Tuesday, November 27, 2007

From Vern:

Last week, I shared some of my reflections of our recent momentum. By our own accounts, this year we have come up short in several of our projections for aircraft deliveries and program schedules. But, as measured against any other general aviation manufacturer, our accomplishments this year are unparalleled.

Eclipse has always benefited from the strong partnership with our customers. Whenever feasible, we try to honor your commitment and patience by extending the value of the Eclipse 500. As such, we are offering you a one-of-a-kind opportunity to save significant money on your aircraft while also supporting Eclipse. However, before I get into the details of this offer, let me first update you on the status of current programs and aircraft production.

Avio NG Certification Program

The Avio NG certification program has completed several milestones in the last few days. As of today, we are 82% complete with all certification testing. This exceptional news means that certification is now expected within 30 days. Production incorporation of Avio NG is occurring as planned, with the first Avio NG equipped customer aircraft assemblies now rolling down the line. A detailed upgrade plan for in-service customers will be communicated by the end of the year.

Flight Into Known Icing Certification

To date, we have completed all high-risk development flight testing using artificial shapes on the airfoils to simulate flight into known icing conditions and we will begin natural ice testing next week. While this required flight testing is not for credit, it reduces the unknowns in the FAA certification flight test program. The formal certification flight testing will be conducted in two phases, with ice shape testing occurring in January and natural ice testing occurring in February. The new de-icing boot required for flight into known icing conditions has been qualified and is now being installed on all production aircraft.

Foreign Certification Programs

Our first foreign certification priority is EASA (most European countries). This certification program is well underway but is dependant on Avio NG functionality. EASA certification activities will accelerate in early 2008 with expected completion in the early second quarter of 2008. Following achievement of EASA certification, Eclipse will continue other foreign country certification activities based on customer deliveries.

Training Programs

We acknowledge that, for many reasons, we have not met demand for pilot training. In an effort to correct this situation, we have made significant investments in human and physical resources. We currently have two fixed based Flight Training Devices (FTD) in operation at our new Customer Training Center at Double Eagle II Airport in Albuquerque, NM. The second FTD was delivered earlier this month and became operational last week. These FTDs are being used to improve skills and conduct portions of the type rating training. By the end of January, we will have two full motion simulators in operation in addition to one of the FTDs. That FTD will be converted to a third full motion simulator in March. With these investments online, we will be able to close the gap between customer aircraft delivery and customer pilot training.

Eclipse Service Centers

Two additional Eclipse Service Centers, one in Albany, NY and another in Van Nuys, CA, will open in early 2008. Combined with our Eclipse Service Centers in Gainesville, FL and Albuquerque, NM, this network is prepared to support in-service customers around the country. Additionally, a detailed capacity planning exercise is underway to ensure all customer aircraft upgrades are completed as quickly as possible via our service center network.

Aircraft Delivery

We continue to increase our production rate through improved cycle times across the line and increased efficiency in our manufacturing processes. As of today, aircraft 85 received its certificate of airworthiness. We are now building Eclipse 500s at a faster rate while becoming more predictable and reliable. This year alone, we expect to deliver more than 100 aircraft. You can see a video of the Eclipse 500 assembly process on YouTube (click here to view). This video was produced early this November and tracks the process from friction stir welding to completion.

I am proud to tell you that aircraft 58 was our first aircraft to complete production flight testing with zero flight squawks. Subsequent aircraft are also showing few or no squawks. Our customers who have taken delivery are giving us a tremendous amount of positive feedback about the flying qualities and aircraft reliability. Last week the total customer fleet passed the 5,100 flight hour mark. Nothing makes me happier than hearing our customers talk about how much they love flying their Eclipse 500.

Limited Offer

Since the inception of the company, Eclipse has made it a priority to give something back when we were forced to make a change or didn't perform as we planned. Here are a few examples.

In 2003, after Williams International failed, we were forced to raise the aircraft price, but raised yours much less than the market price. We also made your positions fully transferable, which allowed you to realize the increased value of your position based on customer demand and price increases.

In 2005, when we increased the price of the Eclipse 500, we offered certain position holders whose deposits were in escrow, the opportunity to release their money from escrow, and save more than $30,000.

In early 2007, when our delivery schedule slipped, we offered affected customers an interest payment for every month we were delayed delivering their aircraft.

We are proud to have already built more jet aircraft at a faster rate than any other general aviation manufacturer in history. While this is quite a feat, our production is still not where we projected it to be. Our business model is based on high rate production and when we fall behind, there are more consequences than simply a delay when you will receive your long-anticipated airplane. One consequence is that our need for capital has increased. Therefore, we are making a special offer to our customers to help meet our need for short term funds while our production capability matures and we put in place additional long-term financing. As a result of the shortfall versus our production targets referred to earlier in this note, the company is raising additional financing. The financing we are seeking is relatively small as a percentage of the total capital we have raised to date. We have been successful in the past in our ability to raise capital and believe we will be able to close this financing within 120 days. In the meantime, we are looking to raise funds now so that we can complete our financing in an orderly fashion.

For a limited time, we are offering, an opportunity to fix the Standard Aircraft Price of your Eclipse 500 aircraft at $1,250,000 USD without any future price adjustments. The price will be fixed in exchange for a payment of $625,000, which will save you hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The details are as follows:

You may lock in your Standard Aircraft Price for your Eclipse 500 at $1.25M USD.

This means:

Your Standard Aircraft Price will not be subject to further price escalation due to inflation.

Your purchase price will be fixed, regardless of what changes Eclipse may make to the price of the Eclipse 500 in the future. The Standard Aircraft Price does not include any optional equipment you may select six months prior to delivery.

To fix your Standard Aircraft Price, you must sign and deliver to Eclipse a standard Eclipse 500 Aircraft Purchase Agreement, an Escrow Agreement, and remit to Eclipse Aviation $625,000 USD (50% of your new fixed Standard Aircraft Price), by December 14, 2007 (or such earlier date as Eclipse may terminate this offer). The $625,000 USD payment is in addition to any deposits you have already paid.

The $625,000 USD payment will be held in an escrow account until Eclipse has received at least $30M USD from customers accepting this offer. We believe that this amount, combined with other financing activities being pursued will be sufficient to provide Eclipse with the time to complete our capital raising activities.

Upon reaching $30M USD, funds can be drawn from escrow and made available as needed for use by Eclipse in its operations.Eclipse Aviation will honor this special offer to customers on a first-come, first-served basis only.

This offer is valid only for customers that have not yet assigned and delivered an Eclipse 500 Aircraft Purchase Agreement or remitted the progress payment due six months before delivery.Eclipse Aviation reserves the right to discontinue this offer at any time.

This is a chance for you to save a substantial amount on the purchase of your Eclipse 500 aircraft. By fixing the price at $1,250,000 USD, you are protected from changes in price due to increases in CPI-W or from other factors.

To demonstrate this incredible savings, consider the following.

If you purchased an Eclipse 500 for $1,295,000 USD with a delivery date in 2008, you would save approximately $360,000 USD - that's more than half of the $625,000 USD deposit.

If you purchased an Eclipse 500 for $1,595,000 USD with a delivery date in 2010 you would save over a half-million dollars!

The chart below indicates your potential savings based on when your aircraft is slated for delivery versus its base price. These are approximate amounts and represent estimates of CPI-W through your anticipated delivery date. The following also assumes savings on the Standard Aircraft Price only and does not include the price of Aircraft Optional Equipment.

Potential Savings ($000's) by Delivery Year

Base Aircraft Price ($M) 2008 2009 2010
$1.045 $57 $69 -
$1.070 $79 - -
$1.270 $326 $364 -
$1.295 $359 $409 -
$1.520 $350 $413 $426
$1.595 - - $509

Please take the time to review and absorb this offer. We have organized a special team that is prepared to provide the specific details of this offer, including all required documentation. This team's unique phone number is 866-436-9954, which will be staffed Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Mountain Time. Phone calls placed into Eclipse Customer Care regarding this offer will be re-directed to this specialized team. Again, this offer is available for a limited time only.

Eclipse has accomplished many remarkable feats and is on the cusp of completing many more milestones. We are delivering an outstanding aircraft at an unbeatable value. We remain driven to providing you with the best customer experience in the industry, and we hope this opportunity further enhances our commitment to you.

Sincerely,

Vern Raburn

President and CEO

Jetfan thanks for bringing this forward. I'm sitting in the garden area of the Honolulu terminal (yes Ken, flying commercial, AA Flt 8 seats 3H & 3J) and just read your comment. Kept reading and reading, looking for the punch line, all the time convinced you had taken a creative writing course from black tulip. About fell off the park bench, this was not meant as satire, it's real!

193 comments:

Stan Blankenship said...

From my mail:

Date: Nov 27, 2007 1:13 PM

Hi Stan. ..

From the Eciplse 500 site:

Eclipse will immediately start its' own brokerage of
aircraft for a $5,000 transfer fee.
Bye bye Mike Press

baron95 said...

Wow. That message from Vern is something. I had read the news on ANN (incidentaly Cessna won the auction for Columbia, closing on Dec 4th), but I hadn't realized the Eclipse CEO messae behind it.

It is clearly a desperate tone. After months of NO specific info on Avio NG and FIKI, suddenly he feels "ready to report" they will be done in December, and February respectively.

Why is it Eclipse only ready to report these "imminent great milestones" when they need to ask position holders to take even more risk?

It is certainly not coincidental.

It is also obviously not credible that Eclipse, knowing for a long time that they need money has been sitting there not exploring every single funding option. Yet, he claims that funding will be no problem and that he would be able to close it in 120 days.

How can Eclipse be so pressed against the wall that they feel compelled to give up up to $500M/aircraft in future revenues, yet be so convinced they can close finnancing withing 120 days.

This I am saying from personal experience both making and seeking private financing for start up companies....

If they could not close on finnancing by now, they have NO chance of closing it after foregoing $500M/frame in future revenues.

Investors took a look at the current situation/projections and took a pass, they will take an even faster pass once the future revenue stream is further compromised.

This can not be good. It will scare vendors s%$#less, it will scare creditors, it will scare potential investors, and it should make every position holder RUN and GET AS MUCH MONEY BACK AS YOU CAN.

FlightCenter said...

"Our business model is based on high rate production and when we fall behind, there are more consequences than simply a delay" - Vern Raburn

That about sums it up.

Metal Guy said...

Sounds like a last ditch effort to be sure.

I would have to say that if anyone took them up on this offer, they have balls of steel!

Gunner said...

Ken said:
"Wrong again, oh wise one.

I've just learned that several people ALREADY have signed onto the deal.

It is actually a good arrangement for many of the customers. I am, myself, contemplating it."


You talk the talk, Ken. Time to walk the walk.

I've got $10,000 left over from a spending spree of my gains on the IS&S short that bets you won't go past that talk. Ten Thousand dollars (or any part of that you've a hankerin' for) that says Eclipse won't raise the $30MM from customers by December 14th. You game? How about if I give you 2:1 odds to finally prove yourself right on SOMETHING around here.

Need a Pot Sweetener? Provide documentation that YOU take Vern up on this deal, to the satisfaction of a neutral party like EO387, I'll give you 4:1 odds to take my money. What's not to like?

You've worked long and hard to get OTHERS to put up money with Eclipse, Ken. How 'bout we show 'em all EXACTLY what you're made of.

But this is a limited time offer. Act now. Operators are standing by.
Gunner

flightguy said...

Kenny, Kenny, KENNY, KKEENNYY.

Oh the peer pressure!

Metal Guy said...

Go for it Ken – here is your chance to prove you actually believe everything you have been driveling for the last couple of years.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Less than two weeks ago, the Albuquerque Journal reported the following:
”"Raburn told the Journal the problem was caused by Hampson's "lack of performance"— not Eclipse's inability to pay”

Now Vern says:
”One consequence is that our need for capital has increased. Therefore, we are making a special offer to our customers to help meet our need for short term funds while our production capability matures and we put in place additional long-term financing.”

The best part is when Vern states, truthfully:

”The financing we are seeking is relatively small as a percentage of the total capital we have raised to date”

You know, a hundred million here, a hundred million there, pretty soon you are talking real money.

Eclipse is basically saying it needs $50M right now, PLUS additional funding, and that together, that figure represents a small percentage of the total capital raised to date.

If you use the critic suggested range of $1.2-1.5B already raised and spent, the only question remaining is what constitutes a ‘small percentage’?

5% ($75M)
10% ($150M)
15% ($225M)
20% ($300M)

Since they need $50M in the next two weeks, I can probably suggest that less than 10% is unlikely – I have previously stated I believe another $250-$300M is needed, and that would only be 20% - my bet is 20% is what Vern meant when he said a relatively small percentage.

Burning nearly $10M a month for payroll and with a payment due to Hampson that has to be measured in millions (original contract was for $325M), I find it hard to believe that 120 days goes without using ALL of the $50M they are asking for.

This in addition to the $120M or so raised last year with the call for ‘progress payments’ for the 300 planes that were supposed to deliver within the next six months ( a year ago now – total deliveries are about 70, or about 75% off) – in addition to the $225M closed on ONLY 4 MONTHS AGO in August – in addition to the $28M or so final payments on the planes delivered to date.

Yes, appearances are that Eclipse has burned over $370M in the past 12 months – and delivered about 70, partially completed, IOU laden planes with significant functions INOP or missing.

As I have said again and again, it just doesn’t add up – even if I am off by half, those numbers still don’t add up. Where will the profitability come from? How will Eclipse provide an ROI on $1.5B, or more?

sollicitus effectus said...

Looks like quite the fair wager. Should bring some fun to this blog!

It's reported that hamp quality (or lack thereof) causes 70% of AC to either return parts or repair them on the line. 70%, 70%, YES...70%!!! This is allegedly either elevator or rudder surface and/or trim parts. What has happened to the reported EAC-hamp-EAC-??? "quality" person mentioned before.

If any insiders can ID him/her put wagers on how long it will take him/her to visit North Carolina!

flyforfun said...

Ken, I have to wonder how you have position #151 and have not put up your 60% payment. Are you not locked in at $995K. What gives. I had lunch yesterday with the guy who is a couple behind you and he has had his money up for months and months. Please explain.

Shane Price said...

Gunner,

You are not being polite.

Poor Ken has to take some time to recover from the shock of finding out that The Great Raburn is looking for lots and lots of money.

Again.

That Avio NG is delayed.

Again.

That deliveries have fallen short of plan.

Again.

Now you want Ken to take a bet, like the one he would have lost last time.

Again.

I detect a pattern. I think that you, ColdWet, Whytech, Flightcentre etc are right.

And Ken is wrong.

Again.

Like I wrote in the last thread, I think that Ken should talk to Mike Press. Except that Vern has now thrown Mike under the bus by offering to do brokerage himself.

How weird is that? A company in competition with it's own salespeople, and expecting the current customers to pay the commission. Twice.

There is a book in this blog already.

Lawyers would call it "The Book of Evidence"...

Shane

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Since Mirage doesn't like long posts, here is the executive summary for the faithful:

Eclipse doesn't need more money and I am still amused.

For those whose BS allergy itches while reading the full Vernogram, here are the cliff notes:

AvioNfG is 82% finished and will be certified on a Tuesday in February.

The FIKI flight testing is finished. Starting next tuesday, we will start flight testing. On a Tuesday in February we will start flight testing.

EASA Certification is nearly finished, and once we start talking to EASA it will be finished by June.

Flight training. We have two FTD sims. By the last Tuesday in January we will have three Full flight sims. Our flight training program screech to a halt while these FTD's are modified.

We'll build two more service centers on Tuesday.

A/C 85 got it's CofA. The prediction rate is slowing, as the production rate is making production predictions unreliably verifiable. Although the last prediction was 105 A/C, it is now "more than 100", which we are amused to note means less than 100.

Flight snags. We have fired the last idealist still willing to write up flight snags.

The customer fleet has past 5100 flight hours. This includes 3000 hours of flight test, and 2000 hours performed under lease back to Eclipse and twenty return flights to N.M. for repairs/upgrades.

For a limited time, you can have fries with your turkey.

"Eclipse has accomplished many remarkable feats, and is on the cusp of completing many more milestones" (note - this quote was too good to mess with).

Feats include burning the most cash for the least results since the Spruce Goose.

Our next milestone is proving you we have the all time greatest dB of rich, dumb people, when we fleece them one more time.

flyger said...

Vern needs $30M in the next 2 weeks, and for that, he will give up about $15M in future revenue.

Now that's desperate.

FlightCenter said...

Let's consider what is happening in the financial markets.

Some folks might describe the market's reaction to the subprime fiasco as a flight to quality.

It's going to be very tough for anyone needing money in the next 120 days to safely fly through this downdraft.

Turboprop_pilot said...

Everyone seems to be really creative today!

“Feats include burning the most cash for the least results since the Spruce Goose.”

“.. we have the all time greatest dB of rich, dumb people..”

“Vern needs $30M in the next 2 weeks, and for that, he will give up about $15M in future revenue.”

“Yes, appearances are that Eclipse has burned over $370M in the past 12 months – and delivered about 70, partially completed, IOU laden planes with significant functions INOP or missing.”

“The "photo" of SN 82 on the Auction site appears to be the Dubai plane N500UK with a different number photoshopped to the tail.”

I’d say that the whole company has been “photoshopped”

God, I’m going to miss this blog but the ship of Eclipse looks to be going down fast!

TP

Black Tulip said...

“As of today, we are 82% complete with all certification testing.”

Avio NG reminds me of the Marble Hill nuclear power plant in Indiana. Construction lagged and doubts began to grow. Utility officials claimed that $1.4 billion had been spent and the plant was 97% complete.

Consultants were called in for an independent evaluation. They concluded it would take another $1.4 billion to finish the ‘last 3%’. The plant was never completed.

Redtail said...

John said... Auction airplane, photo appears photoshopped. The "photo" of SN 82 on the Auction site appears to be the Dubai plane N500UK with a different number photoshopped to the tail.

My god, what is the world coming to when you can't trust a photo? John, you are no Super Sleuth. That is #82. If you look at N500UK you'll notice different trim colors. The telltale tiling you describe is also around the emergency exit. Perhaps that was added also?

Redtail said...

sollicitus effectus said... It's reported that hamp quality (or lack thereof) causes 70% of AC to either return parts or repair them on the line. 70%, 70%, YES...70%!!! This is allegedly either elevator or rudder surface and/or trim parts. What has happened to the reported EAC-hamp-EAC-??? "quality" person mentioned before.

Take it easy. No critic here wants to listen to problems with first tier suppliers. It just doesn't happen.

Redtail said...

ColdWetJustifyingHisLife said... Burning nearly $10M a month for payroll and with a payment due to Hampson that has to be measured in millions (original contract was for $325M), I find it hard to believe that 120 days goes without using ALL of the $50M they are asking for.

Fish, can't you read and keep the facts straight. The email said $30M, not the $50M you state. And, who said Hampson still hasn't been paid. Hampson claims that they have received payment.

Black Tulip said...

Stan, should we consider adding another link to the main page of the blog? Since it now appears that Eclipse may 'deliver' at least 101 aircraft, shouldn’t we all contribute to:

101 USES FOR AN ECLIPSE

I’ll get the ball rolling with four easy ones:

1. Gate guard at the municipal airport. Concrete pylon to be purchased separately. Windows and windshield should be painted as panel is incomplete.

2.Cruise missile or disposable unmanned aerial vehicle.

3.A novel and distinctive jet ski.

4.Replacement for the BD-5 that was finally pulled out of back of the hangar and sold for scrap.

5. ...

flightguy said...

5... A wheel chock for my GV.

cj3driver said...

“Vern needs $30M in the next 2 weeks, and for that, he will give up about $15M in future revenue.”

Why not auction/sell 17 more planes at $1.8 million over the next few weeks (ahead of current positions at $995K) instead of taking a $15 million dollar haircut. Vern still has to produce the airplanes he takes the deposits on, so why reduce the price when there is obviously so much demand. …. Or is there?

There is a reason the deposit money is being put into escrow and not directly into cash flow. Why the need for a neutral third party to hold the funds tied to the “volume“ of money raised, and not to the delivery of the product? What benefit is it to the customer to have funds held by escrow until this milestone is reached? What benefit to Eclipse?

Possible answers

1. Terms of previous financing.
2. Deadlines (milestones) for current management from BOD.
3. Terms of settlement from Hampson lawsuit.
4. Terms of negotiation from other threatened Vendor actions.
5. Current management can not be trusted with the funds.
6. The “shut down” of Eclipse with out the verified cash.

Reducing the price on 50 more planes is a double edged sword for Eclipse, … now and in the future, for both Eclipse and the customers. …For Eclipse because they must produce more planes at a potential loss, they also create more competition (low priced resales) they must compete with in the future for new sales (at a much lower cost), ... and for the customers because of reduced resale value (depreciation) way into the future.

Turboprop_pilot said...

cj3:

what about the really pissed off customers who paid $1.8 million (like the Danish eBay winner)? what about the current eBay auction?

with a $1.25 million cat let out of the bag, how will other customers who paid more ever be content?

TP

WhyTech said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
cj3driver said...

...what about the current eBay auction?

Might as well let the $5,000 bidders fee go, and save $500K on a new order (or exitsing position) if you really want one.
Either way, this isnt a very good time to have an Eclipse order.

It must be very fustrating for Ken.

Do I risk another $650K?

Honestly, there was more due-diligence done on the sub-prime trust deeds than there appears to be on an Eclipse deposit. At least the houses were already built. Have any of these Eclipse "lenders" looked at the financials before sending in Millions and millions of deposit dollars?

Crazy.

Way to much risk.

WhyTech said...

The future of E-clips:

It seems to me, based on recent developments and the cash requirements estimates presented here recently that there is more than a slight possibility that E-clips will close its doors and lay off substantially all of its employees within the next 30-90 days.
This is not a forecast - just a hunch based on observing similar patterns of behavior in dozens of failing companies just before they pulled the plug..

WT

Gunner said...

CJ-
See my earlier regarding my take on the escrow feature. I think the company owes SOMEONE $30mill on the 15th and failure to pay will mean real bad things. Knowing that, the taking (and spending) of these dollars would certainly constitute civil, if not criminal, fraud.

Flyger said:
"Vern needs $30M in the next 2 weeks, and for that, he will give up about $15M in future revenue."

Persactly. A 50% return on their investment. For Vern to resort to a Fire Sale, it means that the financial markets have refused an even better offer. Things that make you go, "Hmmm".

RedTail-
Grab a bucket and head down to the stern; the water level's rising real fast there.

Ken-
I got cash and it's burning a hole in my pocket. Are we on for the bet?
Gunner

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Black Tulip said...

It worked for Oral Roberts, why not Vern Raburn:

“In 1987, during a fundraising drive, Roberts announced to a television audience that unless he raised $8 million by that March, God would "call him home" (a euphemism for death). He raised $9.1 million.”

Ken, you should check into the escrow agent. It shouldn’t be Vern’s brother-in-law.

Metal Guy said...

It would also seem to indicate that the “angle” investor that bailed them out at the last failed round has drawn the line and said no, no-way and absolutely-not-again. ( I can’t recall if this is still Al Mann or not).

In any case, the only true “believer” that really counts (the one with the cold-hard cash), has apparently refused to bridge them even a small pittance to get them to their next promised round.

If this reading the cards is right, then even the truest believers on the financial side have finally thrown in the towel – most likely because they have seen something they really really don’t like.

Buyers beware.

airtaximan said...

Dear Sir:

I have been requested by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to contact you for assistance in resolving a matter. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company has recently concluded a large number of contracts for oil exploration in the sub-Sahara region. The contracts have immediately produced moneys equaling US$40,000,000. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company is desirous of oil exploration in other parts of the world, however, because of certain regulations of the Nigerian Government, it is unable to move these funds to another region.

You assistance is requested as a non-Nigerian citizen to assist the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, and also the Central Bank of Nigeria, in moving these funds out of Nigeria. If the funds can be transferred to your name, in your United States account, then you can forward the funds as directed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company. In exchange for your accommodating services, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company would agree to allow you to retain 10%, or US$4 million of this amount.

However, to be a legitimate transferee of these moneys according to Nigerian law, you must presently be a depositor of at least US$100,000 in a Nigerian bank which is regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

If it will be possible for you to assist us, we would be most grateful. We suggest that you meet with us in person in Lagos, and that during your visit I introduce you to the representatives of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, as well as with certain officials of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Please call me at your earliest convenience at 18-467-4975. Time is of the essence in this matter; very quickly the Nigerian Government will realize that the Central Bank is maintaining this amount on deposit, and attempt to levy certain depository taxes on it.

Yours truly,

fred said...

things happen in the world for SOME reasons ..:


First , Easa certification is nearly finished .....

What ?? the EASA says "WE have no ideas how it could be done before END 2008"

about the Danish guy :

he won the auction , just he was passing by in front of a computer screen , and suddenly he tought "why , not waiste a 1.8M US$ ??!!

if that was really wanting the plane , why did he choose to buy on such UNSURE way ?? at a bigger price than the one already on resale ?? what about cert. ?? NO fikki ?? in Danemark ?? and last but not least : with all the things that needs to changed or fixed after a few hours of flight , where the guy could find a service-center ?? there ISN'T any on this side of ocean ...!( sending back the plane to ABQ ?? ) and anyway service-center for planes would have to be certified as well , it cannot be done BEFORE the plane is certified ... and they probably do not have any ideas how painfull it is to get such things done here !!!

other explanation :

Mustang get EASA cert. (true)
vs
EA corp. annouces ETIRC deal (fake?)

First mustang to be delivered to E.U. owner (funny thing he is danish as well!) (true)

vs

EA Corp. organize an auction , which off-course IS a great success
(fake?)

Etirc failled to raise money on the Mega-european-deal (true)

vs

EA Corp. has to run to money market , not to get bankrupt (NOT fake!)

Etirc won't be able to open a "service-center" for E500 , loosing by that a great % of chances to get a EASA cert. for E500 (true ?)

vs

EA Corp. annouces a deal in a Super-rich petroleum-monarchy (how convienent .. fake ?)


sometimes things happen by some kinds of magic ... don't you think ??

about the Dubai deal :

IN USA , there is +/- 350 Millions inhabitants , the share of the total world flights alone is 42%

In the geographic europ (E.U. + some others) there is more than 550 Millions , but the share is ONLY at 31% ...

if you know thatan average European is travelling some 3.41 times more what an average american is travelling ...
(meanning 2 : from far , for US bizz tycoon, it sounds there is lots of rooms to devellop more air-transport in europ , but if european are travelling more than US citizens using less air transport already , this become VERY uncertain ....

european have in average 5 weeks of vacation/year , we don't need to rush where we go on holidays ....)

the European Commision forecast that air transportation is probably going to DECLINE in the next few years (costs , others Public transports, environement concerns , etc...)

the super-bonus question is :

knowing thoses remarks above , do you think european market need pilots ?? or air-jet-taxi concept ??

fred said...

atm ...

this is called a LETTER 149 !

149 being the article of the crimminal law of nigeria punishing such things ...!!

10 years of deprivation of liberty (??? probably a rock tied to your foot and off in the streets you go ...!)


but i see allusion here ?? EA149 instead of EA500 ??? noooo!!!

airtaximan said...

BTW,

no way Ken will wager anything to back upwhat he SAYS.

we tried this a year ago, regardng his emphatic disagreement with my contentionDayjet had more than 1,000 e-clips orders and options out of their order book stated to be 2500 at that time.

he backed away really fast from the wager.

- he will not and cannot back up most of what he says about the company
- he will not take a friendly wager on a point which he apparently has strong written opinions about, but no confidencein personally

Just a friendly observation from this blog

Did we ever have a "closing date" or "re-org date" contest?

ATMAN says- major announcement before Christamas regarding layoffs or re-org, unles they raise a lot more money (small to Vern and companred to what was burned so far...but a lot to most folks!) I say December 20

Gunner said...

"ATMAN says- major announcement before Christamas regarding layoffs or re-org, unles they raise a lot more money (small to Vern and companred to what was burned so far...but a lot to most folks!) I say December 20"

Sometimes you REALLY piss me off, ATM. Like with the ConJet. I was (to my recollection) the only one who stood by you from the start and agreed that Vern would go with the cheaper SE rather than a larger plane for his next hat trick.

Do I get any credit for that? Any recognition? Noooooo.

And so, history repeats and I agree emphatically. Production will come to a standstill by end of year, with major layoffs included. Chapter 11 reorg by the end of February.

Once again, however, you'll get all the credit.

Where's the love?

;-)
Gunner

airtaximan said...

OK, you pick a date for the re-org... if you want the 20th, its yours!

PS. I admire your wager with Ken... and you know of course, based on history, there's no way... right?

Lotsa love man... just trying to have a friendly contest. YOU CAN TAKE THE CREDIT FOR INITIATING THE RE-ORG/close down DISCUSSION.

K?

Funny man.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Flight center has already added a few predictions to his spread sheets.

I was not specific about a chapter 11 date, but just made some statements of some milestones Eclipse would never reach due to Chapter 11.

My guess is Chapter 11 on Tuesday 29.01.2008. I predict there will be one attempted resusitation, that will fold by the end of 2008, and then the fat lady will sing a solemn sonata for Eclipse Aviation.

I'm not so sure how long the law suits will run for. Are the Enron suite all finished yet?

Niner Zulu said...
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Niner Zulu said...
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AeroObserver said...
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FreedomsJamtarts said...

"We understand a customer’s circumstances can change"

Putting this Vernagram through babblefish results in:

"Some customers get sick of being lied to and getting nothing but empty promises".

Shane Price said...

Flightcentre,

Put me in as follows:-

Material layoffs or other downsizing = 21st January 2008

Failure of financing and/or Chapter 11 = 1st March 2008

Cessna pick up the bits = June 2008

Ken explains all to REAL boss in Meyer household = Tuesday.

Gunner,

Thanks for the feedback. Best wishes with the whole 'Epic' experience. It looks (from afar) to be a really clever piece of kit.

Oh, and I'll cover you on Ken with deal of my own. I'll buy you a proper pint (or three) if you ever find yourself at a loose end in Ireland....

..... if Ken takes you up on the bet.

Deal?

You should be made aware that I am very mean, and don't expect I'll be buying the aforementioned pints!

Shane

airtaximan said...

prediction:

SEC/DOJ will do an investigation and set guidelines for aircraft deposit agreements and the use of funds related to those agreements

progress payments made by a depositor will only be able to be used for the actual purchase of parts for that aircraft and the labor associated with building that aircraft

money will be in escrow, and released from escrow to the manufacturer upon both parties consent

there will be the presumption that orders received will be given a S/N which will be in order of production, unless a buyer specifically requests a later delivery. The S/Ns and order book will be transparent to the buyer

At no time shall the cash on hand of the company plus the escrow deposits be less than the sum of potential refund amounts to buyers

...just some "revolutionary" new aviation industry concepts for which E-clips can take credit for

JetProp Jockey said...

In the US Bankruptcy laws, there are two forms of voluntary bankruptcy - one for reorganization and one for liquidation. In both of these cases the company recognizes the financial crisis and goes to the federal court for protection from its creditors.

There is another form of Bankruptcy that allows a group of creditors to force a company into involuntary bankruptcy to protect their interests.

Interestingly, since all of the depositors represent a major group of creditors, they can, as a group hire an attorney and petition the court for help. Assuming judge see merits in the petition, he can force the company to prove that they are solvent and the assets of the creditors are not being wasted.

I would think, although I am not a bankruptcy attorney (I have had several customers use this protection and have had one occasion to form a creditors committee to force a customer into reorganization) that the latest actions by Eclipse could be enough evidence to force a disclosure.

The question is how many really nervous customers are our there right now.

Ken Meyer said...

gunner wrote,

"Ten Thousand dollars (or any part of that you've a hankerin' for) that says Eclipse won't raise the $30MM from customers by December 14th. You game?"

Did you never grow up, Rich? I suppose that's why you keep playing with toy guns all the time.

In any event, the "real boss of the Meyer family" says you can forget it. She doesn't think you'd pay.

Ken

airtaximan said...

babblefish results for the whole Mconnelgram:

"mike press screwed the pooch with his latest reports which honestly described conditions at EAC...so
F%$k him"

Also: "we do not want anyone knowing what's really going on inside EAC"

Also: "we do not want anyone knowing the number of positions/planes available on the aftermarket - its embarassing, and its ruining our business"

PS. FWIW, I would just use Mike Press - he's independant (moreso) honest (moreso) and he has no stake other then to create a mutually beneficial transaction. EAC has their own interest, which conflicts with this - imagine them telling you waht to sell your plane for? Imagine them telling buyers what they should offer? Imagine no more transactions becasue their interest is to keep supply low and prices high. The last thing they need is the price erosion they've enjoyed thus far.

EOxxx, thoughts?

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Lame comeback Ken. (sounds like something form south park)

fred said...

the Mike Press thing is really weird ....!

first they piss-off original furnishers...

then they do it to depositors ...

then they do it to others furnishers ...

then they do it with workforce ...

then they do it with vendors ...


who's next ???


in the prediction gamble :

i would say Vern goes skiing for christmas in Aspen Falls (it's a bit posh and expensive , but who's paying ??)

he breaks 1 (or2) legs there ...

he cannot come back due to his poor health status ...

only the janitor and minor floor worker keeps on coming for doing their shift ...

at that point , it is tally ho , evry depositor , furnisher , unpaid whatever , unpaid staff gather to share a piece of what left ...!!

all of that : end of january/beg. february ...!


(ken if you get your plane , i offer you a first class seat for you and shari to come spend a week in paris , free of charge ...!)

airtaximan said...

Ken:

perhaps an education on risk...

I believe Rich offered to escrow the money with EOXXX or someone else (like I did on my wager proposal) to assuage the "will not pay" risk you outlined.... as your excuse for not accepting the wager.

So, money's in trust, won't be touched unless soeone clearly wins the wager... you in?

PS> your keen observation of risk associated with non-performance by one party is curious considering your wager on e-clips to deliver plane(s)... money out of escrow, progress payments made, no trackrecord of honesty, integrity, performance, or even ability to perform according to promises regarding delivery of fully functioning planes as promised.

Why so hard on Gunner for 10K?

airsafetyman said...

Don't be so hard on the Kenster. I think he is looking at a "cavity" -(or two!) - in his bank account.

JetFan said...

Eclipse AD

SUMMARY: The FAA is adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for certain Eclipse Aviation Corporation Model (Eclipse) EA500 airplanes. This AD requires you to inspect the fuel filler adapters for primer and/or paint in the surround and, if present, remove the primer and/or paint. This AD results from an observation during a factory walk-around that the fuel filler surround was primed instead of being bare metal. We are issuing this AD to inspect and, if necessary, remove any paint and/or primer to restore the fuel filler adapter lightning strike protection. A lightning strike on the filler cap with insulating primer on the surround could result in the strike not dissipating to the surround. This could lead to arcing and ignition of fuel vapor inside the fuel tank.

Gunner said...

Ken aid:
"Did you never grow up, Rich?"

Yes, Ken. I "arrived" at maturity when I started paying my own way on my investments and risks. Just ask Diamond, Epic or Eclipse. I proved my maturity when I did such deals without hawking any one of the above products to all and sundry as a "revolutionary value proposition".

You, on the other hand, encourage everyone who'll listen to take risks that you're not willing to take. Oh, sure, you talk the talk about purchasing Mustangs and sending Vern the most recent $625K pledge plea. But you won't back it up, preferring to excuse such lame behavior with a personal attack on my integrity in a bet.

Tell you what, Brother. Take the bet and I'll send EO a cashiers check for $10,000 TODAY. And I'll TRUST you to pay, if you lose.

I don't mind you putting your tail between your legs, Ken. Just don't try to take the High Road when you do. You've engaged in grandiose boasts and petty attacks here. Back 'em up with some skin in the game. If you do, "I'm your huckleberry".

If not, well, I guess you're just another wannabe warrior looking to hold THE OTHER GUY'S coat while he takes the risks.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

Gunner,

now I'm PISSED.

Please stop refering to a deposit with e-clips as an "investment"... it is "speculation".

these are different
;)

airtaximan said...

wonder why he didn't include the paint AD in their Special Plea-Offer?

baron95 said...

Eclipse reported to GAMA delivery of 27 EA500s and billings of $35M in the third quater. That is up from 17 deliveries and $21M in billings for the second quarter.As comparisson, Cessna delivered 10 510s in 2Q and 15 in 3Q.

So it looks like Eclipse is delivering almost twice as many jets as Cessna for almost half the price.

Should have some value as a going concern for a bidder when they go to bankruptcy court.

If Cessna picked up Columbia for $26M, Eclipse must be worth at lease 5x that in Bankruptcy - say $100M or so, pending the liabilities that would remain.

airtaximan said...

Baron,

Yup, I hear a rumor that Jack Pelton is now crafting a letter to the e-clips depositors basically guaranteeing them $500,000 off the current price of a Mustang, if they send him $650,000 non-refundable progress payments today.

The plan is to close e-clips, and take half the real orders, around 500 or so net, and trade them up to Mustangs.

That's $325M, less $100M for e-clips in BK (your price), plus he gets the 500 real orders, for his Mustang, where he makes real money.

That's if there's anyone else looking. If not, just let them migrate naturally.

I'm joking of course.. Cessna has the money, probably not the desire.

Jim Howard said...

Just a note from the peanut gallery.

I (just a peon,not any kind of internet manners cop) ask the unfaithful to please keep their schadenfreude under control.

I ask the faithful to try and provide whatever helpful information you have, and do the best you can to ignore some of the silly childish comments.

I (just a peon,not any kind of internet manners cop) respectfully ask everyone to please think twice before making this discussion so very personal.

This is a fasinating chapter in the history of the aviation.

There are so many participants on both sides of the issues here who are so very knowledgeable about business and about aviation.

Personal attacks will spoil this valuable well of knowledge for everyone.

Again I claim no authority of any kind, I'm just offering a suggestion.

Gunner said...

AT-
I was being generous in using Ken's term, "investment". It's not that I'm picking on him; he brings these things on himself, every time he shills for Vern:
"It is actually a good arrangement for many of the customers. I am, myself, contemplating it."

Oy!

As to the Death Pool, I'll take December 15 for major layoffs and production slowdown; February 28 for BK filing, voluntary or involuntary not specified.
Gunner

baron95 said...

AT

I don't think Cessna is a candidate for picking up Eclipse. It makes no sense to do so.

I think we can safely assume that PiperJet is a long shot, D-Jet will have serious problems with payload/range, so the Mustang is the only place for Eclipse customers to go in the short term. No special enticement needed.

Now, the ECJ would be a really nice step up place from the Cessna 350/400, but given that it is just a PoC it has little value.

I'd love to see the single engine personal jets come to market, though - as that is the plane that suits me the most. But with their strongest (best funded, bigger plans) competitor about to be done, Cessna will (in typical fassion) procrastinate.

baron95 said...

Just wanted to say that, whatever happens to Eclipse, they really pushed Cessna to produce the 510-Mustang and P&W to create the 610/15/17 engine family.

That is a step jump in light jets capabilities.

Gunner said...

Death Pool:
Change my date to Dec 17th for layoffs announcement. The 15th is a Friday and Vern will scramble for the money right up until Midnight. No announcements on the weekend. Pink slips on Monday the 17th.
Gunner

John said...

Interesting shift in Dayjet destination matrix

Tallahassee, Lakeland flights have disappeared. Flight numbers way are down, but single flights to Fairhope, Naples, Sarasota, Ocala and Georgia islands.

Did passengers suddenly and abruptly decide to stop traveling to Tallahassee, Gainesville, and Lakeland this week?

Perhaps those flights didn't have many paying passengers in the past, and Dayjet is finally cutting off the charade, flying its route without passengers?

airtaximan said...

gunner, the 10% layoff occured on a Friday, if memory serves.General rule n business...

There are those who dismiss on Fridays, and those who understand the weekend is no time to be "just laid off"... it can always wait until Monday.

Humane

Metal Guy said...

John,
Would you be so kind as to post the raw numbers and any trend info? It’s quite interesting to follow. The flat-lined web traffic report for DJ previously posted is downright depressing (but not unexpected by some).

Jim Howard said...

Based on my experience in several software startup disasters, I don't think pink slips on a Monday likely.

If you layoff on Monday the former employees are in their lawyers offices on Tuesday.

Friday is the best day for a big layoff. That way the employees have the weekend to cool off before they run to lawyers.

I also don't think a pre-Christmas layoff is likely, the PR is just to horrible.

My opinion is that a major announcement involving layoffs and/or restructuring is possible on December 28, 2007.

FlightCenter said...

I've added a tab to the
Eclipse Aviation Critic Projections spreadsheet titled Company Milestones.

Based on Vern's letter and on the resulting discussion, I've included the following categories:

$30M in Escrow,
Additional Financing Closed,
Layoff,
Management Change,
Chapter 11,
Chapter 7, and
Sold.

I've also included the most recent projections from the folks making predictions. Take a look to see if your prediction was captured accurately.

I also added another tab titled Service Center Milestones.

This tab includes the most recent plans for service center completions, training capacity and retrofit availability based on the last letter.

These categories include:
Albany Service Center
Van Nuys Service Center
Full motion Sim on line
Training Gap closed
Aeromod retrofit availability
AvioNG retrofit availability
FIKI retrofit boot availability

If anyone has a link to published communications regarding the previous commitments Eclipse has made for service center and training capability, I'll include those in the spreadsheet as well.

John said...

Metal guy,
My data is off the flightaware site. Their terms-of-service prevent me from legitimately repackaging their data.

I'm not even sure I can post my script that scrapes the Dayjet numbers.
This link to DJS109 History is a good starting point, as all one has to do is step through the 20 DJS tail numbers.

1. Flight DJS109 History
2. Flight DJS110 History
3. Flight DJS115 History
4. Flight DJS116 History
5. Flight DJS119 History
6. Flight DJS126 History
7. Flight DJS130 History
8. Flight DJS131 History
9. Flight DJS132 History
10. Flight DJS134 History
11. Flight DJS135 History
12. Flight DJS136 History
13. Flight DJS139 History
14. Flight DJS141 History
15. Flight DJS142 History
16. Flight DJS145 History
17. Flight DJS146 History
18. Flight DJS147 History
19. Flight DJS148 History
20. Flight DJS150 History

JetProp Jockey said...

John-

Relative to the change in the flight profiles in and out of Tallahassee last week. If Florida is like Pennsylvnia the people in state govermnent get the whole week of Thanksgiving off.

Maybe a fair amount of the less then stellar traffic is coming from high level legislators and staff members in state government. DayJet had certainly been a pet project of the governor.

chip_devlyn said...

"Our business model is based on high rate production and when we fall behind, there are more consequences than simply a delay" - Vern Raburn

Vern's original draft said, "our business model was based on a revolutionary aircraft, having failed that . . .

Black Tulip said...

As we anticipate the end, which of these time-honored phrases will be used”

“…resigned for personal reasons.”

“…resigned to spend more time with his family.”

“…expected to assume a teaching post at…”

“…assumes a post in the new administration.”

EclipseOwner387 said...

ATMAN,

Concerning the Eclipse brokerage:

I am skeptical that they can do the job as effectively as independant brokers. They are biased as the "dealer." Pure brokers tend to bring together buyers and sellers with more confidence. At $5000 per trade this will not be a profit center. Eclipse will be surprised at how much effort goes into these deals. Brokers must be willing to work 24/7 to make it work. My opinion.

gadfly said...

Gunner

It’s a moot point, but Friday the 13th comes on Thursday in December, so Friday is really the 14th, not the 15th. But the 17th still remains on Monday . . . with deliveries scheduled for Tuesday.

Now, an appropriate date would seem to be in keeping with the name, “Eclipse”, which from the start seemed most appropriate. A “solar eclipse” will occur on February 7th, 2008 . . . but will only be observed in New Zealand, Australia, and Antarctica. But a “lunar eclipse” that may be observed in Albuquerque, will occur on February 29th , 2008 . . . 03:26:05 UT (Universal Time).

So, we all wonder just when the “eclipse” of “Eclipse” will occur. The only thing certain is that it is certain. I became “certain” about the time that the little bird fluttered around ABQ for an hour, declared “success”, money was collected out of escrow . . . and “then” it was announced that it wasn’t “exactly” a successful flight. A slight “whiff” of a strange, but familiar, odor drifted across the landscape . . . something in the process of dying.

A plea for funds could be made, or Vern (and “company”) might disappear into the darkness of an “eclipse” . . . sort of like the infamous “Oral Roberts” . . . but all that is a stretch. It worked for “Oral”, but maybe not a second time. On second thought, history has a strange way of becoming repetitious.

Anyway, the question remains as to whether or not Eclipse can survive into the “New Year”. It might be difficult to really tell . . . history confirms that Albuquerque is virtually “dead” from “The Day of the Turkey” up through “The Day of the Pigskin” . . . heavy dependence on government funded “labs”, etc., and copious amounts of ingested “tryptophan” (and other excuses for “not working”).

The only prediction that I can make is that in the next few weeks/months we will get calls from people looking for work . . . willing to work for “peanuts”, skilled in riveting and stir frying . . . and we’ll have to say, “No!” . . . we’re fresh out of peanuts.

gadfly

(Fact: New Mexico is a major producer of peanuts. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to live on “peanuts”, alone.)

(Black Blossom: You've been reading too many "US of A" newspaper articles . . . and I find your comments most amusing!)

gadfly said...

John

Thanks for your "post" . . . it is quite helpful, in evaluating the activities of "so-called" complete aircraft.

gadfly

airtaximan said...

EO,

Kinda what I thought.

No way they are doing the brokerage thing to make $5k a plane... what's your read on the motive?

PS. are you buying nowadays? didn't think so.

Glad to see you are well. Thanks for the reply. Interesting times.

airtaximan said...

I find CWMR last Blog Post (by Stan) "Where did it all go wrong" extremely timely given the recent Plea-Special Offer....

paying attention clearly and sanely, adding up one plus one... ccomine up with two.

Reading between the lines.

Nice job.

EclipseOwner387 said...

ATMAN,

The speculation is that Eclipse wants to reduce the inventory in the secondary market to make it easier to sell new positions.

FlightCenter said...

EO387,

I agree completely with your comments about the value of an independent broker - having used two aircraft brokers in the last year. It is a significant advantage if the broker is available 24/7.

What seems like a simple transaction is inevitably complicated by "interesting" requests from buyer or seller, contract language, escrow agents, title search and, in the case of Eclipse, negotiating their approval of the transaction. A professional and trusted intermediary is critical to closing the deal.

Eclipse has a vested interest in managing the market and these transactions. On top of that, they will inevitably have higher priority activities than selling an aftermarket aircraft.

Mike Press's broker fee is very reasonable and while your mileage may vary, his services have resulted in very high satisfaction and have paid back the fee many times over.

Plastic_Planes said...

Brokers must be willing to work 24/7 to make it work.

But everybody else in manufacturing works 24/7.

I know - not the same thing...

"101 Uses for an Eclipse"

#6 Put one on a stick, cover it wth blue mosaic tiles and put it on the other corner of San Mateo & Gibson (You Abby QQ guys know what I am talking about)

FlightCenter said...

Gadfly,

Does that mean that there will be a partial Eclipse in ABQ on February 7, 2008?

airtaximan said...

EO,

and HOW would this work? How will they achieve their goal?

gadfly said...

Some folks can afford to commit to the purchase of a “twin jet” . . . and maybe lose their down-payment, etc. But here in Albuquerque, the folks that may come to work for the “manufacturer” (pardon me, the “assembler”), do not have the resources to simply pick up an look for new work. In the first place, Albuquerque is NOT another Seattle, or Long Beach, etc., and cannot support a sudden influx of 1,500 semi-technical, semi-trained, semi-“high-tech” workers and their families. Even Intel and others found it hard going to absorb the local work-force . . . it isn’t a “slam-dunk”.

The locals are “smart people”, but it takes time to train them, and assimilate them into the “system”. And for this “out-of-state”, “out-of-touch”, “start-up” to come in, and promise the moon, while unable to understand the most basic elements of manufacturing and the practical application of a human interface . . . well, the whole thing is a travesty in ethics, and overall understanding of management of the vast human resources that support the aviation industry.

Ultimately, one of two things will occur . . . maybe a third, but that’s for another day: Either the “Eclipse” model will take hold, or the “way of the dinosaurs” will continue . . . slow, but safe. If the “Eclipse” model continues, economics will force this travesty to China . . . and the US will be a poor “out of touch second fiddle”. If that is the wish of the “faithful”, then “carry on” . . . go the way of the “Wal-Mart” mentality.

Next time I fly, I’ll make my reservation on a “dinosaur” . . . and if I fly in seat 3A . . . or 2D . . . that’s good enough for me. Shucks, I’ll fly in 22B, if that get’s me there safely, and reasonably “on time”. And I’ll check out to see if they are still using my Dad’s inertial restraint harness system, up in the “cockpit” . . . a fifty-plus-year-old system. (And, I suspect, that the “feathers” on both wings, and the rudder and elevators . . . and, oh yeh, the throttle controls, still use my Dad’s cable-tension-control regulators. Interesting, how the dinosaurs still rule the skies.)

gadfly

(Flight Center: The "partial eclipse" began, in my opinion, years ago. In fact, it began on the day that the first "little bird" took to the skies.)

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bob said...

We always find that it’s better to fire people on a Friday. Study’s have statistically shown the there’s less chance of an incident if you do it at the end of the week.
I also heard that by some glitch in the payroll system that the execs were still receiving a paycheck. The glitch has now been fixed and things will work themselves out naturally.

gadfly said...

Plastic Planes

At the time, the “Chevy on a Stick” seemed to be a mockery of Albuquerque . . . a disabled junk car on blocks, on the edge of town, a final memory of ABQ as countless people drove to the airport and departed the “Land of Enchantment” for parts unknown (paid for by Albuquerque taxes to a “wanna-be” artist from Arizona). And your suggestion seems most appropriate . . . “Eclipse on a Stick” . . . as in . . . Well, we’ll leave it at that!

gadfly

(bob: You and I have the same name, only I spell mine in the opposite order, to avoid confusion . . . and with one "o".)

Old Troll said...

Repent ye sinners. The Epocalypse is nigh!


Maybe the already-scheduled Christmas party will be an "Epocalypso", a caribbean-themed lights out party.

airsafetyman said...

Many of the Eclipse workforce may be visiting this blog. They should not be too discouraged if the worst happens as the industry as a whole is doing well. At the same time a lot of people on this blog have inside info as to who may be hiring aviation workers and info on the type of communities where the jobs are. I personally lived in Greensboro, NC, where Honda is building their plant. It is a wonderful community with several local colleges and a lot to do. Savannah, GA, home to Gulfstream is likewise a very nice place to live. There is life and a career to be had after Eclipse.

gadfly said...

"There is life and a career to be had after Eclipse." That is true! Unfortunately, it may not be in Albuquerque . . . especially in the aerospace industry.

gadfly

flyforfun said...

Ken, you didn't answer my last question. You stated this new offer from Vern was a good deal and even you might take him up on it. If you are actually #151 then you should already have your 60% payment in Vern's coffers. I know someone just after #151 and he has had his money in for many months. Are you paid up or not. What gives.

Dave said...

I also heard that by some glitch in the payroll system that the execs were still receiving a paycheck. The glitch has now been fixed and things will work themselves out naturally.

Has anybody seen my Swingline stapler?

hummer said...

9Z
Who do you think will buy a position
for an Eclipse (any number) until the issue of short or the long term financing is resolved?
Further, Cessna is going to China.
The Skycatcher 162 LSA will be built there. I firmly believe that the Columbia will be built there also and sold here at a $70K to $90K discount below the SR22. The reason I believe this is I have a friend in Zhonghua at the BMW/Brilliance Plant and
they have experienced graduate engineers on the assembly lines and pay them less than
$11,000 USD annually. This figure includes everything. . .wages, overtime, etc.
The assembly and quality of these Beamers are second to none.
How much do you believe a votech
worker with no experience starting out at ABQ earns?
As Ken said, "The train has
left the station". Hopefully,
it's not headed to China.

cj3driver said...

Flyforfun,

I believe Ken previously stated that he has two (2) E500 positions.

airsafetyman said...

"Unfortunately, it may not be in Albuquerque . . . especially in the aerospace industry."

Well, thats a given, but there are places as nice, if not more desirable, than ABQ with aviation firms that ARE hiring.

gadfly said...

Safetyman

As the time narrows down, the information of which you speak should be shared with those who may, soon, need a "heads up" on where to apply. In this way, this "critics' blog" becomes a valuable resource.

gadfly

(Although it's "fun" to make the jokes, all too soon there is going to be little room for humor.)

cj3driver said...

EO said

“… The speculation is that Eclipse wants to reduce the inventory in the secondary market to make it easier to sell new positions…”


Eclipse basically took all the equity away from their customers in the secondary market, with yesterdays “blue light special”. If you purchase an E500 and deposit 625K with Eclipse now, you will be locked in at $1,250,000. no escalations, no CPI. All Eclipse buyers (prospects) already know they have to pony up the 60% - 6 month in either case. They know this when they purchase the position. Now you can buy one directly from Eclipse and save the premium. They will probably give you an earlier slot too. If I were an Eclipse depositor, I would be FUMING right now.

I suspect the resale value of all Eclipse’s (flying or not) just took a $200K to 300K hit. I will add another wager. The auction aircraft will NOT be sold for the current bid. The winning bid will not escalate any higher than the current amount. (with a fools exception).

Eclipse has now set the value of a NEW E500 at $1,250,000. What is a used one worth?

Unless, of course, …. FIKI costs more, Aviong costs more, GPS/FMS cost more, auto-throttle costs more, ect… in which case, Eclipse raises the price and offers refund events. Why not?,… they have done it twice before.

With the value of a NEW E500 at $1,250,000 fixed, What is a used one worth?

Tell me about all that “appreciation” again Ken.

Sad

Dave said...

With the value of a NEW E500 at $1,250,000 fixed, What is a used one worth?

I wonder how that car dealership feels with their Eclipse currently listed at $2M on eBay, which happened before this announcement. I bet they wish they had listed the item earlier so that they could have sold it a few days before the announcement.

cj3driver said...

Dave,
I'll bet the first two bidders on the Eclipse auction are "relieved"

bob said...

Ya, Dave, I hear you're having trouble with your TPS reports, ya, did you get that memo?

cj3driver said...

Regarding the Eclipse “blue light special”

IMHO, Eclipse should have done the exact opposite in order to generate the much needed capital. They should have RAISED the base price of the E500 to $2,395,000 and implemented the following plan:

1. All aircraft not yet delivered and for customers who have deposited their 60% allready, the base price shall be increased to $1,895,000.

This would give Eclipse at least $20,000,000 additional income on the next 30 aircraft.

2. All customers who have not yet sent in their deposits, can send $250K in and lock the price at 1,995,000 with no additional payment until delivery.

These position holders will still have $400K equity in their postions, and reduced program risk and capital outlay until delivery.

3. All others can hold the existing position at 2,295,000 plus CPI with no additional until 6 month prior to delivery, and then 500K.

These position holders will still have earlier slots and $100K equity with minimal risk.

4. All remaining depositors will receive refunds in full.

Better than nothing…. Which is more than what they have now.

------

Why should Eclipse have done this instead?

1. Mustangs are currently 3Q 2010 and $2,995,000 fixed, so the Eclipse would still priced $600K less than the Mustang.

2. The customers will feel more confident that the plane will be delivered.

3. With the additional profit, Eclipse has a much better chance of survival. Better for the entire fleet.

4. Vendors will be more confident and extend better terms.

5. Investors (bankers) will be more confident.

6. Even if this plan costs Eclipse 75% of the order book, they will still be ahead. Most of the book is options and speculators anyhow.

7. The fleet will have instant stable resale value.

8. The price increase will certainly create more potential profits and longevity for the company.

9. The company is still the low price leader.

10. This leaves room for the con-jet to be marketed at a more realistic $1,495,000.

planet-ex said...

Many of the Eclipse workforce may be visiting this blog. They should not be too discouraged if the worst happens as the industry as a whole is doing well. At the same time a lot of people on this blog have inside info as to who may be hiring aviation workers and info on the type of communities where the jobs are. I personally lived in Greensboro, NC, where Honda is building their plant. It is a wonderful community with several local colleges and a lot to do. Savannah, GA, home to Gulfstream is likewise a very nice place to live. There is life and a career to be had after Eclipse.

Greensboro is nice, but I don't think Honda will be hiring any production people from outside Greensboro...they have set up a deal with the local government to train and use local production labor (supposed 2009 production start).

Savannah is not bad...but the mosquitoes are nasty as anything - the city regularly sprays from air and ground in an attempt to control them.

FalconJet is hiring in Little Rock in an attempt to ramp up deliveries (they have a backlog on the 7X to 2012 and there's another mid-cabin in development).

cj3driver said...

ANN quoted Jack Pelton on Skychatcher outsoursing to China,….

"While we wanted the light sport to stimulate new pilot starts and stimulate flight training, with this low cost we aren't going to let it become distractive," Pelton said, adding demand for the Citation business jet is far more profitable -- so much so, Cessna plans to expand its workforce by 1,500 jobs in 2008 to meet demand.
"We have so much growth in front of us today in the Citation," Pelton said.

… 1,500 jobs.


BTW- It looks like Cessna beat their projections for 2007 deliveries a month early. Mustang S/N 45, N761JP, flew away from the factory today, FIKI and all.

Gunner said...

CJ-
There's much sense in what you say. I have to believe Eclipse looked at something like that and rejected it for whatever reason.

What's more telling from your comments, for me anyway, is this: Why WOULDN'T this company raise the price of their jet to $2.2+Million? Seriously.

They have no competition in that price range. It's pretty obvious they their attempt to buy market share at $1.6MM failed miserably and they're loosing the farm on every aircraft produced.

So why not raise the price? Only two possible answers:
1) Ken's answer: The company is doing swimmingly at $1.6MM. After all, they don't need to rake in all the profits the Dinosaurs get by The Conspiracy of Limited Production.

or

2) They know, full well, the demand will absolutely implode at the higher price. But how can that be? Aren't Eclipse and Mustang purchasers pretty much identical? Aren't the planes comparable to the purchasing public? Answer: Perhaps not by a long shot.

Gunner

EclipseOwner387 said...

The proof will be in the eventual outcome but....

I think CJ3Driver has nailed this pretty well. A price INCREASE would have made more sense. My prediction is we will see that after Eclipse plays out this capital raise from customers. I wish Eclipse success as I love the airplane for what it is and want the position holders to be happy with their support. I am concerned that this is a desperation move and would not want to be in the position that Eclipse has put well meaning supporters. In other words, I am glad I have no position at this time.

Niner Zulu said...

Here is an interesting video of an Eclipse arriving in Sabadell, Spain. If you pause the video just before the end so you can take a look at the panel, you'll see two Garmin 430's where the keyboards should be.

Eclipse Arrival in Sabadell, Spain

fred said...

gunner ...

yes , this is a really strange strategy to lower price when the need for a "substantial" increase is probably one of the only way out ...!

it sounds very much like out of desperation , vern is trying to play "banco" (=all tokens on table in one go regardless of cards he draw)...if not just getting some cash to grab before exit ( not to loose too much of his own money ?!crimminal ? yes !first timer in bizz history ? no!)

or

it is a new bluff on speculators ...

most of the orders are from speculators (wether peoples trying to have 2 positions , sell one and this way = have their plane paid by the profit of the re-sale ; or; plain speculators as in good old dot.com time)

what is the problem of EA Corp. = too many peoples too anxious to sale and thru lowering the re-sale price ....

all those personn have positions or are involved into re-sale bizz (that would make some senses to M.Press story)

vern trying to Bluff them by showing " if you keep on being a problem thru making plane availlable at lower price than factory , me Vern of the new religion of E500 will hammer you down by lowering the now factory to such a low , you'll (re-salers) can ONLY loose even more money ..."

if you look at EAC-past-tracks , it sounds very much into the range of possibilities of an hyper-inflated ego as Mr V.R. has...

which is a small light on situation :

1° Vern is 99% sure he has secured an other finances round ( may be he 'll discover this is like boiling water = the few last degrees before boilling are the most difficult to reach...)

2° his ego went so much into fantasies , he still believe into the great success of the start-up VS the dinosaurs ...


3° it is an attemp to have real cash into the desk , may be to survive a little longer (and make us about predictions) or more simply to have a possibilty to grab the said cash and fly away to somewhere there is no extradite agreement ....

anyway it does NOT sounds good !

fred said...

and btw ...

about video ...

it shows proudly a new firm =
"taxijet.es"

it is terribly funny when you type this link ...

you arrive at a copy/translated/paste of EA Corp. website ...

and on first page it is stated
"on sunday the 18th of november , Minister clos came to salute the first flight of a VLJ in spain ...."

sounds very much like propaganda :

a real minister would know E500 in sabadell for the first time (and then areal one would be very CAUTIOUS about having his name linked with a private company ... Remember Spain is NOT USA ! for such things ,in some E.U. contries you can end-up in jail ! ) = May be .... the first flight in Spain = just NO WAY !! it has been done before ... by some others ...

good try to lure some americans (or foolishs from anywhere ?) to think E500 is waited all the world around ??

a quick look at datas show the firm exist since end of june 2007 , would be any personn stupid enough to build-up such a service in a time where most EAC's problems was ALREADY well known ??

one can see in the video , an totally EMPTY hangar ...

if taxijet spain exist since june 2007 , on what are they living NOW ?

god try , Vern ...!

fred said...

i have read the online newspapers of the visit of Joan Clos (spanish minister of tourism , commerce and industry ) to the event mentioned by the video and taxijet ...

it was an exhibition where EA Corp. had a bird (but NOT at all any kind of an event specially for E500...)

funilly enough i didn't read anything on the minister visiting EA Corp. or taxijet and nothing mentioning a flight with the minister onboard a E500 ...

definitely a good try , vern ...

http://www.actualidadaeroespacial.com/Noticias/Industria/Ind03100700.htm

Stan Blankenship said...

From my morning mail:

Subject: Fiero's Drumbeat
Date: Nov 28, 2007 8:48 PM
From the line...

Building 11 has a whole new problem, leading to a scrap rate in excess of 50%. In order to speed up the line, Todd has installed a time clock whistle. It counts down the allotted time for each position of assembly. When (not if) the bell sounds the part is moved down to the next station regardless of whether it has been completed at it's current work station. To date, none has ever been completed...

The unskilled local labor force, trained by the local community college then is forced to "chase the plane" down the line and work in between the next group of tag team newbies trying to complete their portion of the puzzle...

fred said...

stan ...

are you sugesting it is already like in the movie " modern times " with charlie chaplin ??

in the precedent post , i was talking about the spanish minister ...

it's very funny ...

i have read all online news from spain about the subject ..

no one stated the visit on the 18Th , but a few days earlier ...??

sorry , i get it now ... the venue of an E500 is such a big event , an European Union minister has no choice , but to be present ...

risible !

ps: sabadell is a town 20 kms nort-east from barcellona , telephone code area for barcelona is 93 ... (but the next town ,24 kms away from barcellona is 93 , special case ?? )

phone number stated of taxijet is starting by 902 ??? strange again !!

ExEclipser said...

He only needs 48 position holders to accept. Hope it works. Gotta lotta friends out there that need their jobs.

airsafetyman said...

"Greensboro is nice, but I don't think Honda will be hiring any production people from outside Greensboro...they have set up a deal with the local government to train and use local production labor (supposed 2009 production start)."

Honda has already hired some experienced hourly workers from at least one long-time manufacturer. You can bet experienced avionics technicians would get snapped up quickly!

"Savannah is not bad...but the mosquitoes are nasty as anything - the city regularly sprays from air and ground in an attempt to control them."

May be true, but much more pleasant place to live than Wichita in my humble opinion.

"FalconJet is hiring in Little Rock in an attempt to ramp up deliveries (they have a backlog on the 7X to 2012 and there's another mid-cabin in development)."

Excellent info on FalconJet. Absolutely first class company, and a lot of opportunities for further education in LR for employees.

fred said...

stan (and others ...)

EA Corp. was looking on 11/26/07 for quite a lot of workers ...

quality inspector , tooling manager , production flight inspector ...etc...

what i find quite disturbing is the amount of "leading staff" they seems to be looking for ...

may be it won't be a big lay-off , if there isn't anybody how could they fire them ???

Redtail said...

Fred said... one can see in the video , an totally EMPTY hangar ...
if taxijet spain exist since june 2007 , on what are they living NOW ?

Freddie, you see only what you want to see. What kind of economist did you say you were? Would you rather see an airtaxi operator with a hangar full of planes, or an empty hangar? Answer (for you): If they're in the hangar, they're on the ground, not flying.

I'm not saying that you are wrong and they have assets in the air, but you really look at all this as a "half-empty" kind of guy. Open your mind up to other possibilities.

Black Tulip said...

Ken has expressed little concern over future depreciation of his Eclipse. His analysis shows that even if the aircraft’s value is zero after he’s flown it, the numbers work for him.

Perhaps the factory was listening. Under the new Eclipse plan, a greatly accelerated depreciation schedule may bring the aircraft value to near zero before delivery. Now that’s a disruptive value proposition.

Metal Guy said...

It’s truly amazing how quiet Ken gets when his foot, ankle, legs, ass, hips, torso and arms are all jammed into his mouth…

fred said...

REDTAIL ...

sometimes it could better to keep it shut ...!

what kind of an economist am i ?

quite simple = one with FULL ACCESS to european firms numbers , datas , fiscal statuts,vat numbers , declared earnings , taxs paids , and a few others things i let you imagine ...

WHAT DO YOU THINK I FOUND ABOUT THEM ?

WHY did i write that ?

Because even THE dumbest OF the dumbest could understand this :

TaxiJet is AN EUROPEAN firm (or it would like to be considered as such...) whom is making a buisness of renting a plane WITHOUT E.A.S.A. Certification ???? !!! and without Service-Center ?? (none in this part of the world !!but that's only a detail with a plane needing nannying every very few hours ...!))

if it can be more or less Ok on a private status (still a pain in the ass) sorry to INFORM you IT CANNOT BE DONE FOR COMMERCIAL EARNINGS !!!

which by the way are equal to less than 0 (as in zero , zip , nada !)

i told you = sometimes it's better to keep it shut ...! ;-))

JetProp Jockey said...

Does anyone know if the 300 or so owners who were required by contract to deposit 60% currently have a recourse to demand a refund at this point? I would suspect that up to now, if an early position holder was getting cold feet it made more sense to sell their position and walk away with some positive cash then to try to get a refund.

That picture has now changed with the new lower pricing structure and what anyone would see as a shakey financial situation.

If there is an out at this point, there could be just as many people who now say "give me my deposit back" as those who say "here's my extra $600K+.

One of the most enjoyable reads I have ever has is a book named "King Con" by Stephen Cannell. Although it is written as fiction, it is based on how con artists operate every day in the US. As you read one scam after another which seperate a person from his cash, there is one theme that remains constant. Convince someone that he can make a quick buck and they will set common sense aside.

Let me say that I do not necessarily believe that Eclipse as conceived as a con job, as I don't think anyone within the company will walk away with any money. I think they believed early on that the business model would lead to an IPO that would make alot of people rich, but did not intend to take customers deposits and run the other way.

I truly believe that many positions that have been sold and in some cases resold many times were purchased more as a get rich quick scheme that a true desire to own and operate an E500.

When I was doing my initial training in Lakeland FL to take delivery of my JetProp I trained with a guy who was taking delivery a week ahead of me. He had purchased an early delivery slot for an E500 and was convinced that he would be able to own and fly his JetProp for 3 years (based on the current projections for delivery in 2001 and move up to his jet with $250K in his pocket after selling his JetProp.

All of these years the Eclipse model has been a house of cards built of a belief by investors and customers that they were going to make a quick buck. Not often does a house of cards become a strong structure. I don't think Eclipse is headed that direction.

Redtail said...

Freddie, calm down, you'll pop a vein.

fred said...

Redtail ...

i forgot :

assets = nothing ! apart from the rent of a hangar , which is not to be considered as an asset ! even ken knows that ! wait a second it is not nothing , it is "office furniture " laughable ....!!! in spanish they wrote on promoting themselves " a new era in aircraft industry " sounds familliar ?? for me just TOO funny !!!

and about OPENNING my MIND :

How about is your concerns about my english , nowaday ??? (i am almost dying of laughing !!)

Redtail said...

Freddie said... i am almost dying of laughing !!)

I'll call 911.

Redtail said...

JetProp Jockey said... Does anyone know if the 300 or so owners who were required by contract to deposit 60% currently have a recourse to demand a refund at this point?

Those that paid the 60% are probably receiving their jet for less than the $1.25M price discount. So, the offer really doesn't affect their purchase price anyway.

If there was to be a price increase, that would be an escape event for a refund.

Gunner said...

JPJ-
The con inevitably hinges on one kee factor: GREED, not of the Con-Man, but of the Mark. I agree, Eclipse didn't start out as such; then again neither did Enron.

In the end, original intentions don't buy back lost jobs or squandered savings.
Gunner

fred said...

jetprop...

no runing away is the lastest move ....

but what i suggested is :

Vern is merely writing "EA is not well , I am going down , you (depositors are going down the flush as well , if I succeed , you'll have what you paid for ..."

which is a very insidious way to "push" already position holder to "defend" the matter on such blog ... and to bring the extra-cash or loose all !!!

fred said...

redtail ...

be carefull 911 is as well the number for police ....

if EA Corp. plays dirty , it's better for you to answer :

"did you know them or had anything to do with them ? EAC) "

"ME ...... NO WAY ....!!"

fred said...

gunner

yes , i agree 100%

in the case of EA corp. (or Enron)

a little lie was pushed by another little lie pushed by a litlle bit bigger lie pushed by an even bigger lie and so on ....

at the end : they cannot say or do anything without being crossed by a former lie , that a nasty Unfaithfull is going to remember ....

at the end , the result is the same ...!

for some warm seas and margaritas on the beach (may be)

for others , tears !

airtaximan said...

from

"Albuquerque airplane manufacturer offers discounts to attract capital
By The Associated Press
Article Launched: 11/29/2007 06:52:23 AM MST



...Eclipse also is offering to new customers a $1.4 million set price with an immediate deposit of $840,000.

Earlier this month, aviation industry analyst Boenning & Scattergood said Eclipse might need more cash from investors to make it through the rest of the year. But Eclipse has argued that it's not in shaky financial condition.

"This is not an act of desperation," Raburn said.

Instead, he said, $30 million in deposits from customers would enhance Eclipse's fundraising ability with investors."

airtaximan said...

this story has just turned from an "aircraft industry" story into a harsh look at "human nature".

I have always said the die-hards (named as such by Vern -affectionately, I'm SURE) were a special breed.

If they truly ARE as blind to risk as they have sometimes apeared on this blog, this story is going to continue for some time...

If they wake up...

It's all about the threshold for identifying and dealing with risk. Greed vs Fear.

Gotta love it. Pushing it to its limit, unabashedly.

FlightCenter said...

Since there are roughly 1,000 individuals who have made deposits on an Eclipse 500 and those depositors are high net worth individuals and the deposits/investments they have made are at risk based on management's latest offer....

Eclipse depositors/owners could form a group which would be able to provide the next round of financing on terms and conditions that would be favorable to the owner/depositor group.

Each individual depositor has demonstrated the financial ability to provide funding of over a million dollars and as there are roughly 1,000 depositors/investors, that means that the group could call on over a billion dollars between them.

airtaximan said...

FC,

I dare say, these folks (and I doubt very much there are 1,000 of them, anyway... last report by Vern there were 750) probably already participated in some of the several financings.

Many of them were obviously just in it to make $100-$300k (over 100 sales in the aftermarket last year and another 70 or so reported already this year) so they were ""short timers", just trying to make a buck.

I'm sure there are the Travolta's, and some other fabulously wealthy individuals (someare SO wealthy are even planning to buy their wife a matching jet!!!) in the order book...

It's all a matter of greed and fear.

- do you believe you should be increasng your deposit NOW, fivefold?
- do you believe Vern now, regarding the remaining issues? He's NEVER been right... he even said it himself at NBAA. So this will mean they need more and more cash.
- do you believe someone else will provide the additional cash of say $200M or more (my guess...who knows?)
- do you even think they have a tail supplier any more?
- do you believe Dayjet will continue to take planes... eventhough the utilization seems to be declining?

My sense is, the e-clipse die-hard is probably not as wealthy (in general) as one would think. There's an offering that is the GOLD standard of aviation, within financial reach for anyone wealthy enough to really afford an e-clips. If they cannot afford a Mustang, they probably cannot afford to blow $700k.

They will be very lucky to get more than 10-20 people to bite. That's a small percentage of 750.

One more thing - If you believe Vern, and somehow THIS "show of faith" with $700k is required to "make additional financing" easier, plus their attempt to take back the secondary market with the $500 brokerage idea - perhaps someone in the financial community is balking at the quality or validity of the order book.

It would appear that the many planes on controller (already delivered) plus the number of positions available at a discount at all times over the last year or so... around 40... would make it seem like as the intial "Dicounted" buyers numbers comeup - they might just walk away from their $100k.

Perhaps new financing is saying "we do not believe the guys buying the planes for $1.5 million will take delivery".

Perhaps Vern agree's and is trying to find an iron clad way of ensuring they actually DO take their planes... lower the price... increase the deposit risk - classic risk/reward.

I wonder how the initial depositors who got the planes for $1.2M because they slept at the hotel and went non-refundable on day one feel?

Does Dayjet still have equity in their fleet if planes are being offered today at $1.2M?

fred said...

yes flightcenter...

it is called a syndication's loan ...!

i don't know about precise finance situation of EAc , but that could be an exit ....!

on that case , new investors can spread some "butter" but honestly , without dramatic changes at EAc (including burning Vern in the backyard .. :-) ) i do not really see the point ...

if that case is to be taken , EAc is in a much more troubled situation (Vern has to admit he has lost control...) and it can be good ONLY if the overall picture can be anything else than a nightmare...!

it could be as well a good thing for a shark-investor (with a bulletproof vest and concrete cojones ) to save EAc for a $ !

it only depends on what is written in RED in the book ...!!

that story could live for a little longer , this way is unlikely but still an option for Vern ...


honestly i don't see peoples buying a plane because "it's cheap" launching a multi millions $ syndication ... at the risks to make greater losses ...

chip_devlyn said...

I can't imagine Eclipse raising it's price at this time. I Once they go above the $2million barrier, the jig is up. I cannot imagine a way to announce more loudly and clearly - "We have failed in all we've set out to achieve. We have no magic formula, no innovative technology . Everyone who said 'we couldn't do, so neither can you', was right all along."

fred said...

it is a beautifull "hobson's choice" (i am not familliar with this term )

you got trapped into getting a non-refundable deposit ...

now your choice is :

NOT to back-up , you loose iniial deposit ...

You back-up , and put yourself at greater risks ...

others word = you have to decide if you paid for nothing , or pay more in hope to get something ....


sorry , i wouldn't like to be a depositor ...!!!

eclipso said...

gadfly said...
Safetyman

As the time narrows down, the information of which you speak should be shared with those who may, soon, need a "heads up" on where to apply. In this way, this "critics' blog" becomes a valuable resource.


There is plenty of work in the DFW, Texas area between Bell, Lockheed, Voight and ALL are hiring a bunch of folks as we speak. The area is cheap and housing is plentiful. I hate to see it end, but had to bail from ABQ as I saw it coming quite a few months ago

rcflyer said...

airtaximan said,

"I wonder how the initial depositors who got the planes for $1.2M because they slept at the hotel and went non-refundable on day one feel?"

I imagine they still feel pretty good, because their price is $995k NOT $1.2M.

One of the problems on this blog is that there are far too many well-reasoned, logical arguments that start with an incorrect premise! All of the logic in the world won't fix wrong data.

Now, somebody will make a cute statement using one of the above phrases, applying it to Eclipse Aviation. I'll go ahead and laugh now, and get it out of the way. Ha ha.

But, I thought you guys were all smarter than Eclipse?

R.C.

FlightCenter said...

ATM,

Many of the depositors I've met over the years could easily afford much larger planes. One had a G IV but wanted his Eclipse 500 to fly to the Vineyard on the weekends.

The average individual depositors that I've met were not stretching to find a million dollars.

To your point about trusting forecasts from the company - one of the terms and conditions I'd expect that any new set of investors to insist on would be a management change, starting at the top.

The question is, can the company be saved? I'd submit that it would be hard to find a more motivated group of investors dedicated to finding a way to make the company successful than the current owners and depositors.

airtaximan said...

FC,

I'll bite... how many e-clips depositors have you met?

how come so many folks are selling to make $100k?

I guess Ken is an outlier?

Like I said, some could be John Travolta types... I suspect most are not - just a hunch.

Your point about motivation is well taken. These guys have bought in hook-line-and-sinker a long time ago.

Is the motivation to obtain a reliable glass coskpit plane that is safe, usefull and fun to fly?

airtaximan said...

rc,

point well taken...but, when you have equity of around $700k dry up to $200k, in amarket where most of the sales are ocurring at below factory... with "factory" potentially now at $1.25, its pretty shallow.

sorry if I was not precise - I guess the point still stands?

thanks

WhyTech said...

FC asks:

"The question is, can the company be saved?"

My answer would be , yes, of course. The issue is whether what is required to save E-clips makes business sense - IOW, allows the Company to become a growing, profitable business with returns to investors commensurate with the risk they are taking. I doubt serously that E-clips can attain this state from here.

WT

flightguy said...

I hear alot of worry from the deposit holders. The deposit holders can walk away at any time. Since FIKI was not completed within the prescribed timeframe, the depositors can ask for their money back. Of course they are not going to profit from the last few years, but they can get their money while Eclipse still has it.

It's the employees that need relief. I appreciate everyone voicing locations for employment. I have spoken with numerous ex-Eclipse employees and all are happy to gone and relieved the put the situation and that chapter of life behind them.

WhyTech said...

fg said:

"Since FIKI was not completed within the prescribed timeframe, the depositors can ask for their money back. Of course they are not going to profit from the last few years, but they can get their money while Eclipse still has it."

Yes, it does appear that despsitors have the right to request a refund of their deposits. My bet is that this would be useless because E-clips does not have the cash to refund more than a handful of deposits, and I doubt that they would elect to use what cash they have this way regardless of depositors rights. Even suing E-clips for return of deposit is likley only to force them into bankruptcy.

WT

Shane Price said...

The key reason Vern made the offer is crystal clear.

He needs that cash, and he needs it FAST.

What you must ask is WHY?

My thinking is that he needs to convince whoever he has lined up for the 'percentage' extra required that the customers are real, that they are keen to get their jets and that they will lock themselves in.

Now that a lot of the 'early adopters' are out (either they have their bird or sold the position) most of those remaining are already over the '$995,000' price point.

Soooo.....

Offering to lock in at $1,250,000 seems like a good offer, but in reality is just a way to gather the real fish.

No, not ColdWet.

The REAL cash, which is a $200,000,000 (or thereabouts) that is now required to get out from under the hostages Vern has given to fortune over the years.

Shane

Niner Zulu said...

One member of the E500 Club is in their forum today, trying to pursuade other owners to ante up the $625,000 to help Eclipse "buy a little time" to secure better long-term financing.

Supposedly, the recent June financing has some provisions in it that will trigger if Eclipse doesn't come up with the money. Eclipse is trying to avoid this situation. What the June provisions are I don't know, and the person writing it didn't say, which to me says "Not Good".

Also, Eclipse supposedly has "other options" if they can't secure the $30 million from position holders. What are those options? Again, he's not telling.

But, in the end he tells his buddies they will "benefit from this program" and that they'll be "missing the boat" or "missing a huge return" if they don't jump on board. They are being asked to take a leap of faith, since they are not privvy to Eclipse's confidential financials.

Just like a hot stock tip from your hairdresser, there are no details coming from Eclipse that would allow position holders to make an informed decision as to the risk of their investment.

Since the person giving this advice is also an investor in Eclipse and has already lost 100% of his investment, what I'd like to know is why on earth would anyone take his advice?

fred said...

shane ...

(how're doing by the way ?)

200.000.000 US$ to let the hostages walk free ???

a rough estimate to comply to E.U. rules on spare-parts , servicing , facilities and all the stuff "funny peoples"(in brussels) may declare a "must do" ...

i'll say about 230 to 250 M US$ if they want to survive and have sometime in future EASA cert.

i smell that the story about the 30M us$ are required for a leverage , that would be a good stunt ...!

rcflyer said...

airtaximan,

Your points were indeed well taken, and I don't dispute them.

My mini-diatribe was not aimed at that post, since the fact I corrected was not key to your argument.

Regards,

R.C.

airtaximan said...

WT,

my sense is that this is the real reason not a lot of folks ahve asked for refunds... there's no practical way to get the money back.

Perhaps new money see's this risk. If I was putting up the money, I would want asurances that somehow, the risk of default is gone - so that if I put money up, there's no way it goes for anything other than operations.

Same with depositors putting up new money based on the Plea-Special Offer. If they put up money, and the company continues, and depositors further down the line get skiddish and realize the after market could yield them a plane for hundreds of thousands LESS than their current ptices... don;t you think they would walk or demand their money back under the FIKI default?

Big risk.

FlightCenter said...

ATM,

It's hard to say, but I'd guess I've had conversations with over 100 depositors, maybe closer to 200 depositors over the last 7 years.

airtaximan said...

FC,

that's impressive.
I defer...

airtaximan said...

FC,

BTW, how? This amazes me... unless you work there, are financing aircraft for them, providing insurance, re-selling???

BTW, not trying to out you.. just curious.

cj3driver said...

ATM said;

“…my sense is that this is the real reason not a lot of folks ahve asked for refunds... there's no practical way to get the money back…”


ATM

Either there has not been a precedence for refund event or Eclipse is not making good on the refund promise as you say. There is one “no premium” listing on controller (Coldwell Banker) and one on Mike Press’s website.

If Eclipse was making good on the refund option, why would these listings be active?

airtaximan said...

cj3,

good point...

2 possiblities (I can imagine...there are probabaly a lot more)

1- imperfect knowledge
2- better chance of "getting the money" through a sale rather than asking for a refund and creating a run...

PS. is this no premium over what they paid, or what is due in total at delivery from e-clips? Big difference

cj3driver said...

ATM, ad reads:

Position for sale. No premium.

We're a real estate company whose business needs have changed since the purchase of this position.
We're selling it at NO PREMIUM. Pay us for the deposit we have with Eclipse ($125,000) and fast forward through a couple of years of wait time.

Serial#1239. Expected delivery date: Q4 of 2008.

This ad has been running for a few months now. last update Oct 25

JetProp Jockey said...

cj3 - I don't think at SN that high would have a refund claim - I believe that only the 60% guys have a refund claim.

Anyone know if those who have taken delivery with IOU's have had to pay the full price or is some money held back?

cj3driver said...

JPJ said
"... I don't think at SN that high would have a refund claim - I believe that only the 60% guys have a refund claim...."

JPJ,
So if you send in your 60%, then you can claim a refund? or does Eclipse then modify the contract excluding FIKI, ect.?

airtaximan said...

clear enough..

see 1 or 2 above.

any ideas?

Perhaps the FIKI refund event was offered already and not taken?

Anyone?

not a pilot said...

I understand Eclipse raised $210 million in July (after fees, expenses and $50 million debt payoff) ...

Does anyone have any idea how large their past-due vendor payment check run might have been?

If their burn-rate is around $15 million (as I read in an earlier post) and they're in a tight financial position now, the vendor payments in July / August must have been around $130 million ... leaving them with 5 months of available cash burn, which would be drying up near the end of the year.

Based on this line of thought, the $30 million they're trying to raise might get them close to March, when hopefully a new round of fund-raising could be complete ...

this is mostly speculation, but the numbers seem to make sense given the amount of news lately

any thoughts?

Gunner said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

Not A Pilot-
Alexa, who claimed to be in a position to know, openly admitted that the July raise pretty much went right back out to past dues.

But a $15 Million dollar cash burn per month? I think that's WAY optimistic...especially if planes are rolling off the line with parts delivered yesterday for which the progress payments were spent the day before.

Double your burn rate number and I suspect you're still cnservative.
Gunner

not a pilot said...

I know there has been rampant speculation about the burn rate, but if we talk just about one month (November, perhaps) I think the following guesses / assumptions seem reasonable:
Receipts $8,250
COGS ($7,500)
Personnel / Salaries ($10,000)
Facilities ($2,000)
Debt Service ($1,313)
Monthly Cash Burn ($12,563)

Receipts - based on 11 deliveries in September & 60 day payment terms (50% balance outstanding)
COGS - material and details at 50% of sales for airplanes delivered in prior month - 10)
Salaries - 1,500 people, blended average salary of $80k
Facilities - this is a guess
Interest - 9% interest on $175k of debt?

I'm sure I'm underestimating a few of these items, but I struggle to get to a $30 million/month burn rate?

eclipso said...

the

WhyTech said...

The death of the turboprop ... NOT!

Just spoke with a broker who indicated that 2005/2006 PC-12s are currently selling for $300K - $500K ABOVE original purchase price, and that the TBM 850 market is very strong but not with these premiums.

WT

Black Tulip said...

"The death of the turboprop ... NOT!"

Whytech,

I spoke to a broker this week and heard the same story with other turboprops. He quotes Vref as saying turboprops have grown steadily in value over the last seventeen quarters.

However, it is the top-of-the-line machines that have benefited. For instance, your PC-12 and the Twin Commander 1000s as opposed to the 690s.

gadfly said...

not-a-pilot and Gunner

‘Pardon for the intrusion, but it seems that an internal memo that was “shared” over a year ago stated that the “burn rate” was about $30M per month at that time . . . and the free soft drinks and color copies were stopped. So, a “million-per-day” is probably close to reality. Salaries, although significant, rarely exceed half of the other expenses of any viable company. A more reasonable number for salaries of a “manufacturer” is 1/3. And our common subject has reminded us that they do not manufacture anything, . . . they only “assemble”. So, we seem to have some very major problems . . . but not to worry! Anyone who has an ounce of sense knew from the “get-go” that this was a pig in a poke, a “risk”, and could afford to lose a few hundred $K.

With all the other activities of Eclipse Aviation, I have trouble coming up with numbers “less” than $30M per month.

The folks that are at greatest risk are the workers, who normally do not take such risks. And those should be our major concern. These are the folks who “believed” the hype, not of a wonderful “toy”, but that they’ll have employment for a few years, to support their growing families. And here is where the responsibility goes through the various levels of management, and all the way to the governor of the state, who knew better from the start (but has his own agenda). And we should hold their feet to the fire . . . not that it would make any difference.

Most of us are just guessing . . . granted. But having been in business for over three decades, some things seem to indicate that this enterprise can in no way recover from their present condition. As a famous German pilot, Hermann “Something-or-Other” once said, “The Jig is Up!” (as the USAF and the RAF were bombing the stuffing out of Berlin) . . . and, of course, it was! . . . and in the present situation, “It is!”

It is all a very sick joke!

gadfly

(And I am not laughing!)

WhyTech said...

"However, it is the top-of-the-line machines that have benefited. For instance, your PC-12 and the Twin Commander 1000s as opposed to the 690s."

I would guess that this will continue as long as oil prices remain at or above $80/barrel, and exchange rates remain at current levels. Exchange rates alone are likely to make the dollar price of a new PC-12 jump sharply in the near future, pushing up prices on used acft as well.

WT

not a pilot said...

gadfly

I seem to have struck a nerve, eh?

I don't need to debate the numbers with you - my guess is the monthly burn rate is higher than $15 million, but less than $30 million.

For the sake of the employees and the entire supply chain, I hope they're able to raise the money they require and get through this period.

Personally, I like the idea of a newcomer in the industry questioning all of the assumptions about how things have been done. And the fact that there are so many "insiders" that want Eclipse to fail has me rooting for Eclipse even more.

In fact, I'm thinking of getting my pilots license just so I can fly one of these planes :)

Thanks for listening.

gadfly said...

not-a-pilot

No, you didn’t strike a nerve! I simply “used your comments” to launch some comments of my own . . . it’s simply a “tool” in English Rhetoric . . . and you just happened to be the nearest “tool at hand”. ‘Sorry about that!

However, you express a desire to become a pilot . . . and I applaud that. But do it for better reasons than flying this “un-proven” little jet. Do it for the shear pleasure of flying. Even the Word of God makes the comment: “he rides on the wings of the wind” (Psalm 104:4) To me, that brings up exciting visions . . . and relates to actual experiences.

If you are yet to experience the pleasure of flying as a pilot, I can only encourage you to “go for it”. There is little to compare with flying . . . whether in a Piper J3, a few hundred feet over plowed fields in the “Mid West”, or at 49,000 feet in a Lear Jet . . . (except maybe swimming in mid-ocean in the Pacific, diving down twenty feet or more under your own submarine . . . and coming up for air, to discover you were almost the afternoon “snack” for an eight-foot shark . . . and pass it off as a normal activity for the time). The “shark watch” on the bridge put a few rounds into the fine-finned-friend with an “M-1" . . . and we continued our “swim call” . . . but my first solo landing was much more traumatic. And, in both cases, I walked away . . . satisfied!

But, since I once worked for a company that was in many ways similar to “Eclipse”, I have a very real “empathy” for the employees, and their families.

Fret it not, neither sweat it . . . there will be much more discussion on these subjects in the months to come.

gadfly

(Root for Eclipse all you wish, . . . just don't forget the employees and their families. Fair 'nough?)

airtaximan said...

Personally, I like the idea of a newcomer in the industry questioning all of the assumptions about how things have been done. And the fact that there are so many "insiders" that want Eclipse to fail has me rooting for Eclipse even more.

Yup but experienced people questioning the assumptions about how things are being done is... considered "insiders" that want eclipse to fail

NOW THAT'S A HOOT!

Any critic insiders?
Insiders...hum.... I wonder what prompted THAT?

not a pilot said...

I meant industry insiders ... and thanks everyone for all of the enthusiasm! this blog is a great read!

gadfly said...

Taximan

It was probably prompted by a "knee jerk reaction" without carefully reading the text, and a hair-trigger response . . . without consideration of the target.

gadfly

(Let it go as a "non-event" . . . we all have those type of moments.)

Shane Price said...

Fred,

I'm good!

Other than having to do an 'in and out' to Chicago on Monday...

Not that I have anything against that fine example of modern living.

I just HATE 8 hours in a widebody.

OK, rant over.

What people miss on the burn rate is all the small stuff that adds up to being big stuff.

The PR department.

The Marketing department.

The Service department.

The Avio NG (finished on Tuesday) department.

The FIKI and all the other IOU stuff department.

Pretty soon, you have a big bill.

Now you need to pay suppliers. So, every E500 means P&W Canada are wanting something north of 1/4 million. Fuji (wings, useful things) are due about the same. Hampsons (tail feathers) various cockpit parts (take pick from list of random names) windscreens, tyres, paint, interiors etc etc.

At least another 1/4 mil.

That has GOT to be north of $750,000 EVERY TIME one leaves the factory. Say they hit a high of 20 every month, thats $15 mil.

Then, and ONLY then, you have to pay the staff. 1,500 at an average of $7,500 (all up) each, is north of $11 mil.

I make that more than $26,000,000 every single month, just shipping 20 birds.

And don't forget the PR department. And the Marketing, the Avio NG (Tuesday) etc etc.

In a funny sort of way, the less they ship, the less they lose.

That's the real revolution....

Shane

Shane Price said...

Sorry,

I forgot the most important department of them all.

The Great Raburn Ego Support Department.

A.K.A.

Eclipse Aviation

Must be at least another million a month on that stuff alone...

Shane

Gunner said...

Shane said:
"In a funny sort of way, the less they ship, the less they lose."

Give that man a cigar. I've said repeatedly that, sooner or later, all the guys that have hung on because they thought they were getting "such a deal" would trip to the fact that their positions are a liability to Eclipse. I just never said it BETTER than you.

Eclipse is not going to bootstrap the private jet ownership market by buying market share....that's obvious. So, if your production is limited, not by a Cessna-Like "conspiracy" but by lack of demand, loss leaders begin to look less like leaders and more like losses.

Vern's latest message is the latest in a coming series of notices to those position holders that they're not valued quite as much as they once were.

This was quickly followed by an attempt to round up all those embarrassingly cheap Controller sales offers into one quiet, confidential bin that might be properly shielded from public scrutiny. Who knows, if it'd worked, perhaps a "Secondary Market Member Fee" was in the offing? After all, the same ploy has worked before.
Gunner

Ringtail said...

Not a Pilot,

One thing you will find on this blog is five or six people who absolutely hate eclipse. They cite lame reasons for their hatred such as " Eclipse is to blame for ATC users fees" or " vern can't possibly manufacture that many planes per year because Cessna can't do it" But the bottom line is everyone of the critics is eat up with wanting Eclipse to fail because they have either already lost out in one way or another or stand a chance from losing out if Eclipse suceeds. Ditto for what they say about Dayjet as they would like to see Dayjet fail also.

A year from now after several hundred planes are delivered, these same 5-6 people will still be wishing Eclipse to fail...very sick IMO

Ringtail said...

Where's Alexa been? I would like to here more about the D-Jet. Anybody know how the tire problems are working out? what about the water ingestion and the cert schedule?

Gunner said...

Yep, the Critics can't possibly stand up to the steely eyed, independent and pragmatic dispassion of The Faithful.

The train has left the station.

Great comedy, that.
Gunner

Dave said...

But the bottom line is everyone of the critics is eat up with wanting Eclipse to fail because they have either already lost out in one way or another or stand a chance from losing out if Eclipse suceeds. Ditto for what they say about Dayjet as they would like to see Dayjet fail also.

A year from now after several hundred planes are delivered, these same 5-6 people will still be wishing Eclipse to fail...very sick IMO


That's it - it's a conspiracy! Everything is just fine and dandy at Eclipse and anyone who says otherwise has an alterior motive. Then again it was Vern himself who raised going concern issues - so I guess the CEO of Eclipse is very sick.

airtaximan said...

"A year from now after several hundred planes are delivered, these same 5-6 people will still be wishing Eclipse to fail...very sick IMO"

Of you look through the blog just before last Christmas (2006), there's probably a quote almost verbatim...

airtaximan said...

Ringer,

I think you can find Alexa at 866-436-9954, Monday through Friday 8:30AM-6:00PM Mountain Time..

If not him, similar attitude, reasoning, and disposition.... enjoy!

cj3driver said...

In case it wasn’t posted before, the Eclipse auction of S/N 82 ended with no further bidding (3) and with the final bid at $1,782,565.00. This bid was placed about the same time the Eclipse “blue light special” was announced on ANN. As predicted,no further bids were placed after that. It is doubtful that the final bidder even knew about the price reduction. Certainly the first two bidders were most likely in the dark with respect to the announcement. Neither of those bidders made advances.

S/N 82 sold for $62,240 LESS than the previous auction S/N 38, despite the fact it had a substantially HIGHER list price, and is fitted with the Aeromod improvements.

Even with Bidders club members having as much as $90,000 credit, IMO there is a HIGH probability the winning bidder will forego the $5,000.00 bidder fee and decline to purchase to aircraft.

Sad.

Metal Guy said...

Ringtail said:
But the bottom line is everyone of the critics is eat up with wanting Eclipse to fail because they have either already lost out in one way or another or stand a chance from losing out if Eclipse suceeds.

Eclipse is a very hostile company with a very hostile environment. It’s blind, stupid arrogance trickling down from the top.

So Ringtail, don’t be surprised if some of it is just for pure revenge sake.

Vern has to sleep in the bed he has created and if he pisses a lot of people off, don’t be surprised when a lot of people piss back.

Dave said...

Even with Bidders club members having as much as $90,000 credit, IMO there is a HIGH probability the winning bidder will forego the $5,000.00 bidder fee and decline to purchase to aircraft.

The Bidder's Club is no more. It wasn't part of the auction. Just one of the many broken promises made by Eclipse.

cj3driver said...

Dave said;

“… The Bidder's Club is no more. It wasn't part of the auction. Just one of the many broken promises made by Eclipse…”

Dave,

Are you sure? It was still listed in the FAQ section of the bidders instructions.

Redtail said...

cj3driver said... In case it wasn’t posted before, the Eclipse auction of S/N 82 ended with no further bidding (3) and with the final bid at $1,782,565.00. This bid was placed about the same time the Eclipse “blue light special” was announced on ANN.

Not that it really matters, but there were four bids and the final bid was cast this evening before the close of the auction. But, your story sounds better for a Critics blog, even if it's not truthful or factual.

Redtail said...

Dave said... The Bidder's Club is no more. It wasn't part of the auction. Just one of the many broken promises made by Eclipse.

More "facts" from the critics for the tabloid.

flightguy said...

More facts for attorneys to rifle through from the last 2 years leading to now.

cj3driver said...

Redtail said;

"...Not that it really matters, but there were four bids and the final bid was cast this evening before the close of the auction..."

RT,

I'm not saying your wrong, but if you go to the auction website, and click thru to "bid history" only 3 bids show. However, the math as you say makes sense. If the first bid is $1,752 and the final bid is $1,782, it appears four bids were made. I guess we will find out in a few days. If so, ISC.

I still suspect the transaction does not take place. We will see. I was shocked when the last one sold for MORE than the open market. Some people just like the competition of an auction.

paul said...

Yes, where is Alexa with his/her attempts to derail the discussion with irrelevemt comments about D-jet on a blog about eclipse.
BTW I'm now working on a project that is constructing major assemblys for Boeing. What a difference from my experience at eclipse! I don't need my 10 lb hammer to get parts to fit together!

Dave said...

Dave said... The Bidder's Club is no more. It wasn't part of the auction. Just one of the many broken promises made by Eclipse.

More "facts" from the critics for the tabloid.


You think Vern belongs in the tabloids for ending the Bidder's Club?

Ringtail said...

why not talk about the D-Jet...for months all we heard about was the CJ series and the TBMs. Now the critics are all spun up on the finances. Next month we will be talking about CJs and TBMs again.

gadfly said...

Regardless, some of us will remain focused on Eclipse, failed promises, and a company headed (like an out-of-control submarine) towards “crush depth”.

gadfly

(For what it’s worth, the “not-so-little-jet” has already failed. It’s just a matter of time before the company that “assembled” it follows the same course . . . only worse.)

Dave said...

why not talk about the D-Jet...for months all we heard about was the CJ series and the TBMs. Now the critics are all spun up on the finances. Next month we will be talking about CJs and TBMs again.

I see. You feel Eclipse's actions belong in the tabloids, so this website should only talk about serious aircraft businesses.

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
cj3driver said...

Ringtail said;

"...One thing you will find on this blog is five or six people who absolutely hate eclipse..."

There are over 40 different posters on this tread alone. Even if what you say is true, five or six is a very small percentage.

I for one do not hate Eclipse or DayJet.

The name of the blog is, however, Eclipse Aviation Critic. The rose coloured background can be found at www.eclipse500club.org

fred said...

yea shane , i know your meanning about "modern way" of life ...

sometime i take plane go thru 2/3 of the european land and come back to check-in with the same immigration officer still on the same day duty (i love to see theirs face at this precise second when they seems to recognize me...;-)) )... me too i just hate the time you spend strapped to a seat with some foods (sometimes good) to help you to keep it quiet ...!

You made a very important point in your comment :

the burn rate for making thing is not such an important matter as the one spent for "blowing" things...

something related with ego ??!!

but it started right from the beginning ... when peoples boarded the "train" they thought this very train was going to change the industry to a ,yet unseen , new standart !

so the natural question is to ask : who is to be blamed ?
the ones saying an "horribilis" amount of sweet little lies ...
or the ones that kept on wanting to believe at all costs ?

so yes may be the product could be saved , but then again EAc is not a producer , it only assemble ...

if the same structure is to remain , then i'm afraid peoples would have put theirs dosh into the pot are lost ...

but if the "community of depositors" is willing enough and talented enough , why not ask directly the furnishers themselves ..??
on such a track , finances won't be a problem (there is quite a few ways to raise the kind of money they need ... and furnishers can be approched the way "you invested (waisted) that much money into EAc , now is an offer not to loose all and to get a "peacefull" bizz relation "

not sure all would decline ...

as for the copyright : no problem = they already own EAc trhu their deposit ..

it would be a "palace revolution" not sure it wouldn't work ...! i am sure peoples whom deposited are (or have been)successful enough to be able to raise that gamble ...

anyway , to do better that it is nnow does not sounds very difficult ... ;-))

Tufftoys said...

I'm concerned! Eclipse wants to build these aircraft faster than a speeding bullet, yet they keep hiring people off the streets! I know that the state pays Eclipse $$$ for everyone they employ (even the contractors). I wouldnt mind the "newbies" so much, but they are making it difficult to build these planes when "we" the contractors are having to fix their mistakes ... over and over and over again, the same ones. Now I know for fact there are alot of contractors that are here making alot of money, that are here just for the money. And Eclipse just lets them walk around talking on their cell phones stealing money from not just the employer but more important the employees that have been told (lies) over and over they will be getting raises. What pisses me off is when a newbie stops production because of the lies and his or her's excuse is "they dont pay me enough" or "just look at the contractor talking on his or her cell". Eclipse does infact have to have contractors period. The problem I see is that Eclipse needs to FIRE the ones that dont do anything or the ones that continually write NCRs for stupid mistakes. Sure everyone that works on aircrafts make mistakes but come on guys and girls. I know this is a new automotive, I mean, aircraft business so Eclipse might not know about this, so here it is, its called TRACKING. Eclipse you need us I know. What you dont NEED is some more Boeing mechanics, I dont know if you are know this or not; Boeing aircraft have really really thick skins ... do do dooo! Ya need helicopter mechanics that are used to working on light skins. Every NCR generated is how much money out of the employees pockets? Let me get this straight, now you want me to teach the newbies? Yea thats gonna work. Make your own people happy and they will return the favor.
FIX the jigs, thats how you make your money. If you have two right hand skin jigs that dont match guess what your not making the same skin!
Take those huck clinches out of the build up, the tail is going to fall off!
Stop hiring automotive and/or Intel people, THEY dont know how to lead or build an aircraft. ITS a cycle let me show you:
Newbies---no clue
Contractors (boeing)--- no clue
together generate lots of NCRs
NCRs goes to engineering
Engineering --- have a clue but cant find it
Man hours to be done with the NCR ????
Moneys from the NCR that is wasted on and takin from the employees????
The painter that ground off the hilock heads, what did you make him? Painter of the year or shop forman?
Tufftoys