Friday, January 18, 2008

from across the pond

fred, our fellow blogger from Germany weighed in this morning on the ETIRC involvement with Eclipse:

i decided to call my friend in EASA to ask about cert for E500 and possibilities of having a simulator based on a plane non cert. , non finished , non funded , etc...


the answer came very straight (sorry for using such words but i want to put it the way it was said ...)

"When will you fuck-off with your joke about that piece of shit ?"

which i took for : NO , no way !;-)

apart this , some news from the russian front ...:

the city where Etirc is supposed to buid ( assemble or pretend to assemble or may assemble ) a plant for E500 production is :

Ulyanovsk or Улья́новск

which is a wonderfull thing for the simple reason i have a good pal working in the city duma (city council)

after being asked about a new firm develloped , in this city , mainly dealing with General Aviation ...

the answer came as :

"Ulyanovsk would be a strange choice ...! not very practical as an other town Воро́неж or Voronezhis actually a town where producing aircraft has a long history AND is under-going some restructuration !

in our town (Ulyanovsk ) there is a fund dealing with small and medium buisness which has priority status with federal budget ...

but a 1B US$ or a 100 M US$ bizz in the town wouldn't been considered as small or even medium bizz , it would be so huge , the city itself may want NOT to host it !

at the time being , from the city duma records , there is not a single evidence of either a russian or foreign entity undergoing such actions as paperworks , licence , land plot buying , etc , such a project would be likely to take ...!

and nowhere it has been announced such a deal was on his tracks anywhere else than in the mind or ideas of its conceptors ...!

"well i think that say enough ... in itself ...

but it would have been funny to see an American plant close to the Lenine's birth house .... ! :-))

fred also submitted a European's view of the U.S. economy with statements we are not going to hear from Bernanke, the Administration or our limp dick press. For a reality check, read fred's 2:12 am comment against the last post.

276 comments:

1 – 200 of 276   Newer›   Newest»
fred said...

wow ...

thanks stan , i wasn't expecting such an honor ....!

but what i wrote is not going to be heard in USA ...

one of the most important drive of an economy is the confidence peoples have in it ...!

never thought about the why of so much lies and under-statements ?

as for Bernanke , you should make him a statut in a park...

probably one of the last "American Dream Hero"

or the proof USA is such a wonderfull place , even a complete schmuck can become someone ...! ;-))

not a pilot said...

Metal_Guy (& others)

It is bad to make assumptions and generalizations about things you clearly have not researched...

the truth about fundraising for Eclipse (information available on DowJones Venturesource and from the company's Form D, submitted to the SEC in July 2007):

From March 2000 through July 2006, Eclipse raised about $355 million of Equity & $225 million of convertible debt.

In July 2007, Eclipse raised $273 (which looks to be convertible debt), of which $12 million paid fees to bankers,$50 million paid off some debt and $210 million was remaining for working capital (many allege most was used to get current with suppliers).

The previous allegations that the company has raised $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion are simply wrong.

So it appears that to date (before the latest arrangement with ETIRC, that is), Eclipse has raised about $350 million of "pure" equity and has about $435 million of convertible debt.

The latest press release only says that Roel is the largest shareholder - certainly this begins to make sense if there is about $350 million of equity in the company right now, which is spread among many early investors.

That being said, the equity is only worth anything if the proceeds at sale/IPO are sufficient to pay off all of the convertible debt, with whatever interest rate is attached to it (which may be purely accrued interest) ...

I hope this helps ... I am suspect of the "new deal" also, but I like to keep my emotions in check my sometimes referring back to the facts

Gunner said...

NoP-
I guess a couple hundred million taken in Deposits, Progress Payments and Fire Sales should not be counted as company obligations?

It's the New Math.
Gunner

not a pilot said...

I was merely responding to the comments and speculation about how much equity was raised and the alleged dilution to equity holders.

This is a different topic than how much cash they've received and burned through (which I don't believe anyone outside of Eclipse knows the exact details of)

no new math ... just a part of the calculation

NoP

Gunner said...

NaP-
Wasn't taking exception to your comments per se. Just pointing out that the investment is MUCH larger than the items you ticked off. Debt is not free, simply because it appears in a section other than Owners Equity. Same with payables.

Now, if you were to take exception to those who have claimed ETIRC bought "controlling interest", I'd agree completely. Nowhere has that been stated or written.

He did, however, receive the Board Chairmanship. That just can't be a good sign.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

yeah...

that's why I always say "they've blown $1.x billion"

PS. I think the company was started in 1998... but they probably only blew $50-$100 during the first 2-3 years ;)

fred said...

gunner

yeap .. not a good sign ...

vern has just been proposed an buissness offer , he couldn't refuse ...!

who was talking about mafia ?? :-)))

fred said...

shane , yes the guy in EASA could be Irish ... never asked , who cares anyway ...!

but thanks for your words ..

yes , i believe the economic situation in USA is directly with something called "laspalles théorics"

the way to calculate inflation , which merely say :
the more you play with it , the less your margin of amnoeuvers are !

i think thoses margins dispared in 2000 , with the burst of internet-madness ...

it should have had been a good and salvatory medium recession for a short time ...

all the "bad blood" would have been expurgate ...

but bushy-bushy and greenspan couldn't afford to loose any personnal glow , and finally decided to do anything to prevent that ...

result : the mess of today !

yes ! EAC is among the "bad blood" instead of blowing-up a billion something , the credit would have been cut earlier , the billion would have been only a few hundreds and some wouldn't be crying on theirs deposits ....

i have just seen the speech of GWB , that guy is the most powerfull guy on earth ?? god bless america ! ;-))

it's still the same recipe , rich peoples are going to pay less , so the federal budget is going to get less income , making more deficits , spread into the middle-class thru inflation ...!!

just too hilarious ...!

i think i'm going to open a buissness selling lubricant ...

i know a country where lots are going to need it very soon !! ;-)

Gunner said...

Sometimes it seems to me that the only difference between Americans and residents of other nations is:

Americans don't much care how other countries run their internal tax or economic affairs.

Go figure.
Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

I was thinking the same thing Gunner, not just here but other web communities I participate in that have international members.

Sometimes the insight presented is interesting, but I'm not gonna rib Brit's about their nationalized health care or criticize the French for their anti-business tax issues that have driven a large number of companies to neighboring countries.

Back to the matter at hand, the preemie-Jet and the Amazing sVerngali - How does his claim about the 'feat' of first -time certification of the simulator stack up against reality?

Anyone name a Level D sim that did not get certified on the first attempt? While at it, name a company that made such a big deal about a certified sim in an uncertified training center with an uncertified syllabus.

What does the reported EASA-insider comment mean in context with sVerngali's claim of a 2nd quarter EASA cert (and FIKI too)?

Black Dog said...

Gunner said...
Sometimes it seems to me that the only difference between Americans and residents of other nations is:

Americans don't much care how other countries run their internal tax or economic affairs.

Go figure.
Gunner

Not going to argue with that point of view other than to say that when one of the worlds biggest money turn over machines starts to cough we all catch a cold hence our interest and worries.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Like Black dog said, the reason we care so much about US internal politics and economic policy is because it has a greater influence on our lives and well being than the decisions of the bums we get to vote for :)

Gunner said...

FJT-
Then perhaps it'd be less unseemly if certain of our fellows here would occasionally preface the US swipes with something like:

"Not that [fill in the blank] is any better or worse at it than you guys, but..."

Then, at least one gets viewed as simply unhappy, rather than smarmy and envious.

Just my opinion.
Now, back on track, I hope.
Gunner

fred said...

gunner ...

you're right ...!

may be that's exactly the problem ?
americans should feel themselves as part of a bigger thing called "Global Eco." ...

that remind me of a russian collegue saying about USA = " don't worry about them , they just happen not living on the same planet ..."

as for me , well it's a job and a way to make a lot of money , it's allways in thoses shaky situation , anyone can make the most ...

how do you think i could buy a jet without too much worries ?

as for others , yes as stated correctly by precedent post by Black-dog and FreedomJam ...

when the US fed flood the whole world with printed image of Grant , it is not only a concern for US citizens ...!

Gunner said...

Case in point. It's the US's fault because the rest of the industrialized world depends on the health of OUR dollar.

Like I said...go figure.
Gunner

fred said...

no Gunner ...!

it's started when Nixon cut the link between gold and US$ (bretton woods)

because vietnam war was too expensive to maintain such a deal ...

it's either everybody's fault or nobody's fault ...!

just an accumulation of bad managment , bad practises , bad decisions , bad habits ....

combined with a political-wording pushing peoples to believe risk doesn't exist ...

it's sad , but that's the way it is !

nothing really under the sun = humanity hasn't change that much

it is still a good "grand-parents build a fortune , parents try to keep it , sons just burn it "

when it comes to pay the bill , everybody seems to be surprised ...

Gunner said...

Yep. Nixon's fault.

Back on track now.
Gunner

Ringtail said...

Gunner - I agree with your last three posts.

fred said...

that's the reason why Gold should become (again) the international currency ...

just because it's quite difficult to print Gold ...

so politician wouldn't have to say sweet lies and listeners wouldn't have to fake beliving ..

Gunner said...

Nice try, Red.

Unfortunately for you, we're far more interested in discussing the Train Wreck in ABQ than international monetary policy. We may digress a bit here or there, but I can promise the conversation always comes back on target.

After all, Eclipse insists on providing such a target rich environment. ;-)
Gunner

Ringtail said...

Gunner (aka model 94)

Although I am a supporter of the Eclipse program, I am not Red or Redtail. My handle is Ringtail and I will likely change it to avoid confusion. As for the ABQ situation, I am not convinced the situation is as bad as some of you think.

BTW - I have a couple of nice savage model 99s too - they too were a gooood gun.

RT

fred said...

gunner

yes , once you're right ...!

but the 2 topics are more linked you seems to believe ...

why do you think they said about russian town and plan = far away , difficult to check , difficult to understand ...

at the same time , if EAC had such tremendous problems when Eco. was blooming .. wath's gonna happen if things starts looking gloomy ?

Gunner said...

Sorry Ring-
The names really ARE confusing.
Gunner

Metal Guy said...

not a pilot said: The previous allegations that the company has raised $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion are simply wrong.

Like I said, tweak the numbers however you want, perhaps it’s only $600Milllion in, plus all of the deposits. However you slice it, the value of the company is less than that of the invested in cash. That’s pretty clear when a $150M investment buys a controlling share.

It’s certainly not at the 10X in five year ROI formula that I’m sure the investors were hoping for. They would have done much better with a Bank of America checking account.

My point is from an investment point of view, this company is a failure.

Niner Zulu said...

I was just looking at the Mustang listings on Controller.com.

All of the Mustang sellers are still asking for huge premiums. Some of them have been sitting there quite awhile, unsold.

My guess is, they'll continue to sit unsold until either the premiums come down quite a bit, or disappear altogether.

Maybe these guys don't watch th news. The markets are tanking, dragging everything down with them. The Fed is floundering and doesn't know what to do. For the first time in years, I see a lot of people losing their jobs & companies nearby going out of business or BK.

Prices on piston engine planes have already dropped 10-15% accordng to a recent article I read somewhere. The jet market isn't immune from the decline, and prices have likely already dropped and the only ones that don't know it yet are the sellers because their jets haven't moved. Probably a bit of a Mexican standoff yet, but sellers are likely to cave first.

Anyway, the point here as I have said before is: there is absolutely NO reason to pre-order an Eclipse or any other jet right now, nor is there ANY reason to pay a premium unless you really gotta have it right now. There is going to be a fire sale on boats, airplanes, McMansions and other high-ticket items so hold on to your cash. Prices are going to drop and it's going to look just like it did in 1992-97 when manufacturers were giving away free fuel and discounting their aircraft to secure buyers.

JMHO

not a pilot said...

Metal_Guy,

If you are simply looking for a place to vent, I'm sorry for getting in the way.

If you are intending to engage in a discussion, I'm happy to continue ... but you are completely missing the point - ETIRC did not buy a controlling share. The are now the largest single shareholder, and they do have the chairmanship, but that does not constitute a controlling share.

As for "tweaking the numbers" - if "not making them up" is tweaking them, then I am guilty.

But to your point, in addition to the investments that were outlined, Eclipse certainly has accepted a significant amount of deposits (let me know if you know definitively how much), which will dramatically reduce cash flow going forward, which will impact their valuation.

As for the value of their investment - nothing matters until they sell/exit (or go bankrupt)... alot can happen between now and then.

Gunner said...

"As for the value of their investment - nothing matters until they sell/exit"

I beg to differ, NaP. I think it mattered a very, very great deal to ETIRC AND to the current investors. No matter how you cut it, ETIRC locked up most of the E-500 market for the civilized world AND picked of the Chairmanship position of the company for what looks to be a small investment, as compared to all those that have come before.

That is NOT the bell-weather of a growing, vibrant company that is building value. Rather, it reeks of bottom-feeder financing and desperation.

Like everything else Eclipse we're pointed to the things we "don't know" while simultaneously regaled with the potential of some minor point in the announcement. (Not from you.)

Meantime, the fundamentals of the alliance are all wrong for a healthy aircraft manufacturer; starting with the absence of any bona-fide representative of traditional investment markets in the deal; moving thru to the choice of strategic partners; and ending with the fact that the value of this company to existing and successful aircraft manufacturers has just been effectively destroyed.

I guess Eclipse has "outgrown" its relationship with UBS? Perhaps Vern is doing for the financial markets what he's already done for modern aviation? Betcha Honda and Cessna wish they'd have thought of this "financing strategy" first.

C'mon. At a certain point we ALL need to start sniffing the coffee...especially when it's 10 years old and burning badly.
Gunner

baron95 said...

Metal guy said... However you slice it, the value of the company is less than that of the invested in cash. That’s pretty clear when a $150M investment buys a controlling share.


The value of a public company is established by the open equity market (stock price). The value of a private company like Eclipse is established by the private equity market.

If you accept that ETIRC invested $150M as you stated, and if you accept that it is true that they do NOT have majority ownership, than $150M bought less than 50% of Eclipse. So the private equity market has determined that Eclipse has a post money valuation of at least $300M.

If you accept Not a Pilot's well researched and well reasoned figures that there are approximately $450M of equity and converted debt into Eclipse pre-ETIRC investment and Vern's statement that ETIRC investment was on the same terms as previous investors, than ETIRC probably has closer to 25% of Eclipse than 50%, which places the post moeny valuation of Eclipse at $600M.

So, if you believe in the captalist system, and valuations after the last investor (after due dilligence), which is the ONLY way to value private companies, than Eclipse clearly has value.

Using your own figures that value is at least $300M. Using a cmbination of your figures and Not a Pilot's that value is closer to $600M.

That is substantial value. Why do you, gunner, etc insist in saying that Eclipse has no value?

How are you making that calculation? Do you mind sharing your reasoning?

You may be right, I'd like to see the data you are basing your assertion on. At least one savy financial investor, with access to all of Eclipse's data during due dilligence has placed the Eclipse value as north of $300M and perhaps closer to $600M based on the information available to outsiders.

It is very correct to state that Eclipse wasted money, executed poorly, is consistently late on all commitments, their CEO is an embarassment to the industry, etc...

But it does not appear to be correct that the present value of the company is ZERO.

Metal Guy said...

As for the value of their investment - nothing matters until they sell/exit (or go bankrupt)... alot can happen between now and then.

Ultimately this is of course true – they have not “cashed out” yet. However, stock price is set based on valuation of the company and valuation of the company is set on the “open market” value of their stock. At this point in their life-cycle, this is only determined during closed investment rounds, where a real-world valuation is negotiated.

This should be the peak of their value point – the 10 year mark - they have finally completed and certified the fully functional aircraft, successfully ramped up to expected production rates, orders have steadily climbed, the air taxi market is looking fantastic and DayJet will order even more and expand operations sooner than expected, the European market has opened up with thousands of orders, the dream of on demand air-taxi was indeed a bottle of pent-up-demand waiting to explode into the promised multi-billion dollar market. The $(pick any number you want) invested has resulted in a $6 - $10 Billion dollar company. The Silicon Valley rainbow which Eclipse was modeled after from day one.

However, one has to assume that ETRIC was able to obtain full disclosure on the “real story” – actual number of sales, deposits obtained, parts on hand, accounts receivable, payable, deals on the books, deals being worked, demand analysis, DayJet numbers, the whole nine yards. What they valued the company at after crunching the numbers appears to be nominally below estimated cash invested (cash in, deposits, etc..), never mind anywhere close to the valuation that Vern has blown up his investors private areas.

It’s hard to imagine that a “sell/exit” event will come up with a substantially different number in the foreseeable future, unless something very very dramatic occurs. ETRIC appears to be gambling on the same air-taxi scheme that is failing in the U.S., so I don’t think that constitutes a dramatic increase in value. (They probably just wanted the technology, which is a pretty good deal at $1xx M.)

You are probably right that ETIRC did not obtain a controlling share – they are now the largest shareholder, chair the board, and oh yeah, control the cash and are therefore king by default. “Controlling share” is a business term that I did not mean to imply directly.

As for "tweaking the numbers" - if "not making them up" is tweaking them, then I am guilty.

I believe it’s pretty much given at this point that everyone has to “make them up” as the company has zero transparency. One can only go on common sense, which as pointed out previously, has been tremendously more accurate than Eclipses view of the world. The estimates on this blog have been substantially more accurate than Eclipses predictions time-after-time. So I think this is perfectly fair game and fairly accurate in the grand scheme of things.

(Baron 95),
I certainly did not mean to imply they have zero value – that does not make any sense. However, the investors wanted a $6 to $10 Billion dollar company at this point and Vern gave them something like a $300M to $600M dollar company for their hard earned $300M to $600M dollars invested.

This is of zero value to the investors.

planet-ex said...

Back to the simulators (I was in Little Rock training all week so didn't see the post):

Eclipse signed a contract with Opinicus in April 2005 for the simulators. That's almost three years from start to certification. That's a long time for a simulator build - typically, it's 18 months to 2 years.

As for crew through-put you could push maybe three or four crews through a sim each day (16 hour day with 8 hour maintenance downtime). Also, no crew wants to spend more than three or four hours stuck in a simulator. Plus you have to consider the prep time before each sim session.

Level C and D simulators need continuous maintenance to maintain certification.

Gunner said...

Baron-
You're trying to do a quantitative analysis from numbers that start with fantasy. If you believe that the total investment in Eclipse today is around $450 Million, I've got a piece of Real Estate in the Sonoran Desert that you've just got to see.

By ALL reports, undisputed by even The Faithful, Eclipse has blown well, well, well over One Billion U$. Now unless you believe someone is carrying $800+ Million in payables and debt financing, something just doesn't add up. And if you DO believe they obtained over $800 Million in debt and vendor credit, further conversation is fruitless. Show me one company since the DotCom era that has raised that kind of debt on negative income, negative cash flow and no end in sight.

Still, your analysis is incomplete unless we examine the QUALITATIVE side also. Look at the "investors" in this latest round: The Russian Government and DayJet-Vladivostik. Think they were Vern's first choice?

Look at what was given away for less money than the July 2007 $200 Mill private raise: The entire production, sales and after-markets of Eastern and Western Europe, PLUS the Chairmanship of the company. Does it appear to you that Vern took his pick of a half dozen bona fide offers? Does it look like the markets are salivating over the "record production" of half finished jets or does it look like they're about as unimpressed as we Critics?

Look at poison pill Eclipse has swallowed against any future sale to EADS, Toyota or some other REAL company. Think the previous BoD, representing investors mostly, were jumping for joy over the increased odds for successful cashout in the wake of these terms?

It's understandable that, absent perfect information, we (as you) will try to piece together the ramifications. Anyone, and I mean anyone, who could come away from that Press Conference with "Good News For Eclipse" on their lips simply does not understand the private equity markets.

This is a marriage of desperation. The bride showed up with a paltry dowry and now wears the pants in the family. It's just that simple.

There is good news, however. Eclipse has just picked up about four more months of financial life...possibly less, depending how the Russians have tied the purse strings. And they generally tie 'em pretty darned close.
Gunner

Shane Price said...

Fred, Niner Zulu, Gunner et al.

From where I'm standing, there is a strong link between economics and Eclipski.

Mr. Raburn NEEDs lots and lots (750 per annumn, Verns' own number) of people to have a big chunk of spare cash lying around to support the company.

In a tighter climate, money is scarce.

Simple, really.

Yes, Eclipski is a private company. It is entiled to keep its affairs to itself.

BUT...

When Vern insists on blathering on about how wonderful he is and how crap the established players are, he has to expect some blowback.

And then he gets into bed with the Russians, who have made history by keeping secrets.

Is it any wonder that people like me raise an eyebrow and ask questions about the basic stuff, like where has all the money gone and who benefits?

Shane

fred said...

Gunner ...

you made a very good point !

this marriage is out of desperation ! nobody can doubt it !

i think (personnal opinion) that what most are going to find out soon is :

in one corner of the ring , there is Vern and all history of under-statments and over-promising ...

on the other side of the ring , there is Etirc , with all its unknown and its brilliant boss whom lots of bizz peoples have some kind of sorrows to have met ...

IF one is not saying the truth on his firm and the other one not the truth on his financial possibilities .... well ...!

in other word : if a one eyed guy marry a one eyed girl , if there are clever enough they can walk the streets this theirs working eyes on the outside ...

but the area in front of them they won't see remain quite big ...!

it's all speculation , only time will tell ...

but i wouldn't bet (or risk) a cent on such a pair ....

Black Tulip said...

It is still early in the investigation, but I hear British Airways may retrofit their Boeing 777s with Avio NG. They’re attracted to a bullet-proof and future-proof design.

airtaximan said...

Something dawned onme regarding the latest financing scheme, and this discussion about valuation.

It does not matter that they received an "investment" from e-trick for some amount, and some deal.

It wouldn't matter if they received some investment from Royal Bank of Scotland for some amount and some deal.

.. or Al Mann, or Bill Gates...

They have built a machine that makes unfinished products, that are selling for less than they cost, mostly into a new market that is no panning out.

So they converted a huge amount of capital into a machine that produces something of less value than they need to charge to make money.

Many people have been fooled into some valuation calculation on this before... and probably just recently. Even if it was a great aviation company or experience financing group, they would have to make something out of the mess.

Pieper probably thinks he can do this by developing another market that does not yet really exist - one that for all intents an purposes HAD the possibility already to show up - his white label taxi scheme over there.

In any case, right now, I would agree, the company is worth zero.

bill e. goat said...

More fun with numbers...
Figure:
1) For the first 7 years, if Eclipse averaged around 300 employees
2) For the last 3 years, if Eclipse averaged around 1500 employees
3) If the average cost per employee has been $60K
Then:
(7*300)x60K + (3*1500)x60K = $396M

This is rough, I don't know the mix of salaried to hourly, what percentage overtime, etc, or the exact headcounts, or executive compensation.

But, let's say cumulative payroll has been 300-500 $M.

Figure development and infrastructure costs would double to triple that number,
low end, (2 x 300M) = 600 $M
high end (3 x 500M) = 1.5 $B

These are my rough numbers. Others here with experience running manufacturing and R&D companies might enlighten us considerably, but I'd say the Eclipse hole is $1.2B deep or so by now (and shoveling- I mean- and counting :).
---------------------------------
"What's it worth"? Well, depends on how much you want to pay, which depends on:
1) *How much money it will bring in
2) How much "other stuff" it will bring in. Principally, the "other stuff" is technology infusion and market penetration.

*IMHO, I believe Eclipse is maintaining an inflated order book, and I believe it is doing so to inflate future revenue forecasts. I suspect the emphasis on "volume production" is expressly intended to substantiate this impression, even if it means burning through "real" backlog in 18 months. Create the illusion, and hope somebody buys the vision, and the company, before the bubble bursts (real backlog is burned off).

airtaximan said...

all that needs to happen is Ed comes clean, states he will not really be taking all those planes (which he has basically already admitted) and its over.

someone at dayjet explained that they have 229 orders plus 70 options for the first few years deliveries... and the rest, they cannot say when or if they will take them.

I guess this leaves room for hope?

fred said...

airtaxi ...

yes pieper's plan is to devellop a new market ...(russia)

but thereis 2 holes in the road of success = distances : in a country spread on 11 times zones ; i really doubt E500 id going to interest anyone ... range is much too short ...when you know that for most russians 2000 KMs is still quite close ...!!

infrastructure : lack of facilities ...apart a few airports , they were build mainly in the 60's...

airtaximan said...

fred:

what new is being brought to the table now, so that the Russian air taxi or VLJ market can flourish?

E-trick was around before, "Developing" this market... and so was Vern and Eclipse (since 1998).

So, I would ask... what are they now doing differently, that will magically make a larger market there?

My opinion is, this would be like someone buying the Canadian market rights, or Mid East rights, for that matter, and claiming that their participation would make the market grow beyond all the hype and marketing that's already been expended in those areas.

So I ask, what is new that will make a difference and grow the markets E-trick has?

fred said...

aiirtaxi...


in my humble opinion :

just nothing !

the 2 facts i was stating are things which are totally out of reach for EAC ...

i don't see how they would reduce distances in Russia (more than 11.000 KMs long ) with the range of E500 you cannot even make a Moskva/Paris without stopping to fill the tank and it take you at least 70 Minutes more on a 3 Hours flight with any regular commercial ...

i don't see how they could devellop infrastructures

i don't see how they could sell enough E500 to make some profits (remember : volume is key word) in a country where the middle class is only emerging , the poor class do not travel at all , and the rich are already very well served ...

at the same time , rich russian (taking into consideration to own you have to be ) are most of time a bit extravageant , so such a small plane would be considered as a toy !

the 2 positive point :

labor costs much lower , but to have competent ,trained peoples in russia is quite pricey ....

Jet A : with a much lower price than anywhere in the western world !

fred said...

i forgot :

i see the expansion in russia as a kind of "compagnie des indes " of the modern times ....

under King louis the 15th , in france a firm was develloped to build a wonderland in Louisiana (hence the name of it)

french were pushed to give gold against paper of ownership of the fabulous land over the sea ...

every one was convince diamonds , gold , and richness was laying in ground and had just to be picked-up ...

when peoples discovered the truth , a few guys had to leave the country in a hurry to save theirs lifes...

JetProp Jockey said...

Anyone else notice that the announement is 6 days old and there is virtually no comments from the faithful supporters of Eclipse.

Any word as to what is happening among the depositors?

airtaximan said...

how is the eclipse aftermarket grab back going?

still 51 listings on Controller...

Gunner said...

Wow! Has anyone caught the Jan issue of Twin&Turbine? They dedicated the cover, the Editor's Column and an eleven page feature to Epic, in general, and their experimental Victory Jet, in particular. I was pretty damned impressed, both with the results and the no-holds barred reporting style of Ken Ibold.

In no specific order, and with no personal comment, here's some excerpts:

"So, would I fly 300 knots in something I built myself? With this kind of support n place, you bet I would."

"The simple systems and low close-to-the-ground speeds of the Victory make the jet almost as easy to fly as any high-performance single."

"Epic recently partnered with Indian billionaire Vijay Mallya who invested $200 Million in the company for a non-controlling share. Epic believes the cash infusion will be enough to fund the Dynasty certification effort."

"Up front, access to the cockpit between the two pilot seats is something of a tight fit, especially given the low ceiling height. Once in place, however, the seating position and visibility are excellent. Control is through a standard yoke - none of that sidestick silliness, thank you."


[OK, I'll make one comment. I happen to like the look and the ergonomics of a side stick. I have, however, never flown one. I assume Ibold has for him to feel that strongly. Can anyone comment?]

"On the ground, the Victory does show a few warts. In true jet fashion, it takes quite a bit of throttle before the FJ-33 responds enough to taxi the airplane- an issue made even more pronounced by the prototypes use of differential braking for steering on the ground. (The production version will have a steerable nose wheel.)"

"The Williams engine will likely be traded for a Pratt & Whitney Canada PW615 and PW617 series engine"


On Slow Flight:
"The airplane was quite happy flying there, but as I cleaned up to recover airspeed, I discovered the Victory's first (and so far only) bad habit in the air.

At moderate power settings and relatively low speed, the Victory showed a pronounced Dutch roll. With feet on the floor, I cranked the yoke hard left and then neutralized it. The airplane wallowed back and forth between medium left bank and medium right bank. I made no effort to damp the oscillation, and it continued through six cycles, showing little inclination to moderate on its own, but it was easily reined in with rudder and aileron. Because Epic is redesigning the tail section to accommodate the Pratt engine, the company will add small 'Learjet-style' ventral strakes to increase stability."

"With the exception of the low speed wallow, the handling qualities of the Victory jet were well harmonized and struck a reasonable balance between IFR stable and sport-plane responsive."

"The advanced FADEC engine makes it easier to operate than some of the sophisticated pressurized singles and virtually any pressurized twin."

"Real world data is hard to come by so far, but there are indications that air traffic control will, in some regions, tend to fly the small jets low, mixed in with the turboprops in the mid-20's rather than with the airliners 10,000 feet higher.
[snip]
For that reason, it seems single engine jets that follow the flight profile strategy adopted by Epic, Diamond and Cirrus may have some practical real-world benefit. Epic's Victory is a powerful argument in favor of single-engine jets. The aircraft's projected 1,200 nm range, 900-pound full-fuel payload, and 320-knot max cruise speed ensure the jet will meet the utility needs of owners."

Gunner

bill e. goat said...

ATM,
"So I ask, what is new that will make a difference and grow the markets E-trick has?"

Easa (excuse me, Easy):
E-trick has gobs of Russian Ant Farmers!!!
-----------------------------
Reconsidering "What's it worth"?, another thing came to mind. It's a LOT easier to make a profit servicing airplanes, than manufacturing airplanes.

If Eclipse gave up service rights in 60 countries, two reasons come to mind:

1) they really DO NOT expect to have a large quantity of airplanes in service.

-and/or-

2) they REALLY need money- NOW.

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
A couple of corrections please:

"Under King louis the 15th , in france a firm was develloped to build a wonderland in Louisiana (hence the name of it)".

Well, I don't know who the King of France was, but Ike was President when Disneyland was built, and it's in California, not Louisiana.

Second, I become upset when you bring up the US National debt, and I think worrisome thoughts. So please ignore it (like we do).

One thing about this blog, it makes me think about things I wouldn't have otherwise.

Below,
Year is calander year
Qtr shows first day of quarter figures
Exchg is Euro/Dollar
Debt is US National debt, in $B
Oil is in $/barrel

Year Qtr Exchg Debt Oil

2000 Q1 1.00 5776 26
2000 Q2 1.05 5773 29
2000 Q3 1.05 5685 30
2000 Q4 1.14 5674 33
2001 Q1 1.06 5662 30
2001 Q2 1.1 5774 28
2001 Q3 1.18 5727 27
2001 Q4 1.09 5806 23
2002 Q1 1.11 5943 20
2002 Q2 1.13 5999 26
2002 Q3 1.02 6117 27
2002 Q4 1.01 6215 29
2003 Q1 0.95 6405 30
2003 Q2 0.93 6460 34
2003 Q3 0.87 6661 31
2003 Q4 0.86 6804 31
2004 Q1 0.79 6998 33
2004 Q2 0.81 7123 36
2004 Q3 0.82 7246 39
2004 Q4 0.81 7409 50
2005 Q1 0.75 7596 43
2005 Q2 0.78 7777 52
2005 Q3 0.83 7827 59
2005 Q4 0.84 7933 62
2006 Q1 0.84 8170 62
2006 Q2 0.82 8371 62
2006 Q3 0.78 8420 70
2006 Q4 0.79 8507 60
2007 Q1 0.76 8680 59
2007 Q2 0.75 8850 63
2007 Q3 0.74 8868 65
2007 Q4 0.71 9063 72
2008 Q1 0.68 9229 90

The exchange rate correlates fairly linearly with US debt. (Oil prices do not).

Interesting to consider:
If one were to have purchased an Eclipse around the time of first flight (Aug 26, 2002), for $1.15M, the price in Euro's would also have been about $1.15M Euros (exchange rate was about 1:1 then).

With the current exchange rate of .68 E = 1.00 $, that 1.15M Euro would now be equal to $1.7M (current price in dollars of an E-500).

Seems like that would help European sales. Those silly ninnies at EASA- they should stop dwelling on worrisome thoughts, and get on board (ah, make that figuratively, not literally).

bill e. goat said...

I am not placing blame, but feel obligated to comment, that since GWB took office, the national debt has gone up 63% (SIXTY-THREE PERCENT).

Turbine Power said...

Gunner,

Since you seem to be looking at Epic aircraft with goo-goo eyes, you might want also want to take a look at the most recent NTSB accident statistics:

Homebuilt aircraft have five times the accident rate of piston singles. Their accident rate is a stunning 10-times that of manufacturer-produced GA jets.

Pleasant dreams, my mis-guided friend :-))

Turbine Power said...

Jetprop notes, "Anyone else notice that the announement is 6 days old and there is virtually no comments from the faithful supporters of Eclipse."

The hater's blog has become irrelevant with the approval of Avio NG and the ETIRC announcement. The company's financial future has been assured, future support has been assured, and the reports keep coming in about how great the plane actually is once you get one.

So, why bother with a bunch of naysayers who are themselves spiralling downward as the one outcome they feared the most--the success of the plane and the company--materializes right before their eyes?

The most recent Mike Press market analysis conclusion says it all:

"There has been significant progress and achievements by Eclipse in the final two months of 2007. All technical issues have been resolved except for Flight Into Known Icing (FIKI). Eclipse anticipates this testing to be completed in the next few months. The major announcement in January was that Eclipse secured long term financing from European investors and the Russian Government. In return, Eclipse will open a second assembly line in Russia for the emerging European market. The forecast for the secondary market is now quite bullish. The inquiries and demand for early delivered airplanes are increasing daily. Sales have increased and prices are starting to rise. Once FIKI is certified and AvioNG airplanes get delivered in numbers, then sales should increase significantly and drive up prices even further.

I have flown over 250 hours in my Eclipse so far and it is still by far the best airplane for the price anywhere on the planet. The reliability is still fantastic and the support still excellent."

Gunner said...

Welcome back, Ken. I kinda thought kind words from a reporter about a successful aircraft enterprise would get you "out of the closet" again. And we're "haters", huh? Nice try.

No goo-goo eyes here. Just impressed as all hell to see a start-up do it right. Just like Diamond did. Just like Cirrus did. Just like Eclipse....well, never mind.

But did you see that $200 mill for non-controlling interest? For a company without even a certified model? From a bona fide investor, well known in the aviation industry? That's really something, huh?

As to the stats for Homebuilt Safety, tell me: does the FAA keep stats on the safety of already crashed aircraft, like the one you've chosen to fly these past couple decades. Now THAT would keep me awake nights for sure. Of course, one man's in-flight crash scrap is another's "value proposition", nyet?

"The company's financial future has been assured, future support has been assured"

Yep, the Depositors can barely conceal their glee about the rock-solid investors and the "assured support", I'm certain. The train has left the station. Next stop, Leningrad. :-D

Gunner

airsafetyman said...

"The major announcement in January was that Eclipse secured long term financing from European investors and the Russian Government. In return, Eclipse will open a second assembly line in Russia for the emerging European market."

Western Europe is an EMERGING market? Isn't there a slight problem with EASA certification as well? And ECLIPSE proposes to built a scratch-built factory 400 miles EAST of Moscow and staff it with inexperienced workers? Whatever credibility Mike Press ever had has just vanished.

airtaximan said...

this is what happens when soeone tells you they are taking away your toys - eclipse made it clear that they would cut Mike Press off at the knees... so now he's back n line.

I remember the good 'ol days when he disclosed his unsubstantiated suspicion they were a month or two away from demise... out of cash.

Today, the Russian deal saves the day! Imagine that!

Also, the aftermarket is heating up! Imagine that?

What a farce.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Ken, Ken, Ken, how is Africa?

As usual, you go off half cocked, bloviating about things you do not even begin to comprehend, but it is fun to clarify things thanks to your ineptitude so here we go.

The Epic LT is not a Homebuilt, it is an experimental aircraft built in a factory, on factory tools and jigs, with trained help - I've been there, seen it, was impressed. To use the term homebuilt shows you know not of which you speak. For the Epic, and several other truly high-performance experimental aircraft you MUST use factory assistance, IOW, you cannot have the parts of an Epic shipped to your garage.

Second, the Experimental accident rate includes Phase 1 and Phase 2 test flying, and includes everything from heavy ultralights through the Lancair IV-P and the Epic lineup - and it includes truly experimental aircraft, one-off's, etc. So the numbers are skewed and are wholly unrepresentative of the type of aircraft being discussed, but nice try, amateur.

Next, most experimental accidents, like most GA accidents, are pilot error - continued VFR flight into IMC, and landing accidents which is where many earlier high-performance experimentals were downright squirrely. As you may not realize, the earlier high-performance aircraft gave up stall margin and slow speed performance in order to get high speeds - the IV-P has half the wing area of a Mooney or Bonanza while weighing remarkably similar and going a full 80% faster (300 kts vs 170) - how do you suppose that works out? Now, I am a big fan of the Lancair IV-P but a touch down speed of 90mph is just a bit hot.

Having had the opportunity to actually discuss such things with the designer of the Epic, and having flown it, I can tell you the
Epic is not in the same mold (pun intended) as the IV-P. Epic specifically sized the wing and empennage to provide enough lift, control authority and CG range to meet their famous "Fill it up. Go the distance. Leave nothing behind." motto (seen that too).

And of course, since there are only about 15-20 Epic's flying right now, with no incidents or accidents so far, it is premature to identify which segment of the flying market it belongs with - but I have a hunch it isn't with the Titan Tornado's, and Skybolt's.

You also fail to recognize that the earlier high-performance experimentals (from RV's through the Glasair's and the original Lancair's to the IV) had a MUCH LOWER barrier to entry in terms of purchase price, when compared to comparable certified high-performance aircraft, so you had wealthy folks going out and buying them, having them professionally built, and then stacking them up at the end of a runway or in a field.

The Epic, at over a million dollars, is in a completely different league insofar as experimentals are concerned - and they have a factory flight training program similar to a type rating - also missing with the earlier high-performance experimentals.

So all in all a nice try, but I am afraid you were a little flat and will not be joining the gang in Hollywood.

We can all take solace in the fact that there have been more Eclipse gear-up landings than Epic's, more gear-collapses in Eclipse's than Epic's too for that matter. Eclipse also has more fleet groundings, more AD's, more partially functional, incomplete deliveries, more IOU's, more INOP placards and MORE DEVELOPMENT TO GO.

You know, when you told us to screw off you were taking your ball and going home you said something about getting your plane, Ken.

So, do you have it yet? Do you have a firm date yet? Been trained yet?

They have your money though, don't they.

I think you need to learn some Russian for your money, repeat after me:

Das Vidanya!

Which reminds me, does ETIRC have the market rights to Africa? If not, maybe you can setup a South Afriken distributorship, all you gotta do is pony up $100M at the next cash crunch - should be April or May at the latest.

airtaximan said...

"Russia Says Nuke Strikes Possible
AOL news...
By STEVE GUTTERMAN,
Posted: 2008-01-19 16:52:51
Filed Under: World News

MOSCOW (Jan. 19) - Russia's military chief of staff said Saturday that Moscow could use nuclear weapons in preventive strikes to protect itself and its allies, the latest aggressive remarks from increasingly assertive Russian authorities.

Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky's comment did not mark a policy shift, military analysts said. Amid disputes with the West over security issues, it may have been meant as a warning that Russia is prepared to use its nuclear might."

This should help.

airtaximan said...

cw,

I didn't have the heart. He won't anser, it VERY late in S. Africa.

BTW, if all of Europe, and Russia are worth $100M... what do you think the rights for Africa are worth.

$50K, max.

Niner Zulu said...

Next to Ken Meyers, Mike Press is the second loudest cheerleader for Eclipse. And why not...the more people Mike gets involved in the Eclipse ponzi-finance sheme, the more money he makes. Follow the money.

Mike said: "All technical issues have been resolved except for Flight Into Known Icing (FIKI)."

No more window inspections? The autopilot is now functioning perfectly? GPS and FMS are up and running perfectly? There are no more issues, folks. Stan, shut down the critic blog and everyone else just go home. Mike said everything is OK now.

Mike said: "The major announcement in January was that Eclipse secured long term financing from European investors and the Russian Government."

We all know how fast Eclipse burns through money. $100 million equals about 4 months. Hardly long term. Will there be more money to follow, as in enough to carry them through to that day in the future where Eclipse finally makes a profit? My crystal balls says NO. Eclipse was so desperate they had to go after foreign money because there was no one left in the U.S. that would finance them.

Mike said: "Sales have increased and prices are starting to rise."

What BS!. I guess if sales are totally stagnant, and you sell one position, that's 100% increase in sales. Doesn't Mike read the papers? IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID, AND THE FIRST THING TO LOSE VALUE IN A RECESSION (AFTER YOUR BOAT) IS GOING TO BE - YOU GUESSED IT - YOUR AIRPLANE. HELLO! WAKE UP!

Mike said: "Once FIKI is certified and AvioNG airplanes get delivered in numbers, then sales should increase significantly and drive up prices even further."

What utter nonsense. The prices are only going up in your head, Mike. Read the papers. Read Controller. There is NO evidence to even remotely suggest that Eclipse prices are going to increase. None. Zip. But there is a ton of evidence to indicate that prices are dropping already and will likely continue to do so!

Is there anything these guys won't say to get more people involved in this nightmare?

Niner Zulu said...

PS - Mike Press has 29 Eclipse positions for sale on his website www.spjets.com. Of these, 3 are marked as being sold and 1 as "contract pending".

His entire business is tied to the success or failure of Eclipse. So don't count on any unbiased information coming from him.

Like I said, follow the money.

airtaximan said...

there are still 51 listings on controller... as well..

my feelingis the $1.25M guarantee pretty much put the hex on the aftermarket.

I think the value price for these jets is around $1.25M. Anything else is a sucker punch.

I like Press, he's always been good - but the scare of eclipse saying they will take back the aftermarket, and then destroy the price with $1.25M guaranteed for anyone who dares... well, thats abusive!

Do you think Press knows Russian?
How do you say Controller in Russian?

Sad

Dave said...

This should help.

By the way, what progress has Eclipse made with ITAR/EAR compliance for the Russian Eclipse factory? When will the Russian Eclipse factory open? What will be the production rate of that factory? I don't see any announcements from Eclipse that either the US goverment or the Russian government even gave any regulatory approval whatsoever to the deal nor any mention whether the same parts would be used for the Russian aircraft as the US-made aircraft.

airtaximan said...

dave,

THAT's funny!

Gunner said...

I keep thinking about the $30 Million depositor raise and the Russian factory. Not linked directly, but both were obviously tied to ETIRC's Magnanimous Bail Out Offer.

Not much makes sense, except for the obvious desperation: A Telethon here; a deal with the Russian Govt there. Still, there's gotta be a PLAN here somewhere. Even madmen have plans. Problem is trying to deduce them from a reference frame of sanity.

Still, let's Blue Sky it, knowing this is not predictive; just musing. What IF, the money ran out in a few months and the well ran dry. What IF the Russians, errr ETIRC, then stepped in and picked up the company on a Stock purchase for a handful of roubles.

Would the Depositors have any legal standing to bitch, other than the possible default due to delay in delivery? After all, nowhere in the contract does it state their aircraft has to be manufactured in the USofA. Then, as now, they'll be faced with choices: "Stand in Line at the Order Desk or Stand in Line at the Bankruptcy Proceeding".

Oh, sure, there'd be a few years of "challenges" getting the Russian factory up to production; that would be AFTER the time necessary to get the necessary regulatory approvals from two Nations who are not exactly best pals.

But this is what Vern cites as Eclipse's specific competence, even as late as this Press Conference: Solving the problems it creates for itself. It's REALLY good at that, according to the Vernster. It should be. It's been doing it for a decade now.

In the end, however, everyone gets their plane at a real bargain, unless there are unpredictable "challenges" created by substandard Vendors like Hampson, Avidyne or Williams. In which case, Eclipse-Russia will simply work thru them, like they've been doing since 1998.

Ken gets to continue, for another decade, regurgitating the performance numbers of the plane that's "just around the corner"; Deposits keep dribbling in from one new market or another. After all, it worked once or twice or four times already, right? What's not to like?

Gunner

bill e. goat said...

Turbo,

Congrats on 250 hours!!! I'm wondering if you are the "high time" operator? Best wishes for many more happy and safe flights.

“Homebuilt aircraft have five times the accident rate of piston singles. Their accident rate is a stunning 10-times that of manufacturer-produced GA jets”.

I figured the accident rate would be even worse for homebuilt vs certified piston singles. Maybe the piston singles are a lot older than a typical homebuilt and have aging issues? (Don't we all :)

Regarding homebuilt vs GA jets, I figured it was a LOT worse than 10:1. Guess the homebuilt guys don't fly into the same weather as the jets.

p.s.- what is the general feeling amongst the owners regarding Eclipse's IPO? I would have expected it now, rather than the ETIRC deal. Thanks.
-----------------------------
Gunner,
“Just impressed as all hell to see a start-up do it right. Just like Diamond did. Just like Cirrus did. Just like Eclipse....well, never mind”.

Me too. I'm a bit puzzled by what happened at Columbia- anyone know the details? I'm glad Cessna picked up the pieces. Maybe THIS is the time for Eclipse to buy Adam. I've always thought Eclipse's next model should be bigger, not smaller.
-----------------------------
CWMOR,
Good point about the one-off nature of experimental aircraft.
-----------------------------
9Z,
Good point about Mike Price being VP of Cheerleading.
"All technical issues have been resolved except for Flight Into Known Icing (FIKI)."'”

I am stunned that 40 year old pneumatic de-ice boots are a 2 year challenge for Eclipse.
Then again, maybe it's NOT that surprising...I suppose they are re-inventing them.

Mike Price might also humbly add “Except for, oh, another year and a half of software development”.

As 9Z points out,
“Mike Press has 29 Eclipse positions for sale on his website www.spjets.com”. Mike Price has received good marks for being an up-and-up guy, and as long as the 29 positions aren't his positions (he doesn't have any money sunk), he could still be unbiased- but he does seem to be sounding rather "gushy" of late.
-----------------------------
ATM,
“Moscow could use nuclear weapons in preventive strikes to protect itself and its allies, the latest aggressive remarks...”

Please- I don't want to think about worrysome things. Think about happier things. Like the national debt.
-----------------------------

ASM,
“ ECLIPSE proposes to built a scratch-built factory 400 miles EAST of Moscow and staff it with inexperienced workers?”.

Hey don't worry- it only took 10 years to get the first one going.

(It would be completely stupid to have two lines for one model. And there is so much commonality between the single and twin, it would be stupid to build them in different locations. Maybe there is a third model in the works??? I doubt it, probably just wishful thinking that they aren't as mismanaged as it would appear).

Gunner said...

Oh, and by the way Ken.

What'd you think of the chutzpah of Epic, allowing a REAL reporter to fly a 100 hour initial prototype? The Press (other than Mike) STILL haven't been allowed to wring out a fully certified, partially completed EA-500 yet.

Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Real question now that they have clearly put the nukular option back on the table is who exactly is Putin gonna nuke when he figures out what happened to his $100M?

bill e. goat said...

Maybe this ETIRC thing is just a way for Russia to get some Eclipse employees who are former Sandia and Los Alamos National Labs workers!
:)
er...:(
-------------------------------
Regarding accident rates,
I bet this guy would be HAPPY to settle for a 5:1 ratio.
Beat's the Wright Brother's First Flight
R.I.P. Evel.
(think of this guy the next time you're having a gnarly approach:)

Dave said...

THAT's funny!

I'm still trying to understand the deal. So far I haven't heard a word from those that are supposedly being the actual fundors (the Russians). We presume it's the Russian federal government, but even that is an assumption and if it is the Russian feds, which agency or agencies are behind this? This afterall could be a repeat of the New Mexico/ABQ deals where it's [Russian] state and local governments involved.

Now even if it's the government that is funding it, it doesn't mean the Russian government is actually the ultimate source. as ETIRC advertises how they get financing for governments from european financial contacts:
http://www.etirc.com/cms/page/166
In theory it could be someone in the US who is funding this via European banks.

Reading this article provides information on the plant (Aviastar) to be used as well as the start date for production (late 2009):
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/01/18/220881/eclipse-and-etirc-bosses-are-linked-in-the-software.html
The plant (linked to Tupolev which has since then been partially bought by Western interests and P&W is involved):
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/industry/aviastar.htm

Pieper claims an order book of 300 so far - I wonder if those are actual sales or options. However, this article says there's only 100 orders (these are orders where money has actually been put down):
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20050614/40518589.html
This article also explains how that the plant is running at only 20% capacity.

Niner Zulu said...

I'm just wondering, as I'm sure a lot of the rest of you are: Haven't the the Russians read this blog? Wouldn't that be a normal part of the due-diligence process of investigating a company, especially a foreign one, before you invest in it?

Seriously - you enter the words "eclipse" and "aviation" into Google, and this blog is the number 3 listing. Hard to overlook.

So where are you, our Russian comrades? Are you waiting for a formal invitation to join in to the debate? If so, then on behalf of the Eclipse Aviation Critic I humbly invite you to take part in our discussions. We are very interested to hear your comments and learn more about the sweet deal you must have made for yourselves!

Dabro pozhalovat!

fred said...

yes , dave , very good work ...!

the former Tupolev plant in Ulyanovsk has been split in a myriad of smaller joint-venture long time ago ...

of the workers who once worked there , i would say not a lot of them are still around ...

aviastar is controlled (if memory serve me well ) by Price Waterhouse ...

there is an article about EAC on RIAN-novosti , but as written , it is said by pieper ...

anyone can read in the first line they speak about Bill Gates , why ? is that the tree hiding the forrest ? !!!

fred said...

coldwet ...

if you think that can help ...

repeat after me :

поцелуйте ваши деньги до свидания !

поцелуйте ваши деньги до свидания !

поцелуйте ваши деньги до свидания !

(kiss your money goodbye )


do you think ken has any talent for languages ? ;-))

by the way , dosvidania is formal .... since EAC is familly like , the word to be used is : Poka !

fred said...

biily ...

yes it was under Louis the 15th that Louisiana was populated (by mainly convicts ,prostitutes or adventurers , nothing wrong it has been the same for few colonies ...)

what i was referring to : Far away , Difficult to understand (just try to get the right stamp on the right paper in russia , you'll discover an other way of thinking ....) , very shadowy ...

on your comment about price and european market = what the point of buying a 1 ; 1.1 ; 1.2 ; 1.3 etc million US$ plane ??

does it make better ? does it finished itself and get certitified or fully functioning by itself , when not loosing value against change variations ?

i would say NO ! even 1 US$ or 1 € is too much for a job unfinished !
any other option is only speculation : it is up to anyone to decide if they want to risk whatever sum on such ...!

as for the worrysome thoughts , don't get me wrong , i just don't care ! it's none of my bizz (except making money out of it ...)

as it is said " fear never make danger to vanish"

at the same time "it is allways better to be surprised than deceived "

but still if (may be i should use WHEN) recession comes , i wonder how many of the mass orders for E500 are going to melt like ice-cream left in the sun ... (remember : volume is key word)

since GWB came to office , the debt rose 63% yes , this is exactly what they want you to know ...

since th US Fed. Res. does not publish anymore datas on expansion of monetary masses , how do you calculate it ??

in finance : anything which is not made to be publicly known is to be considered as UNknown ....!

Shane Price said...

Fred,

That would make the Eclipski a classic example of (apologies to Mr. Rumsfeld)

Unknown unknowns, by the unknowing

And another thing. At no point, anywhere, does anyone claim that '$100 million' has been delivered in CASH. No one knows for sure WHAT has 'arrived'...

Shane

fred said...

yes , shane ...

as i wrote it before :

it looks like (more and more) as a "bank guarantee" scam ...

or

some are going to understand that having secured funds is a very different history from having funds ...!

fred said...

shane ..

one of the thing , i found comical :

EAC used to be :

" Fly into the Future "

after a while it started to be

" Voler vers le Future ; Fliegen in die Zukunft "

then :

" مكتوب تطير في المستقبل "


now it is :

" полет в будущее "

so the question is , what next ?

" עָף; בָּרַח, נִמְלַט "

may be ... ;-))

(georgian is supposed to be quite difficult , ethiopian even worse !)

FlightCenter said...

There has been very little comment regarding Vern's statement that he needs to hire 700 additional workers to make the production numbers (and retrofits) for 2008.

This isn't promising in terms of cash burn rate.

This isn't promising in terms of how many aircraft they will have to produce per year to reach break even.

This isn't promising in terms of meeting their production numbers. What is the likelihood that they will meet their hiring targets? They will need to find 700 qualified production staff who will be interested in working at Eclipse.

This isn't promising in terms of how long the latest cash infusion will support the continued operation of the company.

This isn't promising in terms of the securing the next round of cash from ETIRC, which accoring to the Flight Global article is dependent upon meeting certain deliverables.

Or perhaps it is over-promising.

On another topic, where Vern seems to have been over-promising -

The idea that Eclipse is going to control quality by kitting parts and sending them to Russia seems to have had a very short life.

According to the Flight Global article, "Ultimately, Raburn says he expects vendors will send components directly to Russia. "

and "Once the assembly line comes on line in late 2009 and the "accumulated volume" increases, Pieper says the companies could begin looking for more second- and third-tier suppliers locally..."

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
I hope you haven't misintrepeted my sacrasm about the US debt ("worrysome thoughts") as disinterest- I really AM worried about the national debt, and even MORE worried that others aren't worried, and demanding that our politicians do something about it. Instead, Hillary and Obama were trying to outdo each other with giveaways in Nevada, while Bush announces (another) $140B giveaway to trump them. I guess it's the Eclipse economic model at work: it's all about VOLUME.

"Fear never made danger vanish"

Neither did ignorance, but that seems to be what our politicians are counting on.
-----------------------------
"anything which is not made publicly known is to be considered as UNknown"

(I'd say the Eclipse order book is pretty UNknown :)

EclipseDriver said...

The bloggers ask, "Haven't the the Russians read this blog? Wouldn't that be a normal part of the due-diligence process of investigating a company, especially a foreign one, before you invest in it?"

Excellent point. Despite all the blog's words against Eclipse, the endless energy consumed in the quest, it has failed to sway anyone. ETIRC, the Russians, and hundreds upon hundreds of customers continue to put their seal of approval on the plane. They put their money where their mouth is.

The bloggers' currency may be mere rancor, but the supporters vote with real dollars.

That is a depressing reality for the bloggers, who have to ask themselves "what is the point?"

airtaximan said...

ED
man... gotta hurt.

You gotta relax man.

I am sure the Russians have no part in the deal, really, except they were sold a bill of goods, provided a guarantee of sorts, and E-trick funded the deal to some degree.

By the PR conflicts so far, there's NO plan, and no real money from the Russians.

Also, I suspect, anyone reading this blog, and deciding to support eclipse, would either already be a "position-holder" just shilling to perpetuate the myths, or someone with a connection to the company.

Otherwise, they are critics.

I see the eclipse deal as following the path of Epic who has a manufacturing deal with Tablisi
and who made a "good" deal with real money with Vijay Maliyah (Kingfisher).

Eclipse made a deal with a newcomer, for "some money", and the Russians for an assembly plant which needs to get started up.

- weren't there supposed to be automotive industry style ROBOTS?

anyhow, if I were you ED, I'd relax - no one really cares what's on this blog... you have to already be involved to want to remain involved, and at this point, you are just figgerin out what to do with the BOS.

PS. I remember a story of a factory in Czech or somewhere producing engines - it was bought by an American, for almost nothing (given to him? for a promise to do something with it) anyhow, he mortgaged the building or sold the real estate and left. Everyone was pissed, but he made a pile of cash.

Real estate can be leveraged... even Russian RE.

Enjoy the show.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

ED, why is it that you and and our Saouth AfriKenblogger among others continue to misunderstand and misrepresent the nature of the blog.

This is not the 'Prevent Eclipse from Raising Money Blog', it is not the 'Drive Eclipse to Failure Blog', nor is it the 'I Need a Real Life but Pick on Eclipse Blog'.

This is the Eclipse Aviation Critic Blog, and the reason for it, and for the participation of most of us here, Critics at least, has been explicitly stated. As with all web communities, it has grown a bit beyond that, friendships have been made, I'd be surprised if a business venture or two has not been launched as a result od the blog.

My intent is not to see Eclipse fail, as I have repeatedly said, I have friends there and I hope they are eventually rewarded for the sacrifices they have made.

I like the concept of the plane but that does not make the ridiculously inept execution should be free from criticism.

There is a total lack of self-accountability in Eclipse, especially at the top - that is one reason the blog exists, to provide a voice to folks who know better.

There is a completely undeserved sense of arrogance that remains unchecked after ten years and yes over a billion dollars worth of missed schedules, blown budgets and unmet promises. There is a massive serving of crow to be had, and that is another reason I believe the blog exists.

Also, there is no reason to believe that Eclipse is somehow out of the woods. The last 270 million lasted about 5 or 6 months AND they were late on $50M in obligations when the round closed.

We all know that there is no direct corelation between wealth and common sense, which gave rise to old adage 'There's a sucker born every minute', wrongly attributed to P.T. Barnum, and 'You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time' correctly attributed to Abraham Lincoln.

This has been evidenced by both the amount of money raised from 'investors' in Eclipse to the tune of over a billion dollars, as well as the number of 'diehards' who have ponied up for jets they have not yet received and which they may not ever receive.

For my own perspective, my concern is the trustworthiness of the FAA which the Eclipse program has called into question, the image of an industry I have dedicated my life to which has also been called into question by lowering expectations to the point that a partially functional incomplete preemie jet that does half what it was said to do now counts as a delivery.

Criticism does not equate to hate.

Pointing out repeated failures and incomepetence does not equate to hate.

Concern for our industry does not equate to hate.

Perhaps you and the other Faithful can try and get that right, the supporters already have and actually offer things of value to the discussion.

bill e. goat said...

E-driver,
Welcome to the show!
It's good intertainment- I think there is no ill-intent involved in trying to persuade "the other side" (whichever one that is).

Given the blog's title, it's a bit "critic"-al of Eclipse, but I consider it a balance to Eclipse PR (and I would say, substantially more honest).

Even when theories posted here are disproved (whether "for" or "against"), the discussions are generally quite educational.

Arrrr, Welcome aboard matey!
-----------------------------
I've noted the tone of many proponents changes over the course of a few months, from exasperated advocacy, to a more neutral commentary.

I'd say part of that is them getting burned by echoing Eclipses promises, only to find with the rest of us that such faith was not as well placed as they thought.
-----------------------------
Eclipse has done an abysmal job on schedule, or should I say, on achieving their schedule- this is beyond arguement. Making 100 planes the first year of production is great- taking 10 years to get to production is pitiful, so "beauty is in the eye of the beholder".

(What grates many are the preposterous claims regarding schedule Eclipse has made on an ongoing monthly basis. So I can see why many critics are skeptics).

I'm not sure if anybody has been disuaded from buying an Eclipse by what they've read here- I frankly hope not, and they have based their decisions on the technical merits of the airplane. But unless buying it as a collectible, there are other issues to prudently consider:

1) Cost (trends- historical data presented here)
2) Schedule (Ecipse foibles revealed here)
3) Capability (now, as well as "Tuesday")
4) Supportability (future of the company)

I would say regarding all of these issues, a potential buyer is well served by reading the blog, and being aware of issues being discussed here. I do hope they've made more informed decisions, one way or the other.

Gunner said...

Eclipse Driver said:
"Despite all the blog's words against Eclipse, the endless energy consumed in the quest, it has failed to sway anyone."

Isn't this the part where The Cardinal comes in screeching, "You don't know that. You have no proof!"? Fact of the matter is that information and viewpoint from this Blog has increasingly made its way into mainstream press articles and even Vern, in his latest Press Conference, twice alluded to what "the critics" say. Perhaps he was talking only about Aboulfia (sp), but I tend to think not.

Additionally, the alliance with ETIRC begs the question, "Why not a AAA+ investment group without the potential for the political imbroglio? Why sell off sixty major markets for a promise of funding 'on Tuesday'?" The answer is pretty simple...unless you've convinced yourself that Peiper and Moscow were preferable to UBS and Zurich. Whether the mainstream investment house analysts read this Blog before passing on another Eclipse deal is anyone's guess. Would you have visited it, if you were tasked with the Due Diligence project?

"The bloggers' currency may be mere rancor, but the supporters vote with real dollars."

That's simply false and I, among others, am living proof of it. I DID vote with my wallet when I took back my deposit. Many others HAVE voted with their wallets when they deposited on Mustangs and Hondas and Embraers and Pipers and Cirrus and Epic and Diamond. See those companies don't need the entire market to survive the way Eclipse does. That's why Ken, errr TP, gets his panties in a wad when a positive piece is written about Epic.

You can't possibly believe Eclipse never made it onto these Depositors radar screen. The EA-500 just never made the short list and, for those who checked the company out thru Google, this Blog could not have been overlooked.

That's just the way it is.
Gunner

airtaximan said...

CW,

au contrare, mon frere..

- promising to deliver 400 planes during the next 6 months in order to thieve $600,000 progress payments out of 400 customers, MIGHT actually equate to hate.

These planes were scheduled for delivery in 2006. None were delivered during 2006, and perhaps 105 (self serving number) were delivered, mostly in Q-4 /07. most of the remaining 300 or so are not even scheduled for delivery until mid-late /08.

If our comments here are being called hate, what do you call THAT?

airsafetyman said...

"and "Once the assembly line [in Russia] comes on line in late 2009 and the "accumulated volume" increases, Pieper says the companies could begin looking for more second- and third-tier suppliers locally..."

And then the FAA, AFTER certifing the Russian factory and entire Russian operation (which is required IF the airplanes are to be issued a US Certificate of Airworthiness) could travel out into the wildest reaches of Siberia to inspect the new sub-assembly suppliers? And Eclipse will have the EASA requirements to comply with also. This takes bat-poo insanity to a whole new level.

fred said...

billy ...

well ...

do not worry about about misunderstanding or misinterpretation ...

even if most americans haven't got that much education on european history , i think it could an insult to humanity to understand what you wrote the first time as what you comment the second time ....!

i know that you knew "wonderland" was not build under louis the 15 th as much as i should have written "land of wonders ..."

about the "worrysome" sorry i cannot care too much , after been working in Africa for some times , i can guarantee you it is NO point to try to protect peoples against themselves ...

but i am glad to see Some are at least trying to know or to guess the extent of the mega-hole just under your feet ...

airtaximan ...

you made me smile ...

in fact , if i remember well (not sure) the Russian Plant etirc is talking about in Ulyanovsk was supposed to become a farm or a milk producing and packaging unit .... the land for the cows and the hangars for the packaging ...! ;-))

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
"...there is NO point to try to protect people against themselves"

Well said!
I think the blog proves it!
:)

fred said...

airtaxi ...


i'm really impressed ...

you start writting french ...!!

but allow me to correct you (just a bit )

it is :

"Au contraire , mon frère"

;-))

Gunner said...

Quick side question:
Fred-
Just wondering. Are you French or German by birth?

Regards-
Gunner

fred said...

gunner ...

both french and german ...!
thoses are my 2 main citizenships ...!

but i wasn't born in Germany neither in france , but in Morocco ...!

best regards

Black Tulip said...

Welcome aboard Eclipsedriver.

You asked of the bloggers, …”what is the point?”

We have your best interest at heart. A number of us are operating turbine aircraft with known ice certification, fully functioning avionics and autopilot. We’ve been operating these machines for the entire ten-year period that Eclipse has been promising one.

We’d like to see you get yours too. To the extent that criticism here is constructive, it may influence management, investors, depositors and owners to make better decisions.

flyger said...

EclipseDriver said...

ETIRC, the Russians, and hundreds upon hundreds of customers continue to put their seal of approval on the plane. They put their money where their mouth is.

One imagines that there would be much fewer customers if they were told how it would be *now* when they place their order *then*. If you told them that Eclipse would get heavy, burn more fuel, have to redo engines and avionics, have no FIKI, no FMS, be in bed with the Russians, and have delivered only about 100 incomplete airplanes at the start of 2008, I don't think many would have plunked down the bucks 8 years ago.

In this case, the supporters have *only one* viable escape plan, that Eclipse survives, so they self delude that everything that happens is positive. It is a defense mechanism to shield them from reality.

Meanwhile, those of us with objective viewpoints see it differently. Eclipse has all the makings of a colossal business disaster.

EclipseDriver said...

Yep, things like

Type certificate
Production certificate
Thick order book
Strong investor backing
and a really good product

Not to mention that the nearest competitor charges like twice as much for their product and it isn't as good.

Yep. All the signs of a colossal business failure are there, for those like you with "objective viewpoints"!!

Black Tulip said...

“Not to mention that the nearest competitor charges like twice as much for their product and it isn't as good.”

EclipseDriver, if you fly, kindly share with us the aircraft type you are currently operating.

Niner Zulu said...

ED,
Have you ever looked at Eclipse's "nearest competitor" and the Eclipse side by side? One is squatty, has tip tanks because of a major engineering blunder, is cramped, has no baggage compartment in the nose, can't fly in ice, doesn't have a GPS or FMS, requires recurring window inspections and is built by a company which just 7 months ago was teetering on bankruptcy and now has had to jump in bed with the Russians because they have exhausted their US cash cow.

The "nearest competitor" to Eclipse, on the other hand, is elegant, roomy, has excellent fit & finish, great support worldwide, tried and proven Garmin avionics, good resale value and huge ramp appeal. Yeah, it costs more...so what?

If the two were the same price, would you choose the Eclipse over the "competitor"?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Type certificate
That has been marred by an as yet to be dismissed complaint from worker level employees of the FAA.

Production certificate
For an aircraft that has yet to be delivered, anywhere, to anyone.

Thick order book
That is less than half as 'thick' as it is claimed (recently admitted to by EAC itself), but apparently as 'thick' as certain Faithful suffering from MPD.

Strong investor backing
Both the unsecured types who have ponied up somewhere north of $300M to a company that has delivered less than $100M worth of planes, and now from non-aerospace people well outside the US - should be a real confidence booster there for sure.

and a really good product
I don't even know where to begin with that - have you been to any South Afriken destinations lately?

Would you call a would-be BMW delivered without a radio, without a nav system, without windshield wipers or a heater, and equipmen designed 8 years ago a 'good product'?

Guess we know the answer.

EclipseDriver said...

Would I choose Eclipse over its nearest competitor if the price was the same?

Yep. The Eclipse is a smarter design and much more efficient to operate. It has a bunch of nice features anyone would prefer over the time-honored but outdated and stodgy design of its competition.

bill e. goat said...

E-driver,
You mention several promising items, items that ALL manufacturers have, to some arguable degree (I'm including Eclipse in the "arguable" part, esp regarding TC and PC...heck, I guess ALL of the items you mention :)

Type certificate
Production certificate
Thick order book
Strong investor backing
and a really good product

But what is conveniently missing in comparison to their competitor, regardless of market pricing, is:

PROFIT

Read the Eclipse PR's, and you'll be happy, and worry free. Have some more Koolaid (we haven't kicked that term around for a while :)

But if you want to know what is going on, and what might go on*, come here and keep reading.
-----------------------------
*I add "might go on", because the blog simply does not have a perfect track record. But it's more accurate than Eclipse PR's, and it's been RIGHT ON enough that a prudent consumer should contemplate both sides of the issues. Issues which one might not even be aware of if not for the blog.
-----------------------------
There are a LOT of sharp, experienced people with diverse expertise here, on "both sides". I'd bet that you are one of them, E-D. I'm not sure how long, or how closely, you've been reading the blog, but "bear with us*" for a couple of months, and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how much good information there is here. Good discussions by smart people (even if you don't agree with most of their positions- you'll learn a lot- I know I did, and still do).

And you might even find it to be fun reading, if you don't take it too seriously (good advice for all of us, I think). I don't think the blog has hurt Eclipse in any way, and on the other hand, I would say it has raised the awareness of consumers. And by virtue of that, it's a lot better service to society than the Eclipse PR dribble.
-----------------------------
*"Bear with us": I have NO idea where this saying comes from. I tried to look it up, and found it's used both "bear" and "bare".

EclipseDriver said...

Black tulip the name says it. I used to own half a TBM 700 before the Eclipse.

Black Tulip said...

EclipseDriver,

Thanks, the TBM 700 is a best-seller and has a good reputation.

airtaximan said...

ED,

So, you made your choice... why are you here?

Why are you so transparent?

Thought so.

Enjoy your E500... rriiiggghht. I am sure you'll be so happy together.

ED.
ED.
Ed.
Ed.
Ed.
ED.

Gunner said...

ED-
We should introduce you to Mirage. He used to own one of those, before his pilot license magically reverted to Non-Instrument rated.

I realize the TBM is significantly higher priced than the Eclipse, especially the Fire Sale model offered just before they went East (WAY East). But tell us: do you miss the little luxuries like range, payload, FIKI, moving map, functional autopilot, product support and company stability?

Those should count for a few Rubles, no?
Gunner

mirage00 said...

We should introduce you to Mirage. He used to own one of those, before his pilot license magically reverted to Non-Instrument rated.

"There you go again..." You must be well into your 6th drink by now.

Welcome Eclipsedriver!

I remain amused

double 00

Ringtail said...

Hey Gunner, how;s the epic coming along?

Ringtail said...

Mirage said "There you go again..." You must be well into your 6th drink by now.

Gunner likes the "liquid courage"

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Now girls, here we were all playing nice and then you show up with nothing of value to offer and resort to your Drive-By Brother brand ad hominem personal jibes.

Guess it's true what they say, the more things change the more they stay the same.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Ringtail, if you would read you would know the Epic build starts I believe in March.

Gunner will have a fully functional turbine powered LT before ANYONE has a fully functioning Eclipse 500, so I understand the jealousy.

mirage00 said...

Now girls, here we were all playing nice and then you show up with nothing of value to offer and resort to your Drive-By Brother brand ad hominem personal jibes.

May I suggest you read the order in which the posts occurred.

I remain amused!

double 00

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Stating that you claimed to have owned a specific type of plane and the classification of record for your pilot's license is not an ad-hominem attack Double Zero - but what you and retail said were personal.

Sorry you don't see it that way, but I am not surprised.

Ringtail said...

Coldwet, I'm not knocking the Epic. I just wondered how the build was progressing. Thank you for reminding me that it begins in March.

PS- I am a big fan of the Epic product line. And, the experimental route is looking better every day.

Niner Zulu said...

M00, ED, & Ringtail,

All I have to say is "This company continues to underwhelm in terms of customer experience. Long term, poor customer service, low satisfaction, and high executive and employee turnover does not bode well for Eclipse becoming a successful, lasting corporation. Hopefully the trends will reverse."

Oops - I guess I copied that from the E500 Club website. That statement was made by one of the diehards, not by me.

Sorry, my mistake ;-)

Niner Zulu said...

Hey Diehards, how about this comment from your buddy Mike Press:

"Fortunately or unfortunately I am a fairly heavy pilot--215lbs. When I fly with my wife (who sits in cabin) I make sure all the luggage is stored up front. I am careful not to place heavy luggage in the baggage compartment--it goes up front. Typically if you do not put any weight in the baggage compartment you are within limits on CG."

So, I guess this means that, unlike the Mustang where you have 2 baggage areas, the Eclipse only has 1 baggage area to the rear of the seats which is pretty much totally useless if you fly with passengers. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Niner Zulu said...

Here's another typical comment from a "Diehard" in the E500 Club:

"I think it is a bad time of year to be buying a jet without FIKI. We have canceled several trips, done significant reroutes and delayed training due to potential icing. This might focus buyers attention on the difference between the fully-functioning-as-promised Mustang and the Eclipse. Eclipse has also perhaps caused some additional attention to their financial difficulties with the deposit program. I think we are all nervous to some degree that Eclipse might be unable to support our planes in the future if they don’t get their finances together. These concerns could result in deposit holders deciding to dump their positions at low prices while they still can. I don’t think anybody would have a concern like that for the Mustang."

When I hear stuff like this, written by the diehards on their own private blog, I can't tell you how much it makes me want to go out and buy an Eclipse right now!

***

Only having fun here, guys. Besides, you asked for it with those comments.

;-)

flyger said...

EclipseDriver said...

The Eclipse is a smarter design and much more efficient to operate. It has a bunch of nice features anyone would prefer over the time-honored but outdated and stodgy design of its competition.

For the record, what are those features that "anyone" would prefer?

fred said...

eclipsewallbanger ...

oouupss eclipsedriver (sorry got carried away...!by the way is that : "...driver" because you haven't leave the ground , yet ? :-)) )

ok so :

Type certificate
Production certificate
Thick order book
Strong investor backing
and a really good product


type certificate = in Russia one of theirs biggest problem ,still to be cured, is "administration"
you cannot even imagine how difficult it is to deal with civil-servant that go to "work" to see and chat with other they have been in offfice for the last XX years ... what ? they are supposed to care about people and chores to be done ?? amazing ! :-))

production cert. : same from above apply , at the same time if the former "tupolev" plant has become a milk packaging thing , it is at least a good point for workers , they'll get pints of milk for free ... ;-))

but i doubt US FAA is going to be so happy about it , as for EASA , well ... most of problems in EASA are coming from a simple fact = when FAA is under one Flag with one language ( which makes things easier if someone from above is "pushing" a bit the matter ...) in EASA it is multilingual and multinational ... if a german whatever try to "push" there will always be an Irish , Italian , Dutch or whatever to answer "get lost ... , please !"

thick order book = how thick ? don't you know Books are called that way because most of times they have more than just a very few pages ....

strong investors backing = I would be , off-course it is ONLY a personnal feeling, a bit worried on this topic ...

it seems US investors have been exhausted (not to use the term "rinsed") so now EAC has to rely on Russians investors ...

well ... last time i had a talk with a "tough" russian he told me : "a real man is someone that can stick-up a knife into anyboby's belly while watching that personn straight in the eyes and be smiling while he turn the knife inside !"

hope you're not too wrong on that ...

a real good product = well ... that the most truthfull part of the post .... if only it would be finished !!!

Gunner said...

Ouch, looks like we touched a couple nerves. The truth has a nasty habit of bringing out the worst in some.

9Z-
Are you quoting from the same Forum that Ken advertised as the place to for real dope on the EA-500? Is the price of admission still $130K plus all the spam you can handle?

Stan's Blog offers those insights and so much more, sans spam...and for free!

Thanks for sharing.
Gunner

fred said...

sorry for a little outside question , just wondering for a few days without asking ....

shane , vy gavaritié pa russky , drouk ?

thanks

ExEclipser said...

Funny that Adam is rarely mentioned in here as an emminent failure. Look at the investment that they are requiring to remain afloat. Even with their high-profile board of directors, they still have to lay off 300 people to get the 500 in full production! Nevermind getting the 700 off the ground.

Adam won't survive. Why would anyone want a twin PISTON airplane for just a couple hundred grand less than a twin jet? It's composite, but not any lighter. It's not even a turbo prop. Heck, even the Mirage is a better buy than the A500.

Sooo.... Eclipse is hiring 750, Adam is dropping 300...

By the way, I wonder if this ETIRC deal affects the 48 people who bought an Eclipse at a 30% discount back in December... Dang, I wish I had the cash...

EclipseDriver said...

Congratulations niner zulu there are over 4300 messages on the owner's board and you found a couple with negative comments!

The owners aren't mindless fanatics like the bloggers enjohy believing. The Eclpse 500 club covers it all; the good, the bad, the in-between. But most comments are like this one last night "What a great jet - it is really beautiful very safe and easy to fly ."

fred said...

yeaaa cheers ...

but correct if wrong :

e500club is that the site were you have to pay to read the "bible" ?

4300 messages , how comes ?

pissed-out customers fed-up of waiting ?

or some memebers more talkative than usual ??

Stan Blankenship said...

Off topic, but a great read -

London 777 crash

Black Tulip said...

Stan,

A very well-done article, especially for one appearing in the general press.

mouse said...

This is not only dangerous, but E-leagle....

There better be an STC or other approved bagagge storage and hold-down for putting any baggage anywhere other than the baggage compartment.. Of course he probably uses the bags to hold the skis from flopping around...

Brilliant....! Ever wonder what would happen in a go-around or hard pull up and have that CG critical and loose baggage slide or get thrown aft....?

"Fortunately or unfortunately I am a fairly heavy pilot--215lbs. When I fly with my wife (who sits in cabin) I make sure all the luggage is stored up front. I am careful not to place heavy luggage in the baggage compartment--it goes up front. Typically if you do not put any weight in the baggage compartment you are within limits on CG."

Kim said...

No one else has noticed the grammar of the this latest blog? It seems unlikely that anyone would follow such criticism from such an uneducated platform right?

flyger said...

Black Tulip said...

A very well-done article, especially for one appearing in the general press.

It is full of factual errors. The author exposes his ignorance in many places.

Stan Blankenship said...

kim,

The King's English is not fred's first language, probably not even his third of fourth.

Shane Price said...

Fred,

Non, mon ami, just the history, not the language.

Really worthwhile study, Russia. Explains 'one side' (literally as well as other senses) of our common European home.

Now, if I could understand some of these mad Americans half as well....

You know the one's I'm thinking of. They pay upfront for goods that are incomplete (really...) and only complain about it afterwards.

And as for the con men who sell the stuff in the first place.

Shane

fred said...

stan ...

thank you for defending me ... really ! (but don't you do it too much , or i will have to invite you for dinner ... :-)) )

but i am a (supposed) grown-up , so usually i do this kind of chore myself ...

KIM , you just reminded me of a uncle who was saying that the personn who emphasize a lot on THEIRS knowledge of ONLY one language are personn with such a small and defficient brain that it is useless to point this truth to them ...! if that uncle would have been a bum , it could be ok for you ... but i was extremely succesful ... probably because he was a VERY open-minded one , which is obviously not the first of your qualities , if any ...!

but if you , as you suggest , believe or read ONLY what is written out the best possible english ....

well i give some advice , go buy some lubricant , go back home to watch TV .... with some luck you may get some speech from some politicians of your side ... hence the need for the lubricant ...!


shane ...

i was just wondering ...!

but i agree very much on the history side ... last time i was asked to give some carrer advices for Eco. students (which is mad : me giving advices ??? !!!) one of them told me after a speech :
"it's funny , you make weird things look easy to understand , how come ?"

answer = "you want to know what's going now ? learn and understand what did happen yesterday ...!"

especially in Russia , if anyone can know their past , then present is so much easier to understand ...

about americans = don't worry , a Russian collegue allways say " they just do not live on the same planet ...!" ;-))

fred said...

well ...

i forgot !

not to show-off with any better education ( in fact the only language i've learn in scholl is italian ..)

i can communicate in

french , german , english arabic , hebrew , japaneese , swahili , créole , papiémento , dutch ,italian , spannish , ladino , diola , wolof , russian , a bit of turkish , some other africans dialects i will spare you the effort to read the name

i have WRITTEN "can communicate " because the point for a languge is to communicate , NOT to show-off you handle better than your neighbors ...

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
Now, you just need to master "Eclipse-speak"!!
Repeat after me:
"T-H-E F-I-R-S-T"
"C-E-R-T-I-F-I-E-D"
"D-I-S-R-U-P-T-I-V-E"
...
"T-U-E-S-D-A-Y"
:)

fred said...

billy ...

don't be silly 'if you allow me this play-words )

no , that too complicated for me ...

and i love to have some precise stuff in my life (when i learn new things)

so i cannot repeat unless you tell me about what Tuesday you're meanning ...!

hoo , this one ....!! too far away in time , i ' ll be dead by then ... ! ;-)

Niner Zulu said...

"Congratulations niner zulu there are over 4300 messages on the owner's board and you found a couple with negative comments!"

Eclipsedriver,

But...the negative comments posted by Eclipse owners ARE true, aren't they? Just because the ratio of positive comments to negative comments is probably 50:1 in the E500 Club doesn't mean the "negative" comments don't carry as much weight. I might point out that many of the negative comments come from the owner/operators of Eclipse, not from the position-holders who are still fantasizing about their future jet as they believe it will be, not as it actally exists today.

I might also point out that negative comments are NOT encouraged in E500 Club blog. People complain that their getting "screwed" by Eclipse, and all the diehards can do is try & pursuade them that everything is going to get better. What a bunch of wimps you guys are! If Vern screwed me out of $600,000 over a year ago, promising my jet within 6 months, I'd have demanded my 60% deposit money back AND Vern would still have to deliver my jet as originally promised or be sued for fraud, which this clearly was.

ED I don't even know why you read this blog. Stay in the 500Club blog where you can talk about how fun the plane is to fly.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

I agree that the article on the B777 is not that accurate.

They seems to mix up thrust loss, loss of displays and loss of control.

At the start they say the Co had three displays, and Captain had three - There are six, but each pilot has a PFD and an ND, the other two are in the middle vertical, with the top being the standard EICAS display, and lower an MFD which is most often left blank in flight. (what is displayed here on approach will depend on the airlines AMI and procedures)

The say that the failure of the main engines had caused a loss of both engines had caused the loss of main power - If you have a dual generator loss the RAT auto deploys and provides the essential bus and essential hydraulics, so the plane will operating under normal control.

For that to happen the EICAS would go apeshit and start rattling off warnings and cautions like a pinball machine (Engine fail, hyd fail, Gen fails, varius system fails etc.

I went over the schematic at work today (I have a B777 maintenance license). The Boeing philosophy is to keep the pilots in the loop, so the thrust management can not order thrust directly - rather it just moves the throttle levers through the A/T servos. The throttle levers are mechanically linked to the Thrust lever angle resolvers, which are powered by the respective engine PMA alternators through the Fadecs. I don't see a failure mode in the A/T here which could cause LOTC on both side at the same time, with out the crew noticing and overriding it.

A F100 OE-LFO went in on a field new Munich due to loss of thrust after the Fan Ice impact panel were knocked out (from ice) and blocked the bypass ducts. The Trent 800 has a totally difference bypass ratio. I can't see that happening here.

Fuel starvation? When the Hapag Lloyd A310 landed short of the Vienna runway (Must have been about 1998) due fuel starvation, they reported one flamed out, just as they got a relight on it, the second flamed out, and then the first one flamed out again. In that case it was pilot error compounded by get home it is pressure from OPS. The left Greece with gear unable to retract and tried to make it up to Germany for some reason. In that case there was no secret, they had been discussing diversions and fuel throughout the flight with OPS and ATC.

The another engine model had an issue with a FADEC software load which could cause an uncomanded roll back at about rotation speed at a certain set of parameters. I can't remember if they got AD's, but the FHA did indicate the probability of this causing a dual engine event.

Since the AAIB has the live crew, the FDR, the CVR and even better a QAR and an unburnt A/C, (if the cause isn't obvious by now, they will start combing the non-volatile memory of FADECS, the AIMS and ELMS components for clues.

Just to bring this back on topic - the 777 fleet has tens (maybe hundreds) of millions of flight hours. There have been a few glitches and this looks to be the first to cause harm. How does the Partial Eclipse compare?

To bring this back on topic

WhyTech said...

fjt said:

"Just to bring this back on topic - the 777 fleet has tens (maybe hundreds) of millions of flight hours. There have been a few glitches and this looks to be the first to cause harm."

I am currently in the process of getting qualified in the Bell 407 helicopter. This design has been in production for 12 years, and is possibly the first light turbine helicopter with FADEC (on a RR 250 -C47 engine). There has been a string of FADEC issues over the years, and they are still tweaking the FADEC software. AFAIK, no tragic outcomes to date, but still tweaking. This situation is probably more similar in complexity to the E-clips than the 777. It would not surprise me to see E-clips tweaking their software 12 year from now in the unlikely event they survive that long. Really makes me want an E-clips!

WT

Stan Blankenship said...

Posted below the horizon,

gene said...
Where are the Eclipse ? Look at FlightAware.com for the eclipse type (EA50) and there are very few there. Compare to the Cessna Mustang C510 (claimed 40 delivered in 2007)and you see a few every day (non-demo). If Eclipse delivered 100 where are they? (factor out the Day Jet ones)

2:57 PM, January 21, 2008

flyger said...

If Eclipse delivered 100 where are they? (factor out the Day Jet ones)

It's January. No FIKI. Nearly every cloud is below freezing.

Seems obvious to me...

Turbine Power said...

Five Eclipse 500's flying right now. Only 2 Mustangs.

So your point would be..."obvious" :-))

airtaximan said...

"Five Eclipse 500's flying right now."

poor Dayjet

airtaximan said...

from Kim:

"No one else has noticed the grammar of the this latest blog? It seems unlikely that anyone would follow such criticism from such an uneducated platform right?"

I think you missed a comma after platform, right?

What exactly did you mean by
"the this blog"?


You must live in a glass house.

Turbine Power said...

7 EA500's vs just 2 C510's right now.

Did somebody say the Mustang's are flying more?

airtaximan said...

7 EA500's vs just 2 C510's right now.


poor Dayjet

421Jockey said...

My EA50 flew today, but the feds got the Type wrong. This seems to be the case about 1/3 of the time. I am sure it is the same for the Mustang, but between incorrect flight plans from the FAA and pilots using other sources for flight planning (Universal) there are a lot more flights out there than you think.

Ex-421

airsafetyman said...

I believe over half of Cessna's Citation series production is to foreign owners. This probably includes the Mustang, which does have EASA certification, unlike some other airplanes who currently are practically confined to the state of Florida.

Ringtail said...

Stan

This topic is somewhat stale. Can you post a new one?

421Jockey said...

A-S,

Apparently you don't look at Flightaware. Florida is becomming less and less the center of operations for the EA50. Have you checked the Midwest and the West Coast lately?

I have always tried to be objective on this blog even though I am an Eclipse owner. However, your (and others) constant inane bantor is really amusing as I am flying at FL390 exceeding all performance guarantees.

I admit that I have more than a few IOUs to go, but every day the $1 million that I spent looks more and more like the best aviation value that I could ever have imagined.

Even at $2 million (or 3) nothing comes close.

Now everyone blast me on the IOUs. This the only thing you have left.

ex-421

Turbine Power said...

Airtaximan: "7 EA500's vs just 2 C510's right now...poor Dayjet"

Poor Airtaximan. It obviously really bugs you that the Eclipse is succeeding and DayJet is flying over a hundred flights every week. That must really irk you.

Perhaps you're afraid you're a soon-to-be EX-airtaximan?

airsafetyman said...

"Have you checked the Midwest and the West Coast lately?"

Have you checked the weather lately? Not only do you have no anti-ice or de-ice, you have no anti-skid, thrust reversers, ground spoilers, or ground flaps. You had better stay out of icing and off contaminated runways until the Vernster can re-invent the above.

Black Tulip said...

421jockey,

As a satisfied customer could you tell us about your new ship?

What is the full-fuel payload?

What are the loading requirements to remain within the CG envelope?

How’s the high altitude performance on a hot day?

What’s the range in the mid-thirties… the mid-twenties?

This is just a start. I’m sure you could tell us much more.

airtaximan said...

TP,

did you cut and paste this post from 2 years ago, Ken?

I once explained this to you, so here goes again:

1-they fly very short legs, so they are not competition for me

2- they introduce new people, supposedly, into private aviation, so they could (if successful) help my business....

This has been explained to you before on this blog - I do not compete with them, Avis and Budget do, as well as perhaps GM, Toyota and Mercedes....

If anything, they could help my business.

PS. unfortunately, 100 flights a week does not cut the mustard - 30%empty, flying low and burining a lot of fuel for very short segments... 30% satisfaction rate, and 95% dispatch reliability at an average of around 1/2 hour per plane per day for the fleet. This is a new model - don't fly, don't provide high customer satisfaction, and care if you cancel 5% of your flights unexpectedly.

Unfortunately, I think people will eventually need to know what a real jet service could look like, if there's any positive industry impact from getting people to leave their cars behind and fly Dayjet. Too bad for me.

airshogun said...

Stan said,
kim,

The King's English is not fred's first language, probably not even his third of fourth.


The King’s English or not, the man clearly is a consummate polyglot and a master of communication. He speaks his mind well with concision and a flair of colorful international humor. I like his style and enjoy reading his posts. It’s far more fun and informative than some of the posts that needlessly attempt to criticize other’s grammatical competency. Thanks to Fred’s post, I learn so much about the inner workings on Russian way of doing business. I look forward to reading his future posts as the ETIRC/Eclipse deal further unfolds.

Airshogun

fred said...

hoayo goyzamass , airshogun sama !
domo arigato goyzamass , tané serifu !

(since i believe not lots are familliar with transcript japaneese , specially mine =)

good morning ,Mr airshogun , thank you very much for kind words !

the matter of this blog is quite serious and tough , but it doesn't prevent anyboby to have a bit of humor and a smile on the face ...

you learn something out of my posts = i am flattered !

fred said...

airtaxi...

i couldn't agree more with you ...

i came to private-jet following a flight with a very loosy firm ...

i used to think that it was for rock-star , posh people in need of showing-off and high-standart politicians ...

once i had no choice but to rent a private ...

apart from a messy service with the first one , it make some sens in some situation and is not an "all-over-expense" compare to all over details ( delays , waiting in airports , tiredness , luggages handling , flexibility , etc...)

Shane Price said...

DAX in Paris down 8.5% this morning, already.

Strong chat about a 'major French bank' in serious trouble.

Major exchanges worldwide report many bank shares on 'fire sale'.

The British Government can't GIVE Northern Rock away.

Bush '43 talking about $140 Billion pump priming to avoid recession in the US....

Things don't look good for high ticket items like personal jets.

Or airtaxi startups.

Just an opinion....

Shane

fred said...

shane

quite a good one ...!!

"when eggs starts to be priced as gold , do people eat gold ?"

it'is high-time for lots of personns to come back to earth , just hope the landing isn't going to be so tough ...

but to forecast that one coming , was as easy as shooting an elephant stuck in a doorway ... ! ;-))

there is 2 things in it :

1° most should keep track of theirs BASIC needs ...

2° it's not the first time such nightmare happen , what a good thing as human memory ...!!

but one thing is cracking-up my bottom ; in the land of Archi-Capitalism (London City) that a bank could be thought as being "nationalized" to try (in vain?) not to corrupt the nice little way of life of some having earnings in the +6 digits is .... such a good laugh !!! :-)))

Stan Blankenship said...

From my morning paper:

Adam Aircraft Industries told stockholders in a letter that the company's future depends on two successful financing transactions.

Without them, officials will be forced to liquidate the Englewood, Colorado based company, the letter said.

The first step is to raise $30.5 million by the end of January. It secured $5.5 million of the amount in late December.

"A successful completion of this financing transaction will enable AAI to continue to operate until a second, larger equity financing of at least $100 million can take place on or before May 31," said the letter, dated January 15 and signed by Adam Aircraft chief executive John Wolf.

Stan Blankenship said...

Hawker Beechcraft Corporation Appoints New Director of Media and Public Relations

WICHITA, Kan. (Jan. 22, 2008) – Hawker Beechcraft Corporation is pleased to announce the appointment of Andrew Broom as director of media and public relations. Broom will be an official company spokesperson, responsible for all aspects of the company’s media relations strategies for all local, trade, national, business, consumer and international media. He will also provide counsel and support for crisis management and executive communications.

"We are very excited to have Andrew join our team,” said Jackie Berger, vice president, communications and public affairs. “As our new director of media and public relations, he brings a rich experience in media relations and extensive knowledge of the industry – both critical skills as we continue to strengthen our global presence.”


Most recently, Broom held the position of director of public relations for aircraft manufacturer Eclipse Aviation Corporation, based in Albuquerque, N.M.



The blog administrator is thinking perhaps he should contact the Welcome Wagon Group and volunteer to be the one to deliver Andrew a hot apple pie when he moves to Wichita.

Gunner said...

Gotta give Adam credit for honesty and transparency. Agreed, ED?

The aviation public knows that a startup aircraft manufacturer is a risky venture. We tend to wish the best, knowing we ALL gain from a success and lose from a failure.

But we're understandably insulted when tens of millions are raised from Depositors on a promise that the company knows it won't honor, when a Hail Mary Pass is touted as routine financing, when the loss of a 60 Nation Market is explained as "moving the business forward" and when a company, flooded in a sea of red ink, claims to be dominating a market.

I really don't understand why such a simple concept is so contentious. I hope Adam makes it. For the most part, they've been pretty damned honest.
Gunner

bill e. goat said...

Stan,
Is that Welcome Committe bringing hot apple pie, or tar and feathers?
:)

Gunner,
I think the flaw in Adam's business plan is clear:
The didn't promise to make "508 is 2008" (kind of catchy). Think of all the deposits they could have raked in...

Black Tulip said...

The news sounds like a nice step up for Andrew Broom.

There's an interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal regarding career moves. Academics studied the careers of bank officials caught in the 1980's Texas banking collapse. They found that those who left the ship before it sank did better and were less likely to take new jobs at reduced compensation.

Brings to mind the Vietnam veteran's quote, "We we winning when I left."

WhyTech said...

Stan quoted:

"the company's future depends on two successful financing transactions"

IMHO, not going to happen in this business cliamte.

WT

Ringtail said...

Right now on FA - 10 Eclipses flying - 0 C510s. Strange observation made by someone on here the other day.

Alexa - can you give us the ride report on Dayjet? This critic blog is about to die!

bill e. goat said...

Ringtail,
Your info on 10 Eclipses flying (pretty impressive, I must say) got me to wondering about service issues, and that got me to thinking about fatigue issues.

Somebody posted fatigue testing was going to start _____ (seems like it was sometime last year).
Any news from around the Koolaid Kooler (a.k.a. owner's forum :) regarding how that's coming along?
-Thanks.

Ringtail said...

Mr Goat said "Somebody posted fatigue testing was going to start _____ (seems like it was sometime last year).
Any news from around the Koolaid Kooler (a.k.a. owner's forum :) regarding how that's coming along?"


Mr. Goat - the answer is obvious. It will start next Tuesday

RT

bill e. goat said...

RT,
:))

Stan Blankenship said...

Eclipse Aviation and Hampson Aerospace, Inc. Resolve All Outstanding Disputes

ALBUQUERQUE, NM

— January 22, 2008 —

Eclipse Aviation, manufacturer of the world's first very light jet (VLJ), and Hampson Aerospace, Inc., today announced the two companies have reached a full and final settlement of all claims and disputes.

This will result in the dismissal, with prejudice, of the complaints previously filed in litigation and arbitration between the parties.

The terms of the settlement are confidential between the parties and will not be disclosed.

Niner Zulu said...

I tend to agree with Whytech about the future of Adam. It's pretty grim. Now is not the time to announce you're running out of money.

The company is not making any money, we're already into stagflation and a recession, credit is tight, fuel prices are increasing and luxury purchases are going to be curtailed as consumers trim their spending.

Anyone see the news on Airbus yesterday: "Weakening Aviation Cycle Anticipated. In a worst-case scenario, Airbus could see 27% of its record airplane order backlog canceled or deferred as the aviation industry cycle weakens, Chief Operating Officer for Customers John Leahy told analysts recently.

Airbus and rival Boeing both had record sales years for 2007, but expect airplane orders to weaken during 2008 as airline customers trim their spending, reports CBS MarketWatch. Each company has experienced strong demand over the past several years, and now have order backlogs containing about five-to-six years of production."

I don't believe Dayjet or Eclipse have the staying power to survive a protracted recession.

AlexA said...

+++ PRESS RELEASE +++
Chinese Enterprise Orders 100 Eclipse 500s

ALBUQUERQUE, NM - January 22, 2008 – Hainan Zhong Hong Tai General Airlines LTD announced today the cancellation of all 50 orders for the Adam A700s and placed 100 orders for the Eclipse 500. “Cabin space is important, by purchasing twice the number of aircraft we achieve the same effect” said Hung Sung Lo. “With the imminent demise of Adam Aircraft Industries we needed a backup plan.” “Cabin size is really not that important to our market segment” added Hung Lo Quik. “We can plobably squeeze ten in the Eclipse.”

“We are not proud. We’ll take money from anyone” stated Andrew Broom former Eclipse employee, as he was cleaning his desk. Delivery of the Eclipse 500s are scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2012.

About Eclipse Aviation
Eclipse Aviation is the world's leading very light jet (VLJ) manufacturer, producing innovative, affordable jets that are revolutionizing air transportation. The company created the VLJ category with the design, certification and delivery of the Eclipse 500 -- the industry's first VLJ. Eclipse applies advanced technologies, manufacturing processes and business practices to create high-performance aircraft that cost a fraction of other jets, and provide the lowest cost of jet ownership ever achieved. By changing the value proposition for private jet travel, Eclipse is allowing more pilots to enter the world of jet-powered aviation and enabling a new generation of entrepreneurs to help business travelers move between cities on a quick, affordable and convenient basis. Contact Eclipse at http://www.eclipseaviation.com.

AlexA said...

Gunner said...
"Gotta give Adam credit for honesty and transparency. Agreed, ED?"

AIN said...
"Adam Aircraft’s financial predicament is apparently more dire than the company let on last Thursday.."

Gunner by now you should realize the credit market is tight;) So m uch for honesty and transparency.

Black Tulip said...

“Cabin space is important, by purchasing twice the number of aircraft we achieve the same effect."

Why not order 200 Cessna 172s and have even more aircraft? The Cessnas would actually be delivered.

AlexA said...

Black Tulip said “Why not order 200 Cessna 172s and have even more aircraft?”

They were actually contemplating ordering 300 SkyCatchers but didn’t trust the quality.. Something about lead paint;)

bill e. goat said...

Alexa,
I think maybe they should consider one A380!
:)

Turboprop_pilot said...

Let us have a moment of silence for my $100,000 deposit on an A700. As an unsecured creditor of Adams, I guess I'm alone on this blog for having actually lost money on a VLJ.

Turboprop Pilot

PS My Meridian was found to have corrosion in its magnesium inlet housing during installation of a new motor mount at Sun Aviation. The engine is on its way to a Pratt overhaul facility, so this week has the makings of a really bad one!

Niner Zulu said...

Turboprop_pilot,
Sorry to hear of your loss on the Adam!

If it makes you feel any better, you may be better off by waiting to buy anyway. If prices fall, you'll probably recoup more than $100k buying your next jet. I'm banking on prices of all VLJ's to fall as the recession takes hold later this year & next, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is...which is in the bank for now.

;-)

WhyTech said...

9Z said:

"If prices fall, you'll probably recoup more than $100k buying your next jet. I'm banking on prices of all VLJ's to fall as the recession takes hold later this year & next, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is...which is in the bank for now. "

I strongly agree, and believe that the price weakness will be much wider spread than just VLJ's. In the last two weeks I received an unsolicited offer to purchase my PC-12 for substantially more than I paid for it new more than two years ago. While I was reluctant to part with it, good judgment got the better of me, and the deal closed a few days later. I'll focus on helicopters for awhile until the time seems right to jump back in to the fixed wing market, most likley in a PC-12/47E or possibly a new KIng Air B200GT. It seems quite likley that those with cash in hand will be able to drive some attractive deals over the next 12-24 months.

WT

Stan Blankenship said...

AD NUMBER: 2008-02-04

MANUFACTURER: Eclipse Aviation

SUBJECT: Airworthiness Directive 2008-02-04

SUMMARY: We are adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) that supersedes AD 2007-13-11, which applies to all Eclipse Aviation Corporation (Eclipse) Model EA500 airplanes. AD 2007-13-11 was prompted by reports of loss of primary airspeed indication due to freezing condensation within the pitot system. AD 2007-13-11 requires operational limitations consisting of operation only in dayvisual flight rules (VFR), allowing only a VFR flight plan, and maintaining operation with two pilots.

Since we issued AD 2007-13-11, Eclipse developed a design modification to the pitot/angle-of-attack (AOA) system to eliminate the possibility of freezing condensation within the pitot/AOA system. Eclipse is incorporating this modification during production on Model EA500 airplanes starting with serial number (S/N) 000065. Consequently, this AD limits the applicability to airplanes under S/N 000065 and requires incorporating the modification. This AD also retains the operating limitations in AD 2007-13-11 until the modification is incorporated.

We are issuing this AD to prevent long- term reliance on special operating limitations when a design change existsthat will eliminate the need for the operating limitations.

Incorporating the modification will prevent loss of air pressure in the pitot system, which could cause erroneous AOA and airspeed information with consequent loss of control.

Black Tulip said...

Turboprop pilot,

This too shall pass. We hope you are back in the air soon.

Black Tulip said...

Whytech,

Very nice move. I'd like to drive up and discuss the wings that go round-and-round as well as those that are fixed.

WhyTech said...

BT said:

"I'd like to drive up and discuss the wings that go round-and-round as well as those that are fixed."

I'll buy lunch. Or is it your turn?

WT

Gunner said...

Kinda funny about Adam, in a way. Alexa and Ken, errr TP, can't help but rejoice in their predicament. Reminiscent of one would-be aircraft manufacturer talking of "solace" in the wake of repeated failures on his own company's part. And they call US "Haters". Go figure.

Let's put this in real simple perspective. Adam gets a pass from the Aviation Community for being essentially honest.

Alexa, in her time honored tradition of knocking Adam and Diamond to divert attention from the biggest aviation fiasco in modern history, bloviates:

"AIN said...
'Adam Aircraft’s financial predicament is apparently more dire than the company let on last Thursday..'

Gunner by now you should realize the credit market is tight;) So m uch for honesty and transparency."


However, as opposed to the train wreck in ABQ, it's already been clearly stated:

"Without [financing] them, [Adam] officials will be forced to liquidate the Englewood, Colorado based company, the letter said."

Eclipse, meantime, announced its plans to start producing the plane in the steppes of Russia...and would have you believe it's all part of a "plan", after having failed to deliver a couple hundred million dollars worth of jets it took money for on the promise they'd be produced in July 2006.

This is why Adam gets a pass from the Aviation Community.

This is why Eclipse remains an embarrassment to all of us.

Suggest you go back to the water ingestion problems that have stalled the D-Jet's progress, Alexa. It didn't have any more traction. But, at least to the uninitiated, it sounded like you might know something they didn't.

Or, at the very least, taunt us with your August '07 promise that TP, errr Ken, would be flying his jet by December last.

How's the flying, Ken? Vroom-Vroom.
Gunner

carlos said...

Hi all

The factory in Ulyanovsk that is going to produce the eclipse 500 is called aviastar, at least that's what i have read from some russian news webpages.

I got this from the internet:
"Designed from scratch in the early 1970s to produce a new generation of strategic bombers [though it is not clear just which one], the Ulyanovsk Aviation Production Complex (renamed Aviastar in November 1991 when it became a joint stock enterprise run by its workforce) is said to be the largest aviation production facility in the world and is the newest one in Russia."

More from this (Tupolev) factory here :
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/industry/aviastar.htm

carlos said...

...


and here is the official aviastar webpage in english:
http://www.aviastar-sp.ru/aviastar_en/

carlos said...

this has no end,

is not internet a wonderful thing?

I just found this news from 2005!!!

"Eclipse Aviation is strongly denying a report in at least two Russian publications that it intends to build airplanes there. The stories, one in the Izvestia Daily and one in MosNews quoting the Izvestia report (our Russian's a little rusty and we couldn't find an English version of Izvestia), claim to quote the president of Aviastar, which makes Tupolev airliners, as saying that the plant will be up and running as early as next year. "We will be able to re-equip the plant in six months," Aviastar's Victor Mikhailov is quoted as saying. Despite the matter-of-fact nature of the stories and the widespread use of attributed quotes, Eclipse claims there's not a shred of truth to the reports. "This story is completely false," Eclipse spokesman Andrew Broom told AVweb. "Eclipse Aviation is not and never has been in any discussions or negotiations with anyone relating to Eclipse 500 final assembly or producing sub-assemblies for the Eclipse 500 in Russia."
(http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/briefs/190021-1.html)

So, it looks like this russian thing (plan) has been going on for a long, long time.

This is the best soap opera in the history of aviation. Somebody has to make a movie out of it.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

When did Alexa start writting satire? I thought you were a defender of the faith?

+++ PRESS RELEASE +++
Chinese Enterprise Orders 100 Eclipse 500s

ALBUQUERQUE, NM - January 22, 2008 – Hainan Zhong Hong Tai General Airlines LTD announced today the cancellation of all 50 orders for the Adam A700s and placed 100 orders for the Eclipse 500. “Cabin space is important, by purchasing twice the number of aircraft we achieve the same effect” said Hung Sung Lo. “With the imminent demise of Adam Aircraft Industries we needed a backup plan.” “Cabin size is really not that important to our market segment” added Hung Lo Quik. “We can plobably squeeze ten in the Eclipse.”

“We are not proud. We’ll take money from anyone” stated Andrew Broom former Eclipse employee, as he was cleaning his desk. Delivery of the Eclipse 500s are scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2012.



This is pretty good. Stan should put this up as the new article header. This is the sort of satire we normally only see from Black Tulip.

I have always thought that the satirical posts were the best.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

"This story is completely false," Eclipse spokesman Andrew Broom told AVweb. "Eclipse Aviation is not and never has been in any discussions or negotiations with anyone relating to Eclipse 500 final assembly or producing sub-assemblies for the Eclipse 500 in Russia."

Here is a picture of Mr Bloom for those who can't picture him.
http://www.dangerouslogic.com/images/baghdad_bob_wings.jpg

His first job as an L.A. lawyer
http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/r/3/baghdadbob_cochran.jpg

airsafetyman said...

Aviastar has an interesting website at "aviastar-sp.ru". Apparenty they are an offshoot of Tupulov and are currently doing modifications to the TU-204 at Ulyanovsk. The airplane is about the size of the Boeing 757. One version of the 204 has the Rolls-Royce RB-211 engines.

AlexA said...

Gunner said “This is why Adam gets a pass from the Aviation Community for being essentially honest.” Great line, that’s like saying your daughter, is a little bit pregnant.

Gunner it’s nice to see that you have become the spokesperson for the entire Aviation Community. With you ability to spin you should apply for Broom’s old job.

Shane Price said...

Aviastar

Has anyone noticed how few aircraft this company has ever made?

Total production of the 204 series to date is 69, of which nearly a third were built with the RB211.

Which Rolls Royce no longer make....

On top of which, the run was shared with another plant, which claims to have made the vast majority anyway.

The other aircraft produced there was the C-17 'alternative' the AN 124 'Ruslan' the last of which was built in 2004.

Soooo....

ABQ has build more aircraft in one year than their new partner has constructed, EVER.

Sounds like the perfect partnership to me.

If you need to slow production down to almost nothing, that is.

Shane

Shane Price said...

Oh, and European stock exchanges are heading south again. London is down 1.5%, Paris 2% and Frankfort 2.5%.

Dollar also gone down, as the ECB sticks to its guns on interest rates.

Shane

airsafetyman said...

"Total production of the 204 series to date is 69, of which nearly a third were built with the RB211.

Which Rolls Royce no longer make...."

Rolls fully supports the RB-211. The -535 is used on some models of the Boeing 757 and the Tu 204; the -524 engine is used on some models of the Boeing 747-400. The larger RR Trent engine is a development of the -211.

In any case 69 complete airframes is 69 more than Eclipse has delivered.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

The Russian Aerospace industry followed a different philosophy to the west. Design and Production were normally completely separated (which both the EASA and FAA systems are also able to support). Tupolev was a design buro, as was Antonov and Iljuschin. They concentrated on design, prototype development and possibly certification (Any one have any insight how far certification was centralised or whether the design buro's had delegated authority for their design approvals?).

Political decisions drove which aircraft factory was assigned the manufacture of a specific design.

You must not forget that the Tu-204 was just approaching completion (first flight 1989 - russian certification 1995) when Gorbachov pulled the plug on the whole communism nonsense.

That any of them ever got built is the bigger surprise. Plenty of those factories resorted to building wheel barrows, milk carts or whatever else they could sell.

I believe that the Tupolev 204 also never reached JAA/EASA certification. It was applied for and is probably slowly progressing in fits and starts, but the rumours are that the Russian industry are not big on demonstrating compliance.

I can see where the FAA had it's challenges with Eclipse. Working with the big established western companies is easy in the sense that they have (generally) internalised quality and set higher internal goals than the airworthiness codes minimum standards. They know the game and work in a transparent manor, having learnt it is better to open kimono, and negotiate the special conditions than to pretend you comply with every paragraph and then face a huge delay when the certification team discovers the non-compliances (or the AD's if they are discovored after the fact).

The ex-Soviet aviation industry has proven adept at scaling down production. Antonov Design buros prototype shop seems to be still producing the AN-124 at very low volumes.

Stan Blankenship said...

From the morning paper and sad news for the blog administrator who makes his living from sheet metal airplanes:

New Learjet 85 to have composite fuselage. The company will team with Grob Aerospace and use their composite system of hand layup graphite sheets and a foam core.

Beech uses a $5m machine to wrap graphite tape over steel mandrels for the Horizon and Premier.

It is yet to be announced, but look for Cessna's new large jet to have a composite fuselage to be built by Spirit (formerly Boeing Wichita) using the composite system developed for the 787.

fred said...

ok , so for carlos , shane and some others ...:

aviastar in Ulyanovsk : the company is SUPPOSED to make transformations for a tupolev , but as not mentioned ion web-site , the tupolev factory isn't there anymore ...

after the firm's bankruptcy , the control was taken by Price Waterhouse at 50 % (if my memory is not set on autofaillure ...

what did happen ?? don't know , but if someone is interested enough , it shouldn't be very dificult to find out ...

at the same time , one as to take in consideration that the russian govt. took some times ago the decision of regrouping all aircraft expertise and facilities under a single managment (can't remember the new name ...)

this decision was mainly aimed at building a new aircraft ( called RRJ ) in order to scrap all airplane from soviets times off the sky ...
(well , if you never took a flight on 30+ years old soviet-time russian regional airliner , well you better be in a hurry , with the advice to kiss earth farewell when you take-off and to do it again when (should i write IF ) you eventually land ...:-)) )

as for the plant itself , yes aircraft facilities in 1991 have been drained out of any cash ... most did whatever to try to survive , in most cases , a faillure ...

the Ulyanovsk plant was supposed to become a farm producing milk and a packaging unit for the said milk ...

if it didn't happen , it is because cash to buy enough cows to make sustainable couldn't be raised ...

so the one million $ question is : if they couldn't buy cows , how could tey service and transform aircrafts ?

beside , if tupolev has (more or less ) still an existence on its own , it is not producing anything anymore in Ulyanovsk !

as far as i know , the tu-204 has a production of nearly 0 or very few ( in the west , i think ONLY TNT courier bought some , but sold them soon afterwards because of lack of conpetitivness compare to boeing or airbus )

a other version of the TU-204 the TU-204-300 was supposed to be made in 2004/2005 (?) but i am not sure the project has been dropped for the profit of RRJ ...

anyway (and still if my memory works ) the TU-204-300 was (is) develloped and buid by an other firm and NOT in Ulyanovsk (aviadvit ou aviadvitgagel or avia-whatever , can't remember ... sorry )

but if EAC DENIES be in tals with russians ...

it is a published info by ETIRC ...

so what is a firm controlled by an other one , the two firms having to completely opposed version on the same topic ??

the farce looks weirder and weirder , day after day ...!! ;-))

fred said...

freedomfortarts

no ....

russians industries are not as bad as you write ...

ok , you have to explain them for quite some times ...

ok , you got to watch them like a pot of milk on a stove ...

ok , you've got to control any and everything they have been close enough to just have a glance on ...

but if you prepared to extensively train them , watch them , control them , and are prepared to NOT pay them if things are wrong ...

they are ok ! :-)))

carlos said...

hi fred

i think you got it wrong,
the news about eclipse denyig talks with the russians is from 2005, 3 years ago.

I put it here so that you can see that the aviastar deal is not something new, eclipse thoght about it 3 years ago!!!

fred said...

ooouuuppsss !!

i got it wrong ...!

veuillez m' excuser ... carlos !!

but anyway , one of the thing remarquable ...

it still the same story :

2005 or 2007 or 2008 ...it's still = "next tuesday" .... ;-)))

(few things aren't changing so much with time ..)

Shane Price said...

ASman,

I agree that RR fully support their engines.

All I said was they don't MAKE the RB211 anymore.

As a teenager, I spent a very informative few days skiing in the company one of the designers. Very nice man, who's name escapes me after 30 odd years.

Fred,

Here in Ireland we have the same problems, with the 'Russians' who work for us here. And we are told that the ones who emigrated are better educated (they do speak English) and that want to get ahead.

Makes you wonder what those left behind are up to....

Shane

bill e. goat said...

Turboprop_Pilot,
Sorry that Adam is having a rocky road now- I hope they secure financing, or better yet- somebody buys them and continues. I really like the extra room the Adam has.

Given the current market conditions, maybe Adam, Eclipse, and Sino-Swearingen should merge. That would provide a comprehensive and complimentary product lineup. At any rate (better not use that expression around ‘ole one-a-day Rayburn :), I hope you get your Adam, or an enhanced bargain on something else.

Carlos,
Thank you for digging up the 2005 new articles. (That had come to my mind too, but I remembered that too, but couldn’t find the articles).

As I recall, that was later dismissed as rampant speculation, poor translation, and misinterpretation / extrapolation of someone buying two E-500’s. Ha- guess not. You’re right, it really is “the best soap opera in the history of aviation- “As the stomach turns”- or is that “world turns” :)

Stan,
Sorry for the double whammy with the Lear85 and Cessna Large-whatever-they-call-it. (Maybe if Moller ever takes off...) Seriously, I don’t get the composite thing. It served to be a fantastic money pit for Raytheon- I’m not sure how the Boeing experience is going. Hopefully the rest of GA is booming enough to bring in some good biz for you.

(...How’s your Russian, or Chinese, or Portuguese, or ...Used to be money talked. Now it just walks- or swims- offshore...).

Move Over Moller

(ah, did someone else notice a particular flying thing-ee for sale on Ebay...any, ah, similarity in business success, you suppose ???)

Fred,
I think there are lots more “Tuesdays” to come from our friends in ABQ!!:)

Stan Blankenship said...

goat,

I'm not hurt specifically by these composite wet-dreams, it is the trend that bothers me. All these company's elbowing each other to see who can be first over the cliff.

airsafetyman said...

"I agree that RR fully support their engines.

All I said was they don't MAKE the RB211 anymore."

The Boeing 747-400F is still in production and the airplane can be ordered with P&W 4000, GE CF-6, or RR-211 engines.

fred said...

shane ...

well ...

about russians ...

they are not that bad !
after i've been working with them for quite a period of time , i find them to be quite nice ...!

but you have to try to understand theirs past : for something like 70 years they couldn't make any choices or decisions in theirs life apart what type of bread they would eat for dinner (and then it was quite good ; they had bread ...)

any other things was out of the reach of theirs will-power ...

they used to go to work but not FOR work , only because the socialist state decided one day that no one was allowed to be unemployed and thru everybody had a job ...
so basically talking the ones arriving a bit late for work were meeting at the entrance the ones who was leaving a bit early ... all the others ones were too busy chatting to think about leaving at that moment ...!!!

so , even if they are very far from being perfect , they have at least a good thing (in my opinion) they are VERY keen on learning , you just have to fight with all the bad old habits ...!!

as for the one who left are better than the ones who stay ...??

i wouldn't be so sure ...

it used to be that way , but not anymore ...!

with wages for "good and skilled" workers going-up with a 2 digits factor per year , the old situation is reversed ...
i would allmost say that the ones leaving Russia now for anything else than studies abroad , professional training or stuff like that .... are not the best ones !

today in Russia if you are clever and ready to work , not even hard but cleverly, you can succeed with a much better rate of success than in the west ...!

it is directly related with the fact that still LOTS of russians have kept the "soviet time" mentality (normal : lots have known that for most of theirs life , the young ones have been raised by parents with this kind of mentality and Russia has experienced at the end of soviet union the most ruthless form of capitalism that can exist ... at the same time , when young russians watch on television such a piece of shit as Paris Hilton coming to Moscow and giving interviews to local news , what they see is the truth wrapped into the fantasy WE , in the west , did put in theirs head = How come such a piece of shirt as her , without any talents , without any brain , without any beauty (in the streets of Moscow , dress as anybody and not rich , she wouldn't be notiied , locals gals are much prettier) without any kind of morality can be so famous , rich and travelling ?? for most the answer is = Because of the western way of life ...!!

so you see , when a russian is thinking about leaving his/her country , most of times , it's because he/she is not really keen on working too much or would prefer to have the "butter but keep the money to buy it"

it's quite normal , what do you think can go in "between the ears" of a russian when they see an american from idaho or iowa (or from wherever , no differences ) coming to russia , spending in a week what they get in a year to make the godess he trying to catch forget about his 20 years too much , his baldness and that he should be on a diet for the next 15 years ...

sorry for disgressing ..!!

fred said...

billy ...

your link ?

is it past , present or future (for EAC)

there is lots of similarities :

it looks small ..
it is useless for what iwas meant to be ...
it is from a bankrupt firm ...
it is sold on E-bay ...

what i don't understand is : why do you call moller ?? E399 would have been enough !! :-)))

fred said...

stan ..

do not worry too much ...

you'd be retired before all issues on
"wet dream" will be sorted out ..!!

John said...

Dayjet Week 16 Utilization

Dayjet flight hours jumped to 144 on the basis of a very active training loop program.

CRAFT … FLIGHT … Hours
DJS150 … 18 … 14.3
DJS152 … 13 … 13.6
DJS145 … 19 … 13.5
DJS147 … 13 … 11.3
DJS148 … 13 … 10.7
DJS141 … 13 … 10.5
DJS161 … 10 … 8.5
DJS134 … 9 … 7.3
DJS146 … 9 … 6.5
DJS126 … 8 … 5.8
DJS115 … 7 … 5.5
DJS132 … 3 … 5.2
DJS153 … 7 … 4.3
DJS136 … 6 … 3.7
DJS139 … 3 … 3.0
DJS142 … 4 … 3.0
DJS156 … 4 … 2.7
DJS158 … 4 … 2.7
DJS109 … 3 … 2.1
DJS110 … 4 … 1.9
DJS160 … 3 … 1.6
DJS116 … 2 … 1.6
DJS131 … 3 … 1.6
DJS163 … 2 … 1.4
DJS135 … 1 … 1.0
DJS130 … 1 … 0.9
Total … 182 … 144

Departure … Hours
(KGNV) … 47.0
(KBCT) … 38.3
(KTLH) … 12.0
(KAPF) … 11.2
(KISM) … 4.9
(KSEM) … 3.0
(KLAL) … 3.0
(KAGS) … 2.7
(KSAV) … 2.6
(KSFB) … 2.5
(KLEE) … 2.0
KPNS) … 2.0
(KSGJ) … 1.9
(KDTS) … 1.7
(KHXD) … 1.5
(KSRQ) … 1.4
(KVLD) … 1.4
(KOPF) … 1.3
(KOCF) … 1.0
(KAUO) … 0.8
KBQK) … 0.8
KPIE) … 0.8
(KCTY) … 0.7
Grand Total … 144.2

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