Wednesday, August 22, 2007



REPORT FROM THE FRONT – August 22, 2007

Intense fighting broke out in the Blogosphere last night as Eclipse Aviation Critic erupted in violence. The virtual battleground has been relatively quiet for weeks but that changed early in the evening.


The opponents, known as the Faithful and the Naysayers, have been circling each other for weeks looking for an advantage.


The Faithful had been re-supplied lately with small arms ammunition and retreated to well-guarded defensive positions in the hills.


The Naysayers have received little battlefield intelligence lately and were waiting to mount a fresh assault based on facts.


Both sides are worried that another generation could come and go and, as in Ireland and the Middle East, no one could remember why they were fighting.

The calm was broken mid-evening as the Faithful brought out a new weapon. It had been little used in the past as it raised questions about battleground ethics… conventional light weapons versus tactical nuclear devices.


Called Google, the virtual weapon brings in factors unrelated to the regional and ethnic conflict that has raged between the Faithful and the Naysayers. Some believe the Faithful’s leader felt cornered and called in a Google strike.

This war correspondent cautions the reader, “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.” The virtual battlefield is relatively quiet this morning as both sides move to re-supply.


In case a Google strike is called in on this correspondent, I will concede that I don’t always return the toilet seat to the lowered position around the house. However I believe this to be outside the scope of the dispute.

Black Tulip


The tulip mania peaked in the Netherlands during the 1630s. The black tulip was the most sought after, until found to be biologically impossible.

338 comments:

1 – 200 of 338   Newer›   Newest»
mirage00 said...

Was it, perchance, a diversion?

With Ken, you just cannot be sure...

Shane


Shane, haven't you heard? It's a "conspiracy" of gigantic proportions!

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

Tulip-
That one rates two thumbs up. Hopefully, The Faithful did not relinquish their sense of humor when they handed over their common sense.
Gunner

WhyTech said...

Gunner said:

" Faithful did not relinquish their sense of humor when they handed over their common sense."

... and dignity, and decency, and integrity.

WT

flightguy said...

I guess the faithful can take solace in knowing the Vern is the self proclaimed "World's Greatest A**Hole". Let him lead the next assault. He's got nothing to lose, including his dignity and integrity.

It's time for a retread of the trump card,

http://www.portfolio.com/executives/features/2007/08/13/Jets-of-the-Future#page1

Ken Meyer said...

OK, Flightguy. You haven't got anything new, so you like replays.

I like replays, too:

ECLIPSE AVIATION WINS 2005 COLLIER TROPHY

Eclipse Aviation Corporation has won the 2005 Robert J. Collier Trophy "for the greatest achievement in aeronautics or astronautics in America.” The 95 year-old trophy, aviation’s most prestigious award, will be presented to the company “for leadership, innovation, and the advancement of general aviation” in the production of very light jets, specifically, the Eclipse 500.

Eclipse joins past winners of the trophy including Orville Wright, Howard Hughes, Chuck Yeager, Scott Crossfield, the crew of Apollo 11, and SpaceShipOne. The award is administered by the National Aeronautic Association (NAA).


Ken

flightguy said...

I just heard a huge laugh and smirk go throughout the aviation community.

You did not help Eclipse by posting that headline. Actually, you disrespected all the names that came before Eclipse.

Gunner said...

Let's turn to more current topics:

On the one hand we have Mouse and Mike Press: Mouse estimates the Eclipse Burn Rate north of $50 Million per month. Mike press tells us that $210 million will last only "a couple of months" unless Depositors kick in Progress Payments. Of course, even if every order was at FULL Retail, that'd take between 70 and 100 Depositors "givin'-it-up-for-Vern" each month.

Seem like a reasonable expectation?


On the other hand, we have Ken and Alexa, both of who claim the burn is closer to $14 Million per month. Alexa goes on to say that Eclipse had around $160 MILLION dollars in immediately due, unpaid bills in June.

How is that possible at a $14 million burn? Well, I guess, if Eclipse didn't pay a single vendor, light bill, employee, payroll tax or CocaCola supplier for ONE FULL YEAR (give or take), they could rack up that kind of bill.

Seem like a reasonable explanation?

Alexa also guesstimates the payroll alone at $9 million per month. That leaves $5 of the "$14 Million" to build aircraft. Well, Hells Bells, even at the current production rate, that would mean that Ken and Alexa claim something like $300K total in vendor supplied parts and services into each produced jet.

I guess that's possible, too. But only in VernWorld.
Gunner

cherokee driver said...

ken said:

The plane, as delivered, beats the speed promised. It beats the useful load promised. And it has a number of features that go beyond what was promised.

Is your complaint that they made a plane that is better than what was promised? That's an unusual complaint :)

The range was indeed shortened as a result of the change in engines. But the plane still gets 1300 nm with 45 minute reserve (1125 nm using the more stringent NBAA reserve standards). That's pretty good. It's right there with all the others in the category:

Ken

You say they were kind enough to just give away 400 lbs useful because they are such great guys. Let’s leave the useful load at 2000 lbs as originally stated and dump in 1686 lbs of fuel for the present configuration. You have 314 lbs left so if you burn off 40 lbs of fuel taxiing you can just get 2 standard FAA approved humans up to make the range you are so proud of. How are you going to get 4 people in? Dump some fuel and bye, bye guaranteed range. They increased the useful load because they had to.

Because of the Williams engine failure and unrestrained weight growth you need to put in larger engines with more thrust. A by-product of the increased thrust in an airplane with the same flat plate area is increased speed but you didn’t get it because they’re such great guys. The bigger engines were needed because it weighed too much. Put in bigger engines, increase fuel capacity because you need more to go the same distance, then pat yourself on the back for blowing a billion $ and telling every one they are getting something for nothing. Never mind you end up with an airplane that burns more fuel, weighs more and costs twice as much as originally quoted. That’s your 'Value Proposition'.

hummer said...

Most aircraft are overpriced.

Reading somewhere in the past, I ran
across "reserve for legal liability"

No one has commented on this being
factored in. Maybe it's a non issue?
Does this relate only to the vendors and suppliers since Eclipse is just putting it together?

Gunner said...

"Most aircraft are overpriced."

Couldn't disagree more. The number of successful aircraft companies that have bellied up in lean times refutes the position; the Income Statements of public aircraft producers refutes the statement; Free Market economics absolutely refutes the statement.

Aircraft Manufacture is meets every test for free market control:
- Lots of suppliers
- Lots of purchasers
- High level of product knowledge available to purchasers
- No significant barriers to entry
- No overburdened government tariffs or subsidies

Personally, I think you pretty much get what you pay for. YMMV

As to Liability Funds and Insurance, that's common practice. Liability Funds can cover everything from recall/retrofit to personal injury and class action.

In businesses where Liability Insurance is customary, those who operate without it run the risk of having the Corporate Veil pierced and the decision makers personally on the hook, in event of a suit. Dunno if this is the same with Liability Funds.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

Gunner,

what type of abhorrent psychology does it take to think that you know more about aircraft pricing and markets than Cessna, Gulfstream, bombardier, Hawker-Beech, etc...?

I cannot even imagine.

Yup, here goes:

"We'll cut the price by 50%, and attract a HUGE market"...

If it was that simple (and Vern has sold this BS concept for a long time....) wouldn't they all just do this?

Well, they USED to have the argument that it was technology that enabled a lower cost - not so any more... bye-bye- ej-22, bye-bye-avio, also-ran to the tune of 10 lbs of rivets...FSW.

Nothing left but the ponzi... move along little dawgies...move along....

hummer said...

my statement was:

Most aircraft are overpriced.

Would it be then fair to say,

"most aircraft are underpriced"

So following:
If an EA500 sells for $975,000,
serial number 0 - 150 is this aircraft today under or overpriced?

If the same EA500 sells for $1,800,000 today, is it overpriced?

Help me, I don't understand.

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

from who's perspective? Kens?

they are all overpriced, except for e-clips which is perfect.

From acompany perspective (reality) the e-500 price is pie in the sky... it's based on high rate and a huge market that are not there.

Labour along runs more than what they are charging for the plane... right now.

There's no real indication that any market for a lot of these planes exists... half or more of the orderbook is Dayjet... otherwise, theres enouph planes in the orderbook (if you believe any of the Bs) for arounf 1.5 years production. Add some, if you like, but recouping $1.x billion over say 1000 or 2000 if you are Ken-minded, is well impossible on a $1.5 million jet.

-parts costs something
-debt service costs something
-labor, overhead, ads, bus signs...booths at NBAA,
-warantee
-etc..

all cost something.

The dinosaures are conventioanlly priced, based on real orders, and based on years of expereince. Ken, just cannot afford them - so he says, they are too high.

I suggest he contact NA Jet or Dayjet and book a flight on a perflight and per seat basis...and save his risk and his waiting time. They are providing service you know, and its cheap compared with the purchase of a plane...its "on-demand" and its in his favorite plane...

what's not to like?

hummer said...

Gunner
The point I was trying to make is that for each aircraft a reserve is
normally set aside (up to 25% to 30%
of the cost of the aircraft) for legal contingencies. This especially true for a new aircraft since no record has been established as to potential claims. Thus my statement that "Most aircraft are overpriced"
because a legal amount is set aside.

hummer said...

ATM
Following this episode for a little time now, I would like to reflect on the Part 135 Airtaxi issue.
One part 135 certificate has been issued. (If one has, there will be several more)
The EA500 looks like it will be inexpensive to operate for a jet.
Mike is flying single pilot.
If Mike is, Part 135 can be certified. (Insurance willing?)
So my belief is that a Part 135 EA500 with mods, etc. at $1,200 per hour looks really attractive.
What's your thoughts?

Gunner said...

Hummer-
Don't know that I can agree or disagree with your last. If the Contingency Funds become necessary, the pricing was correct, agreed? If it's not necessary, then subsequent year pricing should go down or we should see some major windfall in the Income Statement. Ultimately, all income falls to the bottom line.

I think a more pertinent question would be this one:
If most manufacturers build 25-30% into the price for legal contingencies, what percent would be prudent to top onto Le Petit?
Gunner

hummer said...

Gunner. . .
From the sounds of everything here
and everything I read. . . .
I would be afraid to speculate on any type of reserve in any amount. Further, when you mentioned "Piercing the Veil" if I were in top management
at Eclipse, I would have difficulty sleeping at night. Something about willfully and with knowledge putting out a marginal product because of production expectations? Wouldn't want to explain that to a judge or jury.

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

I agree with what you worte, except for some details.

$1200 per hour competes with similar sized prop planes. Similar travel times, lower cost, really for most missions.

Dayjet has this whacky travel window pricing system to make affordability a reality, which is based on more than one passenger on the plane, right?

Their trips are really a few hundred miles... why not just do SR22s at $500 per hour?

Want to go a l ittle farther, where faster might really matter? OK - but you are payload limited with e-500, and IF you have a real plan for more than 1 passenger on the plane... you can split the cost between more passengers on say a PC-12 or Kingair.

Sorry, but I do notsee the way e-clips fits, except for something to hype.

There seems to be better planes for most missions, and one thing is for sure, the missions will vary - they will not always be the same so versatility is important - anyone in aviation will tell you this, unless its scheduled ;)

Finally, $1200 will be a good number, IF all things go perfectly. With a piss-poor trackrecord, and the "lightest" plane with new avionics and electrical systems, I doubt it will be in the air more than in the shop under part 135. Remember the interior being velcro-ed together on the Dayjet PR flights with reporters? That's just the tip....

You?

airtaximan said...

Gunner,

"If most manufacturers build 25-30% into the price for legal contingencies, what percent would be prudent to top onto Le Petit?"

ANSWER: none... its the cheapest twin jet plane out there, every buyer knows this... it has had its share of problems, its basically buy beware at this point.

Why charge more and be safe? Its positioned to be the cheapest, let's keep it that way, at all cost.

;)

hummer said...

ATM
You sound like such a practical fellow and you're accruate about
you analysis.
BUT JETS ARE SEXY!!!
Forget DayJet for a while. I aint got that deal figured our (Yet).
That given. . .and a single pilot operation. . .$1,200 per hour without
JetComplete looks pretty good to me.
And you. Would you fly it?

airtaximan said...

Would you fly it?

Nope... not for revenue operations.

Too brittle...too risky... too small...too performance limited....inconvenient maintenance locations...company is too risky... etc...

There's no reason to risk your business on this plane...

Unless of course you think some turbofans will attract paying customers for MORE expensive, range and comfort limited service?

Why?

A few knots... insignificant in the overall travel scheme for the mission this plane could actually accomplish.

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

find some rich guy and sell him on letting yu manage his Hawker. He'll pay you. Then put it into the market for charter service at $2000 per hour... and make 15% of the gross...

That's how everyone else does it!

If you fail to attract customers, well, lower the price to $1200 per hour, and see if you have any takers. My bet is, you won't find any more. Either they will pay to charter, or they will fly commerical, or they will fly SATSAir, or they will be OK with a turbopro at even less money.... or they will stay home...

Sexy is for folks who can pay $2000 per hour... or not have to pay for sex at all, really!

gadfly said...

It’s an amazing thing that any “legitimate” business can survive in the US of A, given the tax laws and regulations imposed by politicians , who have never worked at a “real” job in their lives. We had a friend here in Albuquerque who felt that businesses had it easy . . . and should be taxed more. Then one day, she and one of her sons opened their own business . . . which lasted about a year. She used to be a liberal . . . extremely active in the Albuquerque political system. Since then, she “changed her mind”, and is now an active conservative politician, running for office.

So it is, that it is most interesting . . . reading the various comments of “overpriced” or “underpriced” manufactured products. The margin between success and failure is so narrow that I think, unless you are in business for yourself . . . and especially in the aircraft industry . . . it might be good to back off and go to another subject.

If . . . “IF” you manufacture a superior product, you may stay in business, provided your customers are guided by “principle”, and not by political interests. But there is always that “shadow” that your customers may not be playing by the rules. At any moment, your best customer may pick up his marbles and go to China . . . like Honeywell did . . . and then have the audacity of wanting proprietary design material, to take with them to the Orient. (And I said, “I don’t think so!”)

Anyone in the aircraft industry is walking a narrow line . . . damned if you do, damned if you don’t. My biggest surprise is that Eclipse does not have a complete and well equipped sheet-metal shop, and a “model shop/tool room” (assuming what “mouse” said is true . . . easy enough for one of you to confirm). That, by the way, is something that I cannot do . . . I would be a “persona non grata”.

‘Having said all that, if I were a customer, I would take the above information to heart. That the little jet “flies” is a given . . . no argument. Does it, or will it meet all the promises . . . that’s a good question . . . depending on what “promises” are “promised”. Will it get all the “bugs” worked out? . . . the jury will be out for some time into the future. Will the company still be of assistance when you need them most? Will the little jet survive over time? (And here, I am referring to its physical integrity . . . corrosion, fatigue, etc..)

Well, them are my thoughts . . . as I read your dialogue!

gadfly

Gunner said...

I guess I really haven't got bit by JetFever after all. Sexier? Yes, I see that. But an entry level jet is still an entry level jet. Hardly something I'd have cuff-links made to match. A decent Sport Fisherman sells in the same price range.

I like to fly; in fact I LOVE to fly. I'm willing to pay for reliability, for speed, for range, for payload and for comfort, probably in that order of priority. But I'm just not hung up on having to do this without blade(s) on the front (or back) of the engines.

What we're learning from the VLJ craze is that the technology we believed had become available just a couple years ago, really has not materialized. TurboFans are still just one of several options; and there are trade-offs in each.

Gunner

hummer said...

ATM, Gunner & Gadfly
Thanks for the input.
Like the farmer said that kissed
the cow. . ."each to their own
taste".
I believe that it will work,
short term at least. . . . .
long term no one knows.

anonymous avionics engineer said...

if I were in top management
at Eclipse, I would have difficulty sleeping at night. Something about willfully and with knowledge putting out a marginal product because of production expectations? Wouldn't want to explain that to a judge or jury.

That is why many of us are glad to be far from Albuquerque.

gadfly said...

A long time ago . . . say, about 23 years ago (it was the time that the "Statue of Liberty" was getting a “face-lift”, because we flew right past “her” at eye-level . . . a great experience, to say the least), some friends and I had business at the patent office, and some other business with “J&J” in New Jersey, so we set off from Albuquerque in a “Lear 25". First fuel stop was “Lexington, KY”, where we parked next to Bunker Hunt’s “Canadair” . . . to the others a normal thing, but to me, a fantastic experience that day. There were five of us ( I weighed about 175 lbs, the lightest of the five ( a “sixth” seat was un-occupied . . . and the tallest of the five (well over six feet, a one time basketball player) stretched out full length . . . the owner and half-time pilot attempted to put a “Twinky” into the shoe of the six-footer, but it wasn’t the first time, so the “attempt” was anticipated) . . . and we had luggage for the few days of business. We had traveled about 1,082 nautical miles on that first leg, much of that distance at 49,000 feet. (The sky is an indigo blue at that altitude . . . and close in color to diving twenty feet down in the mid-Pacific off a submarine . . . another experience I will never forget.)

As far as flying was concerned, the entire trip was as normal as taking the “El” in Chicago . . . just a normal trip from point A to point C, with a “top off" of the tanks at point “B”.

That said, I wonder, “What in the world is this thing about the Eclipse 500 being such a big deal?” . . . a quarter of a century ago, we did far more than the VLJ could even dream of doing . . . all in far more comfort (guaranteed, and with a “potty” on board, should it be needed) . . . dream on, you faithful . . . you are a strange lot!

gadfly

Shane Price said...

BT,

Of course we fully understood the fight over here. We had to, the details of the history were drummed into us in school from the age of 4 and it had, after all, been going on for 800 years...

It is a bit difficult to explain to people from more than 40 miles away, but everyone on the ground new exactly what it was all about.

My sincere hope is that the Faithful won't have to wait as long to be put out of their misery.

However, with Ken (or Moo for that matter), you just cannot be sure...

Shane

Ringtail said...

hummer said

"That given. . .and a single pilot operation. . .$1,200 per hour without JetComplete looks pretty good to me."

It looks good to me too though I need to understand the payload equation better. With one pilot, two 190 pound passengers, 75lbs of bags, whats the range with IFR reserves?

I have not seen any actual empty weights disclosed. From my experience on other aircraft, the actual empty weight exceed whats claimed in the marketing stuff.

The economics of this plane in the taxi market look pretty good compared to a 90 model KA. I need to understand the payload better.

Ken Meyer said...

ringtail wrote,

"With one pilot, two 190 pound passengers, 75lbs of bags, whats the range with IFR reserves?"

That's a payload of 655 lbs, which is under the full fuel payload of 714 lbs, so the plane could take on full fuel. With full fuel, the IFR range is 1300 nm (45 min reserve) or 1125 nm (NBAA 100 nm alternate).

Just for kicks, suppose the plane was heavy (maybe you ordered lots of heavy options or the empty weight came in high as some here have suggested). If you left off 150 lbs of fuel, you'd still have an IFR range of about 1150 nm.

Quoted range figures are at FL410, but you might not want to fly at that altitude. At FL350, full-fuel range would drop to about 1190 nm with 45 minute reserve.

Ken

Ringtail said...

Ken,

If that is the case, these planes will work out very nicely. From my experience, most long flights are around 800-1000 miles with, believe it or not, the average being less than 500. I am not expecting Falcon 900 type missions out of it.

airtaximan said...

Gad:

"That said, I wonder, “What in the world is this thing about the Eclipse 500 being such a big deal?”"

It's the price.

The Lear could have been "forward priced" too, and then there would be nothing "special"... they would have just gone out of business!

The price is based on many being produced. The promise was many individual owners, etc... but became many passengers in air taxis... anything for the higher rate, and the resulting lower cost.

So, I guess the "special" is now the air taxi customer...

we'll see.

Anyone notice flight number 2,3,4 from NA jet?

hummer said...

ATM
"the airtaxi customer" "special"
No, it's both.
First on ownership:
Let's say four owners at +/- $500K
(about the cost of SR22)
Small businessmen and professionals who have a bellyful of the airlines
but can't justify a 6 or 8 mil. jet.
The four owners lease it to an operator Part 135 and provide them with trips from time to time. They also get to brag about their Jet at the club or nineth hole.
So investment: $500.K
Less Tax Consider (200)K 40%

Net Investment $300. K

800 part 135 hours/year @ $300 net per hour ROI = $240,000
divided by 4 = $60,000 ROI per owner or about 20% plus or minus

Does the math add up?

Ringtail. . you're pretty right on the range. ..
but figure $1,200/hr
three passengers
limited luggage
Cost at $400/$500 per hour
800 mile range
cruise at 325 kts

What's wrong with that?

Gunner said...

Hummer-
I don't think the write-off depreciation on Capital Equipment is 40%. May be an exception for aircraft, but I thought the accelerated depreciation break ended....and I doubt it was ever 2.5 years

Also, you can't compare post-tax purchase with pre-tax revenue. The $60 grand WILL be subject to a 40% tax rate for wealthy individuals.

Next, I'm not aware of whether Part 135 operators pick up the entire maintenance bill or not. I doubt it. Gotta factor that in.

Lastly, in a "flying club", which you're describing, you generally find everyone wants the plane at the same time: Weekends, Long Weekends and holidays.

Just a few random thoughts to plug in.
Gunner

hummer said...

Gunner. .
You're exactly right. . .
But it's like looking at a gun. .
wonder how that shoots at a distance
wonder what the recoil is
wonder if it's balance properly
wonder if it's too heavy. .
You know how you find out. .
Take it out and field test it. .
Likewise on these numbers
They can be adjusted
The program can be altered
Considerations can be made

The airline public is fed up
Most can't do a damn thing about
it
Some of us can
With the investment scenario
and the single pilot Part 135 OP
If this damn plane will fly
and it only lives up to half of
the hype
The market is ready
Its time has come
Perfect no
But the right thing hopefully at
the right time. .
We'll see
I think JetComplete
is overpriced and sucks

Gunner said...

Correction.
I believe the highest income tax rate is down to around 35%.
Gunner

hummer said...

Gunner
Hillary with Obama as VP are going to get in and let the Bush Tax Cuts lapse. . .
so. . you'll be paying 45%
Keep smiling.

Gunner said...

Hummer-
The tax rate is what it is. I stopped worrying about it at age 32 when I realized it was an unproductive mental pursuit.

As to the rest, you did not just describe a "gun" that needs testing; you described the economic equivalent of a personal Star Wars Weapon.

Purchase of an aircraft that nets $60K on a $300K investment? 20% ROI? And I still get the resale value at the end?

Tell you what:
I'm out of the stock market tomorrow. My cars..sold. Motorcycles: Ebay. Boat: History.

In fact, I'll sell my home and rent, just to buy as many planes as possible, if you can find me some of them deals. And I'll pay you a commission to boot!

Point: Aircraft ownership is EXPENSIVE. Nobody pays those expenses for you. Not Part 135 Operators. Not even Uncle Sam.

Gunner

hummer said...

Gunner. .
You're sitting on a gold mine right now. Why change.
Not only that, you'd piss Ken off.
Gotta be descrete.
I'll keep you advised.

airtaximan said...

800 part 135 hours/year @ $300 net per hour ROI =

this is the maintenance revenue? Right?

800 operating hrs/year on a plane under management from owners?

not likely... sorry.

WhyTech said...

Hummer said:

"you'd piss Ken off."

I think he did that already.

hummer said...

ATM
Club Concept for Part 135 Ops.
Retail $1,200/hr.
ROI to owners $300/hr
Adjusted Gross Margin for
Aircraft $900/hr
Cost per hour including in house
maintenance with single pilot and
insurance - - estimated $600/hr.
Plus or Minus $300/hr for underage
or overage.
You plug in the numbers.

gadfly said...

Taximan

‘Just a quick comment before I attempt the insanity of going home on I-40:

All applicable patents on the Lear have expired (14 years, etc.), so anyone can “pick and choose”, put the good features into the “wok”, and “stir-fry” . . . enough to serve the masses at fast-food prices. That’s been the American way since the invention of that stimulating drink called “Cotton Gin” that made it possible for one man to do the work of fifty.

There you have the secret of American manufacturing, for “free”.

gadfly

(Reports are that the car wreck was cleared in Tijeras Canyon . . . and I can go home now.)

Gunner said...

Whytech said:
"I think he did that already."

Yeah, but he worked at it real hard. He took back a Deposit and walked. A Deposit that, today, might keep that enterprise functioning for a bit over an hour.

What's not to like? ;-)
Gunner

bill e. goat said...

I thought new aircraft depreciation was 50% for the first year, up until a few years back, when it was cut to 40%.

Anyway, here's some tax site I dug up.

Death and ...Depreciation

gadfly said...

Correction: Seventeen years, not fourteen . . . which used to be for copyrights.

gadfly

('Surprised that no-one corrected me on that sooner.)

airtaximan said...

Hummer,

sounds like you are starting a new business...

see OURplane.com
see magnumjet

Then look at Linear et als... who are doing what you contemplate, I think.

Aiplanes under management (single or gorup owners) with a promise of a return to the owners, from air taxi revenue.

Your customers will be paying you a premium compared to what they are used to - props, for this mission. And these guys, albeit somewhat wealthy, are cheap. Otherrwise, there are real jets available for hire.

The e-clips has no real advantage in speed or comfort... and no real advantage in price compared with the props for the missions you will be doing.

So, how does this work again? Why the 500?

Also, for owned planes, in real charter environment, better redo your numbers and hope for 300 hours a year.

PS. short hops burn a lot of gas, and take a lot of time, and result in a lot of repositioning. That's why most part 135 operators insist on minimum segment lengths, and a nice ratio of long to shorter trips for their jets. The props are used for the shorter missions, where they make good sense, especially economically.

PS. when Ken begins to feed you BS numbers to use, disregard - he does not know shit about this. But if it looks good using his numbers, ask him to pony up as your first investor/owner - he SHOULD WANT to... but he won't. Even he does not believe his own BS... it's just a cheap billboard.

EclipseOwner387 said...

scmurs,


Did your source say why?

bill e. goat said...

Thanks for the info from scmurs.

Observation from Goat (not necessarily contradictory); not accepting deliveries is not the same thing as shutting down production. I suspect with the slow output, they have quite an adequate stockpile of parts to keep them going for a few weeks (possibly a few months).
-----------------------

Goat's (re-)bleat:
Shutting down production (or at least not ramping it up) is the smartest thing Eclipse could do until the design, test, and certification work is complete.

bill e. goat said...

Make that the SECOND smartest thing Eclipse could do.

Gluing Vern to the COB seat, and bringing in a CEO with aviation experience would be THE smartest thing.

(Next to just buying Vern a one-way ticket to NBAA... :). I think Vern's outlook is a good match for the Eclipse COB, less of a good match for CEO.

Observation:
If Vern were only COB, you can bet he would have sacked the CEO (probably several times) by now.

ExEclipser said...

I'm quite suprised that the BOD hasn't sacked Vern yet. Maybe just a matter of time. I'm sure Vern spit rocks when he was told that he was going to be joined by Peg. I don't think he had much say in that...

Stan Blankenship said...

gadfly,

As far as I know, there were never any patent applications made at Learjet (or at Lear Jet as it was know in the early days).

Nor am I am not aware of any airframers seeking patents on basic designs.

Considering prior art, not much other than a design patent could be claimed, so why bother?

Niner Zulu said...

Owning a jet with 3 other guys AND putting it out on charter?

What's the point? You lose most of the freedom to go where you want, when you want. You're under a schedule i.e. "I can't possibly get the plane back by Sunday night...the weather is awful here and I'm not comfortable blasting off into a 3.5 hour solid IFR trip just so you can fly 30 minutes to your golf game. Sorry!". You have to answer to someone else. You have to pull the green gum off of the bottom of the seat and is that vomit you smelled when you opened the cabin door? Who flew in this plane last? Yuck!!

No, thanks.

mirage00 said...

E387... be sure to post your pics when you pick up your bird. Isn't she a beauty?

Happy Owner

I remain amused

double 00

Black Tulip said...

Mirage00,

Pretty pictures; we can see why you remain amused.

I have a question. How can I get a flight manual for the Eclipse 500 with aeromods? I have about 25 linear feet of bookshelves in the basement devoted to flight manuals – most of 100 different aircraft flown. I’d like to add an Eclipse manual. I’ve found other manufacturers very cooperative; most sell an Approved Flight Manual and Pilots Operating Handbook at very reasonable prices. From memory the Cessna Citation manuals sell for a hundred bucks or so. Can I get an Eclipse manual without resorting to a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request?

Black Tulip

ExEclipser said...

Freedom of Information Act is with regards to government documents because they are paid for by taxpayer money.

I'm sure you can get a POH Here.

Other than that, I don't think anyone is compelled to just 'give' you one.

ExEclipser said...

Let me clarify - I don't think EAC is compelled to give, sell or trade a flight manual or any other manual for that matter.

Strike a deal with an owner (you can find them when the FAA updates their registry at the end of the month) and take the thing to Staples and photocopy it.

Just don't try to sell it.

Gunner said...

Exe-
You'd think they'd want to get the AFM's into as many hands as possible. What with the claimed performance of this jet, it should be their primary sales document.

That's why Cessna and others make them so easy to obtain.

It's been asked before, but I ask it again. Can anyone state categorically that there is no non-disclosure agreement signed upon taking possession of an EA-50X and/or AFM? I doubt there would be; just want to put that one to rest.
Gunner

Black Tulip said...

ExEclipser,

Thanks, I would be most happy to pay for a new manual. I believe other manufacturers make them freely available at reasonable prices to promote sales of their aircraft and safe operation.

Black Tulip

Ken Meyer said...

black tulip wrote,

"Thanks, I would be most happy to pay for a new manual. I believe other manufacturers make them freely available at reasonable prices to promote sales of their aircraft and safe operation."

Why don't you get it the old-fashioned way? Why don't you just buy one? That's how I got mine :)

Seriously, just call Eclipse Customer service and purchase one. I didn't have any trouble. It's $179 and it comes in a nice binder. I suppose it's possible they only sell to customers, I dunno. Have you tried?

And there is no "non-disclosure" agreement. That's a funny one that goes along with all the conspiracy theories that seem to pop up here from time to time.

The numbers are pretty good--the performance figures show they achieved a terrific improvement with the aeromods and extended tip tanks.

Ken

Gunner said...

Thanks for clearing that up, Ken.

Not a "conspiracy theory" at all. Simple observation that nobody is posting on ACTUAL performance or CG as yet; not even Mike Press.

Just seems strange for a revolutionary new aircraft that nobody is bragging on their numbers. Seeing "conspiracy theory" behind every reasonable question is a conspiracy theory in its own right.
Gunner

ExEclipser said...

Now, Ken, before the flames start hitting inferno level, I'll clarify that BT first asked how to buy one.

My reply to him was that it was silly to imagine that the Freedom of Information Act would get him anywhere.

It'd be nice to know if EAC does sell the AFM to non-owners.

Still looking for a new TC rev...

mirage00 said...

black tulip...

I believe it is included with the Avio Flight Bag, available online.

Avio Flight Bag

I remain amused

double 00

gadfly said...

Stan

The point I was attempting to make is that “prior art” is sufficient, that without violating any patents, Eclipse could have used the best of the best, and simply built a great plane, at a much reduced cost . . . using the money for improved fabrication methods, etc. With much less effort, they could have had a plane that exceeded their promises, rather than a plane than must be “pushed” to come up to claims.

Instead (in my firm opinion), they attempted to re-invent the wheel, and actually went backwards in the process, both in methods and design.

gadfly

Niner Zulu said...

Nice pictures, M00. Enlarge them a little and you can just make out all the INOP placards.

That's a nice looking family. I wonder if they'd be smiling if they realized how much of a limb the hubby just went out on, purchasing a partially-functioning early model jet from a startup company with shaky financials.

They can take pictures with supermodels hanging all over the plane for all I care - doesn't change the plane, or the company.

;-)

Gunner said...

Careful 9Z. Terms like "shaky financials" seem to set off Flame Wars, these days. I suspect several here got the Bad News and are working as hard a possible to ignore it.
Gunner

bill e. goat said...

Gadfly,
You just don't understand the "disruptive", "non-dinosaur" approach to things.

You see, the advantage of an 8-sided wheel is you never need chocks!

hummer said...

Stan
Back some time you ask a question about the suppliers not being paid until an aircraft was produced and sold. In effect, the suppliers were placing their parts on consignment at ABQ until final payment was received from the customer. Is this a common practice in the manufacturing of aircraft? Could you elaborate?

Niner Zulu said...

Gunner you're right. Besides, I have no proof that their financials are shaky, other than the fact they have squandered $1.x billion dollars to develop and manufacture one flawed product that they have to sell at a loss, and have no other source of income.

I wonder if the faithful realize just how much one BILLION dollars is? It's a staggering number in and of itself. Yet even that wasn't near enough because they'll need a LOT more than that to finish this plane. Eclipse is a money sinkhole like none other I've ever seen. An investment with no hope of a return.

gadfly said...

Au contraire, Monsieur Goat,

We have developed zee “seven-sided-wheel, NG”, to decrease the number of bumps from zee old design . . . Now that is truly revolutionary, leaving room for four more up-grades.

(This is highly classified, but we think a three-sided wheel will give extra boost at “liftoff”, and shorten the takeoff distance.)

gadfly

WhyTech said...

9Z said:

"You have to pull the green gum off of the bottom of the seat and is that vomit you smelled when you opened the cabin door?"

9Z,

I love your real world approach to these things. I have been there and done that, but couldnt come close to expressing it as approrpiately as you do!

WT

WhyTech said...

scmurs said:

"they are not accepting deliveries from suppliers for the next 30 days."

Given their public projection of 92 per day by now, and the reality of 1 per week, they no doubt have part out the wazoo!

WT

Ken Meyer said...

Two housekeeping matters for you guys:

1. Stan mis-read my comments on the NDA; maybe others did too. I meant there is no NDA required in order to receive the AFM. I have no particular knowledge either way about what NDAs vendors, investors, or others may or may not have been required to sign.

2. Insiders at Eclipse in a position to know with certainty deny the rumor posted here that production has halted. They say production is ramping up fine. Indeed, I learned today that the owner of S/N 46 recently received his delivery notification.

Ken

Gunner said...

"Insiders at Eclipse in a position to know with certainty deny the rumor posted here that production has halted."

I've no reason to doubt this specific information from Eclipse.

Let's just remember, however, these are the same insiders, in a position to know, who assured Ken that the Burn Rate there is $14MM per month which, when combined with Alexa's (conservative) estimate of $9MM/month payroll only, leaves about $5MM per month for overhead and purchase of parts and assemblies for the aircraft.

I'm sorry, but that simply flies in the face of common sense and basic arithmetic.
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

hummer,

I seem to recall reading early on that parts would arrive on the dock and there would be a very short build time (2-3 weeks) before the airplane was delivered.

The vendors would be paid shortly there after. It was part of the revolutionary scheme to streamline cash flow and minimize the inventory build up.

The aircraft companies that I am familiar with have "long term agreements" with their suppliers but carefully control the delivery schedule. Payment is typically 30-60 days after delivery. Some will give 2%-10 days net 30 but some don't. One (no longer in business) had a habit of losing invoices as well.

airtaximan said...

"They say production is ramping up fine. Indeed, I learned today that the owner of S/N 46 recently received his delivery notification."

What does this have to do with anything? NOTHING.. thats why it's offered here, just like it takes 51 hours to paint a plane! Gotta LOVE this stuff!!

Makes me think there is a real issue at hand - call me when plane number 51 is delivered.... it was started in production almost a year ago...

- anyone know how many planes are currently in production?
- anyone know the serial number of the last one that went into production?

Please don't say "it takes 51 hours to paint an e-clips!" or "S/N 46 was just called up to come pick up his plane..." or "post pictures of some guy and his kids playing around in one..."

(probably only a few weeks before he sells it...)

bill e. goat said...

Gadfly,
Thinking about it some, I like the "minimalist" approach the 3-sided wheel represents. You are correct- it will indeed reduce the number of "bumps" in the road (something that Eclipse can sure use:).
No need carrying all that weight of extra corners- probably will save manufacturing costs too!

However, some "insiders" have told me Eclipse is offering wheel-facets as an extra cost option. (Some gaudy trend, sort of like leather seats, no doubt). And I've heard some extravegant owners have over indulged in wretched excess and ordered so many facets the dang thing nearly looks round! How backwards and dinosaur-like can they get!

Rumor has it these new-fanged "round" things don't work out so well due to limited tread life. I expect the 3-sided ones to reinstalled shortly.

(Besides their obvious engineering advantages, I don't know if the 60-degree angles are being used because they have a certain aesthetic appeal, or are meant as a compliment to Vern's pointy head).

ExEclipser said...

DayJet N136DJ (The 12th) is enroute to Gainsville.

Black Tulip said...

"DayJet N136DJ (The 12th) is enroute to Gainsville."

It's good to see an Eclipse at 37,000 feet. However, the 300 knot groundspeed is worrisome. Looks like they have a slight tailwind, maybe 15 knots. It's only a 725 nm flight so no need for long range cruise. I'll bet they forgot to retract the landing gear and they're troubleshooting the low groundspeed at this very moment.

Black Tulip

Ken Meyer said...

execlipser wrote,

"DayJet N136DJ (The 12th) is enroute to Gainsville."

Thanks for pointing that out.

It is one of four Eclipse 500's flying IFR at this exact instant in time. There are probably more when you consider Eclipse opts out of Flightaware and some owners do, too. There might be two or three times that number actually in the air as I write this.

All of which points to this fact: the gig is up for the haters; they just haven't realized it yet. They probably won't realize it until the sky is filled with Eclipse 500's, but the tide has already turned :)

Ken

Gunner said...

[sigh]
Another EA-50X flying a short (717nm) trip at FL370, showing about 300kts with negligible average winds.

I know, the ISA is above normal, it's a "proving run", no aeromods, yada, yada yada. You'd think new deliveries would WANT to fly these planes at something over 80% claimed speed.
Gunner

Gunner said...

FWIW-
Three of these four aircraft is registered to Eclipse....errr, Dayjet.
Gunner

ExEclipser said...

You're right - pretty negligible winds up there right now. Who knows why they're going so slow? Could be that they're pulling a full payload and only have 1/2 tanks so are opting for fuel efficiency. Maybe the plane really is getting bad numbers. But since I'm not filling the tanks, I wouldn't know how much is being consumed.

WhyTech said...

Ken said:

"but the tide has already turned :)"

Wildly premature, Ken, wildly premature!

WhyTech said...

exe said:

"Who knows why they're going so slow?"

One engine is shut down to get adequate range.

Ken Meyer said...

They're probably using LRC.

Maybe Rich will call DayJet and ask :)

Ken

ExEclipser said...

Psst - remember when the naysayers were gleefully reporting that all EA50s flying were not legit because they wouldn't fly in RVSM airspace or even file /W?

Right now, three C510s are flying - only one is getting better than 300 kts and it's nowhere near where the EA50s are flying.

Gunner said...

exe-
If I ever posted what you just did, I'd be called "liar" 12X a minute for the next 10 days.

Four C-510's in the air:
- One on a 1 hour area flight from/to TMB

- One at 315kts, FL270

- One at 322kts, FL310

- One at 318kts, FL230

ALL in the Southern USA where the winds are pretty negligible; all far lower than the DayJet homeward bound; ALL at significantly higher speeds.

Just keepin' it real.
Gunner

flightguy said...

Why do the comparisons to Mustang continue?

The E500 does not have an equal! There is no competition?

flightguy said...

cont'd....At least that's what Vern says.

Black Tulip said...

Ken said,

"...the gig is up for the haters..."

Speaking for myself, I love the Eclipse program. This website has provided hours and hours of cheap entertainment and an opportunity to exchange ideas with people of many talents.

No 'hater' here... I still prefer Naysayer. Remember:

The difference between and optimist and a pessimist is the pessimist has more experience.

Black Tulip

hummer said...

Recent Happenings

Single Pilot Ops
Part 135 Cerfication
Cleared for FL 41
PC Certificate
Type Certificate
Type Rating Training
Large infusion of CASH
Concept Jet
12 units to DayJet
Now if Ole Vern can get that line running and get a few out the door. .
the Faithful will think the died and went to heaven.

hummer said...

Just about forgot about the auction that established 'market price". So
many good things happening so quickly it's almost easy to foget.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Seems to me like the Faithful Following are suffering from dueling cases of Reality Dysfunction and Premature Elation.

There is still:
- Avio NfG (and the dozen or so features it entails that will not be released this year - even if it does get certified, according to EAC themselves)
- FIKI
- Twisted Wings
- Hiring Freezes
- USPS vs UPS\FedEx
- No Color Copies
- Strained Vendor relations (serious issues with several structural vendors)
- Vendor invoices going unpaid for months, both penny-ante and big dollar contracts
- Poor employee morale
- Raised barely over half of their target in the last round
- The company, according to its' CEO, nearly failed financially just within the past 60 or so days and had racked up somewhere north of $150M in IOU's and unpaid invoices
- Significant dilution of previous investors including their faithful employees who have sacrificed everything to try and make this work
- Pathetic quality control
- Still no official recognition of the tire and brake issues
- Complaints from within the FAA
- The Con-Jet features first and proud on the web-page, reminiscent of a shell game or the Wizard of Oz (pay no attention to the failed aircraft program behind the curtain)

Meanwhile, the best the Faithful can do is try and dig up dirt on the critics and post pictures of EFB's that are a generation behind the times and cocpkits full of pretty little INOP placards.

WhyTech said...

hummer said:

"Now if Ole Vern can get that line running and get a few out the door. .
the Faithful will think the died and went to heaven. "

They probably will die waiting for this to happen.

Gunner said...

CWMoR-
Laugh now, smart guy...go ahead. Just remember they laughed at John De Lorean, too!

Gunner

Ringtail said...

I am coming to defend Eclipse!

Right now there is a C510 up at 410 only making 300Kts across the ground. I wonder what the power setting is??? WFO?

Ringtail said...

Airtaximan - did we conclude that the the eclipse is a suitable replacement for KA 90 or even 200 for 2-3 passenger trips? The economics sure seem better.

WhyTech said...

rt said:

"Airtaximan - did we conclude that the the eclipse is a suitable replacement for KA 90 or even 200 for 2-3 passenger trips? "

It a replacement for a BBJ for 2-3 passenger trips - but why would you want to?

Ringtail said...

Whytech

mainly because of the economics.

New question to anyone - How does the Eclipse air conditioning on the ground compare to say a King Air..which I do not think is that good... not even in the B350.

Ringtail said...

Ken,

How was the Mustang's AC on taxi out? Was it a hot day?

Gunner said...

ringtail said:
"Right now there is a C510 up at 410 only making 300Kts across the ground. I wonder what the power setting is??? WFO?"

Silly questions, ringtail. Silly conclusion. Look at the flight plan and the winds. He's on a 1,301nm trip. Not 500, not 713....1,300NM. With a 20+ knot average headwind. What power setting would you choose?

The comparisons to the Mustang are embarrassing; stacking the deck to do it is beyond embarrassing.

Still, it'll be interesting to watch and see if that C-510 makes it non-stop. Stay tuned.
Gunner

Ringtail said...

Gunner,

We don't know whats going on up there in the Mustang. We don't know the temps, power settings headings, winds, nothing. Just like we don't for the Eclipse when we see them making the same type speed. We need to get info from a third party that we all trust to validate what we have been told and put it to rest.

Ringtail said...

Gunner,

Do you know anything about the AC in the Eclipse? Will it cool the cabin down in the summer while on the ground?

Ken Meyer said...

gunner wrote,

"He's on a 1,301nm trip."

No, he's not. That's wrong.

Flightaware uses statute miles. It's actually about 1130 nm.

Ken

Gunner said...

Take that back...evidently it's about 1170NM. Flight Aware uses Statute.
Gunner

Gunner said...

Thanks, Ken. We were cross posting. When I ran the plan on DUAT, I realized FA uses statute miles; not certain why, when they're using kts for speed.

redtail said:
"We don't know the temps, power settings headings, winds, nothing. Just like we don't for the Eclipse when we see them making the same type speed."

Power settings, maybe. But anyone sure as hell can independently verify the altitude, temps, headings and winds, redtail. That, plus the promised speeds at various power settings are all you need to make apples to apples comparisons.

No, I don't know how effective the Eclipse A/C is on the ground. I've heard they need GPU power to start at temps somewhere above freezing, but I can't personally confirm that as "fact".
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

That's a long flight for either the Mustang or the Eclipse. About 1130 nm direct, but maybe 1145nm as actually flown. And it is against modest headwinds. I give the Mustang a lot of credit for being able to make that flight. The Mustang is a great plane.

I ran the flight with the new Eclipse Aeromod numbers and the forecast winds for the route. It makes it with legal reserves, but it is tight, and it would have to be LRC. It would take about 5 minutes longer than the Mustang took.

Ringtail--when I test flew the Mustang, it was in Scottsdale, and the OAT was 101F. I found the cockpit warmer than ideal, but the cabin very comfortable. The Mustang has the same "greenhouse" effect that many planes have, but it was much more comfortable than my 340 when I returned to it an hour or so later.

The Eclipse air conditioning, when it is working right, seems to do a very effective job. It was broken when I took my test flight, but working at Oshkosh, where the cockpit seemed comfortable despite the high temperature and humidity. Still, they'd been running it a while, so it's not a fair comparison.

Ken

hummer said...

John De Lorean mistake was trying to
buy/sell coke to finance his operation. As a result he lost his business, wife and almost ended up in the iron bar hotel.
Ole Vern brought home the bacon again. Really, it takes one type of person to build a business; it takes a smooth management team to run it. Vern has been around long enough and should realize this.

Ringtail said...

Ken,

Thanks for the feedback on the AC. AC is high on the list for most passengers (and pilots) in the south/southwest.

Ken Meyer said...

Looks like they weren't that sure they could make it. They filed KFRG to KBMG--that's Bloomington, Indiana--in addition to KFRG to KICT. Obviously, somebody thought they might not be able to make it nonstop.

I think that's very prudent, but it also serves to validate that 1145 nm against the wind is really at the limit of Mustang's range capability.

In all honesty, I think the Mustang has a few miles greater range than the Eclipse because of its better climbrate, especially in hot temperatures. Both of these planes are really at the edge of their envelope on a flight like this one.

Ken

Gunner said...

John De Lorean was found innocent on those charges, by virtue of federal entrapment. It used to be that the government couldn't entice you into a crime and then charge you for succumbing to the temptation they put before you.

Thanks to The War on [Some] Drugs, PATRIOT and Son of PATRIOT, that is no longer a problem in this nation. They can pretty much jail you for whatever they choose.

John De Lorean was also a fairly successful designer and executive in the auto business for years before he started his own company. Perhaps the only thing he shared in common with Vern was an insatiable ego that eventually destroyed him
Gunner

mouse said...

Gunner and Hummer,

Regarding your contingency for insurance and legal keep this in mind. The cost of exposure is related to the number of aircraft in the field. The cost per aircraft is related to how many you produce during the year to cover the annual costs of insurance, Legal, Etc. (of course the integrity of the airplane, Etc. plays a huge part of determining the exposures too, but lets put that aside for now)

If it costs beechcraft $100M per year for coverage and they build 100 airplanes, guess what?

Of course you wouldn't charge $1M per each aircraft built, but you would spread it out over the models as they can afford to contribute (based on price) so a $10M jet would carry a bigger share than a $500K Bonanze, Etc.

Depending on how big the world-wide fleet is, say 50,000 total Cessna aircraft in the world still flyable, they have to insure 50,000 + this years production and devide the cost into the new production planes, parts, service, Etc.

If a startup builds 50 airplanes this year, 250 next year, 300 the 3rd year, Etc. you can see how the cost of coverage grows...

This is why the mid/late 80's was so devestating... 75,000 airplanes around the world, having to be insured/protected by 100 airplanes being built (all mfg as an example) Talk about your reserve fund taking a hit...

The add-ins for covering leag, liability, Etc. is all a part of doing business and it has to be built into the product...

Gunner said...

Ken-
Actually, if you measure their Flight Plan it's over 1,170 nautical and it doesn't look like they were given any shortcuts. But who's counting?

Interesting that a CJ3, also owned by Cessna flew the exact same route at FL430, leaving just prior to the Mustang. Total trip was a full hour shorter. One helluva Jet!
Gunner

mouse said...

The real VLJ vision for Air Taxi...

The only real world benefit (other than a loss-leader type approach to bring new blood into the air charter arena) is to park your Air Taxi at the big airports, and shuttle off the passengers on demand, just like a real taxi.

Cover the smaller business intensive airports the same way. No reservations or scheduling of a charter... walk up and go, and Air Taxi stand. The planes and the pilots need to be affordable enough to do this, and the mind set of management has to be there to sit and wait for the "fare" to arrive.

When it comes to scheduling most shorter trips for the general charter customer (not the big company executives) the determining factor is price more than anything (except that it is turbine powered - turboprop or jet), so a PC-12 or TBM is in direct competition and beats the VLJ's all the time...

The market is mostly all hype.. it's not the plane as much as the mind set... charge for a one-way trip and get busy finding a return trip to move the plane to the next point...

Ringtail said...

Ken said "Looks like they weren't that sure they could make it."

They may not have made it for all we know. If you cancel your flight plan short of destination Flightaware just shows the flight completed.

No, I am not saying it is a conspiracy

mouse said...

Gunner,

typucally in a 135 lease back scenario the owner pays for everything, except the fuel, the pilot, and the incidentals. The owners gets to pay for the plane, the maintenance, the wear & tear on the interior/exterior, Etc. Part 135 usually just helps justify the owners expense for the airplane he puts on lease back. There is no money to be made, just a little offset..

mouse said...

Sunport 11 was shutdown for the weekend to accomodate the change to dual line production...

Ringtail said...

Gunner said about the CJ3- One helluva Jet!

I agree Gunner, but look at what a Premier 1 could do!

mouse said...

AVIO NfG has still not flown in flight test. Still stuck in the lab trying to integration of the software and components to work... Not this Tuesday...

3 planes sitting on the line waiting for wings... tip tanks are the holdup still.. piss poor QA issues...

Horizontals are not meeting specs, so flight controls are not lining up... Guess the "Jig" is up...

Planes are being rushed through construction, and parts are being swapped of assembled out of order causing rework, disassembly and reassembly, start/stop building is a bad thing...

Moral is plummeting again/still on the line by the supervisors... and new employees are flooding in at 50-60 per week. Inexperienced community college wonders...

Practically a kit built airplane... maybe the Epic is the bst choice, at least the owner has some quality oversite...

Gunner said...

Yes, Mouse, but do you have "proof"?
Signed affidavits?
Date stamped pictures?

If you don't have these things, it's prima facie "proof" that all is on track at ABQ. That's just...you guessed it, "the beauty of it".

;-)
Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

Mouse,

I thought NfG was flown into Oshkosh. Obviously not the full version but more robust than the Avidyne version. Am I wrong about that? BTW, I took a charter on a Citiation from KLOU to KHOU about two years ago. FL280 max altitude and less avionics than a Eclipse 500 has currently. We flew VORS all the way down. As we can see, the old way of flying still works!

;-)

WhyTech said...

rt said:

"look at what a Premier 1 could do! "

Been going just that. The Premier IA suffers from the same marginal range as the Eclipse (and Mustang) for real world trips. Premier is fast, but 1100-1200 nm is about it. CJ3 is good for about 1900 nm.

WT

Ken Meyer said...

mouse wrote,

"AVIO NfG has still not flown in flight test."

The company COO says you're wrong.

Ken

bill e. goat said...

re: product liability...

Some recollections (others might care to share their more correct and insightful thoughts)

GA downturn in 1980's:

1a) product liability burden from the "fat years" of high production in the 1970's, and poor certification standards from post-WW2 to really early 1980's (tightened up due to all the crashes and suits).

2a) High interest rates (18% home mortgages).

3a) Senile, excuse me, Senor Reagan changed the tax laws.

-----------------------
Beech went broke, and got bought by Raytheon.

Cessna went broke, and got bought by G.D., then by Textron.

Learjet went broke, and got bought by Bombardier.

Piper went broke, went to Florida, financial reorganization.

Mooney went broke (well, went broke again, and not for the last time).

...not a happy time in GA.
--------------------------

1b) The General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (GARA) was instrumental in allowing Cessna and Piper to reintroduce the piston singles. To this day, all GA benefits from that act, which limits product liability to 18 years.

2b) Interest rates have dropped back to reasonable range.

3b) Depreciation schedule is attractive.

Product Liability"
-----------------------

Regarding Eclipse and liability, I would suspect (okay, my guess) something like 5% markup for coverage- much more than that and Vern would be peddling insurance rather than airplanes.

I know that's a lot lower percentage than for pistons, but consider: 4 lives on board a Cessna 172, 4 lives on board an Eclipse. But the Eclipse costs x6, so the percentage is probably something like 1/6 for human loss coverage.

(I'm not saying piston manufacturers currently have a 30% reserve markup, but I have heard it was once 25% before the 1994 act).

Six Romeo said...

I realize this is completely off-topic (not as far off as some recent posts however), with regard to the Premier 1/CJ3 comparison, does anyone here believe there is any hope for SJ30. Other than published news, I am wondering if anyone has an info on them finding funding or being sold.

Maybe Vern could leave eclipse and let his baby fully fledge, and go raise funds for Sino-Swearingen.

Ken Meyer said...

gunner wrote,

"Actually, if you measure their Flight Plan it's over 1,170 nautical"

Yes, that's right...it was 1145 nm as flown.

Turns out the temps were only ISA +3 to +4 at cruise.

At those temps, the Aeromod Eclipse would do it in about 3:55 and use 212 gallons of fuel. I don't know what the Mustang fuel burn was, but I'll bet it was more than that :)

Great flight!

Ken

bill e. goat said...

More fun with numbers...
Part, well, I donno, only one part here tonight.
------------------------
Lot's of talk about "burn rate".

I'm a simpleton, and since I haven't been able to secure that $50M loan for infrastructure (calculator), I'm keeping the numbers approximate- No cents figures, only dollars. (Rather, some might opine, nonsense figures...).

Anyway, here we go.

Regarding salaries:

Vern = $2M/year
(why? because a while back, either someone posted, or I imagine someone posted, Peg gets $1M/year, and I figure Vern gets twice that).

Peg = $1M/year
(see Vern above for explanation)

Six Sr Whatevers
6 x $500K/year
(why?, because I figure they get about what Peg gets as COO).

Twelve Jr Whatevers
12 x $250K/year
(why? because I figure they get about half what the Sr Whatevers get).

Management payroll:
1 x 2000K
1 x 1000K
6 x 500K
12 x 250K
SUM = 9000K/year ($9M/yr)

Worker Bee payroll:
300 x 50K
(average for jr production workers)

300 x 75K
(average for sr production workers)

300 x 100K
(average for white collar types)

300 x 125K
(average for management types)

Throw in some stock options for higher paid folks, free cokes for lower paid folks (I think the cokes are worth more).

Worker Bee payroll:
300 x 50K
300 x 75K
300 x 100K
300 x 125K
SUM = 105000K/year ($105M/yr).

(Management "payroll" is about 10% of worker bee payroll, I suspect more or less in line with other enterprises of this nature: anyone care to comment?)

So, Mgmt+WkrBee = $9M+$105M = $114M/yr

= $9.5M/mo

I suspect the ongoing "keep the lights on" stuff can't be more than 50% of this, which would be 1.5 x $9.5M = $14.25M/mo.

I think $14M per month has been mentioned in the blog, so that seems reasonable.
-------------------------

Now, I don't doubt Eclipse is spending MORE than that, but it's to buy parts, and I don't consider that "burn", but rather, inventory.

How much more? Let's say, enough for 20 airplanes per mo. Figure components make up half the production cost (which I estimated somewhere back a few days ago to be $1.5M/airplane), and we have:

20 x $1.5M x 0.5 = $15M per mo.

This seems like a pretty reasonable number to me.

So Eclipse is shelling out around $30M per month ($14M "burn" + $15M inventory) to produce around 20 airplanes per month (well, will be eventually). That means, to break even, they need to bring in:

$30M/20 = $1.5M per airplane

More or less, about what they're doing, if you figure half at the "teaser" rate prices in the $1.2M range, and half in the real-world price range of $1.8M

So, maybe they'll stay afloat. Doesn't seem like any rapid payback to the investors though. Guess they are taking the "long view" of things. Especially since they don't have any alternative...
--------------------------

All this seem a little low? A little high? Fine. Go invent your own numbers (just like Vern and Ed do :)

mouse said...

EO387,

Nothing wrong with the old way at all, the issue is it's not what you were sold or buying, that's all..

Of course the plane showed up at OSH with the new system in it, what's new about a little slide-of-hand with Eclipse?

Just off the phone an hour ago and confirmed the parts are stuck in the lab, not working yet, and have not made it to flight test for inflight operations and testing. Maybe next Tuesday...

Ken, of course they tell you differently, that's the whole problem. Bust as long as you believe it, and spread it like its real, it works...

mouse said...

Another new bit of progress: 3 airplanes in production are having the empanage replaced because the line up between the horizontal stabilizer and the elevators is off, and the controls are pre-loaded.

Nothing like mating and de-mating the aft 1/2 of the airplane before the new owner gets it. At least I know the lead is a good sheet metal man and will get the holes lined up pretty darn close again (I am being serious here). He is concerned however about the amount of hand fitting and rework being performed in a rush all to make progress or apparent progress.

"Visual Progress, Isn't" and "Common Sense isn't all that Common after all"

bill e. goat said...

"AVIO NfG has still not flown in flight test."

"The company COO says you're wrong".

------------------------

I don't know about Avio-NxG, but is that the same COO that said 30 airplanes per day in August, or was that Sept?

Gunner said...

Billy-
Ever done a Business Plan for yourself and then started to write checks out of pocket to actually make the business happen? If you have, what was your experience? Any business I've ever gone into, I've tried to identify every possible cost and have then added 20% on for what I didn't think of. My cost projections have always been low. YMMV:

- Simulators
- Training Costs
- Maintenance Centers
- Payroll Taxes
- Costs to train the all the new trade school employees
- Employee healthcare and benefits
- Vendor R&D (Did you think ISSC was working for free, pre-production?)
- Contractors (Did you believe everyone working on this aircraft is on payroll?
- Waste and loss in parts and assemblies
- Maintenance of assembly equipment
- Licensing fees for FSW and others
- Flight testing costs
- Debt service (Do you believe all dollars supporting the company are pure equity?
- Legal Fees for contracts and the like
- Legal fees for Legal and Regulatory issues
- Legal fees to sue former customers and employees

And that's just off the top of my head.

However, you've clearly thumb-nailed MOST of the gross costs. I don't think you'd leave it at that thumbnail if it were your dollars on the line. You're analysis convinces me that the number is far closer to mouse's estimate of $55 million, or even Mike Press' hint of.....WOW!

Gunner

airtaximan said...

mouse,

any word on the rumor that new aircraft production is halted, and that deliveries are stopped, by e-clips?

Any clue as to when S/N 57 (last reported airplane start, almost a year ago) will be delivered?

Any clue as to what is in work? How many planes? What level of non-manufacturing?

PS. I love some idiot correcting you a few days ago regarding "e-clips manufacturing parts" using Stir-fry as the PROOF that they in fact do manufacture...what an ass... assembly vs manufacture - and to think they ormally just trust the exact BS out of VErn pie-hole...

Thanks

airtaximan said...

gunner,

$1 million direct labor so far
another $1.5 million in indirect labor

plus parts, sub assemblies, paint, warantee, IOU's to come... etc...

Its a joke.

EclipseOwner387 said...

ATMAN,

My prediction is production has not stopped.

;-)

Gunner said...

Alternate View of Burn Rate Analysis:

You can try to inductively build a company's budget by thinking up all the possible costs, but you're not likely to be super accurate. No you won't guesstimate them too high; you'll generally be way low, unless you're in the business yourself or have dedicated yourself to a real business plan. So a good, check on your numbers is by deduction. Here's a few deductive data points:

- Adam Aircraft certified a twin engine prop and is well on it's way to certifying a jet. They did it for about 1/4 the price of the EA-50X. Investment is not tied to expenses; but it's a marker. What do y'all think Adam is burning...$7-8MM per month? I doubt.

- Eclipse took in more investment money sometime after January, 07. I remember Ken saying how happy he was, so maybe he'd remember when....but let's call it January 1, lest I be labeled a "liar".

By June, Alexa tells us, the company had $160 MILLION in immediate debts to pay. Sound to anyone like that represents a $14MM (or even $30MM) per month burn rate?

- When Eclipse went back to the well in June, looking for $400 million more, who did they wind up climbing into bed with? Highland Capital, derided by The Faithful as being sharks in the rather dog-eat-dog world of Wall Street. Why not Goldman or one of the "kinder, gentler" money lenders? Things that make you go, "Hmmmm?".


- Mike Press tells us the @$210 million raised will be pretty much gone by September; that Depositors will need to make up the shortfall with Progress Payments....gonna take a whole lots of Progress Payments, methinks.

Gunner

Black Tulip said...

Mouse,

This is powerful medicine you are dispensing.... powerful medicine. No doubt your assertions will be questioned. I have no way of knowing what goes on in the Eclipse factory, but even a rumor of tail feathers being swapped around or reworked is unsettling. Most of all, I’m glad that I’m not standing in line for one of these things. I take my family flying.

Black Tulip

bill e. goat said...

Yikes! Gunner's making me think more than I want to (I really prefer to think very little at all).
--------------------------

Simulators- good point, but there's only a few of them, I imagine bought on time, or leased. I don't have a good feel for this- say $5M per machine, amortized over 5 years, two machines, say a $2M per year, $200K per mo? Double+ that for a fudge factor, say $500K per mo?

Throw in some old L-39's that they bought for maybe $300K, spread it out over a few years; cost, about nothing. (Throw maintenance exp in with sim "fudge" factor).

Flight (vs sim) training costs- good point- maybe $50K or so per student, maybe 20 students per mo= $1M / mo. (I suspect Dayjet is having to pay the cost for each of their pilots, as there are more than one per "sale")

Maintenance centers- I suspect local funding/incentives is footing the bill

Payroll taxes and health care, yup, figured into the 50% markup

Vendor R&D- yup, I think the vendors ARE working for free on R&D. (Don't know this, but suspect it, in exchange for some "exclusive supplier" clause).

Contractors- don't think Eclipse has any contractors left, according to Execlipser's comments. (There was talk about manufacturing contractors, but they don't have to pay health care costs for, so that pretty much negates the price difference).

Waste and loss of parts- I can't imagine it exceeding more than 1 complete airplane loss per 20 (5%)

Maintenance on equip- yup, figured into the 50% markup

Licensing fees for FSW, CAD, etc- seems like someone posted FSW cost $150K per year for license? Maybe three machines, $0.5M. Throw in another 20K x 200 for CAD licenses = $4M $4.5M/12 mo = $0.5M per mo., on the high side.

Flight test costs? Negligible, compared to the labor, which is included in the head count calculations.

Debt Service, say $500M loan (I really do think it is the BoD keeping this thing afloat with around $1B, so far, when “24th hour” stuff falls through). I figured they're doing the "pay you Tuesday, with Stock", but what, maybe 8% loan; $40M service per year, $3M per mo.

Legal fees, included in the Jr and Sr “Whatevers”. (Maybe some outside law firm is retained in addition).
---------------------

I'll grant a monthly increase of:

$1.5M simulators and training expense

$1.5M one complete airplane write-off per 20 built (seems wildly high)

$0.5M CAD and FSW fees (seems high, but maybe not)

$3M debt service

SUM = $6.5M per mo more than I originally estimated, for a total “burn” of $14.25M + $6.5M = about $21M/ mo. Just can't see it coming anywhere near $55M or more.

bill e. goat said...

Hmmm, but if Eclipse is buying inventory for 30 airplanes per mo, and that is roughly half of $1.5M each, that would be $22.5M, added to a "burn" of $21M, = $43M per mo. Throw in a couple $1M for short-term some debt service, maybe $45M per mo going out, plus this and that...

Hmmmm...

Gunner said...

Bill E-
What do you make of the $160 Million in Payables in June? Alexa admitted to it and she obviously has inside information.

Payroll had to be up to date; Rent, heat, light and power had to be pretty much up to date. Try backing into a number from there.

Decide that Alexa was ummmm "misinforming" us, as with the D-Jet compressor stalls and Stan's history as a disgruntled vendor?

You're left with an unencumbered $200 Mill that Mike Press said would only last "a couple of months" without Progress Payments. Back into the Progress Payments as you will and see what order of magnitude Mike was thumb-nailing the net burn at.

It's very difficult to figure what a business WILL cost; much easier to figure what it IS costing.
Gunner

WhyTech said...

gunner said:

"My cost projections have always been low. "

I hve particiapted in the budget buildup for over 200 startup companies. The entrepreneurs were ALWAYS way low. Even their handlers (VC's) were always low. Never saw one on the high side in 20 years.

WT

WhyTech said...

6R said:

"anyone here believe there is any hope for SJ30."

It depends. As an "independently" manufactured acft (by a stand alone dedicated manufacturer), no. The acft has been so long in development, that it is behind the times, especially in avionics. Too much "re-development" required to make a success of it as a stand alone manufacturer, IMO.

As part of an establihed afirframe manufacturer product line? Maybe. The SJ30 has some interesting cacabilities re speed and range, but it achieves this in a similar fashion to E-clips - via a relatively small cabin, which limits market appeal. The real world price puts it close to the CJ3, which, IMO, will win almost every time because it is better balanced in its capabilities.

WT

bill e. goat said...

Hi Gunner,

All in all, I'd say it does seem like a risky adventure. I just can't figure them going through $200M in a couple months for operating expense though, and really, not even for operating expenses plus inventory, at their present build rate. Maybe there is some undisclosed payback of short term loan for the "24th hour" stuff a while back.

Gotta say, the finances of Eclipse are the intriguing aspect to me. The airplane will come within (or exceed) specs within a few percent +/- I think, although it is taking a while to get there.

I don't think the finances are going to turn out to meet Vern's expectation, or at least not his hype, within a few percentage points though.

And their schedules certainly aren't within a few percentage points! (But, in aviation, what is).

Time in the slammer, well, I hope Vern doesn't come within a few percentage points of my expectations there! (But time off for good behavior? No bets on that one!! :)
-----------------------

(I AM afraid if the BoD bought Vern a one-way ticket to NBAA, we'd see recividism. Better for society that he remain at Eclipse, where we can keep an eye on him!).

Hmmmm, wonder if the judge would let Vern change his attire from traditional, dinosaur-like black and white stripes, to something more,..."disruptive", like orange and black stripes???

AlexA said...

Mouse said “Sunport 11 was shutdown for the weekend to accomodate the change to dual line production...”

Mouse thanks for confirming the information that I posted earlier in the week. Eclipse has been delivering 2 to 3 aircrafts per week. The new line is supposed to increase that number to 7.

More food for thought:
The first batch of tip tanks did prove troublesome in the installation process. I understand the issue has been identified and resolved.

The first non-”N” aircraft has been delivered.

Some haters might not be aware but there is a firm made up of ex-eclipse employees that assist new owners in the acceptance process. Final QC has made great strides. The last two aircrafts which they helped the owners accept had less than 5 “minor” squawks combined.

With NBAA around the corner ABQ is bristling with rumors that some of the established fractional players are coming to the table with orders. We’ll have to wait for confirmation on this one.

Expect the next press release out of ABQ to be that the Double Eagle training facility with the sim is operational. Target date is around September 15th.

Ken Meyer said...

Alex wrote,

"Some haters might not be aware but there is a firm made up of ex-eclipse employees that assist new owners in the acceptance process. Final QC has made great strides. The last two aircrafts which they helped the owners accept had less than 5 “minor” squawks combined."

Say, that's interesting, Alex.

So some former Eclipse employees are working with the company and the customers, while mouse took the low road--years after his separation, he's still bitter enough to spread all kinds of manure in a losing effort to hurt the company.

Interesting.

Ken

Shane Price said...

Alexa,

"The new line is supposed to increase that number to 7", a week per your full post.

Does that mean that The Great Raburn will be able to claim that the promise of 'one per day in August' has been met?

Seems a strange way to meet a production goal, shutting the line down for two or three days...

Mind you, we are talking 'Vern's World' here. He has told the marks (sorry, 'customers') that EAC would build one aircaft per day during August, so that's the way its gotta be.

Just like all the other promises, performance updates, new engines, Avio NG, etc etc. Each time his ego demanded something, everyone else has to dump the weekend with family.

I also am interested in the 'buzz' around ABQ about a rake of new orders. This must mean that even the dogs in the street are aware that the '2,700' number is a work of (light) fiction.

Shane

mirage00 said...

Does that mean that The Great Raburn will be able to claim that the promise of 'one per day in August' has been met?

You seem bitter. But the answer would be yes.


Seems a strange way to meet a production goal, shutting the line down for two or three days...

Who confirmed it was shut down?


Just like all the other promises, performance updates, new engines, Avio NG, etc etc. Each time his ego demanded something, everyone else has to dump the weekend with family.

Huh?


I also am interested in the 'buzz' around ABQ about a rake of new orders. This must mean that even the dogs in the street are aware that the '2,700' number is a work of (light) fiction.


Ken and Alexa... The "haters" do seem to have raised the level of their animosity lately. Another one of my predictions coming true.

I remain amused!!!!!!

double 00

Ken Meyer said...

Mirage00 wrote,

"Who confirmed it was shut down?"

I can't confirm it.

But Peg Billson told me in late July that they would shut down primary assembly for a few days in August to reorganize it from a single line to a dual-production line.

It turns out that their volume production analysts determined that primary assembly was the limiting factor and that they could double output by splitting that line into two.

My guess is that these rumors of a "shutdown" are all, in one way or another, relating to the reorientation of the line in primary assembly.

Ken

airsafetyman said...

If ex-employees of Eclipse are "helping customers with the acceptance process" why are they "ex-employees"? Eclipse has outsourced customer relations to charity?

mirage00 said...

why are they "ex-employees"?

It's called "Entrepreneurship". I would assumed they are building a business around it.

Another example of the "haters" finding issues with every written word.

I remain amused!

double 00

WhyTech said...

Moo said:

"I would assumed they are building a business around it. "


So, E-clips cant get it right the first time. Do you see the absurdity in this? I buy a cheap jet, and them pay someone outside E-clips to be sure its right, because E-clips cant be trusted to turn out a quality prodict, and I am not bright enough to figure it out myself.

What a deal!

WT

WhyTech said...

M00 quoted then said:

"Does that mean that The Great Raburn will be able to claim that the promise of 'one per day in August' has been met?

You seem bitter. But the answer would be yes."

Just like the first flight and other synthetic milestones E-clips has trumpeted to the unsuspecting world.

WT

mirage00 said...

So, E-clips cant get it right the first time. Do you see the absurdity in this? I buy a cheap jet, and them pay someone outside E-clips to be sure its right, because E-clips cant be trusted to turn out a quality prodict, and I am not bright enough to figure it out myself.

Huh? You said you were a businessman? What don't you understand?

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

"Haters"?

Awful strong word, that. I doubt many of us are willing to expend the energy necessary to "hate" any company simply because we don't believe in their products, marketing tactics or hype.

"Haters" came about in retaliation of our use of the term, The Faithful, which is certainly more flattering than Vern's own label: "True Believers".

Seems a bit, errrr, overly emotional to call your adversaries "Haters" simply because they dubbed you "Faithful". I, mean, how many of us commonly use the term "Hate" when talking about aircraft investment or aircraft companies? Only those of us who are highly emotional, I think. It would seem to me that "The Doubtful" is the logical antithesis of "The Faithful".

Anyway, if "Haters" is a label that easily rolls off the tongues of The Faithful, Haters it shall be. I just think it makes y'all look rather silly to the world; but that's your choice.
Gunner

sparky said...

ken sai

"It turns out that their volume production analysts determined that primary assembly was the limiting factor and that they could double output by splitting that line into two."

So let me get this striaght....they paid outside consultants to tell them "you know....If you built them two at a time, you'd produce more." and we're arguing over where the money's going?

I thought Tod Fiero was the high-output manufacturing guru, braught in specificaly to speed up production.

the funny thing is, they'll issue 4-5 c of a'a in a one week period and ken will hold this as the sign that they've all collectively pulled their heads out. It has to be consistant in order to mean anything.

One other thing, Mike Press mentioned progress payments. How many progress payments were called on in the beginning of the year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that means their still at least 4 months out for the next call. no progress in = no aircraft out.

WhyTech said...

Moo said:

"What don't you understand?"

What I dont understand is why E-clips customers put up with such horse manure.

WT

Shane Price said...

Moo,

Quote from you, quoting me...

"Does that mean that The Great Raburn will be able to claim that the promise of 'one per day in August' has been met?

You seem bitter. But the answer would be yes."

My response:-

Gotcha!

The answer, of course is...

NO.

Eclipse have not built 24 of anything so far this month, and have no chance of picking up the 'lost' production by doing what Ken says they are up to this weekend.

Please be clear, Moo, I am not the bitter sort. I'm more the 'laughing at the Eclipse Cult' type of person.

After all, you 'Believe' in a 'Leader', who anyone in possession of normal levels of intelligence can see is detached from reality (at best) and you react with predictable (see gotcha above) knee jerk responses to any slight attack on 'Articles' of the same 'Faith'.

Seems to me that the actions of the Faithful are those of cult members the world over. Denial of reality, slavish repetition of The Leader's words and a complete refusal to even consider another postion as valid.

Hence the attempt to describe me as bitter. You can't handle an honest question, and in your haste to respond, fall hook line and sinker for the obivous verbal trap.

You were careful not to deny that '2,700 orders' is a work of light fiction. So, are the dogs (the ones in the street) in ABQ onto something?

Shane

Black Tulip said...

The Faithful seem willing to justify most anything that occurs in and around Albuquerque. It reminds me of the picture of Neville Chamberlain, stepping off a plane from Germany in 1938, and waving the Munich Agreement over his head:

“My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.”

Black Tulip

Gunner said...

sparky-
I was thinking the same thing about Progress Payments when Alexa, mirage and others "leaked" the news that they're shutting down production to increase production.


Here's what we know:
- The 6 month window for the "Greeting and Salutations" notices is not based on current production but on scheduled ramp up.
- Best guess is that about 300 were chosen for the honors in January.
- 50 Planes down so far

We should be able to do the math as to when they can call in the next group of 6 Month Draftees, if we knew what the production ramp up promise is.

Problem is, I'm not willing to quote those numbers, because there have been so many different schedules announced, I'd certainly be denounced as a Hateful Liar. Don't much mind that, except that it derails the real discussions, even when we choose not to respond.

In any case, I'm waiting for the upcoming Revised Revised Revised Schedule, once the "leaks" are confirmed in an Official Eclipse Announcement. I'm betting it'll show SN 301 coming off the line somewhere in the Feb/Mar timeframe. That would mean the draft notices go out in: you probably guessed it as Mike did.....September!

Stay tuned. The Ghost of PT Barnum is about to make another appearance.
Gunner

Black Tulip said...

Let us not be too quick to discount the Eclipse production claims for August. If one aircraft is delivered on the last day, can’t this be extrapolated to a rate of 30 per month and 365 per year? We need to ‘month-ize’ and ‘annual-ize’, plus assume they are working seven days a week. I didn’t get it before… but now I do.

Black Tulip

mirage00 said...

Does that mean that The Great Raburn will be able to claim that the promise of 'one per day in August' has been met

If they are producing one aircraft a day by Aug 31st based on a dual production line (shift on Monday), Then "Yes" they ramped up to one a day as promised. If they do it a week later, oh well.

I remain amused!

double 00

Gunner said...

mirage-
Do you know what the latest official revised ramp us schedule is for September and the Fourth Quarter?

Gunner

gadfly said...

Questions:

Are there plans for dynamic fatigue testing of the airframe?

And if so, “When?” and “Where?”

And if not, “Why not?”

gadfly

mirage00 said...

Are there plans for dynamic fatigue testing of the airframe?

"Straw grabbing" again...

I remain amused

double 00

mirage00 said...

mirage-
Do you know what the latest official revised ramp us schedule is for September and the Fourth Quarter?

Gunner


I do, but haven’t you heard? We are all sworn to secrecy. ;)


I remain amused

double 00

WhyTech said...

M00 said:

"Straw grabbing" again..."

Totally unnecessary - there are so many meaty issues in plain sight that we will leave the straws for a few years down the road.

WT

gadfly said...

Fact:

All airframes go through dynamic fatigue testing, sooner or later. The “dinosaurs” have this habit of conducting the tests at a scheduled time and place . . . they learned the “hard way”.

gadfly

hummer said...

mirage00

So is it right to assume that September will be one unit each
day from two production lines
giving how many per month?

hummer said...

And is it possible for someone to
update the Eclipse 500 Delivery
Data?

Ken Meyer said...

DayJet Makes ABC News

DayJet Nearing Launch Of Eclipse Air Taxi Service

Air taxi startup DayJet late last week was in the final stages of proving runs with its small fleet of Eclipse 500 Very Light Jets in preparation for the launch of commercial operations by the end of the month, founder, President and CEO Ed Iacobucci said last week. Completing the proving runs and adding the Eclipse aircraft to DayJet's Part 135 certificate are the final steps remaining for DayJet to begin its "per-seat" air taxi service, Iacobucci told BA in a telephone interview Thursday.

The company had flown more than 25 hours with an FAA inspector on board by last week, he said, adding that the flights "have been going very well." The DayJet Eclipse fleet had accrued 855 flight hours by last week and the first aircraft just underwent a 300-hour check.

Operations could begin on a limited basis later this week if everything goes smoothly, Iacobucci said, but the company is actually targeting the end of the month to begin air taxi revenue flights.

-----MORE-------

Ken

mirage00 said...

The company had flown more than 25 hours with an FAA inspector on board by last week, he said, adding that the flights "have been going very well." The DayJet Eclipse fleet had accrued 855 flight hours by last week and the first aircraft just underwent a 300-hour check.

All with this little "paper airplane".

I remain amused

double 00

WhyTech said...

Moo said:

"All with this little "paper airplane"."

And many, many p-clips!(Thats paper clips.)

airsafetyman said...

Vern to ex-employee: "Manuel, we can't pay you anything, but if you get a customer to actually accept one of these things and get it off the ramp we can give you:
A. A case of Corona
B. A real green card this time (we have an in with the government)
C. A plane ticket home

ExEclipser said...

Hummer: I'm no stress guy, but there were two aircraft that were used for testing. One is "structural" where they tried to break off the wing, but couldn't because it was too strong. That test was completed in 2005. It was 'dynamic' in that it was destructive testing.

That test gave the airframe an initial life of 10,000 hours.

At the end of 2005, they sent out a 2nd strain gagued airframe to some lab where it is undergoing fatigue testing. My understanding is that this one will always stay as a test model so that if there are signs of fatigue stress, it will show up on the test fixture before any aircraft in service.

If there are any real concerns about FSW, it'll show on this test rig first.

Again, I'm not a stress guy, but if any of y'all are the jack of all trades, correct me.

ExEclipser said...

ASM: That was pretty much uncalled for.

mirage00 said...

A real green card this time (we have an in with the government)

Oh yeah... that "Conspiracy" theory again.

I remain amused

double 00

bill e. goat said...

Shane said:
This must mean that even the dogs in the street are aware that the '2,700' number is a work of (light) fiction.

I think they’re made using (light) friction...
--------------
Gadfly said:
Are there plans for dynamic fatigue testing of the airframe?

I think Mouse said fatigue testing was supposed to have started this summer (in ?July 07?)
------------------
Gunner said:
I'm waiting for the upcoming Revised Revised Revised Schedule

You need to use the Preliminary Revised Provisional Corrected Interim Schedule! (They're free, over by the Koolaid and brownies).
-----------------------
Seven per week ?!? That should “burn” through the stockpile of Avio-OG stuff pretty quick. Anyone know what’s the story with Avio-NG? On display at Oshkosh, okay: but some talk above about whether or not it has come out of the bat-cave yet and really flown?
------------------
ExE, I concur with your sentiments about the Eclipse workforce. I think they are dedicated and while perhaps inexperienced, are positive and dedicated. I myself have taken a poke about some of the workers being fresh out of the training program, but I admire them for bettering themselves, and for what I think they will contribute to Eclipse and the aircraft the owners will (eventually) receive.

If there is any fault in the work force, it is due to Eclipse management, for diluting the concentration of experienced workers by recklessly ramping up production before the "new grads" have sufficient OJT. Which is NOT the fault with the new grads themselves.

WhyTech said...

exe said:

"ASM: That was pretty much uncalled for."

Perhaps, but hilarious! And made more so by close proximity to reality.

WT

WhyTech said...

b.e.g. said:

" I think they are dedicated and while perhaps inexperienced"

I sort of think of building airplanes as being in a similar category to heart surgery: a screw up can hurt big time. Wouldnt you really rather have a surgeon or acft an assembly tech who has done it many, many times before he gets to your airplane? Dedication is nice, but I'll go for experience, please.

WT

421Jockey said...

Gunner said:
""Haters"?

Awful strong word, that. I doubt many of us are willing to expend the energy necessary to "hate" any company simply because we don't believe in their products, marketing tactics or hype."

I have to agree with Gunner on this one. Hate is too strong of a word.

It is clear to me that the naysayers sould be referred to as the "Bigots"

WhyTech said...

Ken quoted:

"Eclipse joins past winners of the (Collier) trophy including Orville Wright, Howard Hughes, Chuck Yeager, Scott Crossfield, the crew of Apollo 11,"

No doubt about it, ol Vern is right in there with these guys!

WT

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mirage00 said...

Can't you see he doesn't have anything to say? Gosh what a miserable person - arrogant, condescending, and that moronic "I remain amused" - more like "I remain pathetic". In 6 months, he's said nothing interesting or informative with the exception that he has provided 2 links to other sites, which proves he can at least read and type in html code.


mirage00 said...

Does that mean that The Great Raburn will be able to claim that the promise of 'one per day in August' has been met

If they are producing one aircraft a day by Aug 31st based on a dual production line (shift on Monday), Then "Yes" they ramped up to one a day as promised. If they do it a week later, oh well.

I remain amused!

double 00



Did I poke the bull? I have as much to offer as many others on this board. To my fellow bloggers who DO give me the courtesy of a reply, I thank you.

I remain amused

double 00

gadfly said...

If I am called a name, I like to be educated as to the “definition” of that name, so I looked up the meaning of “bigot”, according to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary:

Etymology: French, hypocrite, bigot
: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance.

Well, now I know where I stand, should I continue to ask questions of the “faithful”.

gadfly

(Is it OK to use the term, “faithful”? . . . so as not to offend someone? Of course, you may continue to call the “un-faithful” bigots, lumping us all together . . . as that seems to be within the rules. You know, if you’ve seen one “bigot”, you’ve seen all . . . they all look the same . . . ‘can’t tell ‘em apart. And even a question qualifies them as being a bigot.)

WhyTech said...

9Z said:

"but drivel is drivel. "

You're right. I am going to change the channel to the Bold and the Beautiful or General Hostital for awhile.

WT

Green-or-Red said...

EX-E
You are correct in that the fatigue testing is happening as we speak, in fact has been going for a few months. It is at the same company that did the static tests.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Black Tulip said...

Gadfly,

Thanks for your analysis of the words and language in use here. You've reminded me of a tee-shirt available online:

"Stereotypes Are A Real Time-Saver"

Black Tulip

bill e. goat said...

9Z:
"You are maxxing out the Boring Meter!"

Is that the same thing as a Borescope? I think that term more aptly applies to TV. (I think the blog is much more informative, and is better entertainment!)

...although I think we could use more penguins, like PBS has...

mirage00 said...

Niner Zulu..

Ok, so condescending, sarcasm remarks are ok from the "naysayers", "haters", etc... most of the time as long as they throw in a "rumor" post or an "I heard from a friend of a friend" post.

Any comments about Gunners racist remarks? You had to scroll through that as well. How about the nasty comments we read on a consistent basis about Ken and his motives, etc?

You should probably get back on your stump and apply the same rules for everyone?

The reason why I sign of with the "I remain amused" is because as everyone has said many times…. they find this blog informative and "entertaining" Would you rather I remain angry? There is enough of that to go around….

Thus... I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

bill e said:
"Is that the same thing as a Borescope?"

I find it kinder and gentler to think of it as a Twit Filter.
Gunner

Gunner said...

"Gunners racist remarks? "

Say WHAT?!!!!

Mirage-
You can back that up or apologize for it right now. That is, if you have any self respect whatsoever.

Between you, Ken and Alexa, you redefine the word "hate", and believe me, it shows.

Twit.
Gunner

mirage00 said...

Gunner, my sincere apologies! Wrong author!

It was "airsafetyman" that made the questionable post.

Now apologize for calling me a twit! ;)

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

Mirage-

I will thank you for your prompt apology and for setting the record straight, but that's as far as it goes. In my world, you don't get to call people things like "Racist" and expect a handshake simply for correcting the record. A Bitch Slap is far more common. A handshake and return apology? I think not.

Again, thanks for standing on your own hind legs on this, but next time get your facts straight before you make that kind of public, personal attack.

And, yes, I fully realize I used the term "Bitch Slap" for any who wish to start making accusations of misogyny. ;-)


Gunner

gadfly said...

Gunner:

According to the definitions (below), it seems that you are being asked to admit an error (and your regret) for using the term, “Twit”, in reference to the offended person, as being an incorrect definition of the “character” of the person so offended. If I were a defending lawyer, I would make reference to the “second” definitions in both cases, to decide if the characterization of the plaintiff is correct.

Apology:
1 a : a formal justification : DEFENSE b : EXCUSE 2a
2 : an admission of error or discourtesy accompanied by an expression of regret (a public apology)

Twit:
1 : an act of twitting : TAUNT
2 : a silly annoying person : FOOL

All this may or may not be amusing, but it would be good (in my opinion) to get back to technical discussions . . . or financial considerations, about the little jet, and its parent company, and leave the personal insults to the “professionals”.

gadfly

mirage00 said...

A handshake and return apology? I think not.

My request was simply made to lighten the mood (the wink). But I must admit I am not surprised that the gentlemanly rules of reciprocation do not exist here.


I remain amused

double 00

Black Tulip said...

As the Faithful and the Naysayers trade barbs today, I am personally pleased that no one has resorted to the ultimate insult:

"What would your Mother think if she knew you were doing this?"

Black Tulip

Gunner said...

Mirage-
I missed the jocularity in context of the gravity of the attack.

"Gentlemanly rules of reciprocation" apply only when one party responds to personal insult with greater insult than he received. I hardly think Twit and Racist are on the same level. Bitch-Slap and Racist are, however. So, had this occurred in person, I assure you, you'd have received reciprocal apology.

I think we're done here.
Gunner

Gunner said...

BT-
And keep my MOM outta this!
;-)
Gunner

Black Tulip said...

Hey let's talk about FlightAware. There's an EA50 (SFH875) airborne now at FL370. Lo and behold, it is actually covering the ground like a jet, almost 400 knots. Now let's take a look at the winds aloft.

Black Tulip

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