Monday, September 17, 2007

Expectations

The reason this blog exists is because Eclipse has historically set very high expectations for themselves, but continues to miss the expectations they've set for themselves by wide margins.

AeroObserver says that while 46 deliveries isn't the fairy tale promised by Vern a couple years ago, it is pretty good. And he is right, it is pretty good.

But a couple of years ago, the official Eclipse plan was to deliver 354 aircraft by the end of Sept 2007. We are more than 300 aircraft behind the plan from two years ago. But let’s look at what Vern promised even a couple months ago. The last public statement from Vern on deliveries (around Oshkosh 2007) was that Eclipse would deliver over 200 aircraft in 2007. In order to meet that expectation, Eclipse would have to make 154 deliveries in the next three months. I'd be surprised if anyone at Eclipse or even AlexA (the most optimistic of the faithful) believe there is any chance of that happening.

Now let's look at the expectations Eclipse set for serial #46. In May of 2000, when Eclipse accepted deposits for the first 160 aircraft, serial #46 was scheduled for delivery sometime in Q2/Q3 of 2004 at $837,500.

In February 2003, Eclipse sent a letter resetting expectations after the Williams engine change. At that time, customers were informed that the price of the aircraft would go from $837,500 to $950,000 for Platinum depositors and to $1,175,000 for others.

The aircraft specifications as detailed in that letter included: 375 kts, 1,280nm range, 2,250 lb. useful load, 26 cubic ft baggage space, full IFR, FMS, Dual GPS, IFR enroute and approach certified, FIKI, 3 axis autopilot and autothrottle.

In September 2003, Eclipse sent a letter resetting expectations that the E500 would now be certified "in first quarter of 2006, with customer deliveries commencing immediately thereafter." Serial #46 was now expected to be delivered in Q3 2006.

In May of 2005, 15 months prior to delivery, the price of the aircraft was changed from $950,000 to $995,000 for platinum depositors and to $1,295,000 in June 2000 dollars for new customers.

In June of 2006, customers received another letter. At that time, Vern promised that Type Certification was only a few weeks away and that “the jet we deliver will be certified for day/night, IFR/VFR flight with the full envelope available. In addition, the aircraft will be certified for single pilot and RVSM operations.”

In that letter, Vern stated that some changes had been made to the production schedule but, “the maximum delivery change to any customer will be three months.” Max cruise was lowered to 370kts, stall speed raised to 69 kts, range lowered to 1,125nm. Useful load improved to 2,400 lbs, while the baggage space was reduced to 16 cubic ft.

Vern closed the letter by saying that “the Eclipse 500 still maintains its lead as the best value proposition in the history of general aviation.”

Mike McConnell sent a letter at the same time stating that the delivery schedule of the aircraft had changed to Q4 2006. Mike closed his letter by stating that “the Eclipse 500 is the best jet the world has ever seen”.

That letter included an Eclipse 500 Equipment Availability addendum that set expectations that aircraft delivered after Nov 2006 would be certified with full IFR, FMS, Dual GPS, IFR enroute and approach certified, FIKI, 3 axis autopilot, color radar, and Part 135 Package. Expectations were set that autothrottle, Int’l package, Stormscope, Skywatch, TAWS Class B and radar altimeter would all be retrofittable and available starting March of 2007.

Eclipse serial #46 was delivered in Sept 2007 without an FMS, without GPS, without FIKI, with a pitch hold autopilot, without a Part 135 package, without autothrottle, Stormscope, Skywatch, TAWS Class B, or radar altimeter.

The current expectations are that the pitot static fix will cut in around aircraft #65. That the windshield mods will cut in around serial #74. Avio NG is expected to cut in between serial #100 and serial #134, but will not have full functionality at initial deployment. Initial production effectivity of Avio NG is likely to be four to six months from now based that plan and on current production ramp rate.

Thanks to flightcenter for the recap.

66 comments:

gadfly said...

Based on the update of promised performance, the prediction of "zero" deliveries by year end is a no brainer.

gadfly

Gunner said...

JetAburner asked a question as regards aviation experience. Many Critics and one position holder responded honestly. Mirage lied.

How about Redtail, EA-50 and Alexa (assuming they're different people) step up and tell the class a bit about yourselves. I think we'd all agree that it's germane to the discussion at hand.
Gunner

mirage00 said...

JetAburner asked a question as regards aviation experience. Many Critics and one position holder responded honestly. Mirage lied.

I have answered the question honestly. Time to move on Gunner, I'm even embarrased for you now.

I remain amused!

double 00

Gunner said...

You really wanna push this, Anthony?

OK....you owned a Malibu Mirage 11 years ago? We already know your name is Anthony Infranco (and a bit more than that). You should have no problem providing the SN and/or Tail Number to demonstrate your veracity.

Then you can tell us how old you were, 11 years ago.

Tick-Tock.
Gunner

Stan Blankenship said...

One additional Eclipse commitment was to achieve approval for FIKI (Flight Into Known Icing) within one year after Type Certification.

That milestone is now less then two weeks away and will surely be missed by several months.

The significance of this is that it puts Eclipse in default according to their Deposit Agreement (page 5, footnote 'B').

While not intended as a legal opinion, one might assume this would constitute a 'Refund Event' (page 2, paragraph J.) and provide a contractual escape for any buyer having second thoughts.

mirage00 said...

You really wanna push this, Anthony?

I have ignored ALL of your repeated references and remarks, yet you say I'm pushing this? Like I said before, I do really think it's time to move on and discuss our favorite paper airplane again.

I remain amused

double 00

Gunner said...

Don't want to answer the questions, Anthony? Why on earth not? I mean what's the harm of you and me telling everyone your age when you bought YOUR first Mirage?

Gunner

gadfly said...

Gunner

The people in question have already revealed far more than they intended. Leave them alone . . . it’s really not worth your time and energy. Patience is the key . . . sooner or later they’ll reveal themselves . . . but just be patient. They want “attention” . . . they’ll go to any length to achieve it.

In the mean time, we’ll learn far more about the little jet than Vern wants anyone to know.

Patience, my friend . . . Patience! It’s amazing what I have learned by hunting snakes. In the mean time, I enjoy just sitting, and watching. And then, in an instant . . . ! A single shot is all it takes. Patience!

gadfly

('Just since my last comment, I've learned much . . . Patience.)

rcflyer said...

Whytech,

Welcome back.

How are you liking your Enstrom? The more I look at them, the more impressed I am.

R.C.

Gunner said...

Gadfly-
I respect you and, in this, of course you're right. It's just interesting timing to me when someone who has yet to discuss anything about the Eclipse suddenly comes out with, "I do really think it's time to move on and discuss our favorite paper airplane again."

Make you a deal, Mirage:
I'll let it go, if you'll agree to discuss the aircraft and company; rather than engaging in smirky, smarmy personal attacks that pretend to contain great wisdom and experience in the things unsaid.

You wanna talk about the aircraft? I'll interfere no further, until you revert to your habitual type "contributions".

That's the only deal on the table. Work for you?
Gunner

WhyTech said...

rcf said:

"How are you liking your Enstrom?"

Well, its not yet "my" Enstrom. I am renting a new 480B from a local owner while waiting for mine to be delivered (they say at the end of Nov). In any event, I am liking the Enstrom very much. I looked at the Bell 206, EuroCopter EC 120, and Robinson R44, and did some training in all but the EC 120 before making a decision. I found the E480 to be by far the most pilot friendly, and by far the best value among the light turbine helos. And, the safety record is outstanding, and local product support is superb.

WT

gadfly said...

Gunner

Mirage00/Anthony is pushing your buttons. Ignore him. But go on with your ideas and discussion as if he were not present. You have an audience . . . one less doesn't matter . . . the rest of us are listening (reading) . . . that's enough!

gadfly

(We respect your words more when you ignore the hecklers, the "jackels".)

Gunner said...

Jackals, Gad.
;-)

Nobody's pushed my buttons. I've been worked on by experts.

But I think Mirage and I have an understanding. For the record, he's never personally attacked me. I simply wish to see him engage the topic at hand, rather than the Drive-By disruptions.

Gunner

WhyTech said...

ief said:

"Fantastic post with lots of specifics that shows how far off base Eclipse is"

Very much so! It amazes me that the Faithful can be so casual about such gross departures from what has been "committed" by Vern and his co-conspiritors. When told with facts and no emotion, as flightcenter has so ably done, its a pretty damning account.

WT

gadfly said...

Gunner

(Thanks for the correction of the spelling . . . "jackals".)

The basic topic is Eclipse, and all that's related to the little jet that wanted to grow up to be a "real jet". Sometimes the personal attacks get in the way.

Back in college, we took a subject called "English Rhetoric" . . . and back then I began to realize how important it could be . . . keeping on subject, without being distracted by "red herrings", "straw men", etc. So, regardless of which side of the issue a "blogger" stands, sometimes his/her views are distorted by personal insults, etc.

And that is the reason for my recent comments. I am not a current pilot, but I was one "once", and was once active as an "A&P", but most of my life (outside the US Navy Submarine Service) has been in active aircraft manufacturing and related. So, I respect your views, and the views of others who are serious, in this discussion of the little jet.

'Pardon the sermon. 'Like others who read this blogsite, I wish to understand the basic issues, of both the design, and the philosophies which drive this attempt to change general aviation. Unfortunately, the personal egos often cloud the important issues. Eclipse will fail . . . that's a given. But understanding the reasons, beyond the obvious, are important to future generations of aviation innovation.

gadfly

EA50 said...

gunner: "Don't want to answer the questions, Anthony? Why on earth not? I mean what's the harm of you and me telling everyone your age when you bought YOUR first Mirage?"

What's the harm in you explaining how you happened to hit some poor lady while you were distracted? You couldn't multitask a phone and a car? How can you multitask a plane and an approach?

"On October 24, 2000, thirty-two (32) year old Jonna Mays was a seat-belted driver of a vehicle traveling north on Interstate I-95. Traffic began to slow and Ms. Mays slowed and came to a complete stop. The Defendant, Richard Lucibella, who was using his cell phone at the time, failed to notice the traffic slowing and rear ended Ms. Mays’ vehicle. The impact was sufficiently forceful to propel Jonna Mays’ vehicle into the vehicle in front of her. Despite conservative care Ms. Mays eventually required surgical intervention. Robert A. Zimmerman reached a settlement with Mr. Lucibella’ insurance carrier at mediation and just prior to trial for $1,750,000.00."

gadfly said...

EA50

What in the world has your attack on Gunner got to do with Eclipse? Does it make you feel somehow superior? And will your attack somehow make Eclipse succeed?

Me thinks that you have a problem! And this is not the place to solve it.

gadfly

WestWard said...

Ea50, Leave Luci alone. You'll make her cry.

EA50 said...

gadfly--

I'm tired of gunner's personal attacks. I'll bet everybody else is.

The guy doesn't get it. Personal attacks are out. Facts are in.

So, since he's too dumb to understand anything else, I'll just remind him with a refrain of "gunner hit some poor lady because he was talking on his phone and ran up a $1.75 million bill doing it" every time he gets out of line.

Maybe, in time, he'll get the message :-)

WhyTech said...

ea50 said:

"I'll just remind him with a refrain of "gunner hit some poor lady because he was talking on his phone and ran up a $1.75 million bill doing it" every time he gets out of line."

Please, stop being an idiot. This has no relevance to what this blog is about, and its says nothing of relevance about Gunner. Ever had an accident? Know what the word means? Leave it alone.

WT

gadfly said...

Yeh . . . he's too dumb, you're too dumb, I'm too dumb . . . we're all a bunch of comedians and don't "get it" . . . Ten thousand comedians out of work, and we're trying to be funny. . . whatever, but maybe someone has to just say, "Enough is enough" . . . and let it go. How much is my pride worth? . . . Actually, nothing! In fact, it was "pride" that got mankind into trouble in the beginning. If I have to defend my character, then I have a problem.

gadfly

(Just for once, let us attmept to discuss the subject without personal insult. Yes, it takes effort, but it can be done!)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Gad,

Let these maroons continue to make this sterling example of the Faithful Following for all the would-be buyers and press to see - let the customers decide which culture is in keeping with their values, their objectives, their belief systems, their sense of fair play, their sense of honorable behavior.

No search for Eclipse can avoid this blog, no would-be customer can say they did not know about this, it ranks higher than the Eclipse site itself in some searches.

So let them come, let them see the petty, bilious, hate-filled and fearful posts from the Faithful Following, many of which are eerily reminiscent of the well known outbursts of everyone's favorite formerly pot-bellied dictator (no I do not mean the Beloved Leader, Kim Jong-Il).

Let them see the twisted logic and mental gymnastics necessary to read FlightCenter's use of Vern and Eclipse's own words synched with the ongoing shortcomings and endless failures and still believe in this program.

Let us give them enough rope, they will handle the rest all by themselves.

EA50 said...

Whytech--

Oh, I think it is relevant.

The guy doesn't belong flying a plane, but he's telling everybody in the world what plane they ought to be buying.

And he's telling us we shouldn't listen to Mirage because--why was it exactly?--oh yes, because he sold his Mirage a while ago.

What a buffoon! And he's the prototype Eclipse Hater--forget the facts, just use personal attacks and lies.

gadfly said...

OK . . . I give up! Devour each other. Who said cannibalism is dead?

First cannibal . . . “I don’t like your mother-in-law!”

Second cannibal . . . “Then just eat the noodles!”

End of sermon.

gadfly

(Maybe she was "stir-fried".)

interested eclipse follower said...

Oh what fun. And we were all thinking Gunner was an aviation expert. The truth comes out. I think we would be best served if everyone focused on specific data driven posts, perhaps this will help kick Gunner off once an for all.

Richard Lucibella files injunction against for calling him “Dick H. Lucibella” and “D. Head Lucibella,”

http://www.4dca.org/May2007/05-09-07/4D06-1820.op.pdf

"Richard Lucibella is one of the country's foremost experts on military and police weapons, tactics, and training. He owns and publishes S.W.A.T. Magazine which, for 20 years, has been read by military and police tacticians and consultants in security from the private sector. Himself an expert marksman, Lucibella consults on issues of firearms and ordnance and is current with the most modern technology and techniques. PR: Charlotte Parker, 818-990-2252, jparkerpr@sbcglobal.net "

N624 Reserved:
http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/NNumSQL.asp?NNumbertxt=624

FlightCenter said...

Stan, BT, WT, IEF, and ColdWet,

Thank you for the comments.

One of my first bosses gave me this advice, "Listen to what they tell you, then watch what they do."

Bassmaster said...

What the heck happened of 20yr tech? I must say his dialogue was quite steely. After seeing no response I begin to ponder. Seems a sheetmetal specialist was upset with a "lead" or manager. With all of his experience why wasn't he a "lead"? When things go awry it's time to step to the plate and fix such! In retrospect how can one threaten to bring "media" exposure to one's employer and continue to collect a paycheck!? Beyond that...Mr. T's (alleged) aircraft comming down the line brought him to feel bad for the celeb's safety? This EUREKA moment of seeing sn 40something went beyond the evryday family folk that will/are mucking about the sky in their bits of kit. 20yr, is it Grease or Welcome Back...(love that theme song myself) that made you so interested in his safety? Sorry mate but sounds like your a small fish about to embark on a long journey through waters with bigger fish! When a blog is born about the EADS kit statistics show that you'll be there complaining if things don't go your way. As for many of the others on this blog try watching daytime soap opera shows to get your drama fix. Start talking about the + and - of the model itself...not who flies/owns/knows what and such. What if a G550 owner would be interested in knowing about the real dealings of the little jet?..would that make relevant info worthy? Insiders, PLEASE give the GOOD, BAD and UGLY!

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
WestWard said...

Gunner is about one thing, and one thing only - he didn't get his way when he put down a deposit, and now like a child, he's determined to make them pay for their "mistakes" - the mistreatment of Dick Lucibella.

Gunner will do anything, say anything, to make things seem worse than they are. Eclipse has problems, but they're making a go at it. Gunner on the other hand just feeds off these challenges and will stop at nothing. Perhaps we should ask him who locked him in the trunk of a Mercedes, and why. Gunner has a history of ego-precipitated court appearances. He has the same "look at me" mentality as OJ. It's that personality that got him locked in the trunk of a car, only to have to shoot his way out. And, he's so proud of it, he had to tell us all about it.

20yearmechanic portrayed a story of mismanagement, poor quality, and abuse. I'm sure in his mind all these accusations are true. Perhaps these are real situation and details. But, in a company of 1400 workers, there are always some that are expected to "not work out". In a comany of 1400, these are bound to be quality escapes. These issues were corrected by 20yearmec, that was his job. Personalities clash, people have egos, a lot of type "A"s in close proximity is like a spark looking for fire. If this were the norm at Eclipse, we would see more than just a handful of reports. This is a critics blog. Complaint are expected to be posted here. Where are the masses? This is not the Eclipse Compliments Blog.

In any case, as soon as Gunner heard that someone might go to the press, he jumped on the band wagon of support posing: A word of caution: Be careful how you respond to questions here or by email. I'm fairly confident Eclipse is capable of trying to bait you into a libel claim. If there's ever anything I can do to assist you, you can email me at eclipse@thefiringline.com

Gunner has no idea who this guy is, or what the situation was. Gunner has never been to the factory floor to see for himself. He believes what suits his agenda. Now he's ready for the fight.

Gunner will take on allies anywhere he can find them if they support his goals. He even posts a welcome back greeting to Frank Castle, the most despicable human being I've seen of this or any other blog. Gunner posts...
Welcome back, Frank.


Gunner further posts: Ken/Redtail: The accusation, "lie", spills off your tongues as easily as "hate". You use it whenever you see information that you can't defend again or spin. It's old, ugly and boring the living hell out of us.

Gunner himself has never been shy of calling anyone a fibber or a cheat. He complains about "double-standards" of the Faithful. I guess he has a two-way mirror in his bathroom - mostly see through.

Bottom line - Gunner is about one thing. His goal as he posts it: Three more potential Depositors just left for the Cessna website

All he wants is his pound of flesh to feed his ego.

Just my opinion.

Black Tulip said...

Back to the subject of Eclipse briefly...

Anybody else attending NBAA next week? If so please keep your secret decoder ring prominently displayed.

Black Tulip

TBM327 said...

Agreed, back on topic. But some of the points are valid.

ExEclipser said...

First a comment regarding Stan's post:

Stan, of all your posts, this is one that I feel you have been most fair about. It's pretty straight forward and it really shows where Eclipse just continues to miss the target.

It isn't for a lack of talent - there's plenty of that. It's the lack of experienced management. Ken Harness is a Veep when he worked his way out of the propulsions group. Many of the leaders (certainly not all, or even most) came to their position either through attrition-based promotions and lucky assignments. Most of the sales staff is straight out of college (even their current director). They even had a program manager straight out of college because his daddy was the CFO.

Now then, please allow me to be a bit of a critic with regards to your post. Whereas your information is generally correct, please keep in mind that there were +/- for all performance specs.

Now, Eclipse thought they could be the first start up company in the world to achieve laminar flow with rubber deice boots installed by an inexperienced production line. I think that if they did reach laminar flow (regardless of how) they would have met the numbers (not exceeded them).

It was the huge shortfalls created by drag that managment wouldn't let aero fix and the inability to reach laminar flow that forced the company to go into the aero-mod portion of the program.

As we are all aware, the pre-aero mod aircraft fell significantly short of even the low end of their performance range.

The aero mods, the extended tip tanks, the delays and the frustration (before Avio) were designed to get the aircraft to within the bottom end of the performance guarantee ranges.

I don't have the legacy guarantees with the plusses and minuses handy, but I'm pretty certain that in the very least, the airplane is meeting their performance guarantees.

With regards to options, most didn't even get engineering started on them (except to incorporate provisions in the first plane forward so they could install them later) until the end of 2006.

For a recalibration, here is my position: I'm an exemployee. I'm not disgruntled. I'm a pilot. I'm not an owner (nor could perhaps ever afford to be). I'm an investor.

ExEclipser said...

I'll be at NBAA. I'll be sure to prominently wear my black tulip boutonnière. :)

mouse said...

NinerZule,

In My Humble Opinion...

Watch for DayJet to announce they are converting many of their "options" to the ConJet, because their current model now shows it the ideal platform...

All speculation on my part, and not from any intel.

Would not be surprised in Ken jumps on tothe ConJet too, then he'll have another year or two in which NOT to buy a plane. If he waits long enough Eclipse will cpme out with a 3rd model he won't buy either and he can fool himself forever..

ExEclipser said...

Oh yeah - can't forget my buddy 9Z:
DayJet DID start revenue service:
Joe Sharkey, NYT

Their website is probably not EVER going to show a reservations page unless you're a member. But if you ARE a member, you're not going to have access until they open it up to the masses. Have you forgotten that they are only doing a soft opening? Their 36 seats can't handle 1000 reservations at the moment...

mouse said...

Gunner,

You have quite a following... It's amazing how jealous this many people can be of your knowledge and success.

I'm sure if they were attacked without warrant like you are/have been they would have crawled off and died somewhere.

Their motive of course is to get Stan to shut down the site because it strays so far afield at times.. Little do dthey know how fair many are around here, and how petty and unfair they are.

Bet thet'd crap their pants if the curtain were raised and they were exposed...

Shane Price said...

Westward,

Look at the blog title.

It is Eclipse Aviation Critic.

That last word MIGHT be a clue as to the sort of people who will contribute.

On the other hand, for some people, it might not.

What do you think?

Oh, and the last time I looked, you lot had not repealed the 1st Amendment....

Now, you MIGHT think that free speech should be offered only to 'selected' people.

Then, I would have to disagree.

Shane

WhyTech said...

exe said:

"Whereas your information is generally correct, please keep in mind that there were +/- for all performance specs."

Sure, this is true for all acft designs. What the critics are criticizing is the overwhelmingly consistent pattern of misses on almost everything important over a time period spanning almost a decade. When does E-clips begin getting something right?

WT

mouse said...

Execlipser,

Al MAnn dictated the sales staff all come from "his" school... They are also clones of each other, blonde hair, blues eyes... Pretty scary actually...

mouse said...

Laminar flow was originally designed to be maintained in known icing flight because the boot was going to be installed in a recessed leading edge, where the boot brought it all up flush... Poor engineering and unreasonable expectations cancelled that thought process back in '01...

Redtail said...

Shane Price said... Westward, Look at the blog title. It is Eclipse Aviation Critic. That last word MIGHT be a clue as to the sort of people who will contribute.

Exactly. This blog should be taken with a grain of salt. Let's point it out to those not necessarily aware of this blogs intent. IT TO BE CRITICAL. Not everything here is true. Not everything is reported in the COMPLETE story, for impartial observers.

Redtail said...

Shane continues... Oh, and the last time I looked, you lot had not repealed the 1st Amendment.... Now, you MIGHT think that free speech should be offered only to 'selected' people. Then, I would have to disagree.

That's right. We all have a right to say what we wish. Myself included.

Redtail said...

mouse said... Execlipser, Al MAnn dictated the sales staff all come from "his" school... They are also clones of each other, blonde hair, blues eyes... Pretty scary actually...

Mouse, you're really losing it.

bill e. goat said...

"Eclipse has 2700 orders. At the rate Cessna is delivering CJs, Eclipse would have a 20-year backlog waiting for them".

Observation:
2700 / 20 / 12 = 11 airplanes per month.

I think Eclipse has a 20 year backlog too!

(Sort of adds new meaning to Avio- NEXT GENERATION... :)

ExEclipser said...

For one of the few times I agree with Mouse, it's this. Except, I don't think it was Al Mann, I think it was Vern himself. The 'pretty boys' from UND and Purdue with NO real world experience and an arrogance that could be smelled from 1/2 planet away...Redtail, though I generally agree with you, are you one of 'em?

The AVIVA guys came from this bunch. They are not lawyers, but they were in SALES at Eclipse and they are helping with delivery documents? One of those two guys was 1/2 of the only crew to ever wreck an EA500.

Ok - only one kid I know has blond hair and blue eyes. But the rest of the crew is definitely the same ilk.

Back to Mouse: "Poor engineering and unreasonable expectations cancelled that thought process back in '01..."

Engineering direction from the good Dr. Masefield. Unfortunately, though the thought process may have been cancelled, the guarantees never were.

ExEclipser said...

Hummer: I like ya, man, but they generally do file /w, but they don't need to if their flight profile is under FL280 which is where they do most of their flying.

Their planes and pilots are all quite capable.

ExEclipser said...

Public Service Announcement:

First amendment says "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances."

Since Stan isn't Congress and isn't making any laws, he can limit whatever speech he wants to here. (one of the silliest arguments I've ever heard on blogs when people get censored)

FlightCenter said...

Exe,

I didn't see where in the NYT article you mentioned that it said that DayJet had actually begun service.

The quote in the article from Ed was made in the future tense.

"“We’re going to be filling in gaps where air service is inadequate,” said Ed Iacobucci, the chief executive of DayJet in Boca Raton, Fla., a company that is buying hundreds of Eclipse 500 very-light jets to start an air-taxi business, selling seats on demand. The company plans to begin flying among Florida cities that many business travelers now reach by driving or by spending hours in commercial airports."



Also Linear Air had a press release a while ago saying that they would start Eclipse service in mid-September.

Linear Air's Eclipse 500 Has Arrived

They are flying serial #16, which was one of the five aircraft that have been sold by their original owners.

According to flightaware, the aircraft arrived in Bedford on Sept 7th. No flights have been tracked by flightaware since then. Maybe they've all been VFR?

FlightCenter said...

It looks like Linear Air is going to charge the same price for a Caravan flight as they charge for an Eclipse flight. They show basically the same price ($3,580 or $3,590) for a 300 mile day trip in either aircraft.

Your choice - you can take a bunch of friends and all their luggage at 180mph or you can go very light on the Eclipse at 300 mph.

ExEclipser said...

FC - Thanks for keeping me honest. It was a James Fallows article on TheAtlantic.com.
quote: "The DayJet company of Florida...carried its first paying customer of its first on-demand, priced-per-seat* trip."

With regards to LinearAir, you can see in the history of N15ND that it first arrived in BED on 8/01/07. Since then there have been 8 flights. Keep in mind that they don't necessarily file flight plans using their N Number. Like DayJet and NAJC, they can use a call sign.

I've said it over and over again, you can't use flightaware.com to really claim much of anything, other than indeed at least an N Number or call sign has flown.

rcflyer said...

execlipser,

Whatever their background, the AVIVA guys are doing an excellent job, according to reports from those who have used them.

Besides a physical inspection at delivery, they also test fly the jet to make sure it measures up to book performance.

R.C.

ExEclipser said...

Perhaps, so. As Vern's golden children, they were given many advantages over others and unfettered access to Eclipse.

I wish them success and I hope they do well. They are certainly better informed (with other class mates still in the EAC Sales department).

Still, I'd rather have a lawyer look over my papers than a couple of kids.

Shane Price said...

Execlipser,

I was not offering an argument, I was making an observation.

Well, two actually.

This blog site continues to exists only because people contribute. No contributions, no blog.

While Stan invites anyone to register and post, he does reserve the right to moderate if he feels the need, but that's been very rare.

My point is simple. Westward was having problems with 20yrmechanics' recent posts, and (of course) Gunner in general.

The response I made was to offer advice about the nature of this blog, and a general one that people are entitled to their views.

Now, if you're not careful I'll get into the Second Amendment....

Ooops, shouldn't have done that!

Not with Gunner lurking around with .45 APC...

Gadfly,

The college I went to was very much focused on Rhetoric, and in fact the final year still carries that name.

Key to the idea of Rhetoric is the ability to declaim to a group, on any given subject, in an attempt to lead them in a desired direction.

Think Mark Antony in Julius Ceasar, when granted the chance to address the mob after Brutus has attempted to justify his actions.

"I come to bury Ceasar, not to praise him."

Antony goes on to do exactly the opposite, turning the mob around from approval of their actions, to pursuit of the killers.

It also strikes me that the next line in his speech might apply to The Great Raburn:-

"The evil that men do lives after them"

And don't forget, it's only a play, written 400 odd years ago

Back to earth after that, I think...

Shane

ExEclipser said...

LOL!

Gunner said...

Well, I see the Eclipse Spin Machine was well rested for the new week. Even 20YRmechanic was targeted. Quite a tempest in a teapot, last evening.

L. Ron Hubbard's Church of Scientology's been mentioned several times here. I think it's noteworthy (and relevant) that we point up a couple of the more salient quotes that describe the principles on which Ron built the cult:

Never discuss Scientology with the critic. Just discuss his or her crimes, known and unknown.

If attacked on some vulnerable point by anyone or anything or any organization, always find or manufacture enough threat against them to cause them to sue for peace. Peace is bought with an exchange of advantage, so make the advantage and then settle. Don't ever defend. Always attack. Don't ever do nothing. Unexpected attacks in the rear of the enemy's front ranks work best

If there will be a long-term threat, you are to immediately evaluate and originate a black PR campaign to destroy the person's repute and to discredit them so thoroughly that they will be ostracized.

I'm drinking lots of rum and popping pinks and greys.

THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN CONTROL PEOPLE IS TO LIE TO THEM. You can write that down in your book in great big letters. The only way you can control anybody is to lie to them.

When Mrs. Pattycake comes to us to be taught, turn that wandering doubt in her eye into a fixed, dedicated glare. The proper instruction attitude is, 'We'd rather have you dead than incapable.'"

A long term propaganda technique used by socialists (Communists and Nazis alike} is of interest to PR practitioners. I know of no place it is mentioned in PR literature. But the data had verbal circulation in intelligence circles and is in constant current use. The trick is -- WORDS ARE REDEFINED TO MEAN SOMETHING ELSE TO THE ADVANTAGE OF THE PROPAGANDIST. Many instances of planned and campaigned in order to obtain a public opinion advantage for the group doing the propaganda. Given enough repetition of the redefinition public opinion can be altered by altering the meaning of a word.

Did you ever read poor old George Orwell's uh.. 1984? Yes, yes, that's wonderful. That would be, could be, the palest imagined shadow of what a world would be like under the rule of the secret use of Scientology with no remedy in existence.
__________________

When L. Ron Hubbard died in 1986, he had changed little in the 40 years since he became famous. He was still a pathological liar and clinically insane. ;-)
Gunner

sparky said...

In the last year we've had the fleet (if you can call 20 aircraft a fleet) grounded due to improper wing bushing installation, an AD that seriously limited the aircrafts operational envelope due to freezing pitot/static lines, windscreens and sidescreens cracking at rediculously low cycles, and tires that needed changing at about 100 cycles.

These are facts and can not be disputed by any of the faithful. Instead they wave the whitesheet around and state "see right here, it's designed for high cycle ops."

Must suck to have to defend this aviation joke.

BTW, with everybody airing out their credentials, I don't fly anything and probably never will. That being said, I've worked on just about everything Boeing's made since the '27 excluding only the 777.

Not routine maintenance, but heavy modifications. been involved with gulfstream, bombardier, lear, and cessna. Did some time with the smaller GA airframes and even did an STC project on ken's favorite airframe...nice bird.

Bonanza Pilot said...

Al Mann clones....but isn't Al Jewish? The blond hair blue eye thing might not apply!

Not sure it is a great idea to taunt a world known expert in firearms, unless you can run faster then say 1300 feet per second!

As for the real discussion...the plane..I can only speak for myself on this one, but I really wish they would have done a more conventional plane and kept the cost closer to the original estimate. Even if the performance had sunk to say 300 knots or even 280 knots...there would be many of us interested in a sub 1 million dollar jet with excellent fuel burn. I wish they would have ditched Avio..gone with Garmin and certified and shipped completed products a long time ago. I think the attraction of the "new" single is the price..the only thing that was really revolutionary about the Eclipse was the price...and the reason the order book is suspect is that price increase. I really do believe that if they could have delivered this thing below 1 million they would have been able to meet their sales numbers.

Gunner said...

BP-
The original dream was a good one. For the same reasons as Ken, I liked it enough to put down a $130K deposit. I've learned a LOT from this Blog in the past year. The most important thing I've learned is that there's a reason why none of the respected manufacturers are offering a twin-jet for under a million (or even under $2 million):

The technology revolution that's fueling the VLJ craze simply has not materialized. Sure, we've seen some evolutionary changes in materials, powerplant size and efficiency; but the Million Dollar twin jet still awaits the technology to make it happen (or a company willing to slap together a disposable).

Gunner

sparky said...

Gunner and BP,

well said. I think the hype is starting to die down to a low rubmle with the other manufacturers feeling the pressure of the oiginal claims and pricepoints.

It's easy to make a really small jet, It's hard to make a really small jet compete on every level the way eclipse it trying; speed, weight, range, utilization...they're all tied together and their are trade-offs that must be made. I think this is the one thing that the e-boys missed and it's been an extrememly expesive lesson.

Look for the VLJ craze to start to cool off in the next 8-12 months as people and companies come to realize this.

I think once everything gets sorted out they're going to be great little aircraft for the owner/operator, but not much more. That could be a healthy little market if not for the 6+ companies competing for it. The ones to survive are going to be the ones that planned for this type of production.

mouse said...

Not a clone of Al.... More like his dog... LOL!

No, back in '02 all the "kids" from UND were Blonde haired, blue-eyed, and looked a lot better than they sounded. They knew very little about what they were selling, or the selling process. Just like all the shows, the sales and Hostesstutes were all hired hands designed to make the program look better than the mess that it was. Great marketing, very expensive, (no doubt, Skip puts on a great show!) and it helped hide the fact that the plane and company were in serious troubles..

Gunner said...

Sparky said:
"It's easy to make a really small jet"

Early on in this Blog Stan said something that has stuck with me. Something to the effect that it's harder to make a small jet than a large one.

His point was that people, baggage and essential systems do not scale down. You still have to accommodate them. As a result, overall weight does not scale proportionately as you downsize a jet and, given the current state of propulsion systems, you end up seriously sacrificing range or load.

This is one of the dirty little secrets that The Faithful lash out against, each time it's printed. They goose-step in with reams of white papers, proposed AFM's and promised aero-mods and try to argue against the Laws of Physics. But the EA-50X remains what it is...a tiny conventional jet, manufactured by a dysfunctional company that continues to flirt with bankruptcy, while significantly missing every single production promise since the first PR Stunt Flight.

It has a market, I think; not a large one, however. And one need only read this Blog to understand the mentality of that market. That, too, is what it is.
Gunner

jetaburner said...

bonanza pilot-

You said:
"..the only thing that was really revolutionary about the Eclipse was the price...and the reason the order book is suspect is that price increase. I really do believe that if they could have delivered this thing below 1 million they would have been able to meet their sales numbers."

I agree and that is my point. E-clips may survive but they really haven't produced anything new. If they survive, I believe the e-clips will cost more than $2m and they will not see the huge demand precisely because it costs more than $2M. IMHO there are many times more owner pilots that can afford an airplane below $1m. I haven't done any market research other than looking at how many sub $1m planes are at the airport vs. $2m+ planes that are owner flown.

Once the price went up, it became unnaffordable to a large group of owner pilots and depositors. Now that demand has gone down, the price will continue to climb. That's the reason SN #s 31, 91, and 92 were recently available.

jetaburner said...

Gunner-

Well said. I'd like to add that the fundamental challenge with jets is that they burn more fuel and therefore carry a higher percentage of fuel weight in their useful load. This becomes very challenging as you shrink the plane because the laws of physics dictates that the useful load must decrease as well. This lack of efficiency in jets is precisely the reason the charter, corporate, and owner flown markets favor turboprops for short hops. E-clips thought they could engineer around this law of physiscs but really haven't. They just gave up cabin size, range, performance and payload for 2 jet engines. That is why this jet, especially at the $2m price level, will only serve a small niche market. That assumes e-clips survives to become a reputable company that can provide the necessary support their customers will demand.

Copernicus said...

I gave an Eclipse deposit on day 1 and have experienced all the tribulations recounted on this site. The history may be shameful for the company and its management and unfair and supremely disappointing to depositors. But it is past.

When, as a customer, one has been treated in the Eclipse manner, the proper reaction in our competitive economy is to walk out, cancel the order and proceed to the next alternative. I would do that in a minute, but WHAT IS THE ALTERNATIVE? My price is $1.35 million for a twin engine jet that goes well over 300 knots, about 1000 miles and has (let's assume they get it figured out, I think they will) a great electronics system and carries almost 700 pounds with the tanks full.

For a like amount, I could get a 5 year old Meridian with 700 hours on the engine. It goes slower, can't carry as much weight and has less sophisticated "generation 1" glass instruments. For 50% more than my Eclipse price I could get a new Meridian with Avidyne. For double my price and 50% more operating costs, I could get a Mustang.

Bottom line: for all the problems and broken promises and for all the uncertainties, it is still worth it for me to "hang in there."

ExEclipser said...

Copernicus: If you're a depositor from Day One, you should be getting your plane soon.

As a former employee, I hope you love it. We did try to build you the nicest ride for the price.

Bassmaster said...

Who shot 20yr?