Monday, September 03, 2007

Amateur Hour

Subject: Your blog "eclipseaviationcritic"
Date: Sep 3, 2007 9:29 PM
Hi Mr. Blankenship,

I enjoyed reading your blog, and it is just incredible how this company acts.

I was ready to order one, and in spite of many warnings of industry professionals I decided to go ahead. What followed was a ridiculously arrogant response from this company that has nothing but failed their customers so far! Our attorneys reviewed their contract, and what they actually sent over was a "Deposit Agreement" in which only governed minor issues around a deposit.

This deposit agreement stated that the customer was obligated to sign a non negotiable "aircraft purchase agreement" which they were unable to supply. So they seriously expect people to commit to signing an agreement with that they do not know what it says.

It gets better. Of course we do things by the book, so we finally got a call back from these guys, just to be reminded that they would not even sign any deposit agreement UNTIL they receive a deposit. No check, a wire transfer which cannot be recalled - even if they decide not to sign the agreement.

There are a few companies that are entitled to be arrogant - just because they have incredible product. Eclipse certainly does not belong to them - they have nothing but failed customers and shareholders. The only two possible explanations for me are: Either they are run by Hollywood executives in their midlife crisis that try practicing the "Act as if" game (and are doing it badly), or they are in the process of building a database of the "World's Dumbest Rich People" - actually a business proposition that has some merit, compared to the business disaster they are in right now.

The first theory is supported by their entertaining efforts to do nice renderings of "Concept Jets" while unable to get their first product done. But if the second one seems to be true, I would love to get a hold of their customer lists to sell them perpetuum mobile, magic pyramids that cure cancer and a "teleporter" that I am developing right now ;-)

Good luck with your blog. I am now ordering a Phenom 100 ...

73 comments:

Gunner said...

Another spurned lover, sporadically spewing spurious hatred and lies.

I think it's time we lump all these vendors, depositors, investors and employees into one group so that we might attach a convenient Newspeak label to them. It'd certainly make our own morning Allegiance Pledges more efficient.

I submit that, from this day forward, they should be referred to for what they are: Disgrunts


Alternatively, we might read this latest as a word of advice to Eclipse. The easy money is off the table, guys; the fast nickels have been picked up. Time to enter the Real World of competition.
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Nahhhhhhh. Just a bunch of Disgrunts, I tell you.
Gunner

EA50 said...

DayJet awaits first ‘digital’ operating OK


The FAA completed validation flights last month for DayJet’s fleet of 12 Eclipse 500s, bringing the company one step closer to launching the first fully digital operation. The company has designed an operating system–affectionately known as “Hal”–that manages its day-to-day operations and all requirements for the Part 135 certificate. The system–which has four million lines of code and was written over a period of four years by 30 full-time programmers–eliminates the need for paper documents and manual logs and, most important, human intervention.

“Everything that’s done by hundreds and hundreds of people inside an airline or an air carrier is done by computer,” DayJet president and CEO Ed Iacobucci told AIN, explaining that the system manages everything from making reservations to filing the flight plan and transmitting the information to pilots via their electronic flight bag (EFB). “It doesn’t sound like much, but it’s really a quantum leap when you integrate it all.”

In addition to storing all the information DayJet needs to operate, such as maintenance logs, flight logs and crew availability and qualifications, the system also incorporates real-time data into the flight plans. “Things happen, as they always do,” Iacobucci said. “Flights are late, passengers don’t show, airports are closed, weather cells [develop]. Any one of those changes will feed right into the system, and it tries to fix everything within the parameters that we set up.” The parameters, Iacobucci explained, are more stringent than what the FAA requires. DayJet crews have 11-hour duty days, while the FAA allows 14-hour duty days, for example.

“It’s a safe system,” he said. “When you’re looking at flight releases, there are literally dozens and dozens of things to check. If we don’t have a safe flight, safe aircraft, safe crew or [approved] passengers, the system just won’t release [the flight plan].”

Human intervention will be needed only if the system can’t find a solution to an issue that doesn’t meet DayJet’s commitments to safety, regulatory constraints or customer needs, Iacobucci said. In such a case, the flight information will be transmitted to an operational control center in Atlanta, which is staffed by a crew of seven people. “I’m not trying to imply that this is all run by Hal,” Iacobucci said. “The system does all the things that are routine. [The] people in the control center manage the exceptions.”

What makes the system unique, however, is that the same seven people will oversee the operation regardless of how many aircraft are operating. “The power of the digital [operating] certificate isn’t even going to be evident until we start scaling,” Iacobucci said. “Our objective is to launch with seven people in the control center and about 10 airplanes. By the time we have 100 airplanes flying in the fleet, we will still have seven people in the control center, not thousands of people like other operations.”

More at http://tinyurl.com/ypf25u

Gunner said...

Hal?

So much more fitting than Astro.

Hal's a good name. I like it, because life is nothing without irony.
Gunner

Black Tulip said...

You're making a good decision to buy a Phenom 100. According to one of their salesmen, Embraer has sold 450 and the number is still climbing.

Now tell us more about your perpetuum mobile.

Black Tulip

ExEclipser said...

This blog is like the perverbial man standing outside a car dealership with a sandwich signboard saying "Don't Buy Here" because they had a bad experience. Could be legit; Could be a hoax. Who knows?

I would never attempt to dissuade anyone from believing that the executives at this company are some of the most pompous brats I've ever had the displeasure of being around. But there are arrogant SOBs at EVERY aviation company. Problem with Eclipse is that they're so small that the Public sees much more of them.

I wish the Board would ask Vern to shut up and play solitare in his office with the door closed - or at least spend his time doing something useful like yelling at Ken Harness for being a liar.

Head-On. I hate their ad, but I love their product.

(yes, I can see where people can take THAT comment)

Stan Blankenship said...

execlipser,

It was my call to leave his name off the post.

Hi Stan,

Great to see the blog up, and if you want, do not hesitate to publish my name as well.

And thanks for correcting my typos ;-)

Again, all the best of luck!

421Jockey said...

Black Tulip said:
"According to one of their salesmen, Embraer has sold 450 and the number is still climbing."

Your double standards amuse me. If a believer has made a comment like that the critics would be coming out of teh woodwork to ask for "proof" and "specific names"

The double standard continues......

airtaximan said...

421,

not exactly..

if e-clips said they had 450 orders, I think we'd all be cool with that!

regarding embraer, do you doubt their order book?

I would probably be curious about the number for orders from Magnum Jet and JetBird... I cannot remember other fleet customers, but these may be pumping up the number. Jetbird in europe seems to be extrememly qualified, having a lot of operating expereince, and being backed by a private bank, and the guy who ran Royal Bank of scotland's aircraft finance department, I believe. Memory isn;t alway perfect. The Magnum Jet is backed by Millionair, a long standing FBO chain, with substantial experience.

Any clue a to the total number of orders and any options from these two? Any others?

This is the sort of scrutiny the order book gets from me. That's how I determined that Dayjet was around half e-clips' claimed 2500 orders and options, while they were claiming Dayjet accounted for 229 plus 70 options.

The orderbook numbers may be significant, but for embraer, less os - I do not think a $3 million VLJ made by a world leading aircraft manufacturer is subject to the same order book risks as e-clips at 41.5, with a stated B/E of 500 units per year, and a development spend of $1.x billion.

You agree?

PS. I hear embraer is spending around $275 million for BOTH the Phenom 100 and 300 jets... just as a point of reference for orders/price/volume sensitivity.

421Jockey said...

AT,

No, I do not agree. I have seen nothing demonstrated here or elsewhere that shows that a salesman's opinion from Embraer has any more validity than anything else that I have seen on this blog.

A perfect example of this is your statement that you "hear" Embraer is only spending $275 million to develop both jets. Did you hear that from Stan, WT, or Gunner?

My point is that maybe we should all acknowledge that information should be presented as FACT, SPECULATION, or a PURE GUESS.

This protocol, of course, would apply to both sides.

Black Tulip said...

421jockey,

I was looking the Embraer sales manager right in the eye. We were sitting in the Phenom 100 cabin mockup. He said they have orders for 450 aircraft. I've known the man for over a year. I believe him. You don't have to. Just as I don't have to believe much of what I hear and read about Eclipse.

Black Tulip

Gunner said...

421-
Have we become so dumbed down that we refuse reasonable conclusion based on observation and comparison. Must everything be spoon fed to us, before we agree to engage our brains? Do we then call it "fact". How do we know it's a "fact"? Who provided the "fact".

The question is whether a claim of 450 Phenoms ordered is reasonable. Based on interest in and sales of the Mustang, the value of the Phenom 100 in charter ops, traditional sales of new model jets and Embraer's reputation, one would have to conclude, "Yes, that's reasonable". Sure, you could be off by 50 or 100 units, but you're close enough for discussion purposes.

Similarly, the claim of $275 million to certify sister jets. Do we have to wait for an IRS Audit, before we can evaluate this as reasonable? Adam, a complete startup, had raised about $300 mill at the point that it had a twin prop certified and a twinjet nigh onto that point. Doesn't matter if you like the Adam offerings.

We've heard numbers <$200 million to develop aircraft like the Mustang. Given the fact that much of Cessna ad Embraer's overhead is already fixed and spread over other models, $275 Million is hardly unreasonable.

If someone had said the same for the HondaJet, I'd question the numbers. Honda is building a unique aircraft and they see the development costs of getting it perfect as an investment in a complete new manufacturing market.

Honestly, if The Faithful are to be believed in their demands for Perfect Knowledge, it'd be a wonder if ANY of you ever went into your own business. You'll simply NEVER get all the "facts" to create a pro-form to two decimal places.

Gunner

airtaximan said...

421,

I see your point regarding the "I heard ...$275 million..."

FYI, sometimes when I say "I heard" I mean, I read somewhere in Embraer published statements... so I can look it up and if I find it, and if I can post it, I will.

Do you think they spent a lot more?

Black Tulip said...

This from Embraer’s second quarter press release, dated August 14, 2007, and available at their website:

“Executive jet sales kept the good performance observed since the beginning of the year for all aircraft offered by the Company. The Phenom 100 and Phenom 300 have achieved great market acceptance, overcoming 460 firm orders. At the end of 2Q07, Embraer’s firm order backlog had reached a record high US$15.6 billion.”

Embraer is a publicly-held company and would be subject to serious penalties if they misrepresented their order book.

I don't know the breakdown between models or what orders may have been booked since the end of the quarter.

Black Tulip

421Jockey said...

AT,

Yes, I do believe that even an established company like Embraer would have to pay more than $275 million to develop and certify 2 jets with as much new design and technology as the 100 and 300.

Although similar, the 2 models are very different in many ways. It is not like the 300 is just a "stretched" 100.

We will never know how much development cost is buried in the R&D budget of a large company like Embraer, but we do know that Eclipse as no such fund to absorb these costs. Therefore I feel it is not realistic to compare costs to certify a new aircraft for new companies like Eclipse or Adam vs. established companies with many current models in production.

I see that BT & Gunner were quick to jump me, but I am just trying to keep things in perspective. I would not have ever brought it up if Ken did not get challenged for the validity of every statement that he makes on this blog.

airtaximan said...

421 jockey,

check out slide 51 (maybe 52)

http://www.ciber.business.
ku.edu/students/
grip_presentation_2005.pdf

$235 million... I was wrong.

$275 million is the order placed by Magnum if all options are exercised..

Later.

421Jockey said...

AT,

Now that is much more impressive that "hearing" about $$ being spent.

Good job digging up that data.

Whether it is true or not, it sure makes good backup.

Gunner said...

421-
I wasn't personally attacking and apologize if you saw it that way.

My point was that "give me proof" only goes so far. There's very little "proof" of anything in investment circles.

You're quite correct that Eclipse shouldn't be compared to Cessna or Embraer, in terms of costs to certification. But we can certainly compare them to companies like Adam and Epic. Unfortunately, the investments raised by Epic are a pretty tight secret. Adam isn't; and Eclipse has spent well over 3X the investment that Adam has.

Thats a data point.
Gunner

421Jockey said...

Gunner,

Looks like Epic doesn't have a problem with cash now. ANN reported yesterday that Kingfisher CEO invests $200 million in Epic.

(sorry, I don't know how to point the link)

Gunner said...

Thanks, 421-
Here's the link
Gunner

airtaximan said...

421,

don't believe everything you read!

looks good to me, though...

Despite what a couple of folks like to think on this blog, I do not pull stuff out of my butt.

Its a blog - take it, or leave it.

cj3driver said...

The factory price a new fully loaded E500, is now $1,991,664 for delivery in Q3'09. add 50K for 2010 CPI and interest on your 60% deposit of $40,000 and a 2010 Eclipse comes in at $2,081,000.

A new 2010 Mustang is $2.99M

Is $900K differance in price going to keep Eclipse is business?

Stan Blankenship said...

cj3driver,

Glad you checked in.

Have an e-mail from a guy in Russia who has some questions on the CJ3.

Send me an e-mail and I will forward his msg.

eclipsecritic@earthlink.net

bill e. goat said...

"Good luck with your blog. I am now ordering a Phenom 100 ..."

...Did he get to keep the autographed picture of Vern???

Shane Price said...

Gunner,

Eclipse don't NEED any more mugs, sorry, customers.

Anytime they need more money, Vern digs it up from the existing fools, sorry, investors.

And/or he sends the Die Hards another round of 'regress payment' sorry, 'progress payment'
demands.

The poor deluded chap who tried to buy an aircraft from them, well, his fault for not reading this blog!

Reading Ken would have convinced him that Eclipse had no further need for more customers.

Hang on, Ken never said that. Sorry Ken.

Won't happen again.

Too often, anyway....

Stan,

Just like I said in the last thread. The only people with money in 'New Europe' are a few Russians.

And they want CJ3's, not tiddly little jets like the E499.5.

Keep up the good work. It might seem, from time to time, that we are not putting much in.

But...

Trust me, most of us get a whole lot out!

Thanks.

Shane

Niner Zulu said...

CJ3driver,
With only $900k difference, you make a very compelling case to buy a Mustang over an Eclipse.

The only flaw in your logic - you'd have to be a fool to order a 2010 Eclipse for 2 reasons: 1. the company that has been teetering on the brink of bankruptcy for quite some time now, and 2. you can buy an Eclipse resale position for 2008-10 for much less than what you'd pay from the factory.

rcflyer said...

I've created a new blog as an experiment:

http://eclipse500.blogspot.com

My first post should explain it.

R.C.

Gunner said...

Best of luck with the new site, RC.
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

niner zulu wrote,

"CJ3driver,
With only $900k difference, you make a very compelling case to buy a Mustang over an Eclipse."


It might be except that CJ3 didn't get the numbers quite right.

He spec'd the Eclipse with duplicate options, options not available on the Mustang (Stormscope, radar altimeter, and Electronic Flightbag), and options nobody in the U.S. needs (ADF and DME).

If you spec the Eclipse properly, the pricing is $1.870M in 2009 dollars or about $1.926M in 2010 dollars. (It could be $100K less if you didn't want the LX interior and a few other options that are nice but not essential.)

CJ3 also got the price of the Mustang wrong. It's now $2.495M in August 2002 dollars. You need to add $33K in options to make it a fair comparison to the Eclipse. And you need to adjust for CPI. Do all that, and the actual price is about $3.116M.

The Mustang actually costs almost $1.2 million more than the Eclipse when comparably equipped. That's 62% more!

Mustang's a great plane; I love it. But it is 62% more upfront and about 40% more every mile you fly it. If you need the larger interior, external storage, 100 lbs or so of full-fuel payload and peace-of-mind that comes from going with a Cessna, than it's worth it. But for a lot of people the difference is too much for the extras you get.

Heck, the $1.2 million alone is about $90,000 more every single year in higher debt service and higher insurance premiums. And that ignores the fact that the Mustang burns, on average, about 35% more than the Eclipse.

Those are not trivial differences for those of us earn our money the old-fashioned way.

BTW, have you all priced the Phenom 100? That's also a really nice plane for about the same price as the Mustang, yet we never seem to get around to talking about it for some reason.

Ken

Gunner said...

Did we mention that the Eclipse comes with with Avio NG, the system that would have saved Thurmon Munson's life?

We really should mention that. ;-)

Agree with Ken that Embraer's probably the REAL 600lb gorilla in the VLJ industry. With Eclipse holding the Economy Class position and Mustang cornering the Business Class niche, that leaves Embraer and HondaJet vying for customers willing to pay for First Class.

(That's a personal opinion, not a "fact")
Gunner

gadfly said...

The argument continues about a “paper clips”, a little flying thing that does everything. And “once upon a time”, Frank Sinatra sang a song that may become most significant:

“Oh, it’s a long, long while from May to December
But the days grow short when you reach September
When the Autumn weather turns the leaves to flame
One hasn’t got time for the waiting game

Oh, the days dwindle down to a precious few
September, November
And these few precious days Ill spend with you
These precious days Ill spend with you.”

Your love affair with the little jet . . . enjoy it while you can.

gadfly

(Remember Frank? . . . he said he’d do it “his way” . . . Remember Vern?)

Black Tulip said...

"...have you all priced the Phenom 100?"

Yesiree, and it looks to be a very nice plane. The conventional wisdom is that it will be a CJ1 with updated avionics for a million dollars less than Cessna's price. Early depositors appear to be well in the money. Deliveries are scheduled to start late next year. Embraer is scaling up to service the aircraft in this country.

Black Tulip

airtaximan said...

"Those are not trivial differences for those of us earn our money the old-fashioned way."

Ohh, the one's who can afford to buy a Mustang for their wives...to go along with thei e-clip (the MANly plane for the MAN!) but cannot afford the extra fuel for just the Mustang!

Gotta LOVE this guy!

Niner Zulu said...

Yes, Ken, I have looked at the Phenom 100 also. It is at the top of the food chain and beats the Mustang hands down, IMHO.

I even have a model of it sitting on my desk from the Embraer rep. I came this close "|" to putting a deposit on one. The wife even gave me the go-ahead. Our price would have been $2.75m + CPI adjustments.

So why didn't I go for it? Well, for one the delivery date of late 2009. It was 3 years away at the time. The deposit schedule turned me off, as did the fact I would have to take delivery in Brazil and then "import" the aircraft into the US. The deposit was non-refundable. Add in the opportunity cost of loss of use of my deposit money, the CPI adjustments and delivery costs and it was looking to be a $3.2m+ plane. Can't remember the exact number I came up with but it was higher than I really wanted or needed to go.

So far, I have taken my own advice, which is "cash is king". Wait awhile, and - just like a taxi - the right deal will come along.

Gunner said...

AT-
Pretty much everybody in the VLJ class earned their money "the old fashioned way". That seems to go for ALL the bloggers here.

"The old fashioned way" a code phrase for "I have money but I really deserve to be 'filthy' rich like those CJ3 owners."

In my experience, people in every economic class are the same. Some are happy with their homes, cars and toys and describe them for what they are. Others are kinda envious and sorta jealous; they insist on comparing their Ford Taurus to a Lexus or their Lexus to a Lamborghini.

I've never understood it. There's ALWAYS a class that can afford what you could not dream. And,at the end of the day, there's nothing wrong with your Ford Taurus. So long as you don't regale me with explanations as to how it's every bit as good as a Lexus or Lamborghini.

This is NOT personal opinion; it's a FACT of life.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

G,

I'm just happy to be here...

Black Tulip said...

Remember the good ol’ days on the blog? It used to be fun. But then parodies and satire came under fire as mean spirited and off-topic.

Lately we’ve been restricted to strictly factual submissions. I’ve had to hire a fact checker to confirm the veracity of each of my posts. Political correctness has descended upon on us.

As Pink Floyd asked in song… “Is There Anybody Out There?”

Black Tulip

HotDog said...

BT,

I thought that was Pink Floyd but I could be wrong :)

HD

WhyTech said...

BT sais:

"As Pink Floyd asked "

Pink who?

Black Tulip said...

Hotdog,

You're right of course. My fact checker had the night off.

Black Tulip

Gunner said...

Requiem to a Depositor?
Great choice of lyrics, BT. A one-way conversation between a "handler" and a force-fed junkie.

"Hello,
Is there anybody in there
Just smile if you can hear me
Is there anybody home?

Come on, now,
I hear you're feeling, down
I can ease your pain
And get you on your feet again
.
.
O.K.
Just a little pin prick
There'll be no more aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
But you'll feel a little sick
Can you stand up?
I do believe it's working, good
That'll keep you going through the show
Come on it's time to go"

Gunner

AlexA said...

ATM said “check out slide 51 (maybe 52)”

Yup, definitive information that Embraer only spent $100 on R&D on the Phenom series in 2004. “This is an 8-week, 8-credit, intensive set of MBA courses that includes a short-term study abroad experience.” The even learn to speak Portuguese in the eight weeks. I know everyone is struggling for facts but even this is a stretch.

flyforfun said...

I can account for one of the Phenom 100 orders, mine. I can also say that everyone I have dealt with so far at Embraer are top notch. They answer all my questions and send me pictures of the progress almost weekly. The Phenom 100 is by far a much better deal for the money over the Mustang. You get a cabin that is larger than a CJ1 and many of the bells and whistles offered by Embraer on their Legacy series. Top of the line for my money. Whats more I have no doubt they will deliver what they have promised. That peace of mind is worth a lot.

airtaximan said...

Alexa...

sorry you didn't believe me, or the source... here's another...

"At the time of the announcement on 3 May 2005, Embraer said that development of the Phenom 100 and Phenom 300 will cost 235 million US-Dollars, to be funded by the partners, financial institutions and the companies cash."

http://www.flug-revue.rotor.com/
FRtypen/FRPhe100.htm

funny how you'll defend Vern after 10 years of BS, and you won't even trust an honest poster, who cites an independent source.

curious..

..especially considering my track record here. Perhaps your trust has been misplaced?

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

ATM-
You're a liar, plain and simple.

If it has taken Vern $1.5 BILLION dollars to ALMOST certified an aircraft, how are we to believe some Dinosaur company could accomplish the same feat for 1/8th the investment?

Liar. Hater. Spewer.

"There will be consequences!".
Gunner

airtaximan said...

flyforfun,

Can you provide payload-range information for the 100 and 300?

Thanks

Ken Meyer said...

AT wrote,

"If it has taken Vern $1.5 BILLION dollars"

And your source for that?

Personally, I think it is complete B.S.

Show me any reliable source that says Eclipse spent $1.5 billion developing the EA500--this is prototype urban legend.

Ken

EA50 said...

Linear Air to Revolutionize Air Travel by Flying First Very Light Jet in the Northeast

CONCORD, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Linear Air, the premier air-taxi service that is revolutionizing personal air transportation, has announced the anticipated first flight of their Eclipse 500 Very Light Jet (VLJ) for mid-September. This flight will mark the first customer trip for a VLJ in the Northeast by the Concord, MA based air-taxi service, headed by President and CEO Bill Herp.

The Eclipse 500, manufactured by Albuquerque, New Mexico based Eclipse Aviation Corporation, is the first of a new class of aircraft called Very Light Jets, or VLJ’s. The cutting edge technology on board this revolutionary aircraft cuts the cost of personal jet travel in half, making private air travel accessible to millions more than currently in existence. The Eclipse 500 cruises at over 400 miles per hour, accommodates 4 passengers with 2 pilots, and has a range of over 1,000 miles.

By adding this jet to their fleet, Linear Air strives to make private jet travel more accessible to a wide-range of businesspeople, with prices not far above commercial airlines’ first-class or last-minute fares. Over the next two years, Linear Air’s VLJ fleet will grow to 30, allowing the company to expand its existing propjet service within point-to-point 500-mile regional networks around major metropolitan areas.

“We could not be more excited to be the first air-taxi service in the Northeast to offer service on this revolutionary jet,” says Bill Herp, President and CEO of Linear Air. “The fact is, this VLJ and the additional fleet we’ve ordered will make a seamless transition into our current business model allowing customers immediate access to cutting-edge aviation.”

Currently, Linear Air operates the largest on-demand fleet of executive Cessna Grand Caravan propjets in the U.S. With the addition of this first VLJ and another three by the end of the year for a total of four in 2007, Linear Air will continue to provide customers the ability to set a custom schedule with attractive fares, convenience and flexibility, now with additional speed and efficiency - a “car service with wings” type experience.

Linear Air is planning a launch event with its first customer aboard the VLJ later this month. Local dignitaries, officials from the Massachusetts Port Authority and Hanscom Field Airport (a Linear Air base of operations), will join Herp to celebrate this historic occasion.

airtaximan said...

Alexa, before you reveal your self as a Doubting Thomas to posts by a critic, just becasue it is a post by a critic of e-clips...perhaps you should think twice..

"Affonso said the company is investing $235 million to develop the two airplanes."

from 2005 November AIN

www.embraerexecutivejets.com
/english/inc/df.asp
caminho=download/pdf/
reprint_ain_nov2005.pdf

Is this a good source, or do you need to ask Vern?

airtaximan said...

Ken... check your FACTS, I never wrote that.... Mr. nit picker

I do believe if you add up all the progress payments, all the money rasied and borrowed, you'll come close to $1.5 billion.

I always write $1.x billion... who knows really?

But, I did not write THAT... check your FACTS, Ken.

Niner Zulu said...

Flyforfun, way to go! Did you buy from Eagle Creek? You're right about the Phenom 100 - actually I think it is better than a CJ1+ in a lot of ways. A tad more than what I want to spend, but who knows. I may end up ante'ing up anyway.

airtaximan said...

Gunner,

someone better pass out the angina meds, again this evening. AMAZING...

"Ken Meyer said...
AT wrote,

"If it has taken Vern $1.5 BILLION dollars"

And your source for that?

Personally, I think it is complete B.S.

Show me any reliable source that says Eclipse spent $1.5 billion developing the EA500--this is prototype urban legend.

Ken"

... you were right, somehow they can't take it.

Guess what, you need to check your math, though... Embraer is doing 2 planes for that development cost!

EA50 said...

"Is this a good source, or do you need to ask Vern?"

Embraer predicted in 2005, right when they announced the Phenom 100 program, that it would cost them $235 million.

And you think that means that's what it will actually cost them after they finish the program.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!

Perhaps you'll tell us what Eclipse predicted the EA500 would cost. Or what the SJ30 was supposed to cost. Or a hundred other planes. Only a simpleton would take the pre-development estimate and tout it as proof of the post-development bottom line!!

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

Ken asked:
"Show me any reliable source that says Eclipse spent $1.5 billion developing the EA500"

I am so very sorry, Ken. The number may be as low as $1.1 Billion Dollars, silly me. I base my estimate on common knowledge, press releases and your Progress Payment which disappeared 6 months back. Other than your spent Progress Payment, I really have no "facts" that you can verify. ;-)

At this stage, however, $400 mill (give or take) is pocket change to guys like you?

Now, tit-for-tat, tell us what you think Eclipse has burned to nearly certify a jet.

Barring that, "Show me any reliable source that says" you are really Ken Meyer and not a computer bot doll that Vern winds up each morning.

See how easy and silly this "Show-Me Game" is, Brother Ken?
Gunner

Ken Meyer said...

gunner wrote,

"I am so very sorry, Ken. The number may be as low as..."

As low as what?

It doesn't matter. You did it again:

Prevaricate, exaggerate, fabricate.

I don't believe you any more because you've been caught so many times. I'm sure I'm not alone.

Sad, really.

Ken

airtaximan said...

ea50,

did I say in the end that's what they will spend?

Geez, another madman...

"PS. I hear embraer is spending around $275 million for BOTH the Phenom 100 and 300 jets... just as a point of reference for orders/price/volume sensitivity."

my post that started this, and I was told I needed more than "I heard" and accused of it being heard from Stan or another blogger.

You do not have to be a nasty contrarian... Whatever it WILL cost to develop the 2 planes at embraer, it will cost. So far, they say it will cost $235 million, and guess what, I believe them

Its only after 10 years of VErn's BS that he deserves to be considered wrong, exaggerating and way off the mark.

Embraer, so far, does not deserve to be doubted like that.

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

Gunner,

If you addd up all of Vern's PR on financing, and the number of positions called for progress payments... its north of a Billion..

heck in the last year or so, its more than $500 million.

- were they exaggerating in the PR?
- were they not serious in calling the progress payments?
- are the SEC disclosure docs wrong?

forget Ken providing any details or even his opinion on how much Vern burned... so far. Its so painful for him personally to know his money was burnt a long time ago... he probably can't even face it, really.

He just want's to write, "you are wrong" as often as possible.

I'm sure he's typing with his nose, while his fingers are wedged in his ears.

mouse said...

EA50,

I'm not going to tell you the cost estimates from Embraer won't climb a bit, however big difference between Embraer who has a very big history and knowledge base compared to Sino and/or Eclipse.

Not even in the same universe, let alone ballpark.

sparky said...

AT asked:

"Can you provide payload-range information for the 100 and 300?"

who bother, we all know that as soon as it's posted, it will shortly followd by:

"that's not quite right"
or
"yes, but compared to the value proposition of......"
or
"where's your proof"
or
"...once you add in the CPI..."

Or a thousand other things that prove beyond the shadow of doubt that unless you sned in your progress payment right now....

sparky said...

RC,

something's wrong with the Blog. Can't post.

cj3driver said...

9Z said;

“With only $900k difference, you make a very compelling case to buy a Mustang over an Eclipse. The only flaw in your logic - you'd have to be a fool to order a 2010 Eclipse for 2 reasons: 1. the company that has been teetering on the brink of bankruptcy for quite some time now, and 2. you can buy an Eclipse resale position for 2008-10 for much less than what you'd pay from the factory.”

9Z,

I agree. In fact, I am puzzled why anyone would consider purchasing a position at all. Even at a $200K discount below factory price, most of the equity gained on the lower price will be eaten up in capital risk on the premium and deposits until delivery.

The safer bet for an Eclipse die-hard is to purchase a completed (?) airplane.

cj3driver said...

EA50 announced:

“Linear Air to Revolutionize Air Travel by Flying First Very Light Jet in the Northeast”

A quick look on Linear’s website shows….

A 300 mile day trip on the E500 … $3,590

The competition?
300 miles in a King Air … $2,500
300 miles in a CJ1 …. $3,500
(two hour daily minimum)

The revolution is .... ?

Eclipse stock just took another hit.

AlexA said...

BOCA RATON, Fla.—September 5, 2007—DayJet Corporation announced today that its subsidiary, DayJet Services, LLC, received authorization from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to use Eclipse 500™ very light jets (VLJs) in its operations. DayJet Services is the holder of an on-demand air carrier certificate from the FAA authorizing operations under Part 135 of the FAA’s regulations. The company is preparing to use its fleet of VLJs to launch the world’s first “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet service.
“This milestone is the culmination of more than five years of dedicated work to develop the world’s first fully automated fleet operations system,” said Ed Iacobucci, DayJet president and CEO. “We are incredibly grateful to the dedicated FAA teams that have worked alongside DayJet to reach this critical moment in our company’s history.”
In the coming weeks, DayJet will begin activating member accounts via its online reservation system, allowing members to book reservations and fly. The company will gradually increase its active member base as it expands its operations and its VLJ fleet. This measured approach enables DayJet to monitor the daily progress of operations and to ensure the highest levels of customer service and fleet availability.

About DayJet
DayJet is the pioneer of a new type of regional travel: “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet service that is uniquely tailored to accommodate the flight time requested by each customer and priced at a modest premium to full-fare coach airfares. Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, DayJet has developed this new industry’s first real-time operations system. Combined with the speed and efficiency of Eclipse 500 very light jet (VLJ) aircraft, DayJet has created the next major advance in corporate productivity and regional economic development. For more information, visit www.dayjet.com.

DayJet’s “Per-Seat, On-Demand” business jet service is operated by DayJet Corporation’s wholly owned subsidiary, DayJet Services, LLC, an air carrier registered with the Department of Transportation and the holder of an on-demand air carrier certificate from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorizing operations under Part 135 of the FAA’s regulations under Title 49, Subtitle VII, of the United States Code.

airsafetyman said...

Actually Eclipse spent $1.98 on the development of the EA500. How else do you get an airplane that will carry two pilots and a small passenger (or large dog) 800 miles?

EclipseBlogger said...

Cabbie said... If you addd up all of Vern's PR on financing, and the number of positions called for progress payments... its north of a Billion..

Cabbie, not all money raised were spent directly in development and manufacturing aspects of the program. There have been several rounds of DEBT financing, bridge loans, etc, that were repaid from followup rounds raised. The actual numbers spent are obviously not that clear to the outsider. Sorry, but you cannot simply add up all of the announcements. I agree the amount spent is obscene, but the numbers are less than those tossed about here.

WhyTech said...

eb said:

" the numbers are less than those tossed about here. "

So, is anyone taking into account the "soft" dollars committed to the E-clips program - like the buildings paid for by NM, tax relief, the R&D dollars spent by vendors to meet unique E-clips specs, etc, etc. Bet the total E-clips progam, with all things considered, rounds up or down to $2 billion in economic commitments. Prove it isnt so.

WT

ExEclipser said...

So, let's look a bit closer at Embraer's finances and really compare it to Vern's.

Embraer has been in operation since 1969. Eclipse, 1998.

For 25 years, the company was backed by the Brazillian government which owned 51%. Eclipse gets a few tax subsidies and some miniscule amount of government investment.

Embraer almost completely folded when the government had to pull out because the WTO said the subsidies were illegal.

Embraer now has the third largest order book in the industry behind Boeing and Airbus.

And you want to compare their development costs with a startup? Never mind that their labor rate is probably 1/3 of Eclipse's. Never mind that most of their engineering is already on staff. Never mind that they have an established set of processes.

That all being said, Embraer is a great company. I have no complaints about their success. So is Cessna, and you can bet they spent probably less than a 1/4 of what Eclipse did to develope the Mustang for many of the same reasons. Yes, Embraer also did it in a time frame closer to Cessna than Eclipse - the benefit of being established.

It's damn hard for a start up to make it in this industry. When was the last time a company that didn't exist or wasn't a part of a larger corporation delivered 42 aircraft in 9 months after being in existence for 9 years? Adam? Not yet. Saffire? HA! Sino? Phbbt. Cirrus? Maybe close... Diamond? Possible... But a Jet? Maybe would have to go all the way back to ... BILL LEAR?

WhyTech said...

CJ3 said:

"300 miles in a King Air … $2,500"

In a King Air you would save no more than 15-20 minutes on a 300nm trip, and you could actually take a few people and lots of baggage. Is 15 minutes worth an additional $1000? I dont think so.

WT

Stan Blankenship said...

WT & execlipser,

Good points from all.

Can you bring them up against the next post?

WhyTech said...

eb said:

"When was the last time a company that didn't exist or wasn't a part of a larger corporation "

Try Robinson Helicopter. Largest helo manuf. in the world (unit volume), with total units per year greater than all the others COMBINED.

WT

rcflyer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.