have seen it overhead on occasion, during VFR conditions, during the day.

But to this day, it does not meet the promises made “not long ago”. Should the “faithful” hang in there to the end, they will, indeed, prove the saying (revised), “You will, indeed, pay for what you get . . . with interest.”

gadfly

(And thank you, “Hot Dog”, for your excellent comments. Early on, we decided to “stand clear”, and not pursue the possible “benefits” (it’s OK to chuckle at this point) of dealing with Eclipse. By that time, we had learned enough. We remain an anonymous "might have been vendor that decided to sit this one out".)

HotDog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

HD-
Stick around. You can do much toward keeping us ALL in line. Appreciate the candor and the impartiality.
Gunner

AlexA said...

WAY TOO MUCH ENERGY WASTED ON THIS BLOG.
It’s obvious that out of the regular 20 or so contributors we have experts on almost everything, just take a look at the postings.

IPOs-check
Fund raising-check
Manufacturing-check
Production-check
Aeronautical Design-check
Corporate Integrity-check
Pilotage-check
Marketing-check
FAA Oversight-check
Vendor relationship-check
Aircraft Operating Cost-check
Market Viability-check
Avionics-check
Training-check
AirTaxi-check
Amusement-check (something to do while we wait for the FAA)

Heck this Blog even has some individuals that are experts on all the above. So here is the idea…let’s get together in the cozy restaurant by Gunner’s office and put our money in a pot (I figure $100 a piece should do it) and we start Reality Aviation.

Just in case it takes longer than we anticipate we can have Stan create our own traffic cam after he finishes the airframe;)

gadfly said...

Alex

And if an Eclipse becomes a "lawn dart", is the "pot" given to the widow?

In other words, what is your point?

gadfly

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

On a side note, ISSC bounced up 4 points today on absolutely zero news. My guess: a whole lot of stock got shorted when the company rode the Eclipse Wave to $29. At $15.5 a lot of those shorts got covered, and a LOT of money was made.

Of course, for every winner, there's a loser. ISSC is in for a bumpy roller coaster ride these next six months. Well worth keeping an eye on.
Gunner

WhyTech said...

alexa said:

"It’s obvious that out of the regular 20 or so contributors we have experts on almost everything,"

Great to see the faithful finally acknowedging this. I have met some of these 20 and they are, indeed, experts. That's why I keep coming back.

WT

WhyTech said...

gunner said:

"ISSC is in for a bumpy roller coaster ride"

This is a tiny, troubled company. I was considering installing their STC'd displays in my PC-12 until I did the financial diligence. Spend 10 minutes reviewing ISSC financial statements, etc. Like E-clips, they may pull it out of the fire, but I dont want to spend $200k on equipment that has a better chance of being orphaned.

WT